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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #1,241
  • Mar 25, 2009 9:54pm Mar 25, 2009 9:54pm
Quoting AstonDan
Big Picture

Monthly undergone huge bullish phase before retracing to the 50% Fib level from which it seems to have found support. Price rejected at 0.9500 level twice.

Daily
A 48 hour hammer, a DBLHC, a BUOB, call it what you like (although it doesn't strictly meet criterea for the latter two yet, i don't get too hung up on it - price looks bullish and if it can push just a little higher before close, that's end of IMO). Price rejected by 0.9020 and pushing up.

Buy Stop would have to go around 0.9375 with Stop Loss at 0.9160. Big...
You're doing good, Dan. What happened to looking at the BOSS? You looked at the BIG BOSS but not at the BOSS. Don't forget, it's the BOSS that tells the Daily what to do.

I don't like making one candle out of two for the simple reason that the 1st candle is HISTORY, it's gone. I only like to work with the most recent PA.

However, if you did the 2 day candle thingy, it would be a neutral doji. The wick is way too long for a "hammer" type bar which it cannot be in that position.

Ther is no PA for me on this Dan - be careful of looking for something that isn't there (Losing trade). The last candle is way too long and the buyers were firmly rejected.

I would not be surprised to see an IB before it follows Oprah's boobs. If we get an IB, then we get a discount entry price - right?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,242
  • Mar 25, 2009 9:56pm Mar 25, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting pizdun
"Because without large profitable trades, eventually even small losses will break you."

wow i think that statement perfectly sums up my trading so far! need to wake up and rethink the plan


So, YOU"RE the one that's reading my posts. Thank you.

Yes, WAKE UP, PAY ATTENTION, let your profits run!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,243
  • Mar 25, 2009 10:03pm Mar 25, 2009 10:03pm
Quoting Naws
USD/CAD Daily

Price has found support at the upper area of the 1.2150 support, as well as the upward trendline. A bullish harami pattern is also forming, we will have to wait just a couple hours for the third candle to close above the second for confirmation. A reasonable target looks like 1.2600-1.2700 although we are trading into the 20 and 50 MA.

Attachment
Again, my 30 second "LESS IS MORE" quick glance tells me:

Immediate Monthly momentum is DOWN
Immediate Weekly momentum is DOWN
Daily trend is DOWN

And you want to trade LONG? How much will you bet?

I'll save you the time and effort and send my bank account number so that you can direct deposit!

Me thinkest thou hast been makinest too many candlesticks
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,244
  • Mar 25, 2009 10:09pm Mar 25, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting strat
Good observations and analysis Dan, BUT on my data it isn't a DBHLC, the tops are 4 pips apart but it is a BEOB. Notice the location of the BEOB -right where the sellers have gone for their coffee break. Therefore, in this location it is a ............ candle.

There is some VERY important support below which you did not see/mention.
DR. Strat,

Would you consider 1.1018ish an important support as well as the obvious psych level at 1.1000? I know you don't use zones but are they too close together to separate?
  • #1,245
  • Mar 25, 2009 10:32pm Mar 25, 2009 10:32pm
Quoting PaulKing
[font=Trebuchet MS]Hi Strat & 'team Strat'

Its taken me a long while to catch up with the amazing velocity of posts, as one of those who requested Strat start a thread I feel very guilty about my lack of contribution. Now, I realise that there are numerous mentions of 'skim reading' and taking the time to not only read but to understand, learn & internalise the valuable information contained in the links posted to this thread & appreciate that I haven't invested sufficient time on that yet.

However having made it to the end I thought I would...
Paul - I'm so glad you found us, I really am. However, I will NOT let you do to yourself what you did before so pay attention.

"'appreciate that I haven't invested sufficient time on that yet. "'

If you have recognised you don't know enough then STOP there and go back to the Path of Learning until you do. There is NO RUSH for you to jump into this, Paul. As long as people have to buy and sell things, these markets will always be here. There are brokers, banks, institutions, funds, hedges, trading houses, MMs all waiting to STEAL your money. Don't even THINK about competing with them until you KNOW and are VERY CONFIDENT in what you're doing.

Would you try and climb a mountain without all the training on safety, without all the correct equipment, without a guide, without practicing on smaller hills first, without a weather report?

I hope not, but that's what you're trying to do here, Paul.

Since I wrote the opportunity post, which I also qualified by saying something like if they stay as they are now, market conditions have changed. There are very few opportunities now - way too many long candles.

Paul, learn this very thoroughly, you will be making decisions on what you see and feel - there are no crutches (indicators) to lean on. You cannot just jump in like this. As you know, Nicola was one of the "stars" at the other place but it has taken her time to adjust to this and, read her psycho post - there are so many things we have to fight, don't make lack of education one of them.

There are many in your position, Paul, so don't feel bad. Keep asking questions on here because there are people who have gone through what you're going through, some still going through it and some who still don't have a clue what they're doing but are still working at it. Don't jump in until your light bulb has gone on.

Please don't do to me what you did on the other place - please.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,246
  • Mar 25, 2009 10:33pm Mar 25, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting strat
Again, my 30 second "LESS IS MORE" quick glance tells me:

Immediate Monthly momentum is DOWN
Immediate Weekly momentum is DOWN
Daily trend is DOWN

And you want to trade LONG? How much will you bet?

I'll save you the time and effort and send my bank account number so that you can direct deposit!

Me thinkest thou hast been makinest too many candlesticks
Thanks for the feedback, it helps to get a an experienced perspective on my thoughts

What do you think about gbp/jpy? The momentum is still bullish and it bounced of the 141 support area
  • #1,247
  • Mar 25, 2009 10:41pm Mar 25, 2009 10:41pm
Quoting elitejets
To be perfectly honest I did not use a playable daily bar. I have a really strong resistance level on the weekly at 85.90
I put a buy order above that level and a stop underneath it.
I got kicked in on Monday when it broke up through it. Today it came right down and turned on a dime at my level and went up again. I thought I was going to be out for nothing so was happy to see the level held and up she went again.
All the yen crosses looked so strong ...
I probably in a lot of trouble with Strat now but that is the honest answer.
Nicola

PS I...
Nothing at all wrong with that ATC - your strong resistance has now become support
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,248
  • Mar 25, 2009 10:52pm Mar 25, 2009 10:52pm
Quoting rogueforex
DR. Strat,

Would you consider 1.1018ish an important support as well as the obvious psych level at 1.1000? I know you don't use zones but are they too close together to separate?
Exactly right, Excel Wiz. I just round everything up to the nearest round number (00, 50 and 25) to bring me in line with the big boys.

My 1.1014, your 1.1018, I have rounded up as 1.1000
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,249
  • Mar 25, 2009 11:04pm Mar 25, 2009 11:04pm
Quoting Naws
Thanks for the feedback, it helps to get a an experienced perspective on my thoughts

What do you think about gbp/jpy? The momentum is still bullish and it bounced of the 141 support area
Yes, just waiting for more confirming PA and a better entry price
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,250
  • Mar 26, 2009 1:20am Mar 26, 2009 1:20am
Quoting strat
Great our kid - that's two of the band put together!

The best drummer for me was Keith Moon of the Who
There were/are a lot of really good rock drummers, but when I put on some older jazz CDs (as I am today) and hear guys like Art Blakey, Max Roach, Joe Morello, etc. they just blow me away
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #1,251
  • Mar 26, 2009 1:50am Mar 26, 2009 1:50am
The Rule of 4 is telling me to place sell stops below USD/CAD and USD/CHF. Do I need to say more?
Bang.
  • #1,252
  • Mar 26, 2009 2:55am Mar 26, 2009 2:55am
Quoting AminAS
The Rule of 4 is telling me to place sell stops below USD/CAD and USD/CHF. Do I need to say more?
But you are now already into the London trading session - you should have had orders placed before the London open
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,253
  • Mar 26, 2009 3:45am Mar 26, 2009 3:45am
Quoting AminAS
The Rule of 4 is telling me to place sell stops below USD/CAD and USD/CHF. Do I need to say more?

Maybe, where would your entry point be? Looks to me like both of these pairs have pretty strong S/R areas just below current level. I would want to see a pretty good break of these areas before entering and then see what other resistance there may be to a strong move down.

Looks to me like entry on USDCHF would need to be <1.1100 and on USDCAD <1.2125 or so.

Strat - would you look for a break and retrace on entry like this or take it on the first break?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf thu.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad thu.gif Size: 20 KB
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #1,254
  • Mar 26, 2009 4:21am Mar 26, 2009 4:21am
  • #1,255
  • Edited 4:33am Mar 26, 2009 4:32am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting bjohn34
Maybe, where would your entry point be? Looks to me like both of these pairs have pretty strong S/R areas just below current level. I would want to see a pretty good break of these areas before entering and then see what other resistance there may be to a strong move down.

Looks to me like entry on USDCHF would need to be <1.1100 and on USDCAD <1.2125 or so.

Strat - would you look for a break and retrace on entry like this or take it on the first break?
First of all for me, there is no price action telling me to put a trade on but that's just me. I need to see better price action and also get a better entry. There were too many pairs with long candles as set up bars, these being two of them and I just don't like long candles (unless I'm already in the trade). As I posted earlier, these long candles often throw out IBs and I would rather trade off those.

USDCHF - There is definitely support around 1.1150, and although I think it will break, I would like to see something telling me that. The stronger support for me is at big psycho 1.1000

USDCAD - The support she is resting on, 1.2215, has been tested as both support and resistance many times from October last year so, this level means a lot to this pair. It made 14 attempts at it in December last year before it finally broke through in January. Then look what she had to do to break through it - she had to go back a long way, build up a huge head of steam (energy) and take a huge run at it and still couldn't make it. Then step back apace and she finally made it. Ever since then, it has been strong support for her. This being the case, and since she is a funny old pair, our Miss USDCAD, I need to see that important level of 1.2215 breaking before I get my wallet out. Then, 100 pips lower, you have the same problem.

Now just watch her put in one of her long bars as if to say "you don't know what you're talking about!"
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,256
  • Mar 26, 2009 4:34am Mar 26, 2009 4:34am
Quoting strat
Good observations and analysis Dan, BUT on my data it isn't a DBHLC, the tops are 4 pips apart but it is a BEOB. Notice the location of the BEOB -right where the sellers have gone for their coffee break. Therefore, in this location it is a ............ candle.

There is some VERY important support below which you did not see/mention.
Thanks Strat, is the area you mean where i marked the grey box around 1.1095?

And yes, it has dawned on me this week that looking at the market during the day is what is affecting my approach to plan. If i look and i'm in profit, i move to lock it in - this, i think, is a BIG hurdle for me to overcome and stems from FEAR and GREED.

Wish me luck!

Cheers
Dan
  • #1,257
  • Mar 26, 2009 5:01am Mar 26, 2009 5:01am
Quoting AstonDan
Thanks Strat, is the area you mean where i marked the grey box around 1.1095?

And yes, it has dawned on me this week that looking at the market during the day is what is affecting my approach to plan. If i look and i'm in profit, i move to lock it in - this, i think, is a BIG hurdle for me to overcome and stems from FEAR and GREED.

Wish me luck!

Cheers
Dan
No it is psycho 1.1000

If you like playing with it during the day then maybe you should drop down to H4 or H1 and then you can do a lot of playing.

Yes it is fear and greed, all the psychological emotions and the kitchen sink thrown in too probably because you don't TRUST your plan.

Luck is not one of the ingredients for success in trading
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,258
  • Mar 26, 2009 5:03am Mar 26, 2009 5:03am
Quoting strat
If you like playing with it during the day then maybe you should drop down to H4 or H1 and then you can do a lot of playing.
Not a chance, anything less than daily moves too fast for me now - and to think i used to try and play the 15M game!
  • #1,259
  • Mar 26, 2009 8:57am Mar 26, 2009 8:57am
(Nicole, now, on my charts there is PA. Don't worry about names for S & R or calling it PPZ - call it what you like as long as you identify it.

Maybe you knew it and didn't mention it, but there is a big psycho level below - can you see it?)

Hi Strat - Excellent Re PPZ etc...re level yes I can..I personally think that the next psycho level is in area of 1.1107 & 1.1042 - rounded to 1.1100, then 1.1000. heading south. My bar closed a BEOB. I see that we've had 2 tests of the high in the range of 1.1310 within the last 5 bar formation. The Daily 20&50 have crossed down, BOSS 20 is down and overall 4 bars have tested 1.1162 & the BOSS 50. To me it's indicating a downward movement if the next bar can break the 1.1162. You can see where I have my SL and Sell order.
RISK:- The pips I accept to lose are 207;
My plan is:
Target 1 -1.1100 once this is achieved, to put a trailing stop on
Target 2 -1.1000
Target 3 -1.0900
Target 4 -1.0700

Strat, a question.. Trailing Stops...do you use them at all? My problem with them is that if e.g. I put a Trailing Stop on at 80, I will protect the profit made. However the ATR of this pair is 181 over the last 2 weeks. In your opinion is it better to trail or keeping moving a fixed Stop?

many thanks, Nicole
Attached Image
  • #1,260
  • Mar 26, 2009 9:31am Mar 26, 2009 9:31am
Quoting FxPippy
(Nicole, now, on my charts there is PA. Don't worry about names for S & R or calling it PPZ - call it what you like as long as you identify it.

Maybe you knew it and didn't mention it, but there is a big psycho level below - can you see it?)

Hi Strat - Excellent Re PPZ etc...re level yes I can..I personally think that the next psycho level is in area of 1.1107 & 1.1042 - rounded to 1.1100, then 1.1000. heading south. My bar closed a BEOB. I see that we've had 2 tests of the high in the range of 1.1310 within the last 5 bar formation. The Daily...
To Trail or Not To Trail - that is the question

Nicole, I must have tried every stop that's been thought of. As I posted earlier, it is all about preference. It also depends where you are in a trade. If you are early in a trade, then you want as tight a stop as PA and your MM allows. When you have profit locked in and are in a trend a la EURJPY, you want to give it room to breathe by trailing behind each swing but that can leave a lot on the table. You can trail by a stop above the high of two days ago or 3 days ago. You can even try PSAR.

If the ATR is 181, then if you really want to trail, that is what it should be trailed by but that is a lot to give back.

You can use all these methods and then use a PA signal in the reverse direction to get you out rather than wait to be taken out

If the question is trail using your brokers platform then I personally don't like doing it. I prefer trailing manually at the end of each day. I give enough to brokers without giving them CONTROL over my positions.

Sorry it wasn't the answer you were looking for but I hope you get something out of it
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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