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  • #1,301
  • Mar 28, 2009 4:37am Mar 28, 2009 4:37am
Hi all, i'm sure a lot of you are looking at EUR/JPY so i thought i'd post my GMT charts for your reference and my KISS analysis.

Weekly has a nice shooting star which failed to close above the 131 level (major PPZ on my weekly chart).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyweekly.jpg Size: 89 KB


Daily has an almost DBHLCor BEOB (Thursday's high - 133.91, Friday's high - 133.85). Is this train turning round to come back?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpydaily.jpg Size: 100 KB


We may just see a retracement to 128 support level which is also around a 50% FIB and in the same area as the DAILY 20EMA where it could pick up some passengers on cheap fares before continuing on it's journey north.

However, if price can fall through 128 and close below, then it could have a way to fall down to 124.

Will be sitting on my hands to see what happens at 128.

Will look at other pairs later today. EUR/USD seems to have closed at very interesting PPZ in particular but i haven't been looking at this pair much lately so would like to hear others opinions on that.

Keep on,
Dan
  • #1,302
  • Edited Mar 29, 2009 4:50am Mar 28, 2009 5:04am | Edited Mar 29, 2009 4:50am
Presents from my travels:

A COIL for Nicola, STOPS for Nicole, PLAN for Dan, Gladys Knights for me and THANKS for Dr. Joe

See chart - S&R lines removed for clarity

I wasn’t going to post this as it smacks of ego but it answers many of the questions I get like, “what’s the difference between you and other Price Action/Support and Resistance traders/threads?” etc., etc. This is a shining example of my method, my style of using Price Action/Support and Resistance plus other tools from my toolbox. It is not classic Price Action and I never pretended it was but it works for me and that is all that matters. My style is to look for long runs, I’m not interested in one or two day scalps. So……………………..


ROCK N ROLL ANATOMY OF A STRAT TRADE - EURJPY

I don’t know whether it is still going up BUT it stopped ME going up. Dr. Joe said my last buy would be a loser, which it is, so, STOP BUYING!

Classic hammer Jan21 – Buy Stop above high – not filled (Price below 20 and still steep down slope –see arrow)
IB – Jan 22 – Buy Stop above high – not filled
Neutral doji – Jan 23 – Buy Stop above high – not filled
Bullish IB – Jan 25 – Buy Stop above high –filled
Weak shooting star – Jan 28 – SL below low – stopped out (20 still sloping down)

The Animals are singing “The House of The Rising Sun” followed by the Stones’ singing “Honky Tonk Woman”.

BUOB & HL – Feb 02 – Buy Stop above high – filled
Price closed above 20 – Feb 06 – Bullish – 20 goes flat – see arrow
Bearish Bar (Dark Cloud Cover) – possible double top – SL below low – stopped out
Made HH inside coil
BUOB & HL – Feb 12 – another close above 20 - Buy Stop above high – filled
SL below Feb 12 higher low
Feb 17 - Potential higher low forming coil base line – Buy Stop above 20 – filled
Bullish bar on Feb 18 confirms higher low – price closes above 20 - SL for both orders below swing low
Feb 20 – bullish bar breaks out of coil – Min target = 940 pips – IB – Buy stop above high – filled – 20 turning up – see arrow

Something is happening – Sting is singing “Every Breath You Take”

Feb 22 – price closes above 50 – bullish
Feb 24 – Huge bar – TL drawn
Feb 25 – 20 crosses above 50 - bullish
Feb 27 – Stopped out at TL – Boss 20 coincidence?
March 03 confirms March 02 HL
March 04 – Strong close above BOSS 20 (and you thought you were strong - huh!)
March 05 - Buy stop above highs of consolidation for break out

Feb 27 to March 11 consolidation - flag pattern - Beatles are singing “Nowhere Man”

March 12 – BUOB – buy stop above high – filled – SL below low – 20 is supporting prices

We’re in FAT CITY – throw away all rule books – Everly Brothers keep on singing “BYE BYE LOVE”

March 15 – hammer type bar – buy stop above high – filled – SL below low
March 19 – neutral doji IB – buy stop above high – filled – SL below low
March 20 – TL drawn
March 24 – Strong bearish bar – almost a BEOB – is something wrong? The Beatles are singing “You’re Gonna Lose That Girl”.
March 25 – hammer type bar – buy stop above high – filled – SL below low – I think I hear John Lennon singing in the background “I’m a Loser”
March 27 – Open up charts to hear Roy Orbison singing “IT’S OVER”
March 27 – stopped out (small loss on last trade) BUT close still above 20
Now I’m singing Roy Orbison’s “Crying”.

I LOVE ROCK N ROLL TRADING!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy anatomy.gif Size: 29 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,303
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:13am Mar 28, 2009 5:13am
Quoting Bloom
Amin

I'm not sure. Just looks like it needs to breakout, but I couldn't be sure which way. Four candles ago we had an IB. If you had placed your suggested short order like today you'd have got hit on it then stopped out.

I sit patiently waiting to see something.... saw a few potentials yesterday but nothing stood out.

Bloom
Good lad - exercising DISCIPLINE - waiting for the trade to stand out
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,304
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:14am Mar 28, 2009 5:14am
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Strat and team,

A few pages back i posted asking for your thoughts on how i was trading.

Not my entries or trades, but HOW I WAS ACTUALLY TRADING. I was setting up my charts, analysis, entries etc on daily bars, s/r etc etc, and then moving very quickly once they opened to lock in profit.

This was working for me (profitable) but i knew something was wrong (and yes, i do know how absolutley stupid that sounds in hindsight).

I wasn't in fact trading the daily, i was still in 15M mode.

My GREED and FEAR were causing...
Good lad, Dan. The more you guys open up about the psyche stuff, the better prepared you will be to take it on again.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,305
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:16am Mar 28, 2009 5:16am
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Dan

I can understand how you feel. When I first started I was on the 5min and 15min TF with loads of indicators, watch this cross then when x changes to y enter. I was getting stressed out as I was getting in and out of a trade, when ever I had time to look at my lappy. We've all seen it... I was in a mess. So I stopped ( I was using a micro account so losses minimal), I realised that I needed to educate myself properly. I discovered J16 read and read, demo'd. I then found this thread and I'm growing in confidence each daily, always learning....
Thanks, Nicole. You have obviously found the time frame which works best for you and fits your style. Good girl.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,306
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:18am Mar 28, 2009 5:18am
Quoting Baba G
nice fib....
I thought you said you had difficulty seeing - not surprising with all those grid lines - why don't you get rid of them?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,307
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:22am Mar 28, 2009 5:22am
Quoting AminAS
I missed all the moves today, and took a loss on EUR/GBP. I have some work to do.
What are you doing? There was no PA to signal a trade on EURGBP

I told you - girls were the best fun in high school (not forex) - try making a move on them!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,308
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:25am Mar 28, 2009 5:25am
Quoting Jduester
Just found this thread recently and am in the process of reading it through. Wasn't expecting to find my name/post 23250 in here, but glad it is. The J16 thread has put direction into my trading. Looking forward to catching up on this thread and learning more from you Strat.

Josh (Jduester)
I am different from Jim and J16 so you may get a few "bumps" and "bruises" but the goal is the same - make money.

Please feel free to join in anytime you like - but nothing lower than Daily!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,309
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:29am Mar 28, 2009 5:29am
Quoting elitejets
You have my respect for trading that pair at all. I hate it and I don't think it trends well. I usually avoid it LOL

Get some rest and get ready ...Next week looks like a big week, if my weekly candles stay looking the way they do now. I even have a weekly hammers (pins) on Brent Crude and US crude. That does not happen often!

Nicola
Oooh, Nicola, "hate" is a really strong word - do you really mean that? It's been very good to me in the past - it's just another pair with it's own idiosyncrasy.

Maybe you should try trading Weekly time frame as well - she is a very benevolent BOSS.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,310
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:32am Mar 28, 2009 5:32am
Quoting AminAS
I have some looking to do then. The learning curve is fast, and I think I am caught somewhere in the middle, though I am afraid to pull the trigger. I guess I need some hints to stimulate my mind to see what you guys are seeing better. Sounds like Baba G has a bunch of possible trades setting up, that I sort of see but sort of don't see...
Amin, you are NOT caught in the middle - you are still at the beginning. Until you have read and practiced on thousands and thousands of charts, you are only at the beginning. Unfortunately, we don't know where the end is to truly measure ourselves but we do know where the Path of Learning is and that starts at the beginning. Sorry.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,311
  • Edited 5:44am Mar 28, 2009 5:36am | Edited 5:44am
Quoting AstonDan
Evening boys and girls, hope most of you had a good week, now if you'll indulge me, i've got a question on PA which is confusing me:

My (limited) understanding on how to trade Inside Bars was to wait for the break of BAR 1 either to the upside or downside but i seem to reading more into how you warriors are trading them - eg, that in the right position, they give you an opportunity to get in earlier (cheaper).

This is completely new to me in everything i've read on IB's (entering before the break of bar 1) and was hoping somebody could take the...
Dan, in general, you are right, the IB is a set up bar and you place your order either side of it DEPENDING WHERE it is in the price/trend/range and WHAT it is doing in price relative to the bars around it. OR, you may not do anything at all. With a decreasing number of IBs, if you know the direction, you just keep placing your order above/below them - this gives us our DISCOUNT PRICE.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,312
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:49am Mar 28, 2009 5:49am
Gianni, thank you for all your help with the thread while I was 7 miles high.

I really appreciate it. Thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,313
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:50am Mar 28, 2009 5:50am
Lance, let me know when you do your next revision of the Index so that I can attach it on the first post. Thanks.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,314
  • Edited 6:10am Mar 28, 2009 5:58am | Edited 6:10am
It's week-end and I'm jet lagged (and up early).

On another thread, where I was Stratocaster 59, someone recognised that as being a guitar player,and asked me if I played country!

The ONLY country I like is "Blue Days, Black Nights" by Buddy Holly but that's rockabilly. I do like "Always On My Mind" but only by Elvis and not that old geezer. Although I have to admit to singing "Country Roads" at karaoke but only when suitably laced with liquor and girls!

I do know though, that if you play a Country song backwards, you get your wife back, your girlfriend back, your house back, your car back, your dog back, your cat back, your goldfish back.................

But I DO like Dolly Parton, the country Queen of Plastic
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,315
  • Mar 28, 2009 6:42am Mar 28, 2009 6:42am
At the risk of Lance telling me I'm taking the thread to yet another level................

Thinking of EURJPY and whether it's at the end or beginning of a trend just hit my Memory Recall button. Back in the 90s when we were drawing charts and indicators by hand and I was desperately looking for guidance, I joined a futures trading club. There were no Forums or trading computers then just ads in Stocks and Commodities magazine.

In that club was a very successful lady who was very good on Soybeans, Sugar and Coffee (more memories of Ken Roberts flooding in!), and she had just made a killing on what I thought was a fantastic trend. Although I knew she was very independent and strong and I was an absolute nobody, I made the mistake of congratulating her on her "trend trade". Her reply, in front of everybody was, "Hey little guy, that was no trend, it was no better than sex, - you don't know how long it's going to last or how many inches you're going to get!"

Lesson learned - Stay away from strong, independent, controlling women!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,316
  • Mar 28, 2009 8:08am Mar 28, 2009 8:08am
Quoting strat
Presents from my travels:

A COIL for Nicola, STOPS for Nicole, PLAN for Dan, Gladys Knights for me and THANKS for Dr. Joe

See chart - S&R lines removed for clarity
Strat, this is superb. Thank you.

Dan
  • #1,317
  • Mar 28, 2009 9:56am Mar 28, 2009 9:56am
A stronger US dollar and a drop in the equity markets will help turn this rocket ship around I hope.
These are Brent Crude charts, US crude is similar pattern.
Nicola
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: brent weekly2 nic.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: brent daily nic.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #1,318
  • Mar 28, 2009 10:20am Mar 28, 2009 10:20am
DAILY BEOB closed below S/R at 0.9300 (GMT).

Major support at 0.9150 giving this poor R/R ratio plus a Sell Stop below the the BEOB is selling straight ino the 20EMA.

However, the WEEKLY shows an IB, so is the one of those opportunities to get in at a discount and if price breaks through 0.9150, its next S/R is at 0.8950.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp28march09.jpg Size: 102 KB


What do you think Nicola, still not interested?

Keep on,
Dan
  • #1,319
  • Mar 28, 2009 12:06pm Mar 28, 2009 12:06pm
I have just received this email from FF. I knew nothing about this, so a very big THANK YOU to:

kiwitrader
Xaron
baz
Scrat

and of course, FF

Dear strat,

You’ve displayed trading wisdom and experience throughout your exchanges at Forex Factory, and four of your peers have recognized by vouching for you! To find out who vouched for you, see the “Vouchers” section on your public profile.

To learn more about the Wisdom Vouching System, please read the FAQ: http://www.forexfactory.com/faq.php?faq=wvs

Meeting this four-vouch hurdle means you can now vouch other FF members. With this new permission comes responsibility, as the integrity of the Wisdom Vouching System now rests in your hands. Please read the FAQ carefully to learn more about these responsibilities: http://www.forexfactory.com/faq.php?...q_guidlineswvs.

Congratulations strat on being recognized as a wise and experienced trader, and thank you for your valuable contribution to the FF community!

Sincerely,
FF
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,320
  • Mar 28, 2009 12:45pm Mar 28, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting strat
Presents from my travels:

A COIL for Nicola, STOPS for Nicole, PLAN for Dan, Gladys Knights for me and THANKS for Dr. Joe


ROCK N ROLL ANATOMY OF A STRAT TRADE - EURJPY


I love presents and that one was a gem! I want to be able to read price action like that. More homework for me.
Thanks
Nicola

PS Strat - Where you live I would have thought you would like both kinds of music ... Country and Western LOL!

PPS I don't really "hate" EURGBP but my experiences with it on lower timeframes were not happy ones. Reduced stakes for that pair!
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