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Eur/JPY 1,500 pip prediction

  • #21
  • Mar 25, 2009 10:34am Mar 25, 2009 10:34am
i'm afraid there's now a pin bar formation is forming on the daily. unless it reaches to 133 levels today that is.
  • #22
  • Edited 11:28am Mar 25, 2009 10:50am | Edited 11:28am
Quoting DanyalDenyo
i'm afraid there's now a pin bar formation is forming on the daily. unless it reaches to 133 levels today that is.
It sure looks ominous, but then again that's what stops are for.

I'll keep an eye on it and see if it develops into a short term reversal.

GREEN PIPS to All.

Edit: Of course if we can get a move above 132.60, and even better a close above that level, it will minimize the "pin bar" formation a bit and confirm some building of momentum.
  • #23
  • Mar 25, 2009 11:42am Mar 25, 2009 11:42am
Attached Image


It's beginning to look like that spike down to the 131 level might have been just a "Kiss Goodbye" to the old resistance level and changing it into support.

Of course a close above the 132.60 level would also help to negate yesterdays pin bar since today's "eye" would be higher than yesterday's body.

Time to watch closely.

GREEN PIPS to All.
  • #24
  • Mar 25, 2009 7:27pm Mar 25, 2009 7:27pm
Quoting DanyalDenyo
i'm afraid there's now a pin bar formation is forming on the daily. unless it reaches to 133 levels today that is.
I'm not too familiar with pin bars. But I see no evidence for bearishness unless there is a close on the daily chart below the 1.3050 region. We have been in a very steep uptrend on the daily chart without a correction for some time. I don't think it unreasonable for yesterday to be nothing more than a correction day. Also COT has recently switched net short the yen. The clean break above 131.04 validated a double bottom. Investors are not view the Yen has a safe haven currency any longer and it has recently lost its strong correlation to the risk environment.
  • #25
  • Mar 25, 2009 7:53pm Mar 25, 2009 7:53pm
Maxsmart,

What strike and expiration did you chose for your call option purchase?

GREEN PIPS to All
  • #26
  • Mar 25, 2009 8:00pm Mar 25, 2009 8:00pm
Strike @ 132 and expires April 16th. And I'm trading spot as well with the trend but taking profit at resistance areas.
  • #27
  • Mar 25, 2009 8:06pm Mar 25, 2009 8:06pm
Quoting Maxsmart
Strike @ 132 and expires April 16th. And I'm trading spot as well with the trend but taking profit at resistance areas.

In the money already and hopefully the move is just getting underway.

I like to see that you have a plan and are following it.

Success will be yours. If not on this trade, it will surely find you in the future.
  • #28
  • Mar 25, 2009 8:07pm Mar 25, 2009 8:07pm
I sold a put at 130 to expire on the 16th as well.
  • #29
  • Mar 25, 2009 8:08pm Mar 25, 2009 8:08pm
Quoting SmoothTrader
In the money already and hopefully the move is just getting underway.

I like to see that you have a plan and are following it.

Success will be yours. If not on this trade, it will surely find you in the future.
Thanks man same to you.
  • #30
  • Mar 27, 2009 7:46am Mar 27, 2009 7:46am
Well here we are coming to the end of another week and the EJ has slipped back below my two support lines. It's making an effort to regain them and only time will tell if it is successful before the weekend.

As I mentioned earlier, I personally am playing this rally with a trailing SL of 100 to 150 pips. This is because I am a TRADER by nature and I know that I can always get back into the market since I am usually on top of it (the market) throughout the day and night. This means that I am currently out of the market, but I am looking for a good entry. If this weren't Friday I probably would have taken a partial position @ 130.50.

Now I am waiting to see how the day settles out, but I am inclined to wait until the markets re-open next week to get back in. I still believe there will be 1500 pips plus to be made (but I always use stop losses to protect myself because the market is NEVER wrong, only traders who think they know more than the markets can be WRONG) so I am in no hurry to get back in right this minute.

To one and all, have a great weekend and may ALL of your PIPS be GREEN.
  • #31
  • Mar 27, 2009 7:50am Mar 27, 2009 7:50am
Quoting SmoothTrader
Well here we are coming to the end of another week and the EJ has slipped back below my two support lines. It's making an effort to regain them and only time will tell if it is successful before the weekend.

As I mentioned earlier, I personally am playing this rally with a trailing SL of 100 to 150 pips. This is because I am a TRADER by nature and I know that I can always get back into the market since I am usually on top of it (the market) throughout the day and night. This means that I am currently out of the market, but I am looking for a good...

Here's the chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ.png Size: 30 KB
  • #32
  • Mar 27, 2009 6:51pm Mar 27, 2009 6:51pm
I hadn't paid as much attention to the Japan FY end before this year, but I think unless you have a good system to scalp the chop... seems a bit dangerous. Lots of BIG money making year-end decisions... and if you look at a daily chart for this week, it is clear that there is a lack of agreement among the big money lol. I plan to stay the heck out of the way next year myself, and commence trading in April A nice annual spring vacation sounds just fine to me

One observation I will share for this week in EURJPY is that it REALLY (I mean REALLY) seems to have respected its pivots. In my experience it seems to track the majors (which respect pivots) must more so than it responds to its own pivot points. This could also be due to FY end, but it is noteworthy in any case. My trading is fully automated, and it is hard as heck to pragmatically make use of pivot information, but when I am awake it is much easier. Now if only I could forgo sleep entirely... heh

Everything is at your own risk! Cheers!
  • #33
  • Mar 28, 2009 11:05am Mar 28, 2009 11:05am
Attached Image


Well the week didn't end the way that I would have liked it to end. In fact it looks like it left us a big WARNING sign that the up move may be in trouble.

There is a nasty Pin Bar on the weekly, and it happens to be in a bad spot too. Does that mean that the move is over? Not necessarily, BUT it does mean that a great deal of CAUTION needs to be exercised.

It looks like options were definitely the way to go for long-term traders (defined risk with good profit potential). Or for those of us that "trade" the market, trailing stops.

Back to look at it some more Sunday night/Monday morning. Until then, enjoy the weekend.
  • #34
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:42pm Mar 29, 2009 1:42pm
One thing to remember about COT:

There were a lot of net long euro positions going into the week, so when the euro started to fall on Friday those longs had to rush in and cover their positions, and that likely accelerated the euro's decline.
  • #35
  • Mar 30, 2009 9:55am Mar 30, 2009 9:55am
The yen is gaining the most across the majors due to risk aversion. I had thought that this relationship was gone for the time being due to the condition of the Japanese economy and Japanese exports; however, it seems to be back in full form. It could be a result of the worsening recession in europe and the attacks on the dollar as global reserve currency making it a choice as a safe haven currency once again. Short yen positions are not very attractive, as long as this relationship is in play since there are defninitely more bumps in the road. The weekly chart looks as though we may have encountered a whipsaw on the daily chart and points to a move lower.


I definitely see a move lower in equities and if that is correlated with the Yen that looks bad for the EUR/JPY. I am gonna go ahead and let my call run though and see what happens. But now might not be the time to go long. 127 is the last support area on the daily chart that was resistance before we have more of a decline.


Here is a daily chart of the Dow which shows increasing volume peaking the the fall to around 6,400 and decreasing volume with the recent rally. The 8,000 resistance zone that was once support should probably hold up according to volume and push the dow back down for a retest of 6400 and possibly lower.
Attached Image
  • #36
  • Apr 2, 2009 12:04pm Apr 2, 2009 12:04pm
After my call being practically worthless with the drop down to 126. It is now 200 pips in the positive. It should be interesting to see how we close out the week with nfp and the g20 announcement later. We are at critical resistance on the Yen crosses as well the dow at the 8,000 mark. Lets see if the Yen crosses and the dow and close the week above their resistance levels.
  • #37
  • Apr 2, 2009 2:23pm Apr 2, 2009 2:23pm
As big as these moves look and as great as everything looks we are still right at resistance on the yen crossess and the dow. I think how the week finishes out will tell us alot. Looking at the chart you can see that this pair bounced off of 127 support that was once resistance. A break of the 134.50-135 level would open the way to 140 and ultimately to 145.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: prediction.JPG Size: 153 KB
  • #38
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:03pm Apr 2, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting Maxsmart
As big as these moves look and as great as everything looks we are still right at resistance on the yen crossess and the dow. I think how the week finishes out will tell us alot. Looking at the chart you can see that this pair bounced off of 127 support that was once resistance. A break of the 134.50-135 level would open the way to 140 and ultimately to 145.
hi, if i were to trade this pair on the break of 135 where would you advise me to place my stop ?
  • #39
  • Apr 2, 2009 5:53pm Apr 2, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting jub1
hi, if i were to trade this pair on the break of 135 where would you advise me to place my stop ?
Placing a stop on this pair is tricky business because of the volatilty. Thats why I opted to use an option to guard against this volatilty. As you can see I would have been -600 pips at one point and now I'm +210. However, we saw former resistance respected as support and I would expect the same on a break of the 134.50-135. Therefore, 134.50 should serve as support. And I would place my stop loss at about 133.50 or 134 depending on where you get in. You want to have a good risk to reward to ratio. So if you entered at say 135.50, probably 134. So you'd be risking 150 pips and expecting to make 450 pips. So a 1:3 risk reward ratio.
  • #40
  • Edited Apr 6, 2009 12:10am Apr 5, 2009 11:40pm | Edited Apr 6, 2009 12:10am
140-141 is the next significant resistance level. I expect some consolidation in between 135 and 140 when that level is hit before moving further towards our 145 target.
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