iiivb - LiveTrades

So far:

RECENTLY CLOSED TRADES:

none

RECENTLY OPENED TRADES:

nzdusd long -7

ACTIVE TRADES:

gbpjpy long +334
usdjpy long +113
eurjpy long +109
eurgpb short -3
usdchf long +37

Very impressive numbers..... So how long are you in trades. I know you said that you are medium to long range. What time frame are those ranges-days, weeks, months.....

I use all kind of frames... but the ones here are specially based on monthly and/or weekly basis... so in theory, a trade is expected to last at least 1 week, but of course, that is only theory.

Well, some people have asked me about my indicators I use. And I must say the following:

My experience is that there is no such a thing like a holly grail or a TRUELY reliable system that you can SCRIPT and let the machine tells you good buy and sell opportunities.

You can have an scripted EA, and work just fine, but YOU GOT TO BE THE ONE THAT TAKES DECISIONS based on what the machine CANNOT CONSIDER.

It is very useful to have a good EA, but that is it, IT IS ONLY A TOOL!

For example, here there are VERY GOOD EA's. BUT the difference between those who use it and have success, is with no doubt, the personal talent and/or experience of knowing WHEN TO IGNORE A BUY OR SELL SIGNAL, maybe they are good too in taking the INVERT EA's recommendation.

I DO NOT USE INDICATORS THE MOST PART OF TIMES. I have learnt to use RAW PRICE ACTION. But this is a knownledge that cannot be shared. Why? Because price action the ultimate abstract concept. The closest thing to that is maybe learning to read candlesticks... but... price actions goes FAR BEYOND.

If you are interested in a SYSTEM you can script, maybe this is not the thread you are looking. I am gere almost only for sharing my trades AND MY INSIGHTS OF THE MARKET.

The INSIGHT OF THE MARKET is the truely useful part of my thread. Why? Because using that INSIGHT you can decide by yourself (either if you are using a tool like a EA'S or whatever) the trades.

I WILL NEVER GO AGAINST MY INSIGHT. It is to say that if I say: "USD/MXN is BEARISH", I am going SHORT. If I say it is NEUTRAL I WON'T take any trade, and if I say it is BULLISH, I will go LONG.

I will add EXPLICITLY the time frame, so that could help you trade YOUR OWN STYLE. Belive me, even if you trade only 5m charts, IT IS VERY USEFUL TO KNOW THE MAIN TREND ON 4H for example. You can have that famous RRI (Reward/Risk Reward) calculated much more accurately. Why? Because you will know if that RRR is being TRENDWISE, or ANTI-TRENDWISE. That could change the point of view of a very "safe" RRR trade of 4:1, to a very RISKY 4:1 trade.

I just decided to post my explicit trades to let you know that my system works. That is all. From now on, I will only concentrate of giving you the insight of the market (as I explained above) with its timeframe. This thread is inteded to give you MORE information to HELP you trade and decide YOUR OWN STYLE OF TRADING. Of course I will no hesitate to share my knownledge and experience with all of you.. but... YOU HAVE TO POSE QUESTIONS... OK?

Forex is a wonderful world where THERE IS NO RIGHT WAY TO TRADE. You just have to decide your own style (of course, it takes time to find a profitable style...) and you will profit from them.

Any comments?

4H MARKET INSIGHT:

Bullish:

GBP/JPY
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
GBP/USD

Bearish:

EUR/GBP

Neutral:

USD/CAD

Your nzd/usd is accurate as I'm up 20 pips. I am more inclined to short term trades but I like the idea of long term trades with higher potentials. How many lots do you usually purchase on your trades? Do you purchase differently if you plan on trading for a week or month?

I am happy you are up 20 pips!

I have a reason of why choosing longer timeframes rather than short ones.

Even though it is profitable to make several trades a week with small profits each, sometimes the markets (like today) barely moved -AUDUSD maybe the only exception-, the real TRENDS are more clear when we look larger time frames. In the long run -and I am willing to make FOREX my way of living- I think it is less stressful and equally -and maybe more- profitable to watch longer time frames. For example, if you use 4H charts, you dont have to be every minute looking at the screen and getting stressed because of a little reversal of your trade, and you would have time to do whatever thing you want.

Now imagine opening and closing trades one ONE TIME A DAY.. you literally will have 24 hours for you... that meaning you could study, work-out, write, watch tv, being with your children... ALL DAY LONG... that is what i call REAL FINANCIAL FREEDOM.

At least, I am aiming for this kind of independence.

About lot sizing and time frames is interesting. All depends on your account size, your leverage, your lot size and quantity flexibility of your broker. The point is that when you trade longer frames, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER LARGER OSCILLATIONS... for example... if you trade 5 minutes charts... maybe a fixed stop loss of 15 pips on EURUSD would be fine... but if you are trading daily charts on EURUSD, maybe the fixed stop loss would be 100 pips... if you OVERLEVERAGE your trades -very common when we are new @ forex- you have no chances of being a larger timeframes speculator -neither short-term, because OVERLEVERAGING is only the reflect of GREED-.

To avoid that we need to see this forex thing as an oridary bussiness. Your losses are FIXED AND VARIABLE COSTS... your profits are your SALES... and the difference between them makes you PROFITABLE OR NOT. There is no sense for overleveraging any trade, at least if you know you have a nice trading strategy, you would be sure you will succeed in the long run.

FOREX IS NOT "EASY" MONEY... IT COULD BE "FAST" MONEY... BUT NEVER "EASY"...

Well friends,

I just closed all my opened trades. I am going to take a long week-end, and won't be able to watch markets the rest of this week.

I will be back on Monday 00:00 GMT with my insights...

Yes... it does REALLY pay to wait and have patience... this week I made up 25% of income...

Have a nice weekend folks... See you on monday!

Well... this wild movements of carry trades the last 24 hours are very strange...

Any ideas?

Apparently there was a delay of "who-knows" what fundamental chinese data until closing its stock market...

Talk about China hasnt acheive to cool its economy... so maybe that explains JPY strength...

Yes... Shangai Stock Market is having a sharp sell-off... this explains the sudden JPY move

Could today happen the same plunge as the february's ending sell-off?

Chiese GCP-CPI was the fundmental data delayed... it is said shows specially strong number...

i am new to this board but not to the market I have been perusing this post and by the look of your positions you are trading the 5VBTP method

if you know what i mean let me know

thanks
Domician

Domician,

Well, actually I do not know that method. What is it about? You trade using it? Why you think I use that strategy?

Thanks!

iiivb

Incredible! Overall if we look 5 years from now. China has the power to sink worldwide markets!

I am the one of the defenders that Chinese economy will colapse sooner or later. Even before the U.S one. But in the meanwhile, China apparently causes the "fear" and "greed" that the U.S. does not any more.

Well, after thinking over again the uninterested reaction to recents posts, I have decided to continue my journal here @ FF.

I hope this helps somebody.

Again, comments and questions welcome.

iiivb

Apparently, Boris Yeltsin has died.

Source: Interfax & Reuters

eurusd: long

usdjpy: long

usdchf: short

gbpusd: long

eurjpy: long

eurgbp: neutral

gbpjpy: long

usdcad: short

audusd: long

nzdusd: long

How high do you see GU going with no news today?