The System II (Yes with irony)

Moneda
thank you for your reply, i saw all the thread, my question was the time range but i will asuming that the first breaout, best swing, etc, could be in the time range of 7-8 ( mexico city, where i live), so i will workin on this strategy, i saw a similiar strtegy almost the same in a website of somebody called Phil Newton's http://www.trading-strategies.info/node/23, here you have the direction, thanks again for your reply.

Irastorza,

You want to look for swings that start after 8am (e.s.t. New York time). You may want to be out of the market during major US economic news until the dust clears...that is of course if you are not the gambling type .

Good luck

Moneda, i think that before of 8 am est time is a good time to watch, talking about news, i never trade the friday even less in news, Thanks for the advice.

I have really liked the discussions / posting on this thread; I hope it will stay alive and people posting some set-ups. Thank you

Hi eveyone,
here is a potential set up, but its right before london open.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif

Hi Feb,

When we dont hear from you for awhile we are hoping all the best for you mate. Hope you feel all the love and prayers heading your way.

Kindest regards

Hi everyone,
I see it has not been much activity in this great thread. I verymuch would love to see this thread keep alive till Feb hopeful returns. I am going to post some chart setups (Feb's text book style). I hope some of the old guys join in with me, so new people can benefit like we all did in the past.
I look forward for some feed backs, hope to see you all.

Good trading to all.

That`s a good idea FXachiles,

Please post some charts and i will also try to do the same. I`ve been very busy lately and i didn`t had much time to trade.

All best

necre

Hi fxachillies,
like many others I've also been following feb's threads and would love to see them continued by yourself and the other regular contributors until feb returns.

I'm probably on a different timezone to most of you but will try and contribute when I can
cheers and happy pipping
mm3934

Hi Guys,
I did not trade on Friday due to banks holidays not much volitility expacted but here is how i trade the E/U on Thursday. Four simple trades ended up with +63 pips. ((1st +28 / 2nd +19 / 3rd -18 / 4th +34)). shades are my enteries after 3thicks pass the horizontal lines.
see you all on monday.
Good trading to all.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif

fxachilies,

It appears to me that most of the trades you are showing start the swing up or down with a rather strong move in the direction of your entry.

Do you look for that move first as sort of an "alert" to tell you that a big move may be started, or is this just a coincidence?

I was trading feb's system a few months ago and had some trouble with getting stopped out a lot on moves that just "peeked" through s/r and pulled right back. It looks like waiting for a strong move in a direction may be a good way to indicate a good follow through after the retracement.

What do you think?

I had discussed this sort of thing with acetrader at the time and didn't really get it then.

Glad to hear you are doing better, FEB.

Hi Dave,
For me whats important is to be the first to get on the bus, on the 5 min we don't look for a trend nor a reall strong direction, any 30-40 pip in the any direction qualifies a swing and a two bar pullback qualifies a retracment and cross of the horizontal line gives me a high probability entery, but keep in mind, like Feb always says losing is part of the game so all we are doing is keep testing the market with a tight trade managment to catch a runner you may not end up with a high wining ratio but you'll be ahead on your bottom line. But the beauty of thrsdays case is that I ended up with 63 pip and i did not even have a reall runner so you can still make money without it.
Once i really devoted myself to this philosphy I been making ton of money.
I hope I answered your question.

Hi to all!

I'm from Ukraine, so my english is very, very, very bаd. So I hope you'll excuse me. I like this thread very much, and I hope that it will continue.

If you allow me I'll post my charts here, and I think you'll help me to find my mistakes.

I am so grateful to FEB. His method is the best!

Thanks for explaining.

Here is the difficulty I am having with this:

Sometime ago I was looking for ideas on how to avoid so many of the fake-outs and false breakouts that happen and never got a clear idea of what to do about it. The trades you show on your charts seem obvious. That initial surge, or longer bar, like the 30-40 pips you mention seem to be an indication that price is headed strongly in that direction. That seems clear to me.

A few other things are not so clear. You are simply watching the charts and when you see a 30-40 pip bar up or down you are preparing for a pullback and break through resistance (the horizontal line). It doesn't matter what price has done earlier -- just that one single bar is what is important to you? For example, if price has been drifting slowly downward for an hour and suddenly makes a 30 pip bear candle, you would be alert for a setup to occur? Same for a bull candle? And does that 30-40 pips have to occur in one bar or could it be, maybe over 4 or 5 bars?

Are you using the 30-40 pip size because it is larger relative to the previous candles, or is there something special about that size? For instance, if most of the earlier candles were running 20-25 pips in size would the "swing bar" need to be 50-60 pips or what? Or do you say; that last bar was 28 pips and less than 30 is no go. I mean, if the earlier price action was choppy and the bars were a lot longer you would be dealing with a different situation than if it was a quiet period of consolidation where price suddenly increased in volatility, right?

All I'm looking for is a set of clear-cut rules that make it easier to pick out the high probability setups from the many others that happen during the day.

Does that make sense?

Thanks for your help.

Dave,
All your concerns are respectable and valid I used to have them all aswell, BUT it all changed for me once i really belived that 1. You can not predict this markets next coming up minute, 2. Losing should be part of my agenda, 3. This is a game of probability.
It sounds like a rerun but If you truly absurb it and dedicate yourself and really act on it, then, it will wipe out all the concerns that you just mentioned above.
With Feb's simple system you need to not worry about wining ratio, you may end up with 3 winning trades out of 10 but be 40 pips+ on your bottom line. All you do is just keep testing the market for runners or to get 20-30 pips tp's, especially if your trading the 5min chart. As Feb says, you are trading noise in 5min, but once you get the hang of it, and become a master of ONE TIME FRAME CHART, it does not look like your trading noise anymore.

About the swings, 30-40 pips is what i got from Feb which he got from some very strong source and I trust it, in 5 min chart such move is valid to qualify a swing (it makes sense to me), how strong or weak? I dont know that, I dont think anybody knows that all we know it could be start of someting that could be great and the odds are on our favore. I do not pay any attention to the candel shapes or size unless it is something unusuall which it normally happens mostly during major news times (which I am out). If market is choppy or consolidating I wait for it to get out of it with a qualified swing of the levels.
I truly belive it all strats to come together as more experince you'll gain and more screen time you devote to howmuch better you'll get at reading the market, practice parctice and some more practice. I personally keep it simple, I definatly need to see a clear swing that I feel good about, best ones are multiple of nice full or semi full candels. If price has slowly created the 30-40 pips swing, i dont count on it too much I will wait for stronger continues move. I also pay very high attention to the pullback if the retrac is longer than 60% I wait for a better setup or if i take this type of trades I lower my risk trade manage it much tighter and surely read for the panic button.
There are not any set on stone or clear cut rules for me. I just keep them in the mix and try to make the best judgment under the heat. I belive, as more and more experince i'll gain i will be making better decision on the long run. I look at it as a long race and learning the curves.
There is nothing you or I or anyone else can do to avoid or predict the the fake outs consistently, I asked that very same question from Feb when we were trading live (we got stoped on some particular trade) and he said the same thing to me as i just mentioned to you above and he also said: You simply exit for a loss by cutting that loser short, wipe your wounds and get ready to battle again and sooner or later you will catch that runner or strings of small tp's and you'll come out ahead on your bottom line. Thats what exactly has happened to me and i hope it will continue.

And Dave, this is my humble advise to you and I hope I am not introding, my friend, get ride of ALL and I mean ALL your indicators, if you have not done so already, they only predict the past. It will help you to train your eyes to read the market naked. I only say that because i remember you from reading the treads when i joined sometime ago that howmuch you were attached to your indicators, to follow this system or most any PA systems you need to trade naked so there is no second guessing involved. I got this very same advise from Feb and it has changed my trading life, i see things that i never saw before.

sorry for the long post, as a trader I am no where near where Feb and some of other guys such as valued member like your buddy Acetrade's are (by the way where are you Ace we miss you in here, hope to see you back in the thread) I am only transfering what I have learned from Feb and others in here and it is working magneficently for me and I am greatly thankfull.
I hope I made any sense to you and was helpfull.

I will be trading actively on monday starting London session, I'll be posting chart setups and trading live, I hope eveyone will join me so we all can learn from eachother.
We miss you Feb, I hope your healthy and well.

Good trading to all.

Thanks fxachilies! Your answer is very informative for me too. It helps me better to understand all the nuances. I see monday is bank holiday, so my job is today to read this thread very carefully one and one more time!



Good trading to all.

Well explained, thank you...waiting for your post..today.

Hi everyone,s
Here is a possible setups right before london open, I have my order inplace lets see what happens.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif

Here we go boys, now my sl moves up 10 pips so, my risk is 2:1

Hi fxachikies! I really need your answer.

today, when you bought eur/usd did you add 3 pips to ASK? On my chart I had HI of candle - 1,3202, so I did add 4 pips spred(ask- 1,3206) , and 3 pips for entry - and I had my entry price 1,3209.

Did I this right? Please, give me your opinion. Is there a mistake there? And excuse me my english. :-)


Good trading to all.