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  • #1,381
  • Mar 30, 2009 4:00pm Mar 30, 2009 4:00pm
Quoting AstonDan
My continuing fascination/struggle with USDCHF continues. For those of you who read over the weekend, i've been calling this pair short for weeks and nothing has happened.

Strat pointed out that if it ain't going south, my analysis is WRONG and it doesn't want to go/can't go.

Today, we're looking at a DBLHC (using the Sunday bar) and price is closing above the DAILY 20. I have S/R at 1.1500 (i'm using round numbers now).

My thought is to place a Buy Stop at 1.1525 (above today's high and my S/R line), for a possible run upto 1.1700. With today's...
""Strat pointed out that if it ain't going south, my analysis is WRONG and it doesn't want to go/can't go.""

We need to qualify this Dan. This was only based on WHERE we were at (huge support AND BOSS 50) and WHEN, March 19 to 30. Oh wait, I think I hear Bob Dylan singing.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,382
  • Mar 30, 2009 4:06pm Mar 30, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting AstonDan
Did you mean hammer or shooting star Strat? If you do mean a hammer you really are confusing me!

DBHLC has failed to materialise and the Shooting Star forming now makes sense as a trade (to me at least): a short below today's low /DAILY and BOSS 20 @ 1.1430. First target at 1.1300 to close half and move stop to BE.

HOWEVER, if i was looking at EURUSD i'd also be leaning on the bearish side ALTHOUGH it did fail to break through my S/R at 1.3100 today so could be lining up to make a run north!?

From long to short in 20 minutes? i'd better just...
Wow, you really do READ what I write - so there are two of you now! Pretty soon I'm going to have to find another way to test you. Yes, it is a "shooting star" type - don't forget Bond though!

""From long to short in 20 minutes?"" This is exactly WHY you should NOT look at a Daily chart until after NY close
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,383
  • Mar 30, 2009 4:31pm Mar 30, 2009 4:31pm
""There isn’t anything that you can’t face as long as you accept it, embrace it, and work with a group of experienced friends who care about your success.""

I wish I could take credit for this but I can't. It has just been written in a newsletter by a guy who wrote a fictional story about a trader in which there is another fictional character which describes me to a "T"!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,384
  • Edited 4:47pm Mar 30, 2009 4:35pm | Edited 4:47pm
Cable.

I'm not so sure about the 'floater'? Look at the Yens? Have they finished going south yet? Could gbpyen drag Cable up? USDCHF looks weak with the dly S/Star so it may point to $ weakness?

It may be worth an order above the hammer top and the 20 / 50 MAs are nestling together. If these BO to the north there could be a resumption of the smaller up trend from the hammer on 11 Mar 09. The current hammer is on the 50% and 61% retrace from the last hammer AND the 50&61% Fib from the low on 23 Jan to high on 9 Feb -so double Fib confluence. Plus -The downtrend line from the dailys could now be acting as support (as shown)

All in all I think a long order above the MAs is sound and if the 'floater' points to being a continuation bar then the order is protected by the MAs?

Historically the Yens have rallied in bull markets (equities) due to low interest rates - but now most of the world has low interest rates too. Could the market already be factoring in inflation and the fact cable rates may have to rise??

I know, stuff the funnymentals - trade what you see on the chart. Just my musings....
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #1,385
  • Edited Mar 31, 2009 1:14am Mar 30, 2009 4:42pm | Edited Mar 31, 2009 1:14am
This hammer has me confused; it could be signalling a move higher.

I have a rising channel from the end of January, which today’s wick has kissed also rejecting a S/R level @ 135.70

The close is at 50% level of the last move up and 23% of the move starting at the end of Jan

However my concern is the close is below the 20 who is completely flat, as is her boss (also above price)

So a mixture of bullish & bearish sentiments. Am I missing something or is this similar to the cable PA of Dans’ analysis a little earlier?

A couple of other things:
the stop size is way way way too big to interest me any further at this point (perhaps an inside bar Tuesday could lower the risk, particularly if it sits in the top 1/3rd & closes within 10% of its high)
however the eurjpy story posted by The 'Strat-O-Master' over the weekend could imply that this gbpjpy has also reached a climax for this particular trend run?

I'll watch to see what happens over the next couple of days
Paul
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  • #1,386
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:02pm Mar 30, 2009 5:02pm
Hello Paul
The bottom line of this trendline has produced some really reliable up moves for me before but the problem this time is we have a very bearish weekly hammer and now this bullish daily candle.
I am not sure what happens when they fight but Strat mentioned choppy tops in the yens this week in post 1344 I think.
I am sure Strat will have more to say ...
Nicola

Quoting PaulKing
This hammer has me confused; it could be signalling a move higher.

I have a rising channel from the end of January, which today’s wick has kissed also rejecting a S/R level @ 135.70

The close is at 50% level of the last move up and 23% of the move starting at the end of Jan

However my concern is the close is below the 20 who is completely flat, as is her boss (also above price)...
  • #1,387
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:06pm Mar 30, 2009 5:06pm
Well i call those bars "floaters" or "gap pins".

Ive seen them work and fail. i dont play them.....rather wait for something a little more boring.......g


Im pleased chf/yens still going...had fun with her majesty didnt we.....g
  • #1,388
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:07pm Mar 30, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting strat
""There isn’t anything that you can’t face as long as you accept it, embrace it, and work with a group of experienced friends who care about your success.""

I wish I could take credit for this but I can't. It has just been written in a newsletter by a guy who wrote a fictional story about a trader in which there is another fictional character which describes me to a "T"!

Thanks Harvey Winklestein...
  • #1,389
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:27pm Mar 30, 2009 5:27pm
testing 1 2


Man thats so funny.....i got a golden strat......i love it.......lets play Rock n roll!!!!

Johnny B Goode?
  • #1,390
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:38pm Mar 30, 2009 5:38pm
What was the story on that loss, wanna share bro or do you still have a bit of a stinging rimmer on that....g


a little ice?
  • #1,391
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:39pm Mar 30, 2009 5:39pm
I got a few PMs on my EURJPY trade from lurkers who I see trolling the threads I occasionally take a look at . You know the type, those who post


“Yeah, I agree with that. When I did it blah, blah, blah…………………….”

For some reason they think posting useless tripe on every thread and forum going qualifies them to be “watchdogs” or “super traders” or "legends" and then they “discreetly” ask questions via PMs which proves they know as much about trading as our two Yorkshire Terriers!

Also, for our regular posters, unless it is on a subject which I have said to only PM me on, please ask all other questions on the thread. It doesn’t matter how silly or stupid you think the question may be, go ahead and ask. If you never ask, you will never learn.

The reason for posting all your questions, thoughts, worries etc., on the thread is that we all learn from each other. As long as we share the information and help others in a positive and constructive manner, we will all move forward in our trading education.

As you should know by now, I don’t reply to lurkers and trolls either on the thread or by PMs (unless I can get a kick out of it.)

Back to the PMs. They asked something like, “If you knew it was going to be such a good trade, why didn’t you post it on the thread?”

So, the equally stupid answer is “To keep all the lubbly jubbly to myself!”

As I have mentioned a few times, I am only interested in trends and the major swings. I want to trade the swing high down to the swing low and Vicky Verka (Did I tell you I once new a girl called Vicky? Well, she....... …….you almost got me going then!). Trading from support to the next resistance doesn’t thrill me anymore (The Thrill is Gone – B. B. King).

When I see a price reversal bar after a trend (the longer the better), I jump in to position myself for the trend in the opposite direction. This is a high risk area and so I trade reverse position price action to keep me in or get me out until I see the signs of a trend change. I am about as good at calling tops and bottoms as I was at calling the weather in England.

Once I see the trend change, I start looking for other signs to tell me if it’s a trend or consolidation. Then I look for signs to tell me something about the trend. I have always been a "looker" - in fact I've been told I'm a "good looker".

I am an eternal trend optimist – I look to enter a trade in the hope that it turns out to be another multiple yearly salary trade.

I am frequently stopped out of trades, sometimes with 100 - 200 pip losses as I hold on, but these are so small relative to what is at the end that they are not even worth subtracting from the total.

It has taken me several years to become successful at this so don’t think you can read it once and then do it (Amin are you reading, understanding?).

I had a “light bulb going on” moment in 2005 when I recognized the 3 different and distinct areas of change within a reversal and development of the next trend. Then I realized I needed 3 different and distinct strategies for each area. Then I realized I had to go against all the rules and release the “rebel” in me if I was to go from an ordinary trader to a “bit better” trader.

If you look at my EURJPY trade, those 3 areas are clearly evident and for those who are struggling to see them, look for my clues. (Elementary, my dear Watson).

But I DO remember telling you this was a good trade – how many times did I post about this pair that “It keeps on going up until it stops going up”?

Maybe next time you will read, listen AND understand.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,392
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:50pm Mar 30, 2009 5:50pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Cable.

I'm not so sure about the 'floater'? Look at the Yens? Have they finished going south yet? Could gbpyen drag Cable up? USDCHF looks weak with the dly S/Star so it may point to $ weakness?

It may be worth an order above the hammer top and the 20 / 50 MAs are nestling together. If these BO to the north there could be a resumption of the smaller up trend from the hammer on 11 Mar 09. The current hammer is on the 50% and 61% retrace from the last hammer AND the 50&61% Fib from the low on 23 Jan to high on 9 Feb -so double Fib confluence....
These are all very good and sound observations, Grimweasel.

Where the hell does Grimweasel come from - I have this mental picture of you and it's NOT pretty.

See my edit to Dan's post - I have a small position buy stop above the 20.

Are you after Dan's new badge?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,393
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:53pm Mar 30, 2009 5:53pm
dude i swear to god...when you put up the charts.......beautiful.

The set up didnt "jump" out at me but i got different eyes.

After you posted...i saw....Sweet georgia brown.....g
  • #1,394
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:56pm Mar 30, 2009 5:56pm
Hi to Team Strat

Just checking my charts and although several hammers around, just checking for more confluence..back soon Nicole
  • #1,395
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:59pm Mar 30, 2009 5:59pm
Hi Gang
My take on the USD/CHF, the weekly bar seems to be a doji close on my feed, and finding resistance off a 61.8 fib. The daily is right between three MA’s hovering around a strong S&R line and a round number 1.1508.

I think I see an inverted head and shoulders(Trend continuation?) So I would wait for a break out of the shaded box with a good PA bar. Still learning patience on this daily time.
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Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #1,396
  • Mar 30, 2009 6:05pm Mar 30, 2009 6:05pm
Euro/Yen
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  • #1,397
  • Mar 30, 2009 6:12pm Mar 30, 2009 6:12pm
Quoting PaulKing
This hammer has me confused; it could be signalling a move higher.

I have a rising channel from the end of January, which today’s wick has kissed also rejecting a S/R level @ 135.70

The close is at 50% level of the last move up and 23% of the move starting at the end of Jan

However my concern is the close is below the 20 who is completely flat, as is her boss (also above price)...
You have got it spot on, Paul. Good lad. There is a big chunk of analysis missing though - support and resistance. It will soon be banging heads with a MAJOR resistance can you see it?

Also, be a little careful in drawing channels - they can trick the sub-conscious into thinking the wrong things. If you were to draw the channel correctly, you would need a compass - can you see why and what it is telling you?

Don't forget the meetings going on this week in addition to watching USDJPY for Yen pairs direction. A small position for a move up to resistance would seem OK.

Remember that support and resistance is part of price action

Good job, Paul
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,398
  • Mar 30, 2009 6:17pm Mar 30, 2009 6:17pm
Quoting Baba G
Euro/Yen
I should ideally have got out on that shooting star but I was just doing my "Dr. Joe" stuff - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I just don't like getting out of good trades - I like the "Queen" to take me out.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,399
  • Mar 30, 2009 6:24pm Mar 30, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting strat
I should ideally have got out on that shooting star but I was just doing my "Dr. Joe" stuff - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I just don't like getting out of good trades - I like the "Queen" to take me out.
Of course we cant go at her at the same time she may become a little over whelmed....

No you do your thing.........For me a shooting star like that is time to withdraw....but you went in earlyer so you had more to play with....lasted a little longer......nice
  • #1,400
  • Mar 30, 2009 6:27pm Mar 30, 2009 6:27pm
Hi Nice candle but trading into Boss 50 & through R at 86.50 and bounced off a previous TL drawn. The BOSS had a negative PB, but traders today have pushed back north. Too near the MA & trading right into R; therefore I shall keep an eye on this one if it breaks tomorrow we could be north or a test and back south.
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