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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #3,281
  • Apr 4, 2007 10:42pm Apr 4, 2007 10:42pm
Quoting turk87
Check out the double top the Eur/Chf.
The tops aren't at the same level on my chart, and they're somewhat rounded, not really "tops", but it could still be a short signal... I'll add this one to my watch list, thanks for the head's up...
  • #3,282
  • Apr 4, 2007 11:31pm Apr 4, 2007 11:31pm
Confirmed RT on audusd.

Market looks extremely bullish on this pair.

Short : 0.8181

So my tp is to 8 ema 0.8168 for mere 13pips profit.
S/l is above spike high today, 0.8215.
Considering R/R, you might say this trade should not have been taken.

The guys who made big profit with this spike start feeling like taking profit before holidays, I hope.

Good luck to you all !
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  • #3,283
  • Apr 5, 2007 12:26am Apr 5, 2007 12:26am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi citsagos,

reread the pdf...exits are made at MA's, TL's, Fibs, etc. Depends on the trader's unique style. Also, Break Even levels are usually decided by the above. Rule of thumb, is try to bank a few pips around 20, move to BE on remaining and scale out based on your analysis of levles. Looking over past history and papertrading them is a good way to get the feel of what works for you.

Wishing you all the best in your trading endevors.

Thank you very much for the answer. I hope you people don't mind if I ask over the ma settings because my MA's look bit different from the last picture.

1. 365 Ema
2. 200 SMA
3. 89 SMA
4. 21 EMA
5. 8 EMA

These are taken from the PDF but maybey there has came out newer version of those MA's

Thank you.
  • #3,284
  • Apr 5, 2007 4:04am Apr 5, 2007 4:04am
Hi Phil/all,

I went yesterday evening long on cable because it found support on the 21 EMA and MACD gave T/C signal.

Now the MACD gave a short signal on the last candle on goes further on. Does that mean we have to exit the position?

Thanks in advance, regards

Chandsen
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  • #3,285
  • Apr 5, 2007 4:12am Apr 5, 2007 4:12am
Hi Chandsen,
just my two cents: I would not consider going into any deal as far as GBP is concerned, due to the most important news of the month being released in 3 hours (I noticed you entered the trade more hours ago, but the market tends to be really sleepy when the big news is about to be released).
However, if I were you (being already in), I'd just tighten my SL before the news. That way (if you're not stopped out before the news) you're giving yourself a chance, that in case Bank of England hikes the rate, you're on the good side of the market. If not, you'll just be stopped out.

Good luck.

Quoting chandsen
Hi Phil/all,

I went yesterday evening long on cable because it found support on the 21 EMA and MACD gave T/C signal.

Now the MACD gave a short signal on the last candle on goes further on. Does that mean we have to exit the position?

Thanks in advance, regards

Chandsen
  • #3,286
  • Apr 5, 2007 5:44am Apr 5, 2007 5:44am
Quoting chandsen
Hi Phil/all,

I went yesterday evening long on cable because it found support on the 21 EMA and MACD gave T/C signal.

Now the MACD gave a short signal on the last candle on goes further on. Does that mean we have to exit the position?

Thanks in advance, regards

Chandsen
Hi. I will close it only because of the news coming out. Interest anouncement
  • #3,287
  • Apr 5, 2007 6:36am Apr 5, 2007 6:36am
Quoting DireXiv
Short at 1.1587 coming off upper triangle tl with price level right above it and 1 four hour candle closed to show lower high round on macd. 1-2-3 candle pattern is showing, but not confirmed if it does, it will be a very nice trade for about 75 pips.

1st tp: 1.1571 for 16 pips at lower triangle t/l and 21 ema. It's with the trend according to the 89, but the 8 and 21 have crossed and pointing up to the 89, so it's a potential "countertrend" from my thinking.

2nd tp: 1.1516 above the even lower t/l established a ways back and above the next price level. For 71 pips about where the 1-2-3 would end if it confirms.

s/l: 1.1621 above the 89 and price level for a risk of 34 pips R:R is low to the first, but looking for break out.

We'll see how this works this time. Looking for a break out lower, but have the 1st tp within the existing triangle. Will have to wait till next 4 hour candle close in.... 4 hours to try the aud/usd, and eur/usd, and eur/jpy
Dire, thanks for your insight on these pairs, i shorted aud$ too early but still made some pips, i bailed out because of the psychological thing of going for the all time highest thing. One question i have is with your triangle how did you know it would break short? Thanks Dire and it good to see you back
  • #3,288
  • Apr 5, 2007 7:23am Apr 5, 2007 7:23am
Quoting DireXiv
Short at 1.1587 coming off upper triangle tl with price level right above it and 1 four hour candle closed to show lower high round on macd. 1-2-3 candle pattern is showing, but not confirmed if it does, it will be a very nice trade for about 75 pips.

1st tp: 1.1571 for 16 pips at lower triangle t/l and 21 ema. It's with the trend according to the 89, but the 8 and 21 have crossed and pointing up to the 89, so it's a potential "countertrend" from my thinking.

2nd tp: 1.1516 above the even lower t/l established a ways back and above the next price level. For 71 pips about where the 1-2-3 would end if it confirms.

s/l: 1.1621 above the 89 and price level for a risk of 34 pips R:R is low to the first, but looking for break out.

We'll see how this works this time. Looking for a break out lower, but have the 1st tp within the existing triangle. Will have to wait till next 4 hour candle close in.... 4 hours to try the aud/usd, and eur/usd, and eur/jpy
Dire, I was studying the 123 pattern and the usd/cad pattern like you said. You are so right. It happened - you should have your 71 pips. One more thing I learned. thanks buddy.
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  • #3,289
  • Apr 5, 2007 9:45am Apr 5, 2007 9:45am
Hi Ramrocket.

Is the 1-2-3 candle pattern just another name for a double top?
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #3,290
  • Apr 5, 2007 9:52am Apr 5, 2007 9:52am
Quoting SimonK
Hi Ramrocket.

Is the 1-2-3 candle pattern just another name for a double top?
Dire definition of 123 pattern:
The 1-2-3 is when in an uptrend (reverse is true for a downtrend), the price action keeps getting higher and higher in a zig zag fashion, i.e - each high is higher than the previous, and each low is higher than the previous, then you get a high that is lower than the previous high.

From the MACD formation it is a double top/double bottom.
  • #3,291
  • Edited Apr 6, 2007 12:47am Apr 5, 2007 10:32am | Edited Apr 6, 2007 12:47am
Quoting ramrocket
Dire definition of 123 pattern:
The 1-2-3 is when in an uptrend (reverse is true for a downtrend), the price action keeps getting higher and higher in a zig zag fashion, i.e - each high is higher than the previous, and each low is higher than the previous, then you get a high that is lower than the previous high.

From the MACD formation it is a double top/double bottom.

i could be wrong, but i think this 1-2-3 pattern just failed with eur/usd shooting up..

could you please reply with a graph, DireXiv? thanks in advance!
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  • #3,292
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:50am Apr 5, 2007 10:50am
I didn't , but from what I've seen the probability is there when it hits a tl and then gives at least 1 closed 4 hour reversal candle. I also like to see the big separation of the 21 and 8 ema's. Just trying to keep it simple. Unfortunately, I missed my 1st tp by 1 pip while sleeping, so I'm still in it. It's retesting the upper tl again. since it's weathered the storm well so far, I think I'll be ok... but we'll see what happens next.

Quoting O'Zeeke
Dire, thanks for your insight on these pairs, i shorted aud$ too early but still made some pips, i bailed out because of the psychological thing of going for the all time highest thing. One question i have is with your triangle how did you know it would break short? Thanks Dire and it good to see you back
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #3,293
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:50am Apr 5, 2007 10:50am
Thanks for letting me know, the failure and what a 123 is
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #3,294
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:53am Apr 5, 2007 10:53am
My chart showed a slightly lower high, but almost a double top, and the MIG showed maybe closer to a double top... but that doesn't really matter too much, the rules for each are about the same, it just affects your profit target which one shows slightly.

Quoting SimonK
Hi Ramrocket.

Is the 1-2-3 candle pattern just another name for a double top?
The 1-2-3 finished on the previous downtrend on the e/u and worked very nicely. After that was just a game of resistance.

Quoting Pipsi cola
i could be wrong, but i think this 1-2-3 pattern just failed with eur/usd shooting up..
btw, double tops and 1-2-3's only really confirm themselves after they close below either point 2 or the valley on an uptrend.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #3,295
  • Apr 5, 2007 11:13am Apr 5, 2007 11:13am
Hi guys I am watching this pattern on gbp rb. Looks like a great potential trade since macd rb is on the trend line. will wait for a few more hours.

what do you think?
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  • #3,296
  • Apr 5, 2007 11:13am Apr 5, 2007 11:13am
I think we should be careful not to add to many complex thing to Phillip's method and the thread, we really should double-check if an "improvement" really improves. And I think I remember Phillip writing that he like his method because of its simplicity.
I just mean that in general, not referring to any specific improvement.
I hope you understand what I mean.
  • #3,297
  • Apr 5, 2007 12:17pm Apr 5, 2007 12:17pm
Quoting tradeigel
I think we should be careful not to add to many complex thing to Phillip's method and the thread, we really should double-check if an "improvement" really improves. And I think I remember Phillip writing that he like his method because of its simplicity.
I just mean that in general, not referring to any specific improvement.
I hope you understand what I mean.
I'm sorry, I don't understand what you mean...Are you saying the rhthym of the market and price action?

Please clarify.....I'm a little dense

Thanks,
pips
  • #3,298
  • Edited 4:51pm Apr 5, 2007 4:49pm | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting ramrocket
Hi guys I am watching this pattern on gbp rb. Looks like a great potential trade since macd rb is on the trend line. will wait for a few more hours.

what do you think?
RB hasnt formed on my chart, only half of it and then its not very deep. I remember Phillip saying be careful when its in the first 0.0015.

Also triangle has formed ready for a breakout.
Note, it is Easter holiday on Friday in the UK, so there wont be many London traders around for non-farm payrolls. So US traders will determine direction tomorrow. Sell pound???

Just my tuppence-worth, and I'm normally wrong
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If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #3,299
  • Apr 5, 2007 8:03pm Apr 5, 2007 8:03pm
Round top forming on the Eur/Usd.
Also at the highest levels in 2 years. Could see a nice pull back.
Is there anymore news coming out tommorow?
I'm going to enter short once this bar closes.
  • #3,300
  • Apr 5, 2007 8:12pm Apr 5, 2007 8:12pm
Quoting turk87
Round top forming on the Eur/Usd.
Also at the highest levels in 2 years. Could see a nice pull back.
Is there anymore news coming out tommorow?
I'm going to enter short once this bar closes.
NFP is big news tomorrow and Unemployment rate.
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