Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

Cool. I hope that, in some way, I added to your quiver.

A short from false upper TL break earlier was a good trade - exactly what I was looking for, with maybe a slightly lower close under the TL for added confidence. I closed at the near median on the support zone around 1.3520.

Personally, I need a deeper discount for my longs. I want a dip down to 1.3490 support zone first before I consider, maybe lower.

Thanks for the post, Bemac. I'm an old fart starting this little "career" late in life. I did not have any prior trading experience before setting off on this endeavor about a year ago. I do appreciate all the data, tools and advice that are available at our fingertips. Willing to work for it, and your post actually gives me hope.

Again thanks.
Ed

Quick note... I am finally getting a'rd to indexing some of the posts that have caught my eye over the last few weeks. They can be found at the bottom of Post #1.

I'll eventually add to this list some of the Older Threads and Priceless Posts that I've bookmarked from time to time in my rounds thru the FF basement. This has been one of my Must Do goals for this thread from the beginning

If you have a favorite that Anchored or Turned your trading efforts in some fashion, PM it to me and I'll include it.

Technically, it's the previous highs and lows of a move --> http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/swinghigh.asp

...but the rub is which ones does one use, and you'll get a brawl going over that...

Many folks use the previous days Hi/Lo w/o regard as to if it's any higher or lower than the previous day or days. When PA is stuck in a range for any length of time (like now) that gets somewhat useless imo.

In fact, the only reason I posted the one I did was cuz I just didn't feel like hiding all the stuff on the screen for the shot. I actually deleted that 1hr fib right after posting it. Here's the same pivots but with the fib that I am using, it's from an older High from 2am CST on 3/23 ((3734)). It gets tedious to include the anchors from way back or see when they came from each time on a lower TF chart and then have to explain where that number came from...

You can see how price is actually respecting these levels more than the other one. In fact, like I said the fib on that chart is useless imo, but some people insist that's the way to go... whatever.

So which to use? I look for what I call "completed cycles". I'm not sure I can actually explain that tho. I'll start by looking for a candle wick that is significantly higher and lower than the ones on either side of it over some period of time. Scottyb once suggested using the the Bill Williams Fractal tool ((on Mt4)) until you get a feel for the right swing points. That may help get you started.

If price is trending higher for instance, I'll step back to a previous High that has a significant retracement following it. The same principle for the low swing point if that makes sense. I rarely use the "most recent" one unless it's clear that price "completed" that cycle and has initiated a new one with potentially new dynamics going on...

That's why I step back one Hi/Low point and use the positive and negative fib extensions. I let the fib "grow" that way (again thanks to scottyb for the term) and can better evaluate how price is moving with respect to the levels.

That's the only way I know to use fibs on lower TF's when it's ranging like this. The alternative is step up to a much higher TF and lose the noise inside the channel. You lose the precision of the lower TF's tho if you still want to trade inside the channel. I know many folks just won't trade those TF's until something emerges, and of course that's valid as well.

Hope the book helps...

Huh; All I see are 34 Nipples. Doctor; Doctor! I need you.

Totally Call Your Bride & show her this. You done did good buddy. I can't believe that I missed a few of the Posts you Quoted but I got them Now & that's what matters.

Yowzaa... woke up and thought the Yoorow Zoone had entered the Twilight Zone or something.

I'm pondering the PA inside the pink box and yellow circle this morning while the Wet Cleanup on Aisle 3 is underway... and looking for stragglers. my Powder is dry, breeze from the north, and I'm downwind.

Halfway thru a pot of coffee...

Every single move up hit the UTL except this last one. Ergo, my Other Voices are telling me Big Money anticipated this and pulled the last punch just enough to consolidate their positions (Pink Box). Bears are seeing the finish line in sight with major diagonal S/R lines shattered, but Bulls could be seeing the best Buying Ops since the FOMC news and the Geitner Gaffe, if Gaffe it was...

Speaking of that, I Need to Pause and think about that for a moment..

Moving on... this thing traded mostly within a TL zone in spite of the ferocity of the drop on of all things... News. It has traded perfectly within a Hzl S/R zone as defined by this fib anyway. On the Big Fib ((Support style)) of 2455/3736 it still bottomed 9 pips shy of the 62% level ((3247)).

In other words... I smell old fish here.

I just don't believe the Big Dogs did not have an inkling of that ahead of time. We've all been discussing "How Bad It Is in the Zone" on these forums now for months, and They have access to Info I can only dream about even exists long Before I know it exists.

In other words they anticipated a Reaction to probable news, positioned theirselves accordingly and will do what they do... be Predatory.

The Bull got rocked down to an amazingly accurate S/R level in short order based on News to us but not necessarily News to the Big Dogs. Price is now perfectly positioned to pull a Rocky Balboa here.

I could go on, but you get the point by now. My 2hr fib anchors are a little unorthodox, but they've been working well, and I'll keep them till they run out of gas. Green arrow is still my bias for Right Now... retraces are just retraces until they're Not, and trading accordingly.

I should add that I can allow for another 200 pips down for a full 50% retrace on the Daily which currently converges with the 50ema at 3100ish and not be too out of sorts... I wouldn't hold any shorts thru that as that's not my style, but that's what I'd be watching next if these levels don't hold.

Current low is 3256 and price is 3280/90 as I post, and a Good Weekend all...

No need of too much fantasy to see this 4h chart as a cup and handle formation, lets see if it gets cofirmed in the next week.

Before Bemac ask me to explain to the new folks what the heck is a C&H I post a link to investopedia to study:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp

Sorry for my absense lately, I'm with an EA project with some talented coders and had to setup a board for them, there they can work behind closed doors.

All free time was used for that, I hope it comes out something worthly for the efforts.
I'm not an EA trader, can't even set one up like it should but many folks where asking for a THV robby and I said it's better we make one with my developement group for free before all this system sharks start to sell the system.

Have a great weekend everybody

Hey Cobra... You gotta know I incorporate your system.
Why? 'cause it works.

See you on the 'morrow...

Thanks Bemac, that is the best compliment I can receive.

I like the visual effect of the PA in my system, all indicators available in the net show what happened but not what will happen. But if you have enough screen time on a system you notice the repetition of price action, especially on the THV Trix indicator which also form patterns.

Price did this and the market reacts like that, we see that all days long and we are taking our position based on that knowledge.

Repetition of PA, that’s what we bet on in FX, at least I do, because I don't trust funnymentals.

To know that something is repeating you have to notice and memorize it before.

Good evening everyone,

just dropping by to post my current version of what could be probably going on.
Thursday was a nice inside bar which signaled an in impending bearish attack. Broken to the downside on Friday price kissed to the pip the .382 fib retracement of the daily upswing. Most likely price will retreat to the broken resistance @ 1.3417 and to test the supply area. I am expecting a short signal for a continuation to the downside where I have two possible long entries which happen to sit on a fib/S&R confluence zone.
.50fib is resting on the 1.31 level and the .618 is accompanied by 1.2950.
Nice round numbers which could provide a nice long opportunity with tight stops for another leg up.
Should this confirm we are looking at another major upswing as I am currently positively biased towards Yuroow. Not to mention the bearish weekly setup on eur/jpy which could also weight in to this week's EU direction. Equity markets currently bumped against enourmous resistance in my opinion. To me all this points towards the 1.31-29.50 area for now.

I would greatly appreciate your comments.

The problem with such an excellent and concise post is that it dosn't leave much room for improvement.

I think you about summed it up, and now we wait to see what Master Market says about it all...

That EJ setup should not be overlooked at one's peril this week. Something about it gives me pause tho, and if there's One that doesn't fit the model, this one could be it... just a silly muttering from the Geezer Bench.

Marthaaaa!!! You still here??? A side of Bemac's Famous Grits would be nice all a'rd...

Recipe here--> http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2538201&postcount=65052 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2538201&postcount=65052)

hope all are well.
Wish I could post more.... just no time.

But I am learning patience....

shorts from 1.3725 and .3685

Hey K, it's the thought that counts.

I would imagine being short from 37xx is helping the Patience Process...

At least now we know where Jay's pips got off to. I hear he's on the Prowl looking for them tho.

I'll be scarce myself for most of the week, concluding some NIMS and ICS training, and as I had decided to stay flat thru the runup to more Geitner Moments, the G20 meetings, plus the End of Quarter and Japanese fiscal year, the timing works out just right.

It's a week loaded with Tripwires and Implications at high levels. I learned along time ago it's best to watch some things from a distance. Actually, it was a'rd this time last year... seems longer.

Morning Guys,

1,3101 is my first level to begin to accumulate longs

Hey Driver. I'm very close to being in 100% agreement with you, However, I wold like to see the Rejection of a Break South of ~ 1.3080 before starting to edge in on a Long Trade that I would expect to TP from this week.

I'm not in a big hurry though. Pulled some very nice P's from weekend drop & exited almost immediatly on Borker Open. {Sounds like Past the Post betting I know but it's what I did.} I wasn't as aggressive on my 'Live Accts' as I was on my Demo but... hey, I'll take it with pleasure.

I realize that I do not post here on a frequency that allows Traders to follow my every move but I don't really feel that that should be my first priority.

So... While I'm here.
It's tough enough to have any idea where the Market is going Next never mind where it's going After that but this is what I am currently watching for...

Longs Accumulating from just under 1.3100 & if so, looking for TP at ~ 1.3700 before I decide if I will play the "Dark Territory" next weekend.

On the ther hand, IF 1.3680 Fails to hold, we could be looking at ~ 1.2700 with the First bus stop @ ~ 1.2950 along the way.

This is not an Excerise in Indecision,. I like to think of it as Being Prepared and is part of the reason that, by the time I get back to posting, I may be looking in the opposite direction.

GL & hth.

This post is primarily for "The Analysts"

Here's March 09 Trades. in graphic.

Here's 2009.

This is not "Horn Blowing"
It's just the facts. Notice: a bunch of things;
I Lose a Few in a Row.{those are the highlighted rows} How much time 'After I do so' I am Back in the Market. The average {Pip Diff} between My Lo$ers & Winners.

Please pay particular attention to Lot Size AND REMEMBER... The Balance in this Demo Acct. allows me to Trade these Volumes But that can be adusted to Your Acct Size with the simplest of math.

Crunch the numbers all you want but it works for me.

Bemac ...good result,
but I dont tell you anything new if I say that a Demo Account is something completely different.

I see you are working with a heavy number of lots and I ask me if the psychological burden is bearable even with a Live Account.
I believe that ,even you are, an old and experienced trader and I'm sure that you will know to interpret your data in a more appropriate and realistic manner.
What is interesting is that ...it seems you have a high number of positive trades and that your method must be good.