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The Experts Zone: GBPJPY

  • #121
  • Mar 26, 2009 2:58am Mar 26, 2009 2:58am
Quoting forexlion
Lets see if this analysis works:

  1. Thursday today, we just go up to 143.55, or maybe touch the upper trendline at most, then bounce back to 141.70.
  2. Friday, should also be consolidation stage.
  3. NFP next week should give a pin prick to GJ boosting it to 155.87 levels.
  4. Overall, it will be April which will boost GJ.

Okay first target 143.55 completed, lets see if the beast turns back to 141.70 or not.
  • #122
  • Mar 26, 2009 6:41am Mar 26, 2009 6:41am
Well, we seem to have a stalemate here, 4 hour is still in consolidation, 1 hour is doing range swings.

Better to wait till Tokyo.
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  • #123
  • Mar 26, 2009 6:46am Mar 26, 2009 6:46am
Quoting forexlion
Hey bro, you are doing a really good job, I love your analysis.
Thanks bro, your analysis had been spot on too. Nice one
Thank You
  • #124
  • Mar 26, 2009 6:51am Mar 26, 2009 6:51am
This is a follow up to post # 111,112 &116.
Just as expected, dragon is still marching north.
143.xx level is providing the resistance which is currently halting the march towards 145 levels. A break above the current resistance will provide a good entry. A break below the tl12 would have us repositioned. Other than that, no cause for panic if you're holding.
Good luck
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  • #125
  • Mar 26, 2009 7:15am Mar 26, 2009 7:15am
I am anxious to see how the indicator given in this post, draws the lines at 0:30 GMT
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2626596&postcount=106
  • #126
  • Mar 26, 2009 7:49am Mar 26, 2009 7:49am
couldn't resist this temptation of this 4 h trendline. (period: 240)
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  • #127
  • Mar 26, 2009 10:04am Mar 26, 2009 10:04am
Dragon seems to be losing momentum & selling pressure is rapidly increasing.
Bearish close and a severely tested tl12 had prompted me to take out remaining position & wait for 141.7 break or bounce before taking another position. However, with the bearish engulfing pattern formed at yesterday's close coupled with the 6hr scenario, it does look increasingly bearish.
Good luck everyone
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  • #128
  • Mar 26, 2009 6:49pm Mar 26, 2009 6:49pm

  1. We still got the same trendline to break for a new direction.
  2. We still have the same major support 141.70, which now seems will never break.
  3. Moral of the story, go watch your TV, cya next week.
  4. 10% chances of reward over a 90% risk is too high, even for me.

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  • #129
  • Mar 26, 2009 7:09pm Mar 26, 2009 7:09pm
But you can take small scalps between DP and S1, as given on this chart, nothing more for now.
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  • #130
  • Mar 27, 2009 3:20am Mar 27, 2009 3:20am
Lets see how this channel works from here, do we bounce back, or go down further.
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  • #131
  • Mar 27, 2009 7:40am Mar 27, 2009 7:40am
This is a follow up from post #127.
Dragon is now trading fully below 141.7 major support level. USD JPY support level is also being tested atm and a succesful breach should cause this beast to spiral down. However we will wait for the daily close and tl7 to be fully taken out to confirm bearish continuation.
Good luck
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  • #132
  • Mar 27, 2009 10:17am Mar 27, 2009 10:17am
Okay. One trade to take over the weekend. Taken profit from shorts off the table & loaded longs back as it seems the pullback is now complete. Rejection at tl7 with Usd Jpy surviving the support test prompted the move. The weekly rounded bottom is pretty much in play for a longer term bullish outlook. We'll see how the daily close today for a further confirmation. 141.7 level is still key & a break should confirm the bullish continuation. However, should price breach and close below tl7, the trade will be void & closed.
Good luck & enjoy your weekend.
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  • #133
  • Mar 27, 2009 12:53pm Mar 27, 2009 12:53pm
My daily does not close in a few hours, but assuming it closes the way that is shown on the chart will leave us with quite a predicament regarding the possible direction. I am however still leaning towards bullish based on the 6hrly & weekly charts. Guess we'll just have to wait till next week to see the outcome of this.
Good luck & enjoy your weekend.
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  • #134
  • Mar 27, 2009 8:23pm Mar 27, 2009 8:23pm
First, I need to admit, I messed up very very badly in my analysis on Friday, I had the trendlines correctly drawn initially, but to make matters worse, I shifted them one daily candle backwards to get the wrong reading.

Post #122 and 126 ended up being skewed.

4 Hour did give the trend correctly, we are still in bearish mode, and 1 hour is also bearish atm,

So, right now we need to see whether 139.67 holds or not, if it does not then 138.22

Entirely depending on how the 1 hour chart behaves on monday, we could either continue the bearish trend or consolidate some on monday.

141.70 is nowhere in the picture currently, the immediate bias is to see where the bearish move ends.

I was supposed to go short on that lower red trendline break. I admit, I messed up there.
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  • #135
  • Mar 29, 2009 6:39pm Mar 29, 2009 6:39pm
Interesting chart on a cool Monday morning,

but sadly, no trade confirmation as yet.


If 1 Hour confirms then we should be headed into 141.74, but 4 hour is still down, so we wait for a proper setup.

No use jumping the gun.
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  • #136
  • Mar 29, 2009 6:50pm Mar 29, 2009 6:50pm
Well, this 3rd chart says it all

This is a daily chart of the above 2 chart setups, we have already broken the daily T3 line here, forming a bear setup.

Which means, all we need is a break of 139.67 to open up 138.22 first, and if that is taken out then 135.45

But, either way, I will still wait for the 1 hour chart to set a direction first.
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  • #137
  • Mar 29, 2009 7:12pm Mar 29, 2009 7:12pm
Good morning everyone
This is what it currently looks like on my lowest tf. As usual, I am still long till proven wrong. By wrong I mean a breakout where price clears the lower tl (highlighted area). That would be the setup for me to position myself for shorts. However, should price stays this way & respects the current setup, we will not bother contemplating.
Okay good luck
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  • #138
  • Mar 29, 2009 7:20pm Mar 29, 2009 7:20pm
Quoting forexlion
Well, this 3rd chart says it all

This is a daily chart of the above 2 chart setups, we have already broken the daily T3 line here, forming a bear setup.

Which means, all we need is a break of 139.67 to open up 138.22 first, and if that is taken out then 135.45

But, either way, I will still wait for the 1 hour chart to set a direction first.
Alright, its a short into 138.22 first.
  • #139
  • Mar 29, 2009 8:42pm Mar 29, 2009 8:42pm
If 138.22 breaks on a 30 min chart, then I will continue to target further south towards the monthly 61.8% fib 135.45
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  • #140
  • Mar 29, 2009 9:27pm Mar 29, 2009 9:27pm
Quoting forexlion
If 138.22 breaks on a 30 min chart, then I will continue to target further south towards the monthly 61.8% fib 135.45
first mission accomplished

I will wait for a small pullback, then decide what to do next, btw the movie i was watching was good too
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