DislikedRight, its only my first day trading this system but have placed a position on EURUSD
ENTRY - 1.3282
S/L - 1.3246
T/P - 1.3390
On basis that MACD has formed RB and price seems to have found resistance off 1.3300 which is level formed from January price action.
Looking for retracement towards 21SMA and then further short action subsequently
Any thoughts please let me know???Ignored
- #19,244
- Mar 27, 2009 1:14pm Mar 27, 2009 1:14pm
Any thoughts on the current USDCHF picture?
Looks to me as though found resistance from previous shooting star candle formation and probably retrace to 8/21EMAs?
Higher lows over past week on MACD and double bottom would suggest possible deep correction to 61.8 fibo level of 1.1670
- #19,247
- Mar 27, 2009 3:27pm Mar 27, 2009 3:27pm
Hope you don't mind if I put my 2 cents in here MoneyMan...
In my view, these sort of trades are risky.
I like the resistance line you have at the level, because its been tested as support in the past, but there's just not the confluence of agreeing factors to make it worth the risk:
1) There is a small pin bar / shooting star, but it's size is not significant compared to recent candles. To me, it does not stand out from the crowd. Maybe if it could be reinforced in time by more candles confirming a struggle with the level...
2) Price has broken up out of a descending flat bottom triangle (Trend line resistance starts 19 March)....I would say there needs to be a pretty good reason to trade against a breakout - better to go with the direction of flow.
3) Its right on the weekend
4) Perhaps of lesser importance (PA is king) - no MACD signal
If you can wait for a confluence of agreeing factors, you will be much more confident with your trade decision.
... I guess I have similar thoughts on the E/U long trade - what is acting as proven support to justify a long position after a strong downmove?
In my view, these sort of trades are risky.
I like the resistance line you have at the level, because its been tested as support in the past, but there's just not the confluence of agreeing factors to make it worth the risk:
1) There is a small pin bar / shooting star, but it's size is not significant compared to recent candles. To me, it does not stand out from the crowd. Maybe if it could be reinforced in time by more candles confirming a struggle with the level...
2) Price has broken up out of a descending flat bottom triangle (Trend line resistance starts 19 March)....I would say there needs to be a pretty good reason to trade against a breakout - better to go with the direction of flow.
3) Its right on the weekend
4) Perhaps of lesser importance (PA is king) - no MACD signal
If you can wait for a confluence of agreeing factors, you will be much more confident with your trade decision.
... I guess I have similar thoughts on the E/U long trade - what is acting as proven support to justify a long position after a strong downmove?
Shall I go away and come back and start again?
This is definitely a H4 USDCHF chart, double and triple checked!
I think one of the main flaws in my decision was I was working off the H4 chart, switched to H1 and forgot! Then saw RB MACD signal which didnt exist on H4 
Should probably not place trade as it is against the rule of going through 21EMA and then retracing to 89SMA as that would dictate short.
As you say, its near the weekend, I need to keep studying over next few days before next week to look for clearer entry signals....I do like the feel of the system though, backtesting it is for me for the next 48 hours
Think best option is to trade with trend initally as advised, rather than trying to catch the retracements unless clearly signalled
Should probably not place trade as it is against the rule of going through 21EMA and then retracing to 89SMA as that would dictate short.
As you say, its near the weekend, I need to keep studying over next few days before next week to look for clearer entry signals....I do like the feel of the system though, backtesting it is for me for the next 48 hours
Think best option is to trade with trend initally as advised, rather than trying to catch the retracements unless clearly signalled
- #19,251
- Mar 29, 2009 12:14am Mar 29, 2009 12:14am
Closed this trade @ 4425 = +81pips
Thank you for reply. I learned a lot from your post.A further question is fib drawing in your chart attached. I'm confused with it. Since you were looking for support level,why you didn't draw fib from 1.4734 to 1.3689? See picture below. Thank you!
- #19,252
- Edited Mar 30, 2009 3:23am Mar 29, 2009 11:09am | Edited Mar 30, 2009 3:23am
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: revisit | 1,896 Posts
OrangeRANGE, would you explain what a 3 inside down pattern is or where I can go to read about it.
By the way I want to say thanks again for you guys posting all this. I am on my way to having my first month with positive Pips. It feels good even if it is only a practice account.
You can google it. There are a lot of links regarding Japanese advance candlestick patterns.
Goodluck...
bought on CT signal on the weekly TL(look at second chart),half closed 50pips and other half is running,now the question is : is loonie ready for a breakout this time?maybe someone knows elliot wave correction waves counting or something else?
Currently only half way through my Elliot wave book! lol so far so good!
I think one of the main flaws in my decision was I was working off the H4 chart, switched to H1 and forgot! Then saw RB MACD signal which didnt exist on H4
Should probably not place trade as it is against the rule of going through 21EMA and then retracing to 89SMA as that would dictate short.
As you say, its near the weekend, I need to keep studying over next few days before next week to look for clearer entry signals....I do like the feel of the system though, backtesting it is for me for the next 48 hours
Think best option is to...
You got it, to start with just take the TC (trend continuation) signals off the 4H, you should only take on around 10 / 15 trades per month. Use a demo account to go through the method as if your currently trading live you'll be inclined to take far more on which are not TRUE to the rules.
Regarding 1H entries, master the 4H 1st then move onto the 1H, these are quite a lot different & take alot of experience to know which ones to take & which to pass.
Any questions please ask & good luck
Cheers WG
- #19,257
- Mar 30, 2009 9:23am Mar 30, 2009 9:23am
Hello Yuyudada, i'm glad you learnt alot from a relatively straight forward trade. There is an art to where to draw your fib studies from. I've had many questions about this, so i'm thinking about making a quick video and sticking it up on youtube - what that help you & others?
Basically not to confuse & go off 4H MACD you should always draw your fib study from the move recent wave movement. In this example 1.3842 - 1.4775 is the 3rd wave and the most recent you are interested in. 1.3653 - 1.4231 was the 1st wave, 1.4231 - 1.3842 was the 2nd, you...
Thank you for helping newcomer!
- #19,259
- Mar 30, 2009 10:59am Mar 30, 2009 10:59am
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: revisit | 1,896 Posts
Hello all...
I still SHORT this pair from 1.3280...and adjusting my SL for another FREE RIDE...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Found Evening Star pattern (see blue box) in h4. That's why I decided to keep this ride in open position now...
I made my entry last Friday (27/3/09) @ aqua vertical line.
And, as my trade is still in a FREE RIDE, I will let my free ride in open position as I see both h1 and h4 as below in a strong+fast downtrend market.
Price level 1.3100 and 365EMA @ h4 are the immediate support levels for this pair right now.
I will do the trailing stops (to gain some pips) once EU break below these two support levels. Maybe my next new SL will be somewhere around price level 1.3200 (+/- 80pips gain). We'll see how far EU will dive...and my decision will depends on it.
Your comments/questions are most welcome.
HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
- #19,260
- Mar 30, 2009 9:20pm Mar 30, 2009 9:20pm
Can some one tell me if my reasoning is correct? The rule says after breaking the 89 the price will pull back to the 21 before continuing on its way. If this occurs there may be a head and shoulders which would help confirm that the PA will be downward. This would indicate a possible trade. A bit risky with the 365 close by and a trend line. Would one of you give me your thoughts. Am I pushing this trade or is there something there? If there is something there, where would I set the TP at?
