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Weekly Fundamental Preparation of Currencies

  • #41
  • Mar 30, 2009 4:18pm Mar 30, 2009 4:18pm
eg trendline breached
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  • #42
  • Mar 30, 2009 4:26pm Mar 30, 2009 4:26pm
Stocks tumble as automaker plans are rejected yahoo

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Major indexes fell about 3 percent Monday, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which lost about 254 points but finished well off its lows. Financial stocks weighed heavily on the market amid worries that banks will need fresh injections of capital.
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The March rally was fed by economic and corporate reports that were starting to look more encouraging. Now, investors are taking money out of the market ahead of economic numbers this week and first-quarter earnings in the weeks ahead, fearing that disappointing data, including the government's March employment report on Friday, will set the market back.
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  • #43
  • Mar 30, 2009 4:35pm Mar 30, 2009 4:35pm
gu 1hr pf chart..
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  • #44
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:03pm Mar 30, 2009 5:03pm
USD Higher, Boosted by US Auto Troubles, Risk Aversion ibtimesfx


GBP

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GBP traded lower pressured by rising risk aversion and concern about deteriorating UK economic outlook. Falling global stock markets increased risk aversion. Equity markets were hit by the Obama administration's rejection of additional bailout money for US automakers Chrysler or GM and report that Spain intervened to support the banking system for the first time since 1993.
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CBI reports that they expect the UK financial services companies to shed up to 25% of the workforce in Q2 09. Threat of more job losses in the UK on the heels of last week's report of a downward revision in UK GDP generates concern about deepening UK recession. UK Q4 GDP contracted at the fastest pace in 29 years.
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The trade showed little response to report a slight improvement in UK mortgage approvals. UK January mortgage approvals rise to 38K from 32K in January. This week's main focus will be the release of UK manufacturing PMI on Wednesday and services PMI on Friday. These reports are expected to show a slight improvement but the data series will remain near record low.
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GBP price direction will continue to be closely correlated to the direction of equity markets and investor reaction to the BOE's effort to try to stimulate growth through quantitative ease. So far the impact of the Bank of England's effort to boost money supply through the purchase of guilt has been mixed. Last Wednesday's Gilt auction failed to attract demand. Friday's Gilt auction was better received. GBP price direction will also key on G-20 efforts to coordinate fiscal spending to boost global growth.
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On March 31st, March GFK survey will be released expected at -33 compared to -35 last month. On April 1st, March manufacturing PMI Index will be released expected at 34 compared to 34.7 last month. On April 3rd, March services PMI will be released expected at 43.3 compared to 43.2 last month.
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The technical outlook for GBP is turning negative as GBP rallies were rejected above 1.4600 last week and GBP breaks support at 1.4200. Look for key GBP support at 1.3845 the March 12th low with resistance at 1.4360 March 27th high.
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  • #45
  • Mar 31, 2009 9:51am Mar 31, 2009 9:51am
crude oil tanked. dow back above 7500.
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  • #46
  • Mar 31, 2009 9:56am Mar 31, 2009 9:56am
gu fending off the downtrend but struggling to reach the 3/8.
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  • #47
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:32am Mar 31, 2009 10:32am
Forex Daily Commentary actionforex
GBP/USD

The Pound appreciated against the Dollar after GfK Consumer Confidence came in above analyst expectations and British retailing giant Marks and Spencer reported an improvement in earnings. The GBP/USD proceeded to experience considerable strength from our medium-term downtrend line, and is fighting towards our 2nd tier uptrend line as we type. The bounce in the Cable is encouraging considering it happened comfortably above our 1st tier uptrend line. However, the rally is fueled mostly by oversold conditions since we don't view the above-mentioned news as game-changing. Additionally, the up-bars and supported by insufficient volume. U.S. financials are still in serious trouble, applying downward pressure on equities. Considering the financial industry comprises nearly 25% of Britain's GDP, another setback in U.S. financials would likely have negative repercussions for the British economy. Britain and America are coupled, and both central banks are implementing quantitative easing. Hence, it's difficult to place one's full weight behind an uptrend in the GBP/USD. Regardless, the near-term uptrend is beating out our medium-term downtrend for the time being. Therefore, we will have to see how the trend plays out with the much-anticipated G20 Summit approaching. As with the EUR/USD, we anticipate the GBP/USD staying true to its positive correlation with U.S. equities. Fundamentally, we find resistance of 1.4326 with additional resistances hanging at 1.4362, 1.4398, and 1.4437. The 1.45 area will serve as a psychological barrier with 1.40 acting as a highly psychological cushion. To the downside, we see supports of 1.4283, 1.4240, 1.4208, 1.4159, and 1.4100. The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4298.
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  • #48
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:41am Mar 31, 2009 10:41am
New Zealand Dollar Short Head and Shoulders Pattern

ibtimesfx
New Zealand Dollar Short Head and Shoulders Pattern

-EURUSD resistance at 1.34
-AUDUSD top not yet confirmed
-NZDUSD short term head and shoulders top
-USDJPY continues to threaten resistance
-USDCHF support at 1.1350

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...9Biastable.gif
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  • #49
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:51am Mar 31, 2009 10:51am
notes-

  1. equities rebound dow above critical 7500 level for time being
  2. crude oil below 50

  1. pound shakes off downtrend but trades flat

  1. The Pound appreciated against the Dollar after GfK Consumer Confidence came in above analyst expectations and British retailing giant Marks and Spencer reported an improvement in earnings. rally is fueled mostly by oversold conditions
  2. UK financial industry comprises nearly 25% of Britain's GDP, another setback in U.S. financials would likely have negative repercussions for the British economy. Britain and America are coupled, and both central banks are implementing quantitative easing. Hence, it's difficult to place one's full weight behind an uptrend in the GBP/USD.

Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #50
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:30am Mar 31, 2009 11:30am
Chart of the Day - 3/31/2009 – EUR/GBP ibtimes



3/31/2009 "" EUR/GBP "" Price action on EUR/GBP, a daily chart of which is shown, has formed yet another triangle consolidation pattern. This currency pair has recently been relatively reliable with regard to forming and breaking these types of consolidations. Although triangles are most often considered continuation patterns, eventually breaking out and continuing in the same direction as prior to the consolidation, they can also often serve as reversal patterns. In any event, a breakout of the triangle in either direction is a potential trading opportunity. If this triangle becomes a continuation pattern by breaking to the upside, price should first target major resistance around the 0.9500 price region, a significant prior support/resistance level. If this triangle becomes a reversal pattern by breaking to the downside, price should first target major support in the 0.9100 price region.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #51
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:36am Mar 31, 2009 11:36am
eg 1hr pf
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  • #52
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:57am Mar 31, 2009 11:57am
uj dow 4hr pf chart

  1. uj uptrend 8/8 = psychological level 100

  1. dow uptrend above key 7500 level and just above 4/8 closing below the 4/8 will not be good for bull scenario

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  • #53
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:34pm Mar 31, 2009 2:34pm
crude oil rebounding..
probably do to the spark in equities.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #54
  • Mar 31, 2009 4:33pm Mar 31, 2009 4:33pm
Fed Would Act Against Dramatic Dollar Fall
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The U.S. dollar is likely to keep its position as the leading reserve currency and a sharp devaluation of the currency is unlikely, the OECD's chief economist Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel said.In an interview as the thinktank released its new economic outlook, he said the dollar's recent decline against some other currencies would help the economy but that he did not think U.S. officials would accept a dramatic shift.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #55
  • Mar 31, 2009 5:36pm Mar 31, 2009 5:36pm
A Tight Range And The Approaching G20 Meeting May Offer A Quick GBPCHF Range


UK – It is perhaps appropriate that London will host the G 20 summit on April 2nd as the UK has been pegged by many to be the worst performing industrialized economy in 2009. This means that the British economy and its currency stand to benefit the most from a proactive outcome that spreads the burden and responsibility of a financial rescue evenly across the major economic players. Coming to such an agreement will be very difficult however. Tangible policy points that point to a coordinated effort would beat the odds and give the sterling a fundamental boost. Otherwise, hope for a near-term recovery from the nation’s deep recession will be put off. Looking at outside of the G20 meeting, there will further be a substantial round of event risk to cross the wires throughout the week – though its impact on price action will be skewed by the presence of the summit. Of note over the coming week, we have the nationwide consumer confidence figure to gauge consumer health. For the best measure of growth though, the PMI service, manufacturing and construction numbers will give a broad view of growth.

Apr 1 PMI Manufacturing (MAR)
Apr 2 G20 Summit in London
Apr 3 PMI Services (MAR) GMT08:30 AM
Apr 7 Industrial Production (FEB)
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #56
  • Mar 31, 2009 5:50pm Mar 31, 2009 5:50pm
gu trading in our little channel
gj trading in steady uptrend
new sessions open - round 2 here we come
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  • #57
  • Mar 31, 2009 5:57pm Mar 31, 2009 5:57pm
au in an over-steep uptrend
crude failing to get above 50 with box resistance at ruffly 49.76 and support at 48.10
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  • #58
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:22pm Mar 31, 2009 6:22pm
The Day Ahead Asia Pacific: Japan Tankan, Australian Retail Sales

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The headline index for large manufacturers is expected to fall to -55 from -24, its lowest level in 33 years. If the index surprises to the downside and falls below -57 - a possibility recognized by several economists - it will hit its lowest level on record.
According to George Worthington, economist at IFR Markets, the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government are unlikely to act on the results of the survey.
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Later in the session, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release Australian retail sales. Economists expect sales to fall 0.5%, against a 0.2% gain in January.
Meanwhile, the ABS will also release Australian building approvals.
Economists at UBS said they expect “building approvals to rebound after prolonged weakness.”
The consensus is for approvals to climb 1.5% in February after a 3.7% decline the month prior.
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  • #59
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:25pm Mar 31, 2009 6:25pm
The Day Ahead Europe: Euro Zone Unemployment, Manufacturing PMIs

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“Figures are likely to reveal that euro-zone unemployment has continued to rise at an alarming pace,” economists at Capital Economics wrote in a research note. “The labour market downturn has already become the most severe in the region’s history, with unemployment rising by 1.2 million in the past six months alone.”
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  • #60
  • Mar 31, 2009 6:27pm Mar 31, 2009 6:27pm
The Day Ahead North America: U.S. ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing Survey

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“We expect ISM to have a slight uptick in March, but remain squarely in recession territory. The long run trend, however, is down and the index remains at levels last seen since the early 1980s,” economists at Wachovia said.
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The ADP employment report is scheduled for release earlier in the session. Economists expect the report to show a 663k decline in employment following a 697k drop in February. Nonfarm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), due out on Friday, are expected to show a loss of 658k jobs compared to a 651k loss in February.
The problem with the ADP employment report is that the estimate has “often differed substantially” from the BLS’s first official estimate, economists at JPMorgan Chase said.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
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