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Commercial Member
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Joined Oct 2006
|1,158 Posts
If anybody of you follow CBoT futures contracts... overall grains... u have surely seen that since sept of this last year, grains shoot up, mainly due to ethanol demand in the US.
It is said that for the the future, there is the largest quantity of planting intentions since WWII, overall in Corn.
Well, if that is true, we can expect Corn futures adjust, correct and retrace this 6-month rally pretty soon...
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Commercial Member
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Joined Oct 2006
|1,158 Posts
There is some talk in the market that GBPUSD could manage to reach 2.0000... this is in agreement of what i am expecting for the CABLE in this month... i expect an upward trend... i think that 2.0000 is realistic... but is a HUGE psic. resistance...
I am expecting then that pound reaches in this week or the next the 2.0000 level... but what u think... will pound manage to clearly break that barrier... gonna stay around that level the rest of the month... or gonna retrace wildly... i think is gonna break it for some days.. and then oscillate near 2.0000, but below that price.
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Commercial Member
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Joined Oct 2006
|1,158 Posts
Jogariga,
Yes, it is profitable. Holidays are usually illiquid days. That means that there is few money on the table, so any big player can move the market really fast. The negative side is that also tends to be more volatile... so for example if someone wants to use very tight stop-losses, usually they will get hit.
I think any capital market -overall forex market- is profitable almost always...
What I think is that if you want to minimize illiquid seasons, you can always choose more liquid currencies... like eurusd and usdjpy... that should help to manage volatility a bit.
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Commercial Member
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Joined Oct 2006
|1,158 Posts
Simple jogariga...
I just do not use them!
I do use them... but are time stop-losses... in other words... depending on price action, i determine in how many hours I will hold a trade in the negative... but it has to do also with common sense.
I do not have a fixed form of using stop-losses, but they are not fixed.
Usually i watch price action and determine, in some cases, how many days I would tolerate a range-bound price action... and if my limit is reached.. I just simply close my trade.
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Commercial Member
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Joined Oct 2006
|1,158 Posts
That happens for a simple thing jogariga,
Institutional traders (hedge funds, commercial and central banks and quality speculators) usually put ther fixed stop-loss STRATEGICALLY, not TACTICALLYL. Tactically is read here as if a trade was the "big picture"... strategically is read here as if a trade was ONLY A SMALL PART of a "BIGGER" picture...
Usually tactics are the way strategics are reached. They determine -just like in a chess game- an overall strategy for ALL their portfolios. They are not wanting to scalp some pips or whatever. They have a longer-term view of markets.
Besides, LEVEL II information gives anyone the chance to see how many money is on the next best prices, and ocassionally, big players are looking for THIN LIQUIDITY conditions to buy or sell large quantities of currency just to hit those orders. When you have an illiquid markets means that with "x" amount of currency you can move -for example- "2x" the usual movement for that transaction. This is made sometimes by the so called "CLEARER BANKS" (because they CLEAR someone's way...) and sometimes by the "formal" players...
AND OF COURSE... when there are those kind of illiquid conditions, the major part of those stop-losses are shown for them as "bid" and "ask" layers then can easily take. Is strange that the market reaches this kind of illiquidity, but as a general idea of "why my stop loss was hit and then took off just on the right path" happens.
Using no fiexed stop-losses allow me to "hide" from "stop-loss hunters", or simply to avoid letting anyone know where I am willing to buy or sell. Remember, in this market overall, information is the ultimate tool... and letting know somebody where are your selling and buying intentions could be used "against" you...
We are insignificant fish in this shark-crowded sea... better to have them always on sight, us "chasing" them... not viceversa...