No charts?

Sorry, but I cant get this picture out of my head of you with your forehead pressed against the right hand side of your computer screen. :

The example of oil. Think about this.

I dont trade it. But we all hear info all of the time about Oil price, and the reasons behind the price and what the price will do in this or that scenario.

I'll bet that on any day each one of us could be really close at guessing what the price of Oil is without even looking at a chart of it. Because.... we hear about it everywhere. Memory and economic news all of the time.

Should I go long Oil? Do ya think !!!! ??? !!!
Just before the Summer vacation season begins and (did you hear that some refineries are closed for refitting ?) . Fundamental Analysis + The law of supply and demand !!!

Applying this thinking to Forex is going to be a lot harder. First of all there are two economies to consider with each pair. Second we dont hear much on regular news about it. If the Eur/Usd was reported on broadcast news like Oil we could trade that pair w/o a chart.

In my experience, the trader I know of who trades this way and teaches others about this method is Dirk du Toit. He does use a chart with a grid to give reference to price, but that's it. (Will my post be removed?)

Lou

Lou, some times a post makes me think.

Thanks!

hmmm, me thinks lots of confusion here

the earliest traders were the chinese, who of course invented candlesticks.

surely they must have used some form of charting to display the relationship of 1 candle to the next.

now if it worked for them all these years, charts are the only real way of navigating the forex market.

I would hate to set out to sea wituout a chart............incase my GPS brokedown..

Sorry Sorry.................it was the Japanese not the Chinese who developed candlesicks.


Was probably thinking of my dinner tonight

Was it not to track the value of rice?

I have read that somewhere.

Me 2,..i traded oil for 3 month not even knowing for indicators and regular news published evryday ... (...untill i met the FF ... ) , now i do...so its possible,...

When I trade with no charts, I conseder ATR, todays move, and if the trade is positive or negative.

Oil, Hmm...

Ok... Here goes and it will be your resposibility to pass this onto those that come after you.
The Inception of a futures contract was developed very shortly after the developement of CandleStick Charting.{in truth, probably simulteaneously}
Both occured in Japan in the 18th century {open to other opinions}

Ever watched the Movie "Last Samuri"?
18th Century. 1701 - 1799
Japanese Warlords were paid from the sale of the Rice Crop of the year.
They also needed all that pretty, yet functional, Armour.
Warlord says to craftsman...
Make me some armour at an agreed price and I will pay you when the harvest comes in. {ie, in the future.} Let's say they agreed on 2 Bushels of Rice presently selling for 1 Yen/Bushel {Sold 2 @ 1.0}
Bumper Crop, Rice price is low {0.5 Yen/Bushel} and Warlord pays Realatively Lower Price to Craftsman {2 Bushels of Rice are equivelent to 1 Bushel when he traded them so he gets his armour for 1/2 price [1 Yen true cost]}
Blighted crop and Rice is at 20 Yen/Bushel, Warlord pays Craftsman 2 Bushels of Rice and his armour cost him 2 Bushels, 40 Yen.

So... the answer is Yes. It was to track the production of Rice But, who do you think was more privvy to the crop report? The Craftsman or the Warlord?
Edited to look at the math from adifferent pespective. hopefully clearer.