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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #6,841
  • Mar 26, 2009 1:25pm Mar 26, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting jacko
Hi all,

In a disturbing development which has implications for future sales of US Bonds, “ the British Government admitted yesterday that, for the first time since 1995, investors had been unwilling to buy the full complement of its so-called gilt-edged bonds at one of its official auctions.
Gilts are the financial instrument it sells to investors to fund public spending
[color=blue]Fears are growing on the financial markets that Britain may not be able to repay the billions of pounds in debt it is amassing...
Yes, it makes absolutely no sense to buy the long bond below break even. It is trading at 3.66 now. Long term inflation is 3.5. Add taxes that works out to be 4.62. That's almost 100 basis points below break even. This is ridiculous!

The 5yr auction yersterday tailed 5.1 basis points. 1bp in the 5yr paper is 1-1/2 over 32. So 5bp is 7 1/2 over 32. Let's make it 8/32 just because it's easy to calculate and I'm a lazy person. So for every million paper they sold they paid an extra $2,500. They sold $34 billion, which means the taxpayers paid $85,000,000 extra for a 5yr paper! Think about that.

7yr today went rather well but indirect bids were way below average.

I remember 10yr was trading around 2.95-3.00 level before the QE annoucement and dived into the 2.50s, now it's trading back up at 2.74. And didn't they just start QE yesterday? That didn't keep the yield low, did it?

I think they're done issuing papers now until early April, it'll be interesting to see what happens then.
Take a report.
  • #6,842
  • Mar 26, 2009 2:07pm Mar 26, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting jacko
Hi all,

In a disturbing development which has implications for future sales of US Bonds, “ the British Government admitted yesterday that, for the first time since 1995, investors had been unwilling to buy the full complement of its so-called gilt-edged bonds at one of its official auctions.
Gilts are the financial instrument it sells to investors to fund public spending
[color=blue]Fears are growing on the financial markets that Britain may not be able to repay the billions of pounds in debt it is amassing...

HI Gang

The UK treasury saw strong demand at the bond auction, a day after the first failed auction in seven years
Investors bid for £2.98bn of the 13 year inflation-linked government the debt, more than the £1.1bn on offer, the debt management office said earlier.

The result is a reassuring after the treasury on Wednesday failed to sell all the 40 - year bonds it wanted to sell in a regular auction
The treasury said afterwards that the demand for it’s debt remained strong.

Saved at the bell for now.
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #6,843
  • Mar 26, 2009 2:27pm Mar 26, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting cowboying
HI Gang

The UK treasury saw strong demand at the bond auction, a day after the first failed auction in seven years
Investors bid for £2.98bn of the 13 year inflation-linked government the debt, more than the £1.1bn on offer, the debt management office said earlier.

The result is a reassuring after the treasury on Wednesday failed to sell all the 40 - year bonds it wanted to sell in a regular auction
The treasury said afterwards that the demand for it’s debt remained strong.

Saved at the bell for now.
I saw that too. Indeed, who the heck wants to hold a 40yr paper. Maybe inflation won't pick up in the shorter sector, but who knows what's going to happen in 10, 30yrs with all the money they're pumping in. It would be insane to buy the 30yr paper and get your 3.66 yield if you think inflation is going to 10% and on top of that, the government is going to tax you 60%, ha!
Inflation linked paper seems to be a better choice, for now.
Take a report.
  • #6,844
  • Mar 26, 2009 6:55pm Mar 26, 2009 6:55pm
What will trading the summer months be like this yr as compared to previous yrs? For the most part I trade very lightly during June, July & August & spend most of my time on the water & the beach, but there are times these months can offer some wide swings.


Any view from the floor?
____________________
  • #6,845
  • Mar 26, 2009 7:41pm Mar 26, 2009 7:41pm
As the dollar weakens gold and silver should benefit as confidence is surely lacking in the 3 stooges, Bernanke, Geithner and Obama. But the US$ has to weaken for gold to rise above $1,000. Gold and the US$ seem to be in competition.

Reading thru the opinions from around the globe shows a definite lack of respect and confidence in the US policies and along with that the US$.
You can view the ex Prime Minister and Treasurer of Australia's opinion of Geithner here - http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/obamas-economic-saviour-savaged-as-keating-lets-rip-20090306-8rk7.html?page=-1 and this is one of many apprehensive about the US management of the crisis like a Third World nation. Mainly propping up the US$ is a lack of an alternative but reading thru the news particularly regarding China and Russia, it sounds like plans are at least being discussed to replace the US$ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123780272456212885.html

I read somewhere that JP Morgan has huge short positions in gold right after the US Fed trillion $ announcement and that is what is keeping the price from rising.
Attached Image
History is written by the victors.
  • #6,846
  • Mar 27, 2009 3:51am Mar 27, 2009 3:51am
Money-RX,

Good post & info sources. That about sums it up. There is NO DOUBT there will be an attempt @ replacing the U.S. $, but will it happen who knows. There are some big players not just in the U.S., but abroad that are deeply involved in this move to eliminate the dollar. Obama has come across as supporting with words the dollar, but is that just for show while the plans go on? From the news sources I read & personal contacts I am finding it hard to find anyone that is supporting the three leading this mess. Lately I have notice televsion adds offering 100% mortgage financing for first time home buyers & the adds are saying don't worry about your credit score, we'll finance everyone. Back to the same process that started this financial disaster. Our goverment is hard @ work doing nothing that works as usual.
  • #6,847
  • Edited 4:54am Mar 27, 2009 4:41am | Edited 4:54am
Hello. if you have 50 mins to spare u may want to watch this documentary on Credit and Money



http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6182802717158469419
  • #6,848
  • Mar 27, 2009 8:19am Mar 27, 2009 8:19am
I thought this was worth posting. Hope you guys find this useful.....

Congressman Peter DeFazio introduced H.R. 1068: “Let Wall Street Pay for Wall Street's Bailout Act of 2009” on 13February2009. This bill imposes a 0.25% transaction tax on the “value of the sale and purchase of financial instruments such as stock, options, and futures contracts.” While HR1068 seeks to engender populist appeal by ostensibly exacting monetary retribution against the big Wall Street firms for wreaking havoc upon the American financial system, its effects will hurt EVERY American who trades professionally as well as the ordinary investor trying to save for the future. The 0.25% tax is invoked against the VALUE of every purchase AND sale of typical financial instruments, resulting in an egregious added cost borne by every American for each investment or trading transaction they make, even within the realm of an IRA or 401K account. It is particularly grievous that this tax is imposed upon the transaction itself, regardless of whether the purchase / sale generates a profit. The bill will have virtually no effect upon the behavior of the relatively few Wall Street executives whose reckless decisions contributed to the current financial crisis, as added costs would in all likelihood be passed on in some form to customers. Further, the bill would have the effect of diminishing capital provision, as it discourages investment to a degree even beyond the negative impact of capital gains taxation.
HR1068 MUST BE STOPPED!! THE BEST WAY TO ENSURE HR1068 NEVER BECOMES LAW IS TO MAKE YOUR OPPOSITION FORCEFULLY AND UNAMBIGUOUSLY KNOWN TO YOUR CONGRESSMEN AND SENATORS!!!
HR1068 is currently in Committee [House Ways and Means] for markup and debate, so Congress needs to hear from traders and investors quickly and massively in opposition. Further, the bill has already garnered air time in the media, thus it is gaining visibility.
Attached/below is a pre-composed letter response for your use in writing to your Congressmen and Senators. However, be advised that the most effective means of response in voicing protest regarding HR1068 is to call your Congressman's/Senators' office. The next most effective means of communication is via actual mail. The least effective [though still viable] means of communicating your displeasure regarding HR1068 is via email. You can obtain the contact information for your Congressman and Senators via http://www.govtrack.us/congress/. You can track the current status of HR1068 as it goes through the legislative process via http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-1068 (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-1068) .
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #6,849
  • Mar 27, 2009 10:51am Mar 27, 2009 10:51am
Quoting BullsAndBear
I thought this was worth posting. Hope you guys find this useful.....

[font=Arial][size=2]Congressman Peter DeFazio introduced H.R. 1068: “Let Wall Street Pay for Wall Street's Bailout Act of 2009” on 13February2009. This bill imposes a 0.25% transaction tax on the “value of the sale and purchase of financial instruments such as stock, options, and futures contracts.” While HR1068 seeks to engender populist appeal by ostensibly exacting monetary retribution against the big Wall Street firms for wreaking havoc upon the American financial system,...
The Chinese A share market has a similar tax on transactions. Though it's much lower, currently sitting at 0.1%, and only taxable on sales. 0.5% round trip is going to kill the day trading business.

I wonder how many hedge funds are going to stay in the US if this bill is imposed. Or worse, traders denouce their US citizenship to avoid taxation.
Take a report.
  • #6,850
  • Mar 27, 2009 12:38pm Mar 27, 2009 12:38pm
Quoting BullsAndBear
I thought this was worth posting. Hope you guys find this useful.....

.
Bulls-
Thanks for the info. Just contacted my congressman. (I'm the 2nd largest employer in his district..he'll usually at least listen)
He's on the Ways and Means commission where this is currently. Hopefully it doesn't make it out of there. Most bills never make it past committee. Let's hope this is one of them.
  • #6,851
  • Mar 27, 2009 3:57pm Mar 27, 2009 3:57pm
Looks like the daily trend was on the money...

http://i39.tinypic.com/2qcdpmv.gif
TRO
  • #6,852
  • Mar 27, 2009 8:26pm Mar 27, 2009 8:26pm
A confusing chart with all those lines.
Keep it simple.
  • #6,853
  • Mar 28, 2009 7:03am Mar 28, 2009 7:03am
BullsandBears,
That is a load of outstanding info you shared & I will be on the phone to my local political leaders on monday morning. This tax is just another attempt @ shutting down the capitalist system & is the only answer the socialist running congress & the whitehouse can devise in an attepmt @ solving a problems. This bill will do nothing to punish those that are causing the problems & they willl skate away with the money as they are now doing.
It would appear, with this bill everybody but the real culprits will be punished.

If the hedge funds are driven out of the U.S., they can blame themselves as they in droves supported "O" & the socialist team he has put together. About all that can be done is contact your congressman or congresswoman & in four your use better judgement when exercising your right to vote & remove these people. In the meantime, about all we can do is keep our chins up, trade & these situations just might improve in four years.

Thanks for sharing this information & all you post.

I just can't help but wonder how many members help elect these socialist?

" Our greatest glory is not in Never Falling, but in Rising Everytime we fall "

Confucius
__________________________________________
AceTrader
  • #6,854
  • Mar 28, 2009 10:37am Mar 28, 2009 10:37am
Hi Everyone,

This is my first post here, and I have enjoyed reading all of the excellent information.

Although I am new here, and new to trading, I have discovered that I posses an uncanny ability to control the market's price action.

Since I am an unselfish person, I thought I would take the time to share my abilities with the rest of you:

1) If PA is moving up, and I want it to reverse, I simply enter a long position. Presto! PA will immediately reverse without fail.

2) Conversely, if PA is moving down I enter a short position, and price will surely reverse and head for the moon.

Although it is personally gratifying to wield such great powers, I have yet to figure out how to use it for financial gain.

Maybe hanging around in here for a while will help.

Humbly,

DemoDrama
  • #6,855
  • Mar 28, 2009 11:40am Mar 28, 2009 11:40am
Quoting DemoDrama
Hi Everyone,

... I have discovered that I posses an uncanny ability to control the market's price action.

1) If PA is moving up, and I want it to reverse, I simply enter a long position. Presto! PA will immediately reverse without fail.

2) Conversely, if PA is moving down I enter a short position, and price will surely reverse and head for the moon.

Although it is personally gratifying to wield such great powers, I have yet to figure out how to use it for financial gain.

DemoDrama

LOL, just continue doing it and tell us whenever you do it and we will trade opposite you.... and then we will make money and maybe you can get commision from us hehehehe

so how's that making a money for you
There's a POT of GOLD at the END of the RAINBOW!!
  • #6,856
  • Mar 28, 2009 4:42pm Mar 28, 2009 4:42pm
Wow, that's a great idea! We could open a trading room, and I will work on demo, and someone else could trade my live account in the opposite direction for me...
  • #6,857
  • Mar 28, 2009 4:54pm Mar 28, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting DemoDrama
Hi Everyone,

This is my first post here, and I have enjoyed reading all of the excellent information.

Although I am new here, and new to trading, I have discovered that I posses an uncanny ability to control the market's price action.

Since I am an unselfish person, I thought I would take the time to share my abilities with the rest of you:

1) If PA is moving up, and I want it to reverse, I simply enter a long position. Presto! PA will immediately reverse without fail.

2) Conversely, if PA is moving down I enter a short position, and...
There is a clear logic to it, if you want to check. You are not correctly reading the price, atleast 70% of the time. It still goes up when you buy and goes down when you sell. If you don't beleive me, go back and check all the trades you entered in last week. Just make sure, you give equal time opportunity to both the moves in evolving their patterns. You are discriminating against the move that took place after you entered, give it some time to evolve. You were right 70% of the time when you entered, but wrong 70% of the time when you exited.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #6,858
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:25pm Mar 28, 2009 5:25pm
Thank you Chicky.

To be serious, I have made some very good calls, and looking back at those entries and exits on the chart are like works of art. But I don't do this enough, and that is my dilemma.

The good news is that I know this, and will pursue adjustments until I get it right.

I don't want to bore everyone by laying the praise on too thick, but I am quite impressed with the caliber of traders here, and their willingness to share their knowledge and experience.

It is greatly appreciated, and I hope to be able to someday contribute something useful myself.
  • #6,859
  • Edited 5:40pm Mar 28, 2009 5:38pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting DemoDrama
Thank you Chicky.

To be serious, I have made some very good calls, and looking back at those entries and exits on the chart are like works of art. But I don't do this enough, and that is my dilemma.

The good news is that I know this, and will pursue adjustments until I get it right.

I don't want to bore everyone by laying the praise on too thick, but I am quite impressed with the caliber of traders here, and their willingness to share their knowledge and experience.

It is greatly appreciated, and I hope to be able to someday contribute something...
DemoDrama,

Welcome to the zoo.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #6,860
  • Mar 28, 2009 5:46pm Mar 28, 2009 5:46pm
Quoting BullsAndBear
I thought this was worth posting. Hope you guys find this useful.....

Congressman Peter DeFazio introduced H.R. 1068: “Let Wall Street Pay for Wall Street's Bailout Act of 2009” on 13February2009. ... .
one of my favorite bloggers has a few posts about this topic. Check out what he had to say last week about it here ---> AndrewUnknown (http://andrewunknown.wordpress.com/2009/03/08/retail-traders-nefarious-i-bankers/)

It's unbelievable how the government is completely shameless with their "if it makes money tax it double" policy. Below is one of my favorite comics - you can substitute Obama with any US politician and have the same result.

[IMG]file:///C:/Users/MICHAE%7E1/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG][IMG]file:///C:/Users/MICHAE%7E1/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot-1.jpg[/IMG]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: barack-obama-political-cartoon.jpg Size: 102 KB
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