Weekly Fundamental Preparation of Currencies

Using various news sources to discern (definition - showing insight and understanding) the news of any currency and not excluding other methods to evaluate a currency or currency pair. I have a few sources that I'll cite and perhaps excerpts from their articles presuming that's allowed. Some will be popular cites and some might be lessor known. All I care about is pertinent information and hopefully quality - I'm always looking for new links too. Of interest will be any economic event (such as what is scheduled on the economic calendar), analyst opinions, and forex fundamental articles. You may also speak of technical analysis or systems just do not slander anyone including the articles and always show respect. If someone is offending block and/or report their post and move on but try to work together. Back objections with facts not with heated arguements. Please do not use this post to mislead others - the objective is for us small traders to earn a buck and there's plenty of money to go around in the system for smart traders. If your a big trader I have no problem with you posting or reading here providing you trade with us and provide incite when posting. Lastly but not leastly have respect for other peoples homeland and choose friendly sounding words when making discussions without any hidden messages or references that may sound offending. In other words be prudent and show class. I feel we can better share ideas this way and work more efficiently. I'm ready when you are.

recited:
-economic event / economic calendar
-analyst opinions
-forex fundamental articles
-combined fundamental and technical analysis
-any useful information that pertains to the weekly direction of a currency pair
-trading systems, posting charts, indicator posting, any useful tool is encouraged including correlations to other markets
-stay on topic and show respect for each others including article references
-any currency pair or currency may be referenced although most will likely stick to the majors do to the liquidity - I personally trade the aussie, greenback, yen, and the pound but I wouldn't stop myself from placing a trade on another pair if there were a good opportunity and I followed it long enough to trade wisely

economic calander daily fx

it looks like the dollar and the euro will be a huge focus this week. japan also has notable economic releases out. i think right out in the front the week will be dominated by talk of against the dollar as a stable currency and of course the euro rate decision.

daily fx has the dollar as bullish but article says to expect volatility...
Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

Dollar Trend May Be Redefined By G20 Meeting And NFPs

- Technicals show the dollar on the verge of either a major breakout or trend revival across the majors

-what will be the primary fundamental driver for the dollar

that's really the question we have for any currency in any giving week is what will be the fundamental driver for the week or drivers if there's a lot of data out and confusion. sometimes it might be one piece of data that drives the market or a cluster of data. what we need to do is build a theme for the week by using our resources online and try to look ahead far enough to build a good strategy for the week. also important is the price action to the event and weather or not the fundamentals are able to shift the technicals.

-what will be important
-what will the market dismiss
-weekly theme
-weekly strategy based on theme
-price action to event, if fundamental shift is able to change the technicals

Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates


Upcoming Meetings -- Monetary Profiles

European Central Bank- Thursday April 2, 2009 Market expects a -50bps cut in the 1.50% refi rate.
ECB likes to tighten policy but not to ease policy.
Recent E-Z inflation data argues for a March cut.
ECB has renamed QE as �unconventional measures�.

Reserve Bank of Australia- Tuesday April 7, 2009 Market expects a -25bp cut in the 3.25% Cash rate target.
Australia unlikely to eventually move to an effective zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
RBA has been very aggressive recently on interest rate cuts.
Economy hit by slowing global demand.
Inflation not an issue.

Bank of Japan- Thursday April 7, 2009 BOJ target rate (0.10%) already virtually at zero. No rate cut is possible.
Japan invented Quantitative Easing.

Bank of England- Thursday April 9, 2009 Market expects a -25bp cut in the 0.50% repo rate.
The Bank of England could eventually move to an effective zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). QE is now effectively in place.
The BOE has become very aggressive recently on monetary ease after dragging its feet easy on.
Keep an eye on the BOE vs. ECB rate spread. The GBP is more comfortable with a positive spread vs. the EUR.
Inflation not issue; economy very slow.

scope of the g20 event
Group of 20 summit April 2 in London - bloomberg
Leaders of advanced and emerging economies are closing ranks behind plans for tougher rules on financial markets to prevent another collapse like the one that wiped out much of Wall Street. A global approach to regulation has been gaining momentum ahead of the Group of 20 summit April 2 in London. U.S. President Barack Obama, U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown and their G-20 counterparts aim to merge their national blueprints for strengthened regulation into a united front to rein in hedge funds, derivatives trading, executive pay and excessive risk- taking by financial firms.

Powerful Chinese Banker Angry at Dollar Performance
Chinese Banker Aims to Diminish Dollar yahoo
Boldly stated, Zhou--backed by Russia, Brazil and India--wants to break the dollar's hegemony in global finance. In a paper grandly called "Reform the International Monetary System," Zhou has called for the creation of an international currency unit that he admits will require "extraordinary political vision and courage." He suggests that we start with a blend of the dollar, pound, yen and euro--the so-called Special Drawing Rights (SDR) created by the IMF in 1969 that borrowed a concept first recommended by famed economist John Maynard Keynes.

US Stock Market: 2 Likely Scenarios For The Next 3-4 Weeks dailymarkets
This is the second week in a row that investor sentiment is neutral. While there is nothing unusual about this, there are two scenarios that will likely play out over the next 3 to 4 weeks.

In scenario #1, the market and current intermediate term price cycle will top out when there is extreme bullish sentiment (i.e., bear signal). To attract more bulls the equity markets will need to be trading meaningfully higher.
In scenario #2, the rally will likely churn along for the next four to six weeks before rolling over. In this case, dips will be bought by those late to the party; marginal new highs may be seen, but in the end, the rally will fizzle and it will be tough to make money.

Dollar back on upswing on troubles abroad yahoo


On Friday, the German finance minister issued a warning that the euro would be threatened if euro zone countries took on too much debt, Yu said, and that inflation could be on the rise.
Five countries -- including the U.K., which is not in the euro zone -- have budget deficits greater than allowed by the European Union.
In Britain, economic output contracted 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter, more then previously thought, said official statistics.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Commerce Department said consumer spending edged up 0.2 percent in February, as expected -- the second straight month of increases. Personal incomes fell, however.
The dollar has recovered somewhat from its beating of the past two weeks over the U.S. government's plans to inject trillions into the money supply.
Last week, the Federal Reserve said it would buy up to $300 billion worth of long-term Treasurys and $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. Markets worried that pumping money into the system in that manner could trigger inflation, devaluing the buck.

Euro May Fold Under ECB Cuts And A Building Recession dailyfx


Fundamental Outlook for Euro This Week: Bearish
-German business confidence drops to a 26 year low – support for a recovery waning
-European manufacturing and service sector activity rebounds slightly…but from record lows
-Euro’s late-week decline suggests dominant downtrend may have been revived

(perhaps a longer term theme with short term consequences)
A global affair, the market will likely forgo its immediate concern for any other market drivers until the Group of 20 summit is concluded and the full extent of their plans are announced on Thursday. Ultimately, the aim is that all economies would benefit from a global effort to turn the world-wide recession around and stabilize the financial crisis; but some will benefit more than others. So far, European leaders have committed less to their regional economy than the US, UK or China. This has been a point of contention for the IMF, US President Barack Obama and UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown who have all called on the Euro Zone to commit more of their budget to financial stimulus; and all have been rebuffed. Everything else being equal, if the global economy started to turn around today, the Europe would be in a great position with relatively less money tied up in deficits and less of their financial system in the hands of the government. However, if leaders do cave to these pressures, then the potential for a quick rebound will be lost.

(event risk - rate decision / g20, europes recessionary pressures)
With the G20 meeting and ECB rate decision both due on Thursday, that leave a lot of the week open to other fundamental swells. Of course, in the lead up to the aforementioned event risk, the response to more mundane event risk will likely settle. When removed from these two releases are removed from the equation though, we can see a significant amount of data that can help define the next leg of Europe’s recession. Euro zone sentiment readings (consumer, business, economic), final readings on sector activity gauges, employment, inflation and retail spending will provide a clear bearing for 1Q GDP.

British Pound May Remain Under Pressure As Fundamentals Weaken dailyfx


Fundamental Outlook for British Pound: Bearish
- UK Inflation Unexpectedly Rose In February to 3.2%
- Retail Sales Fall To Lowest Level Since 1995
- U.K. GDP Contracted By The Most Since 1980




Sterling/dollar has found support at the 50-Day SMA at 1.4266, a break below the technical level could lead the pair to test 1.400. The 100-Day SMA capped the Pound’s gains midweek and if bullish sentiment should return the level may remain formative. Until we see a clear break above that level downside risk will remain for the pair.

pfchart

Nice idea for a thread! I've added this to my reading list.

thanks

Thanks for the thread and for the sharing of info/insight, E!
I'm sure it'll be a good learning opportunity and very useful
for many people - no doubt it'll be a very active thread.

Very good tread ,thank you for starting it

thank you very much for the support. i'll try to keep fresh post as time permits.

gu pf 1hr

still in downtrend.. slight bounce near the 2/8 murrey line.

Great idea for a thread, england33.
I hope there will be lots of participation.
I've flagged it & I'll stop by often.

Gook luck

gj pf 1hr.. bounce off murrey 1/8

thank you petero.. much appreciated!

Morning Market Recap: U.S. Dollar in Focus After Overnight Gains dailymarkets

"""The U.S. dollar has broken through a six-day range against the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. According to currency strategists, the selloff was initiated when investors moved out of the euro and into U.S. dollars.
..........
Currency strategists from Citigroup released a report Friday morning saying they have liquidated their long EUR/USD position. They said they were “disappointed” in the lack of follow-through in the cross following the quantitative measures initiated by the Fed.

“Ahead of the ECB meeting next week, we feel that there is little benefit in staying with the trade in such a directionless market,” the Citigroup economists wrote in the report. “The strategy of selling ‘QE currencies’ is becoming more difficult to trade as the adoption of QE spreads through G10 economies. Nevertheless, we expect USD weakness to remain a dominant theme.”
""""