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  • #1,201
  • Mar 25, 2009 2:28pm Mar 25, 2009 2:28pm
http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/7956/gbpchf.gif

Price attempted to break out of the long term wedge it is confined to, but today's candle begs to differ. One thing that throws me off is the lack of volume on a move like this...

Price action is price action, and we have a bearish engulfing candle. Expect price to now test the bottom of the wedge, or the lower trendline. I have some S/R there too, making for support confluence, so look for valuable price action on this level.

The lack of volume we see in this move shows a lack of conviction from the sellers I would think, leading me to believe buyers will jump in on some valid PA at support. Me thinks the break will eventually be to the upside...
Bang.
  • #1,202
  • Mar 25, 2009 2:43pm Mar 25, 2009 2:43pm
I'll take EUR/USD and/or GBP/USD. Be home in an hour or so to look at my charts.
  • #1,203
  • Mar 25, 2009 3:21pm Mar 25, 2009 3:21pm
Big Picture
We have a Monthly BEOB (thanks FXPippy for bringing this to my attention) and price closed last week below the BOSS 20.

Daily
Huge bearish action last week saw price retrace down 50% Fib and BOSS 50 where it seems to have found support. Today we are looking at a DBHLC but again failing to push through the 50% Fib and the BOSS 50.

All signs are bearish but it appears to be struggling to find any sellers below the 1.1150 level. It may also encounter support around 1.1095 if it does break through (grey box).

Potential for a Sell Stop at 1.1130 with a first target at 1.0930 area. At this level, i would close half my position, move stop to BE and let the rest run. If it fell through the 1.1130 level...the floor's the limit.

Stop loss at 38% Fib @ 1.1350, although i've been reading some interesting stuff on Jim16 over the last day or two on stop losses and 'A' trades, so i'm evaluating these at the minute.

If price doesn't break the 1.1150 level, i won't be looking at ANY trade on this pair as ALL the signs to me are bearish, and i couldn't take a long with the monthly and weekly staring at me.

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  • #1,204
  • Mar 25, 2009 3:35pm Mar 25, 2009 3:35pm
Big Picture

Monthly undergone huge bullish phase before retracing to the 50% Fib level from which it seems to have found support. Price rejected at 0.9500 level twice.

Daily
A 48 hour hammer, a DBLHC, a BUOB, call it what you like (although it doesn't strictly meet criterea for the latter two yet, i don't get too hung up on it - price looks bullish and if it can push just a little higher before close, that's end of IMO). Price rejected by 0.9020 and pushing up.

Buy Stop would have to go around 0.9375 with Stop Loss at 0.9160. Big resitance at 0.9500 - 125 profit for a potential 215 pip loss? Doesn't sound good does it? But if it can then break through 0.9500 then we might see it have another go at 0.9800 which looks more appealing.

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  • #1,205
  • Mar 25, 2009 3:52pm Mar 25, 2009 3:52pm
"Because without large profitable trades, eventually even small losses will break you."

wow i think that statement perfectly sums up my trading so far! need to wake up and rethink the plan
  • #1,206
  • Mar 25, 2009 3:58pm Mar 25, 2009 3:58pm
Quoting AminAS
Price attempted to break out of the long term wedge it is confined to, but today's candle begs to differ. One thing that throws me off is the lack of volume on a move like this...

Price action is price action, and we have a bearish engulfing candle. Expect price to now test the bottom of the wedge, or the lower trendline. I have some S/R there too, making for support confluence, so look for valuable price action on this level.

The lack of volume we see in this move shows a lack of conviction from the sellers I would think, leading me to believe...
I agree with you Amin. I see higher lows and lower highs so it will break out at some point. There is a good candle tail off your trend (support) line too which makes me think it will break to the upside here.
Nicola
  • #1,207
  • Mar 25, 2009 4:08pm Mar 25, 2009 4:08pm
USD/CAD Daily

Price has found support at the upper area of the 1.2150 support, as well as the upward trendline. A bullish harami pattern is also forming, we will have to wait just a couple hours for the third candle to close above the second for confirmation. A reasonable target looks like 1.2600-1.2700 although we are trading into the 20 and 50 MA.

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  • #1,208
  • Mar 25, 2009 4:21pm Mar 25, 2009 4:21pm
Quoting strat
If this holds through the NY session , there are so many opportunities that we can pick the cream of the crop from:

AUDUSD
CHFJPY
EURUSD
USDCAD
USDJPY
AUDJPY
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
AUDCAD
GBPAUD

Wait for the NY close and don't jump the gun
Hi Strat & 'team Strat'

Its taken me a long while to catch up with the amazing velocity of posts, as one of those who requested Strat start a thread I feel very guilty about my lack of contribution. Now, I realise that there are numerous mentions of 'skim reading' and taking the time to not only read but to understand, learn & internalise the valuable information contained in the links posted to this thread & appreciate that I haven't invested sufficient time on that yet.

However having made it to the end I thought I would have a crack at some analysis & drawing some useful conclusions from this to lead to a trade. Strat kindly provided a list of candidates, of which I have looked at AUSUSD & EURUSD. Trouble is, I can't see the set ups on either!

I'll try to upload my EURUSD chart with this post.

In terms of analysis I see some resistance holding price below 1.374
Today's candle (admittedly not yet closed on my feed) has a lower low and a lower high than yesterday
We were in an up-trend from 4th March to 19th March
The low of the 19th March @ 1.3414 is holding as a support level, with more support @ 1.3337
The 50% fib level from the last move (down) is sitting mid way between these closest support & resistance levels
The 20 & her BOSS 20 are both underneath the price & are pointing up (they are some way below price @1.32)
The daily 20 crossed over the daily 50 on the 16th March, implying bullish sentiment

Trade Plan based on the above
If I was convinced the up-trend has now stopped, I'd look for shorts from the break of 1.3410, straight into the next support level, stop would need to be just above the high @1.3740. I am neither convinced or happy with the risk/reward, so I am not looking to trade this way
If I thought the trend was still up I'd be looking for a close above 1.3750 indicating the resistance may have become support: targeting 1.43, SL 1.3410, a much better R/R, but today's price action is no where near making this set up.

So, I don't see a trade either way on this one. Please can some-one offer to help me open my eyes?

best to all
Paul
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  • #1,209
  • Mar 25, 2009 4:52pm Mar 25, 2009 4:52pm
Hey PaulKing!
Hope you are well and good show for making it over here to FF. Hope you are well and trading well too.
I take it you have tried the FX Monkey school too then by the look of your charts?
Good guys, but their style is just not for me - I'm staying out here on the dailys from now on!
Speak soon
DC
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #1,210
  • Mar 25, 2009 5:09pm Mar 25, 2009 5:09pm
Quoting AminAS
The lack of volume we see in this move shows a lack of conviction from the sellers I would think, leading me to believe buyers will jump in on some valid PA at support. Me thinks the break will eventually be to the upside...
Just as a further thought to Amin's analysis, i have Fibs on my GBP/CHF chart from the low on 29 December to the high on 10 February. So what, i here yee say?

This puts current price (1.6300) just above the 50% Fib level and finding support there or thereabouts.

Sorry to but into your analysis Amin, just thought it interesting.

Cheers
Dan
  • #1,211
  • Mar 25, 2009 6:12pm Mar 25, 2009 6:12pm
Well i got nutin on the scopes captin......g
ASTONDAN
The 2 day pin has got a good nose off supp but the close needs to be higher and inside the "body" of the other bar.

The devil is always in the detail.
  • #1,212
  • Mar 25, 2009 6:23pm Mar 25, 2009 6:23pm
I love this thread....
  • #1,213
  • Mar 25, 2009 6:25pm Mar 25, 2009 6:25pm
Quoting el_duende
Ive been analysing some of my trades on my demo account and I am thinking Im not trading enough, im doing trades on the daily timeframes but in a week or 2 have only done a handful of trades. This made me wonder in an average week how many trades to you guys actually do?
Just winning ones lol
  • #1,214
  • Mar 25, 2009 6:29pm Mar 25, 2009 6:29pm
Quoting AstonDan
It's still pretty early (3pm GMT), but USDCHF is shaping up to be a nice DBHLC.

Strong support at 1.1150 but if it can move beneath this it has some way to fall (IMO).
Dont let Strat do this to you guys!!!! I can hear him laughing in his sleep.


Its really mean of him to get you all fired up and look at you calling a close at 3 in the arvo....


But dan if that close had been lower....man the decks........g
  • #1,215
  • Mar 25, 2009 6:33pm Mar 25, 2009 6:33pm
I even had a little sleep and a coffe for bar close time.........g
  • #1,216
  • Mar 25, 2009 6:38pm Mar 25, 2009 6:38pm
Hey Paul
It is good to see you here!!

I say that if you cannot see the trade you should not touch it.
EURUSD has massive upward momentum and has not really stopped going up yet.
It has not retraced any and has held all the levels it broke up through which says very bullish still to me.
Although it has tested the upper resistance three times they say that often the 4th time is when it goes.
Until it shouts out I am going down I think this one is still going up and will make a big W.

Nicola


Quoting PaulKing
Hi Strat & 'team Strat'



In terms of analysis I see some resistance holding price below 1.374
Today's candle (admittedly not yet closed on my feed) has a lower low and a lower high than yesterday
We were in an up-trend from 4th March to 19th March


Trade Plan based on the above
[FONT=Trebuchet...
  • #1,217
  • Mar 25, 2009 6:41pm Mar 25, 2009 6:41pm
Im with the fighter pilot on fiber.....

You can always wait for a nice bit of good old fashioned price action to show you the way......g
  • #1,218
  • Mar 25, 2009 6:49pm Mar 25, 2009 6:49pm
Quoting el_duende
Ive been trying to trade differently by thinking about my potential loss rather than the potential profits. In trying to set the amount of risk the stop loss is obviously important. What I would find helpful is advice on the techniques you guys use of setting a stop loss.
For me there is only 1 place for your stop loss

At the other end of the daily bar your playing........thats it

Select a % risk and divide that by your stop loss in pips and there you have your volume size........nice
  • #1,219
  • Mar 25, 2009 6:54pm Mar 25, 2009 6:54pm
Quoting Baba G
Im with the fighter pilot on fiber.....

You can always wait for a nice bit of good old fashioned price action to show you the way......g
LOL you are funny ...
I think the same about cable ... she is not yelling sell me yet ... she has held a very significant level above 1.45 (February's high).

Baba G - don't you like CHFJPY? There is a few miles of track left for the train there.
Nicola
  • #1,220
  • Mar 25, 2009 7:00pm Mar 25, 2009 7:00pm
Me thinks the break will eventually be to the upside...[/quote]

Dude that statement scares me a bit....

I tell you why pal cause it sounds like you got a bias rather than having an open mind.

You need an open mind to read the bars.

Do the analysis,like the coiling of the snake before the attack but wait for the trigger(price action)

The danger is you may start to talk yourself into a long,which she might do but looking at the BIG BOSS if she closes like this gbpswiss may be off the menue for some time........does this make sense pal?
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