Hi, please understand that i am at the very beginning of learning PA and this method before i go on, having said that:
On my weekly chart , i have drawn fib retrace from 20 july 2008 to 18 jan 2009. i have a shooting star that pierced the 38 fib level. i have also drawn a minor s/r level at 128.50 ish due to p.a on 9 nov and 28 dec.First question, is this a relevant line, my worry is i'm drawing too many!
I am very very new to FIB levels but going from the big high to low as you have said above, i can see each FIB level having some significance: 61 as S/R in Sep/Oct and the 38 and 50 as S/R in October. As you come to practice Strat's method of analysing, you'll grow comfortable with what WORKS FOR YOU. I don't think i'm wrong in saying there is no ONE SIZE FITS ALL mentality here, but a core set of principles which guide everyone.
Too many lines? Perhaps, but if they show themselves to be significant then they are adding to your armoury - you (me, we everyone) just have to figure out which are significant!
On my daily chart (GMT) i have a DHLC, 6 pip differential. But with a H of 133.85 and L 129.35, that bar is huge, worth 450 pips.
Would it be better to try a fib retrace on that bar, to lessen the s/l if playing it ?
Dan you mention a 50 fib at around 128, i didn't have this on my chart, but if i draw from 2 march to 24 march, i get something similar, am i thinking along the right lines?
I have no interest in playing this bar at the moment as i am always very reluctant to sell INTO THE 20 EMA. I think 128 is an important level: it's a nice round number (important), it was the last area of support (19 March), it was also a PPZ area through December and it is around the DAILY 20EMA.
I think i said in my analysis that EURJPY price 'appears' bearish, but until we see some PA around the 128 level, then there is no trade there for me - once upon a time i would have shorted down to 128 but i am trying to learn to be patient.
The problem i have is with the ma's. If i understand correctly we use them to gauge trend. The 20 is only 75 pips below the DHLC. Below that we have the 100 which is heading up, and below that the 50 heading up. My question is really how much these ma's are to be taken into account, if trying to play the pa setup.
I don't think anyone here uses MA's as a basis to enter a trade (Baba only seems to use The Force and he's streets ahead of most of us) but most of us use them to give a broader understanding of where price is NOW in relation to its PAST.
The 20 EMA is very significant (i think), and you could almost trade short or long based on whether price was above or below it. With that in mind, i would almost never go short on a pair above the DAILY 20 or long below it.
Look back through your charts, how often does price kiss the 20 and then fall away (or shoot up again) - a little like Strat i think, i don't want to jump on every move in the market, i want to try and join the major trends. When you can do this (and i haven't yet), you can begin to manage your stops, scale in and out, and have a jolly good time with little to know risk involved as you have caught the big wave and are riding it until the end.
However, i could be completely wrong
On my weekly chart , i have drawn fib retrace from 20 july 2008 to 18 jan 2009. i have a shooting star that pierced the 38 fib level. i have also drawn a minor s/r level at 128.50 ish due to p.a on 9 nov and 28 dec.First question, is this a relevant line, my worry is i'm drawing too many!
I am very very new to FIB levels but going from the big high to low as you have said above, i can see each FIB level having some significance: 61 as S/R in Sep/Oct and the 38 and 50 as S/R in October. As you come to practice Strat's method of analysing, you'll grow comfortable with what WORKS FOR YOU. I don't think i'm wrong in saying there is no ONE SIZE FITS ALL mentality here, but a core set of principles which guide everyone.
Too many lines? Perhaps, but if they show themselves to be significant then they are adding to your armoury - you (me, we everyone) just have to figure out which are significant!
On my daily chart (GMT) i have a DHLC, 6 pip differential. But with a H of 133.85 and L 129.35, that bar is huge, worth 450 pips.
Would it be better to try a fib retrace on that bar, to lessen the s/l if playing it ?
Dan you mention a 50 fib at around 128, i didn't have this on my chart, but if i draw from 2 march to 24 march, i get something similar, am i thinking along the right lines?
I have no interest in playing this bar at the moment as i am always very reluctant to sell INTO THE 20 EMA. I think 128 is an important level: it's a nice round number (important), it was the last area of support (19 March), it was also a PPZ area through December and it is around the DAILY 20EMA.
I think i said in my analysis that EURJPY price 'appears' bearish, but until we see some PA around the 128 level, then there is no trade there for me - once upon a time i would have shorted down to 128 but i am trying to learn to be patient.
The problem i have is with the ma's. If i understand correctly we use them to gauge trend. The 20 is only 75 pips below the DHLC. Below that we have the 100 which is heading up, and below that the 50 heading up. My question is really how much these ma's are to be taken into account, if trying to play the pa setup.
I don't think anyone here uses MA's as a basis to enter a trade (Baba only seems to use The Force and he's streets ahead of most of us) but most of us use them to give a broader understanding of where price is NOW in relation to its PAST.
The 20 EMA is very significant (i think), and you could almost trade short or long based on whether price was above or below it. With that in mind, i would almost never go short on a pair above the DAILY 20 or long below it.
Look back through your charts, how often does price kiss the 20 and then fall away (or shoot up again) - a little like Strat i think, i don't want to jump on every move in the market, i want to try and join the major trends. When you can do this (and i haven't yet), you can begin to manage your stops, scale in and out, and have a jolly good time with little to know risk involved as you have caught the big wave and are riding it until the end.
However, i could be completely wrong
