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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #3,261
  • Apr 4, 2007 10:31am Apr 4, 2007 10:31am
Pretty much exactly what I look for was on the usd/chf... took after the short 4 hour (red) candle closed at the upper t/l and started/gave the macd signal. Most of your charts may look just a little bit different, but the same simple little strategy should work. I know it "looks" messy, but if you would see the whole picture and know/understand what's on your chart it's not bad haha.

On this pair I will also be looking to take off the lower tl convergence long if the signal shows... if not exactly what I want, I move on to the next pair.

Quoting irusoh
Dire, can you post a chart of good signal with t/l for clarification.

thx
Attached Image
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #3,262
  • Apr 4, 2007 10:36am Apr 4, 2007 10:36am
Dire:

I agree on the tc set-ups on the 1hr. Phillip said that this is and 'advanced technique'. That can be interpreted in many ways. Specifically, I think it is a discretionary trade for re-entry and this is where knowing what to look for outside of the box comes into play. Especially if the 4h is above the 89 = bullish, a rt has formed and you are now short on the 4hr. Then, price retraces to the 21, you're still short on the 4hr because of the rt. But, since the price has now hit the 21 (and you're short because of the rt even though the 4hr is above the 89 the market is still bullish) so you look to the 1hr for a tc to go long. That leaves the potential to be long and short the market at the same time. But, if you know the profit targets and where your stops should be, it should be all good. I'm getting the mindset of being really conservative on the tc on the 1hr as far as banking pips goes because you are bucking the trend more or less. That is where the discipline and patience comes into play. The 4hr is much more forgiving. I'm looking only at the EURO$. I know I'm missing out on other markets but the less I have to think about the better. I'm trying to keep this as simple and consistent as possible.

Nice work on the 'comeback'.

Preservation of capital = staying power.
  • #3,263
  • Apr 4, 2007 10:38am Apr 4, 2007 10:38am
Thans for the chart.
So looks like you ignore tails in your channels?
  • #3,264
  • Apr 4, 2007 11:03am Apr 4, 2007 11:03am
Quoting DireXiv
Hey guys, I've been fairly quiet, but wanted to share.

I had a BAD coulple weeks, I tried to implement the 1 hr TC with the 4 hour strategy, and among other things I made it too complicated! Also, I tried to do just two pairs, and tried to get every signal... not working. I was very successful looking at 6 pairs, and only using phillips 4 hour method not including the 1 hour before the bad streak. So, I'm back to it.

I had to wait a day or two to make any trades, but here's what I did.
I simply map out the major trend lines on the eur/usd, gbp/usd, usd/chf, eur/jpy, usd/jpy, nzd/usd, usd/cad, and the gbp/jpy (careful on this one).

After mapping the t/l's I wait until the macd signal comes to me at one of the trend lines. This is what I have found to be HIGHLY successful. It takes a LOT of patience, but can pay off very well. At least one 4 candle must close to show the signal at the tl to take the trade, along with other signals that are there of course. The tl will also help reduce the s/l needed (as long as somewhat watching it).

Results for this week so far (had to wait to take these trades as I said, but they all came last night!):

eur/jpy: 55 pips 1 lot (short)
gbp/jpy: 32 pips 1 lot (short)
usd/chf: 16 1 lot (short)
eur/usd: 27 1 lot, 14 1 lot (long)
usd/jpy: 18 1 lot, 25 and counting second lot (short)

Total: 187+ pips with limited risk in one night.

It's such a relief to find myself back to the original phillip 4 hour method, and have such a simple strategy work.... good pips to all!
Dire, thanks for sharing your results. I am with you. I am only working with 4H. Thanks for the added insights.
  • #3,265
  • Apr 4, 2007 12:00pm Apr 4, 2007 12:00pm
I know they are there , but yes, on all my t/ls I only base it on the finish of the body of the candle. Most of the time when I do this, I see the price shoot way of the channel, but where do they end up closing? Right at the t/l most of the time if it doesn't I know it's the price will now flip and the t/l's will act a support instead of resistance, or vice versa.

Edit: 1 caveat from above post is that I usually wait until i see good separation between the 8 and 21 before making a trade.... keeps me out of consolidation. I may miss the full break out, but I can get some pips on the pull back if the signal shows.

Quoting irusoh
Thans for the chart.
So looks like you ignore tails in your channels?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #3,266
  • Apr 4, 2007 12:22pm Apr 4, 2007 12:22pm
Hello,

Looks very interesting system. Entry signals are like perfect but is there any rule for exits ? When im going to wait for the next entry signal a lot of pips will go waste.

But thanks again for that nice strategy.
  • #3,267
  • Apr 4, 2007 12:31pm Apr 4, 2007 12:31pm
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip DailyWrapup 04April.zip   824 KB | 1,408 downloads
  • #3,268
  • Apr 4, 2007 2:32pm Apr 4, 2007 2:32pm
Great wrap up Phillip. Studying this system has definitely "shown" me the market rhythm and movements of the market. I don't take trades when I don't "feel good" about it, and quite a bit of the time, my feelings turn out to be justified. I've come along way with all of you from when I started.

Thanks Phillip for all your insight!!!

Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #3,269
  • Apr 4, 2007 2:56pm Apr 4, 2007 2:56pm
This is a great system and i got the EUR/usd and usd/chf today on my game account( didnt have a chance to check any other paisr this morning at 6am GMT but I still have a LOT to learn. I njotice a lot of people are using candles and I only seem to know the very basics and Ive heard the term inside bottoms and tops and i will have to search the posts here to find out more but this is great system Phil.

I think im going to speend this easter holiday reading from page one the posts( or reading the pdf of the posts that some kind poster made)

Good luck to you all.

Wishing you all a tail less trade!
  • #3,270
  • Apr 4, 2007 5:29pm Apr 4, 2007 5:29pm
Quoting DireXiv
I know they are there , but yes, on all my t/ls I only base it on the finish of the body of the candle. Most of the time when I do this, I see the price shoot way of the channel, but where do they end up closing? Right at the t/l most of the time if it doesn't I know it's the price will now flip and the t/l's will act a support instead of resistance, or vice versa.

Edit: 1 caveat from above post is that I usually wait until i see good separation between the 8 and 21 before making a trade.... keeps me out of consolidation. I may miss the full break out, but I can get some pips on the pull back if the signal shows.
Nice observation on the tails and the consolidation pattern! I'm glad to see you back on the forum (I missed your insightfulness to trading). What I have found the most important w/1 hour is helping identify when breakout from consolidation occurs. The 21 and 8 are closely intangled w/89 along w/price. Only when price starts to slide from the 89 w/the shorter MA's is directional move confirmed (I do this because of the 3 hour lag I have w/my candles). MACD is only used if it is moving in same direction as 4 hour...not to jump ahead and establish a new direction (unless the price action and shorter MA's are moving away from the 89).

Glad to hear you have found your market rhthym again! & better yet, that you captured so many pips yesterday!!!!

Pips
  • #3,271
  • Apr 4, 2007 5:33pm Apr 4, 2007 5:33pm
Quoting Palmer
Dire:

I agree on the tc set-ups on the 1hr. Phillip said that this is and 'advanced technique'. That can be interpreted in many ways. Specifically, I think it is a discretionary trade for re-entry and this is where knowing what to look for outside of the box comes into play. Especially if the 4h is above the 89 = bullish, a rt has formed and you are now short on the 4hr. Then, price retraces to the 21, you're still short on the 4hr because of the rt. But, since the price has now hit the 21 (and you're short because of the rt even though the 4hr is above the 89 the market is still bullish) so you look to the 1hr for a tc to go long. That leaves the potential to be long and short the market at the same time. But, if you know the profit targets and where your stops should be, it should be all good. I'm getting the mindset of being really conservative on the tc on the 1hr as far as banking pips goes because you are bucking the trend more or less. That is where the discipline and patience comes into play. The 4hr is much more forgiving. I'm looking only at the EURO$. I know I'm missing out on other markets but the less I have to think about the better. I'm trying to keep this as simple and consistent as possible.

Nice work on the 'comeback'.

Preservation of capital = staying power.
Nice post Palmer. The 1 hour is extremely useful in validating the Round top Round Bottom pattern...or seeing TC emerge...again it all goes w/harmony of 4 hour. Forgot to put this info in my original post to Dire, and your post reminded me of the importance.
  • #3,272
  • Apr 4, 2007 5:39pm Apr 4, 2007 5:39pm
Quoting kappa
hi, pips

I was quite lucky with this trade. USD/JPY came down to hit my target exactly to go up again.

Last Friday, on the other hand, I was unlucky to see usdjpy spiked down to hit my s/l exactly and went up again to reach my target. Loss of 40pips.

Now we (I am trading with my wife. She is trading with her own account) are more cautious when setting s/l.

My audusd trade made 20pips. Audusd is still going up. Should have taken 2 lots.

We decided to take one lot when countertrend trade, take two lots otherwise from next time.

Good trade ahead !
hmmm..were you "lucky" or was your plan w/sl and tp perfect w/perfect execution?

Nice job to you and your wife on the AUDUSD trade...and I like that you are developing a money management plan in advance that deals with counter trend and trend situations. I do the same when I take a "speculative" position...I'll trade 1 lot instead of 2 or 3...but it's because I'm afraid rather than rational!

Best trading to you and your wife! May you both put many many pips into your account (and not give them back!).

pips
  • #3,273
  • Apr 4, 2007 5:44pm Apr 4, 2007 5:44pm
Quoting citsagos
Hello,

Looks very interesting system. Entry signals are like perfect but is there any rule for exits ? When im going to wait for the next entry signal a lot of pips will go waste.

But thanks again for that nice strategy.
Hi citsagos,

reread the pdf...exits are made at MA's, TL's, Fibs, etc. Depends on the trader's unique style. Also, Break Even levels are usually decided by the above. Rule of thumb, is try to bank a few pips around 20, move to BE on remaining and scale out based on your analysis of levles. Looking over past history and papertrading them is a good way to get the feel of what works for you.

Wishing you all the best in your trading endevors.
  • #3,274
  • Apr 4, 2007 5:45pm Apr 4, 2007 5:45pm
Dire,

Glad to hear someone has tried this. Trend lines are always extra confirmation and using them with MACD I guess makes them golden, (See Donna, You are rubbing off)LOL

Nice Job.

J
  • #3,275
  • Apr 4, 2007 5:54pm Apr 4, 2007 5:54pm
Everyone,

This pair is in ascending triangle, Hey dire, time to test your theory.

J
  • #3,276
  • Apr 4, 2007 6:30pm Apr 4, 2007 6:30pm
H1H1 can you post a chart? Thanks! BTW, thanks for the support everybody... kept thinking about the traders that quit before even a year, and couldn't be one of them

Out of all the pairs I'm looking at right now, aud/usd looks PERFECT... at upper t/l, way above the 21 with good seperation between the 21 and 8, and I'll be looking for at least 1 four hour candle to close down to start/signal the round top forming. Since it's a countertrend, the 4 hour has to close... otherwise.... I'm on the sideline consistency with high probability is KEY.

I will also keep close eye on e/u as it is hitting the same horizontal resistance again! If 1 four hour candle closes down, I"m in... it has to break this triangle soon, it has no where to go at this point Otherwise 21 and 8 are too close.

The U/Cad is in the same predicament as the e/u... coming to the end of a triangle and has no where to go, so will be looking to go short with a four hour candle close down to try and catch a break out. otherwise the 21 and 8 are too close.

Eur/jpy is close. I already took this off the major trend line rising up, what we're seeing now imho is it hitting a horizontal resistanace level like the e/u or a very small downtrend t/l. So, I'm not necessarily excited about it, but it very well may play nicely


Quoting hard1head1
Everyone,

This pair is in ascending triangle, Hey dire, time to test your theory.

J
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #3,277
  • Apr 4, 2007 7:27pm Apr 4, 2007 7:27pm
Short at 1.1587 coming off upper triangle tl with price level right above it and 1 four hour candle closed to show lower high round on macd. 1-2-3 candle pattern is showing, but not confirmed if it does, it will be a very nice trade for about 75 pips.

1st tp: 1.1571 for 16 pips at lower triangle t/l and 21 ema. It's with the trend according to the 89, but the 8 and 21 have crossed and pointing up to the 89, so it's a potential "countertrend" from my thinking.

2nd tp: 1.1516 above the even lower t/l established a ways back and above the next price level. For 71 pips about where the 1-2-3 would end if it confirms.

s/l: 1.1621 above the 89 and price level for a risk of 34 pips R:R is low to the first, but looking for break out.

We'll see how this works this time. Looking for a break out lower, but have the 1st tp within the existing triangle. Will have to wait till next 4 hour candle close in.... 4 hours to try the aud/usd, and eur/usd, and eur/jpy
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #3,278
  • Apr 4, 2007 7:50pm Apr 4, 2007 7:50pm
Hey Dire and All,

I'm sure you are all aware that AudUsd has just backed off of a 20 year high...which was (i think) .8213

Think your plan of shorting w/confirmation may be a great one...or...buying w/confirmation above the "all time high".
  • #3,279
  • Apr 4, 2007 9:09pm Apr 4, 2007 9:09pm
news from my broker: highest since 1996!

[AUD/USD] rose from an earlier low of 0.8185 to 0.8212 a level not seen since the dec 1996 high of 0.8210. Market players cited the triggering of stops losses above the 0.8200 level where barriers apparently lie for the push higher in the pair. Specs and leveraged accts were notable buyers.The Market has shrugged off the initial effect of yesterday's decision by the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged where the pair plunged to around the 0.8065 level and market players are convince that a sustain break above the 0.8210 level towards resistance at 0.8245/50 and 0.8300 will happen over coming sessions.

Quoting pips4uandme
Hey Dire and All,

I'm sure you are all aware that AudUsd has just backed off of a 20 year high...which was (i think) .8213

Think your plan of shorting w/confirmation may be a great one...or...buying w/confirmation above the "all time high".
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #3,280
  • Apr 4, 2007 10:34pm Apr 4, 2007 10:34pm
Check out the double top the Eur/Chf.
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