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Trend Follower 5 Minute System

  • #2,841
  • Mar 27, 2009 4:57am Mar 27, 2009 4:57am
Quoting pilatus
It is bearish reversal but this long red candle on top. Look at pic.
Thanks I see. It is hard to say how long as a reversal will last, when you took your trade it is already the 4th bar after the reversal. Perhaps, I need to experience more candlestick pattern observations.
Learning never stops...
  • #2,842
  • Mar 27, 2009 5:16am Mar 27, 2009 5:16am
When this signal appeared, the H1 showed a down trend, M15 showed a to-be-breakout pattern, and the price has fell only a little. Although the rainbow is not too narrow, it is the first one after the M5 breakout. I was thinking there is high-prob the price with go south. Also, the profit/loss ratio is good, the recent high is not that high.

This is a really great Signal from the Follower, but I wouldn't take. Why? My experience tells me that if I take it, it will somehow immediately hit my stop-loss. Still observing.
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Learning never stops...
  • #2,843
  • Mar 27, 2009 8:00am Mar 27, 2009 8:00am
Quoting abc997
When this signal appeared, the H1 showed a down trend, M15 showed a to-be-breakout pattern, and the price has fell only a little. Although the rainbow is not too narrow, it is the first one after the M5 breakout. I was thinking there is high-prob the price with go south. Also, the profit/loss ratio is good, the recent high is not that high.

This is a really great Signal from the Follower, but I wouldn't take. Why? My experience tells me that if I take it, it will somehow immediately hit my stop-loss. Still observing.
Excelent signal which should be remembered and any trader of this system have to look for that kind of signal. Why? In few words, guppy not expanded, price steady for some time before signal in small range, first signal after breakout, ralatively small stop loss for that pair etc. But most imprtant thing is that price rebounded from previous support and become resistance and small range conditions before signal. Explanation is on pic.
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  • #2,844
  • Mar 27, 2009 8:18am Mar 27, 2009 8:18am
Quoting pilatus
Excelent signal which should be remembered and any trader of this system have to look for that kind of signal. Why? In few words, guppy not expanded, price steady for some time before signal in small range, first signal after breakout etc. But most imprtant thing is that price rebounded from previous support and become resistance and small range conditions before signal. Explanation is on pic.
Congrats abc997, and thanks Pilatus for the explanation.

I was going to show exactly the same trade. I took it because MS1 Became resistant, the price was steady and we got a signal.
The price moved more than 300 PIP But I exited at S2, +40 PIPs , enough for me, and I couldnt stop half because I was trading 0.1 Lots, minimum lot size.

I had a very hard week with the system, but those trades let you have hopes again on it.


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  • #2,845
  • Mar 27, 2009 8:21am Mar 27, 2009 8:21am
Fundamentals, additionaly said that it was going to go south, because of Tax Free Yen repatriation policy in Japan.
  • #2,846
  • Mar 27, 2009 8:29am Mar 27, 2009 8:29am
Hi guys,

I wanted to share this info and hope you find it useful....

Congressman Peter DeFazio introduced H.R. 1068: “Let Wall Street Pay for Wall Street's Bailout Act of 2009” on 13February2009. This bill imposes a 0.25% transaction tax on the “value of the sale and purchase of financial instruments such as stock, options, and futures contracts.” While HR1068 seeks to engender populist appeal by ostensibly exacting monetary retribution against the big Wall Street firms for wreaking havoc upon the American financial system, its effects will hurt EVERY American who trades professionally as well as the ordinary investor trying to save for the future. The 0.25% tax is invoked against the VALUE of every purchase AND sale of typical financial instruments, resulting in an egregious added cost borne by every American for each investment or trading transaction they make, even within the realm of an IRA or 401K account. It is particularly grievous that this tax is imposed upon the transaction itself, regardless of whether the purchase / sale generates a profit. The bill will have virtually no effect upon the behavior of the relatively few Wall Street executives whose reckless decisions contributed to the current financial crisis, as added costs would in all likelihood be passed on in some form to customers. Further, the bill would have the effect of diminishing capital provision, as it discourages investment to a degree even beyond the negative impact of capital gains taxation.
HR1068 MUST BE STOPPED!! THE BEST WAY TO ENSURE HR1068 NEVER BECOMES LAW IS TO MAKE YOUR OPPOSITION FORCEFULLY AND UNAMBIGUOUSLY KNOWN TO YOUR CONGRESSMEN AND SENATORS!!!
HR1068 is currently in Committee [House Ways and Means] for markup and debate, so Congress needs to hear from traders and investors quickly and massively in opposition. Further, the bill has already garnered air time in the media, thus it is gaining visibility.
Attached/below is a pre-composed letter response for your use in writing to your Congressmen and Senators. However, be advised that the most effective means of response in voicing protest regarding HR1068 is to call your Congressman's/Senators' office. The next most effective means of communication is via actual mail. The least effective [though still viable] means of communicating your displeasure regarding HR1068 is via email. You can obtain the contact information for your Congressman and Senators via http://www.govtrack.us/congress/. You can track the current status of HR1068 as it goes through the legislative process via http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-1068 .
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #2,847
  • Mar 27, 2009 8:31am Mar 27, 2009 8:31am
Quoting ThinkFX
Fundamentals, additionaly said that it was going to go south, because of Tax Free Yen repatriation policy in Japan.
Patient buddy patient. That is what I am talking all the time. 1-3 trades per week but good trades. It is better to take 1 trade like this one and take 200-300 pips, than risk with doubtfull signals and loose 5 times 20-30 pips or just take 10-15 pips. If someome was waiting 2 weeks for that kind of signal it is better than to trade all the time and take every possible signal because EA says that conditions are met.
So for everyone here, this is excelent lesson. Wait and take trades which signal looks like in that example.
  • #2,848
  • Mar 27, 2009 9:57am Mar 27, 2009 9:57am
Quoting ThinkFX
Fundamentals, additionaly said that it was going to go south, because of Tax Free Yen repatriation policy in Japan.
This is something important to be careful of. If this is a well-expected news which is to be announced at a particular time, technical system traders should keep out from trading, because you never know which direction will the pair go. This kind of news will make the price movement direction change suddenly and will not be reflected in the system.

Nevertheless, if it is more like a news that is not keenly expected by market players, the price moving will be generally slower and will be more easy to be caught by the system. The only thing that a system trader can do nothing is that when they entered a position and an unexpected news happened which caused a sudden big impact on the price movement.

This is just my opinion in technical system trading in general.
Learning never stops...
  • #2,849
  • Edited 3:18pm Mar 27, 2009 10:33am | Edited 3:18pm
Now I will talk only about guppy positions.
One thing that can maybe help to recognize conditions of guppy. We say that guppy are in proper position for taking a signal when they are not so much expanded. What that means???
First, I recommend to everyone to read book of Daryl Guppy, famous Australian trader of stocks, named "trend trading". In that book he explains and uses guppy MMA as #1 indicator for trading. So, we are using this guppy as heart of our system and we should pay much attention on guppy for evaluating good signal which was Wicker's recommendation in his firsts posts. I noticed that lot of new traders of this system have problem of recognizing good signal according to guppy.
So I will little explain what means guppy contracted. Usually they are not expanded when breakout occur, which means when they change direction from long to short and opposite. When that happen, we should pay attention because possible signal might occur in that new borned direction. If we look guppy in that particular position we can notice that red MMA's are tightened and that they have position every next candle wider.Most imprtant thing we can NOT se through them or we can but barely. Look at example. So this is kind of situation we look for to open a trade. This kind of signal is the best. Because behind us are not so much price movement which means that can be more. And that is what we want, move in our direction. In that kind of signal, to open a trade is much less risk that price can go opposite our opened direction instead opening a trade based on signal where guppy are expanded.
Continue on next post.
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  • #2,850
  • Edited 3:19pm Mar 27, 2009 10:43am | Edited 3:19pm
Now I will post example of risky signal which I avoid to take as good one and open a trade, although is valid and made few pips. Today we have one of that very risky signal on eur/usd although is valid according to macd, laguerre etc. Here are all of them. If you avoid that kind of signal and look for one like in first post you will not have much good signals per week but will have less lost trades. Ok so in first example guppy are expaned, we can see through red ones MMA's big move of 180 pips is behind us etc. Second example says for himself. After DS3 it is unreal to expect that price can go further but sometimes it can. But as I told before very very risky trade. So look on guppy too, red ones very opened and expanded.
Continiue on next post.
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  • #2,851
  • Edited 3:12pm Mar 27, 2009 11:26am | Edited 3:12pm
And now I will post example of trade where guppy are expanded and we can take a trade. And that kind of situation happen on strong moves but we must have confirmation that we can open a trade and that is price movement before signal. So, for begining a little education. Daryl Guppy teach in his book that guppy MMA's shows established trend. How we can determine that trend is established? Well, trend is established when red MMA's are developed and they have same bandwith all the time. That means that what ever price movement is and whatever bandwith of other MMA's are, red MMA's remain same bandwith. Look at first picture. What ever price retracement is, red MMA's are the same bandwith. So in that kind of established trend we can look for nice valid signal. But how can we recognize it? First we need to know that this kind of trend do not occur much times and if they are, they do not last much. Second important thing is that we trade on 5 min time frame and that guppy are very sensitive to volatile price movement. Once red MMA's are getting to become squeezed again, that signal that this trend is to become week. But as I said, if we have guppy positioned like in first example in this post, we can look for signal.
Now, how can we recognize it? It is not just macd, lagg etc to be in proper order. We need confirmation of trend continuation. SO that is in first place red MMA's developed position all the time same bandwith and second very importan thing is price movement before signal. So it is logically that we need steady price movement before signal. That shows us that price do not want to retrace and that is rather willing to continue trending. Look at example #2. Ok, this second example is what I find first and do not look at time when signal occur. This is for learning purpose how that kind of signal looks like.
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  • #2,852
  • Mar 27, 2009 11:35am Mar 27, 2009 11:35am
In last three posts are all esential knowing about this excelent system. Best signals are on first post, good on third and not tradable on second post. I have purposely removed pivot level to better see examples. So if anyone now have doubut about what means guppy contracted let look at those three posts.
One thing more- if someone doubt where to exit from trade we have pivot levels in first place but slope line indicator is big help. That is all I have to tell about guppy indicator for now.
Hope I helped!
Have a good weekend!
  • #2,853
  • Mar 27, 2009 12:44pm Mar 27, 2009 12:44pm
Another good looking signal today. Especially if we considder that EUR/USD was in time when this AUD/USD signal occured, moved more than 50 pips and breakout occured. So, it is known that EUR/USD and AUD/USD have very high positive correlation and that they most of the time move in same direction. But,without that kind of confirmation guppy and price movement look excelent to take a trade.
Pay attention on price movement before signal and guppy order.
So, with this signal and those from before on EUR/JPY we could make more than 350 pips only today.
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  • #2,854
  • Mar 27, 2009 2:14pm Mar 27, 2009 2:14pm
Pilatus, thank you, thanks to your efforts. Your posts (as usually) are very useful.
  • #2,855
  • Mar 27, 2009 3:25pm Mar 27, 2009 3:25pm
Quoting Peretola
Pilatus, thank you, thanks to your efforts. Your posts (as usually) are very useful.
No problem just ask what you want to know. Thanks for support my posts here.
  • #2,856
  • Mar 28, 2009 10:36am Mar 28, 2009 10:36am
Quoting pilatus
In last three posts are all esential knowing about this excelent system. Best signals are on first post, good on third and not tradable on second post. I have purposely removed pivot level to better see examples. So if anyone now have doubut about what means guppy contracted let look at those three posts.
One thing more- if someone doubt where to exit from trade we have pivot levels in first place but slope line indicator is big help. That is all I have to tell about guppy indicator for now.
Hope I helped!
Have a good weekend!
Thanks Pilatus.I really benefited from the tutorial.I say may God bless your trades.
  • #2,857
  • Mar 28, 2009 11:53am Mar 28, 2009 11:53am
Quoting aje6767
Thanks Pilatus.I really benefited from the tutorial.I say may God bless your trades.
Thanks, honestly I wrote that mostly because of you. I noticed that you have problem with recognizing what guppy contracted means. Now if you have any doubt go to that post, see example and especially this example AUD/USD and try to search for that kind of signal. If you are still not sure if guppy are contracted or not look for confirmation, like price movement before signal and does price rebound from some level from which rebounded before too. If you still have doubt, pass the trade, there is always new opportunity. It is really not important how many pips you made per week or per month it is important how many times do you loose. I am happy if I make 50 pips per week in total including loss. If I make more it is a gift.
So once more I will post what good example is and what we are looking for. This scenario happen most of the time. Narrow/steady price movement in small range mostly sideways moving, or with slightly slope,like in a small channel. After that signal appear and boom, price rocket in our direction.
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  • #2,858
  • Mar 28, 2009 4:23pm Mar 28, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting pilatus
Thanks, honestly I wrote that mostly because of you. I noticed that you have problem with recognizing what guppy contracted means. Now if you have any doubt go to that post, see example and especially this example AUD/USD and try to search for that kind of signal. If you are still not sure if guppy are contracted or not look for confirmation, like price movement before signal and does price rebound from some level from which rebounded before too. If you...
I am very grateful great Pilatus.
  • #2,859
  • Mar 30, 2009 2:20am Mar 30, 2009 2:20am
Hi pilatus, just to let you kno so many of us are benefitting from your effort!Thank you and keep up your gud job,may God reward you abundantly................
  • #2,860
  • Mar 30, 2009 2:29am Mar 30, 2009 2:29am
Quoting forexsoul
Hi pilatus, just to let you kno so many of us are benefitting from your effort!Thank you and keep up your gud job,may God reward you abundantly................
Thanks buddy. I will try to help as much as i can.
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