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What happens in the real world to cause movements?

  • #21
  • Edited 11:47am Mar 28, 2009 11:34am | Edited 11:47am
no I don't really understand...

in our stock markets they also have tons of books teaching you how to read price action and volume to guess a specific stock's major manipulator's intention.

some few people seem to claim they know it.
I don't...

for people who trade that way, they also invest on having a insider call to increase their chance...

problem happen when there is a too big fundamental change that whole stock market index is running wild, then one stock's manipulator cannot control it either.

I'm not sure what is the case for forex. it is said to be even harder to be manipulated by single bank (except government/central bank/treasuries who print cash), right?
and real critical data leak seems to be harder ahead of time.

investment banks are said to be playing a big role in commodity boom last year. then they died when econ melt down...

I guess even fewer are doing this recently due to finan. regulations,

they could live off well from the difference between realestate debt interest and bank cash account interest right? I don't quite understand banks rely on forex to scalp for profit.

Quoting Leonlorenzo
Does the bold above actually meen anything, or did it just spill out?
  • #22
  • Mar 28, 2009 1:43pm Mar 28, 2009 1:43pm
your desires for information eliminates the most important part of the equation ---- when is MANIPULATION considered MANIPULATION ?

the forex market works on a very TREND DRIVEN, support and resistance model --- always has and probably always will.

that said, you will notice that NEWS can (for a very short time) ALTER the movement within the trend, but LO and BEHOLD, the price returns back to its "mean", almost to the pip, and then continues on its merry way to either support or resistance, depending on where it was heading towards.

at the base of this TRENDING towards support and resistance lie the central banks, and while they will trade for pips in any way they can, they already HAVE THEIR TAKE PROFIT POINTS PRE-SET FOR THE FINAL MOVE.

Using the LRC, which is nothing but parallel trend lines that show historic support and resistance over whatever time period you may choose, SHOWS you the "probable" tp points, especially on the daily and the H4.

nothing hard and fast in the world, and these lines "may" be broken out of, but at the very least one can immediately tell in WHICH direction the banks are moving the currencies, and in the longer term (NOT one day) you will find them to be amazingly and completely accurate.

I grow tired of talking about them constantly and simply ask you to put them on your demo chart and WATCH WHAT HAPPENS.

The proof of the pudding is usually in the eating, but in this case its watching WHERE the price GOES --- it makes for EXCELLENT eating (and profits !)

Im a simple chap, and the high falootin reasons put forth by analytic experts in this field make me a tad sick ---- many a reason is given for a currency reversing, but one look at the LRC and you see it bottomed the night before AND HAD NOTHING ELSE TO DO BUT REVERSE !

AND THIS HOLDS TRUE FOR THE INDEXES ALSO, and since forex is tied to the DOW in many ways, guess what happens there also !

enough of the water cooler talk and on to REAL LIFE trading --- WHAT is it that you cant understand in the enclosed chart cause it tells the WHOLE story of what i posted above.

mp




Quoting billye
no I don't really understand...

I'm not sure what is the case for forex. it is said to be even harder to be manipulated by single bank (except government/central bank/treasuries who print cash), right?
and real critical data leak seems to be harder ahead of time.

investment banks are said to be playing a big role in commodity boom last year. then they died when econ melt down...

I guess even fewer are doing this recently due to finan. regulations,

they could live off well from the difference between realestate debt interest and bank cash...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: real world activity.jpg Size: 670 KB
  • #23
  • Mar 28, 2009 3:29pm Mar 28, 2009 3:29pm
I used to think following bankers was the best thing to do... not after, oh, the last eight months or so.

The ones to look at would probably be individual traders who push a lot of wealth. These are the ones who are "in the loop" who are being dished money from retirement funds, you know, our money? If you could find such a guy to follow... let me know. We can get to know one another where Moe used to live before leaving for the cr#* state of Ohio.

Until said time, I don't even bother trying to understand any longer. I used to follow every fundamental release there was and even then you would have a fast spike in the "suspected" direction, only to be tripled to the other within 15 minutes. The only thing that makes sense is that it doesn't make sense to you, but to the ones who control the market.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #24
  • Mar 28, 2009 4:11pm Mar 28, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting StockKJay
I used to think following bankers was the best thing to do... not after, oh, the last eight months or so.

The ones to look at would probably be individual traders who push a lot of wealth. These are the ones who are "in the loop" who are being dished money from retirement funds, you know, our money? If you could find such a guy to follow... let me know. We can get to know one another where Moe used to live before leaving for the cr#* state of Ohio.

Until said time, I don't even bother trying to understand any longer. I used to follow every...
I am not talking about those bankers (we should form a mob and hand those guys). I am not sure why you had troubles with forex trading over the last eight months, and am sorry to hear about that.

Just follow what they do, and when they stop doing that and start doing something else, just do that. If you do what they are doing, you should be able to pick up a few pips, and when they/you transition to the next thing, you can make a lot more pips. Eventually, meaning every few days, they will move the market quite nicely and if you are right behind them, their draft will carry you to some big pips.
  • #25
  • Edited 9:57pm Mar 28, 2009 5:06pm | Edited 9:57pm
how many times before youse peeps understand ?

heres the chart again --- notice how it moves from support to resistance and then BACK again ?

do you think this is an isolated situation ---- would you like to see 10 years of information per currency pair that ALL look the same ?

while a simple way of seeing what the bankers INTEND to do, (cause you can call them on the phone but its doubtful they will really TELL you) its like the duracell bunny --- it just keeps going and going and going and going and going, for year after year, and if you use a yearly or monthly chart, you can even tell trend changes which are normally associated with "fundamental" data, but in reality was fore told by the chart.

Its just so SIMPLE !!

mp
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26
  • Edited 10:51pm Mar 28, 2009 10:00pm | Edited 10:51pm
what happened to leonlorenzo's post that i just got in my email

ive been robbed of the chance to beat him about the head and shoulders with a wet noodle !

SAD I am !

Oh to heck with it --- ill just paste it here



Does anyone a little more senior have anything to say about my point of view (besides Mpaker)? I honestly feel like Im not the Ignorant one on this thread.

Anyone can buy and sell at any price at which there is liquidity, Nobody gives a hell where the price is on the LRC, as long as the price is attractive to the trader and there is liquidity then they will transact.

well LL, understand that all the LRC shows is support and resistance and thats highly respected in trading circles --- while what you say is absolutely true in theory, FEW traders with knowledge will trade above resistance or they dont remain traders for very long !

Now someone with deep deep pockets "can" spike a price OVER the LRC (resistance) and immediately sell to those chasing the price, but they better be really quick cause its fairly risky and is horribly dangerous to the retail traders who decide to chase the price past the LRC boundaries ! (and you dont remain very popular among the OTHER banks traders if you do that and they DO have their ways of getting back at you)

as i always say, try it before you put it down out of hand --- it just may add a whole new bunch of pips to your pocketbook !

Peglow, please tell me, what should I be learning about the market?

While im not peglow, maybe you should open your eyes to new ideas --- I do constantly and im pretty settled in my ways (BUT not as settled as some, it seems)


mp
  • #27
  • Edited 10:37pm Mar 28, 2009 10:08pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting mparker
what happened to leonlorenzo's post that i just got in my email

ive been robbed of the chance to beat him about the head and shoulders with a wet noodle !

SAD I am !

mp
You sure are.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #28
  • Mar 28, 2009 10:26pm Mar 28, 2009 10:26pm
mparker do you mind telling me where you get the lrc indicator. the only one i can find is the linear regression buffer which is automatic. Also what is the best value to set it at? I trade support and resistance myself and am interested in this indicator. Thanks.

p.s. I notice though that when you say it goes from point to point, what happens when price breaks out of it? like it shows in your image at the end of each channel, because you would end up trading that and have price go total opposite direction.
  • #29
  • Mar 28, 2009 10:47pm Mar 28, 2009 10:47pm
given that breakouts and breakdowns are in the minority of moves that exist, they DO happen of course ---- from a perfectly safe point of view, i teach to take profit at the support or resistance point, and then take it from there in case of violation of the lines. Unless youve got a full fledged breakdown in progress, the amount the price violates the LRC is usually small and invariably its reversal point is signaled by the bollinger bands, which tend to be your FINAL price before reversal.

I use indicators, but NOT for entry and exits (thats the job of the support and resistance overlays and the bols, but rather for STRENGTH of the move and strength behind any coninuation of the move.

using the 5 and 20 day 240 and daily chart, with the s+r overlays that i use, its fairly simple to judge what will happen as trend is created and shown nicely over that time period. Of course, whenever a breakout occurs, we move up to a weekly or monthly or even yearly chart, simply to get some ideas of where THEY position support or resistance and watch to see if it happens, while trading the lower timeframes to be on the safe side.

its not as simple as a few paragraphs obviously, but armed with the information from the above sources and mixed well with decent experience, one can at least set (in the case of breakdowns) support points that will need to be broken --- if they are, you then use the longer timeperiod charts to start setting tp points, based on the new LRC's they will present.

thats the basics, although it requires more work than can be said here, but it works pretty well as far as i have seen.

Left you a few presents down there on the bottom.

enjoy and trade well

mp



Quoting fry2010
mparker do you mind telling me where you get the lrc indicator. the only one i can find is the linear regression buffer which is automatic. Also what is the best value to set it at? I trade support and resistance myself and am interested in this indicator. Thanks.

p.s. I notice though that when you say it goes from point to point, what happens when price breaks out of it? like it shows in your image at the end of each channel, because you would end up trading that and have price go total opposite direction.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip SHI_Channel_true.zip   5 KB | 276 downloads
File Type: zip Support and Resistance (Barry).zip   < 1 KB | 289 downloads
  • #30
  • Mar 28, 2009 11:00pm Mar 28, 2009 11:00pm
ok thanks i managed to find the indicator in your thread and read a little there. I appreciate and understand that the indicator is not right 100% of the time i just wanted to see your view on what happens when it breaksthrough.
Can you eleborate though on what you mean with '5 and 20 day 240 and daily chart'?

oh i see u included the files, thanks a lot. didnt see it before.
  • #31
  • Mar 29, 2009 12:00am Mar 29, 2009 12:00am
i set up a LRC that covers both 20 days and 5 days (makes the 240 easier to read) and gather the trend off of that as it represents very reliable information as to whether we are going up or going down. as you can see from the attached chart, its time period encompasses 20 days, which is usually enough to grab a good trend from

understand that i use 3 trends --- the MAJOR trend as determined by the overall 240 min chart and/or the daily chart, another LRC showing the trend within the overall trend (be it going up or down at that time) and a 3rd, shorter trend, that shows present trend (say on the 15 min chart) within the trend that is within the major trend, similar in many ways to 3 different timeframe charts that may be pointing in different directions at any point in time --- easier to see it than explain it though but the enclosed chart shows 2 trends --- the major and the secondary and if you imagine another lrc WITHIN the secondary that shows the very last downtrend that happened, that would be the third. (just didnt use it on this chart since if the price goes up and reverses, its heading back to the lower support area, so i rarely need it.

mp


Quoting fry2010
ok thanks i managed to find the indicator in your thread and read a little there. I appreciate and understand that the indicator is not right 100% of the time i just wanted to see your view on what happens when it breaksthrough.
Can you eleborate though on what you mean with '5 and 20 day 240 and daily chart'?

oh i see u included the files, thanks a lot. didnt see it before.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: real world activity.jpg Size: 670 KB
  • #32
  • Mar 29, 2009 12:01am Mar 29, 2009 12:01am
I guess a stop/loss placed beneath the major resistance? if it break just stop out.

Quoting fry2010
I appreciate and understand that the indicator is not right 100% of the time i just wanted to see your view on what happens when it breaksthrough.
  • #33
  • Mar 29, 2009 12:06am Mar 29, 2009 12:06am
hi mp:

thanks a lot for the explanation on S/R stop and break-out and how is the role they play during a major movement, I will take some time to watch it.

the chart looks good too for me, however I think it's not 100% guarantee,
if it drops to 1.332 or 1.329 or 1.327 and bounce up end of Friday, there are ways to alter the trend lines a little bit to make it still look like a channel right?
I think we need to watch a few more days to know if it's really a channel like that, or it's basically a clapse out of something unknown.

thanks again for being so detail and patient.

Quoting mparker
your desires for information eliminates the most important part of the equation ---- when is MANIPULATION considered MANIPULATION ?

the forex market works on a very TREND DRIVEN, support and resistance model --- always has and probably always will.

that said, you will notice that NEWS can (for a very short time) ALTER the movement within the trend, but LO and BEHOLD, the price returns back to its "mean", almost to the pip, and then continues on its merry way to either support or resistance, depending on where it was heading towards.

at the...
  • #34
  • Mar 29, 2009 12:29am Mar 29, 2009 12:29am
Quoting billye
hi mp:

thanks a lot for the explanation on S/R stop and break-out and how is the role they play during a major movement, I will take some time to watch it.

the chart looks good too for me, however I think it's not 100% guarantee,
if it drops to 1.332 or 1.329 or 1.327 and bounce up end of Friday, there are ways to alter the trend lines a little bit to make it still look like a channel right?
I think we need to watch a few more days to know if it's really a channel like that, or it's basically a clapse out of something unknown.

presently we can see that 3223 should be hit and since this is a 240 min chart, i cannot tell you if it will bounce FIRST and then come back down without looking at the lower timeframes, which at this time of morning im just not gonna do. but being a 240 chart, a lot of things will happen before this point is reached, which i speak about below.

But I have a tp set for that point, and whether it goes up or down on sunday will not matter, because i know that tp will be hit !

the LRC records "previous" and historical s+r and thats all it does, but by doing so it offers a point at which to take profits, UNLESS there is a support area BELOW the line illustrated by barrys or a bollinger band, in which case on pays attention.

since we ended friday at 5, which is a standard reversal time for the market, I would venture we move UP on sunday, but that overnite the price will return to where my tp is set --- i trade this way because i get lazy at times and my account is certainly large enough to handle drawdowns, so that doesnt bother me in the general scheme of things and if I feel like it, i will simply AVERAGE UP for the expected short to the 3223 area, although by then, the price could certainly have moved based on sundays activity.

the channel is VERY REAL as its nothing more than a record of what has happened to this point in time --- what is intriguing remains for me to study later today and thats where is the price going next, and where is it going after that ?

this i save for sundays, when i can peacefully analyze charts and figure whats ahead, but right now, after that drop, i would figure off the top of my head that "some" sort of retrace is going to happen, just whether its temporary or total i wont know till i sit down to study for a while.

thanks again for being so detail and patient.
enjoy and trade well

mp
  • #35
  • Mar 29, 2009 5:29am Mar 29, 2009 5:29am
http://www.traderinterviews.com/prog...MikeParker.php

Too bad its now closed (only a few days ago) to membership By Tim Bourquin but I have the saved Mp3.
CCI decipherer
  • #36
  • Mar 29, 2009 5:59am Mar 29, 2009 5:59am
The picture speaks for itself!

Lubo.
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If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #37
  • Last Post: Mar 29, 2009 8:58am Mar 29, 2009 8:58am
Someone compiled a list of the biggest-moving news announcements, based on consistency. The usual suspects are there: FOMC announcements, ISM data, etc.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FXCM - The-Most-Market-Moving-Economic-Indicators-for-the-USD (Kathy Kien) 3 pgs.pdf   102 KB | 374 downloads
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