Eur/JPY 1,500 pip prediction | Forex Factory

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Eur/JPY 1,500 pip prediction

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 23, 2009 11:57am Mar 23, 2009 11:57am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Eur/jpy 1,500 pip prediction
If the Eur/Jpy finishes the day and closes above 131.04 which I believe it will. I will buy a call and target the 145-150 yen region. As you can see a break above 131.04 will validate a double bottom on the daily chart for the lows at 112 in October of last year and January of this year. When forming a price target you take the height of the double bottom and apply it to the break out point. So 131.04 minus 112 gives us about 1,900 pips. So after breaking 131.04 we should have a upside potential of about 1,900 pips putting us at about 150 yen. I will have a "modest" target of 145 however.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1237827029
  • #2
  • Mar 23, 2009 12:36pm Mar 23, 2009 12:36pm
Nice prediction right now price at 132.00
  • #3
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:30pm Mar 23, 2009 5:30pm
Remember that we're approaching the end of Japan's FY. Could be a rough ride over the next 2 weeks.
  • #4
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:54pm Mar 23, 2009 5:54pm
I don't expect it to be a straight line. Looking at the daily chart I expect some resistance at around the 135 level. However, longer term I think it will play out. I'm bought a call to protect against volatility as well doing a long spot position for taking profit and resistance levels.
  • #5
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:35pm Mar 23, 2009 6:35pm
It looks like 132.50 may be important. It was touched on 10/11 and repelled upward. When it finally broke on 10/23 it was a free fall. 132.50 has been tested several times already this week, including just a few minutes ago.

One thing that is curious is that COT data seems to indicate major commercial JPY net long interest, which is the other direction for EURJPY of course. I'm not much of a fundies trader myself, but I do take note of such things.

Should be interesting!
  • #6
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:15pm Mar 23, 2009 7:15pm
Quoting Pip Hunter E
It looks like 132.50 may be important. It was touched on 10/11 and repelled upward. When it finally broke on 10/23 it was a free fall. 132.50 has been tested several times already this week, including just a few minutes ago.

One thing that is curious is that COT data seems to indicate major commercial JPY net long interest, which is the other direction for EURJPY of course. I'm not much of a fundies trader myself, but I do take note of such things.

Should be interesting!

Actually it is the Noncommercial that is the most important. The Commercial component of the COT report are banks, financial institutions, auto makers, etc. that utilize the futures market strictly on a hedging basis so they do not care, per say, which way the market moves. They are only locking in receivables, payables or inventory.

Noncommercials are large speculators, hedge funds, trading desks etc that are interested in a directional movement.

One of the most important components of the COT report is not the Net Long or Net Short position, but how it has changed between the last couple of reports. This show the large, "Big Money Boy," either getting into or out of a position.

GREEN PIPS to ALL.
  • #7
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:27pm Mar 23, 2009 7:27pm
Quoting SmoothTrader
Actually it is the Noncommercial that is the most important.
This is subject to some debate

Just cracked 132.50 and ran up another 25 pips as soon as it did. Off to the races
  • #8
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:51pm Mar 23, 2009 7:51pm
Seems to be holding 133 for the time being.

That means only 1700 more pips to go.

Long @ 131.75 SL @ BE
  • #9
  • Edited 8:28pm Mar 23, 2009 8:26pm | Edited 8:28pm
Quoting Pip Hunter E
It looks like 132.50 may be important. It was touched on 10/11 and repelled upward. When it finally broke on 10/23 it was a free fall. 132.50 has been tested several times already this week, including just a few minutes ago.

One thing that is curious is that COT data seems to indicate major commercial JPY net long interest, which is the other direction for EURJPY of course. I'm not much of a fundies trader myself, but I do take note of such things.

Should be interesting!
On the discussion of the COT. I was pretty sure actually that institutional investors switched net long on the usd/jpy last friday. Are you talking about data concerning net yen long and short positions. I didn't there was direct information on the crosses such as the EUR/JPY.

http://learningmarkets.com/images/Wade/cot-usd-jpy.png
  • #10
  • Mar 24, 2009 12:12am Mar 24, 2009 12:12am
We are approaching some resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy2.JPG Size: 144 KB
  • #11
  • Mar 24, 2009 1:03am Mar 24, 2009 1:03am
ok, I'm in
  • #12
  • Mar 25, 2009 12:26am Mar 25, 2009 12:26am
This isn't the price action I expected to see after breach of 132.50.

COT data continues to be a bit difficult to apply, but I continue to be a student of the markets.
  • #13
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:41am Mar 25, 2009 1:41am
Looks like we are doing some backing and filling and getting close to re-testing the breakout area of 130.5 to 131.1

Will be interesting to see if it holds.
  • #14
  • Mar 25, 2009 3:42am Mar 25, 2009 3:42am
Unbelievable
  • #15
  • Mar 25, 2009 4:00am Mar 25, 2009 4:00am
Quoting SmoothTrader
Looks like we are doing some backing and filling and getting close to re-testing the breakout area of 130.5 to 131.1

Will be interesting to see if it holds.

First test of the 131 level is complete, and is currently holding nicely. That doesn't mean it can't test it again, but a nice break above the short term downtrend sure would be nice.

Attached Image


GREEN PIPS to All
  • #16
  • Mar 25, 2009 8:38am Mar 25, 2009 8:38am
I'm glad I bought a call so I don't have to worry about the short term volatility like todays correction day. I still have 23 days left on it. We finally broke above the short term downtrend line and on the daily chart we might form a bullish hammer. Still I did not expect a correction all the way down to 1.3080. I thought 1.32 would hold better.
  • #17
  • Mar 25, 2009 8:59am Mar 25, 2009 8:59am
have you taken any profit yet smoothtrader? And are you still in it?
  • #18
  • Mar 25, 2009 9:12am Mar 25, 2009 9:12am
Quoting Maxsmart
have you taken any profit yet smoothtrader? And are you still in it?

Had a trailing 100 pip stop that got me out yesterday, but I am back in this morning on the spike down @ 131 and @ 1131.59 when it broke above the upper trend line.

Watching now to see if we can break above 132.6. Looks like it will be a battle for a while.

GREEN PIPS to All.
  • #19
  • Mar 25, 2009 9:29am Mar 25, 2009 9:29am
I'm curious to know why you bought at such a high price on the EUR/JPY anticipating your move to the 145-150 price level. Why not play the daily pullback that it gives you. Where was your stop loss. I'm pretty new so wondering why pull the trigger so early?
  • #20
  • Mar 25, 2009 9:50am Mar 25, 2009 9:50am
Quoting ford2468
I'm curious to know why you bought at such a high price on the EUR/JPY anticipating your move to the 145-150 price level. Why not play the daily pullback that it gives you. Where was your stop loss. I'm pretty new so wondering why pull the trigger so early?

I had originally purchased @ 125.25 and rode it up to 133.5 when my trailing stop got hit.

Now I am back in and looking to add more as we advance.

Hopefully this helps.

ps. This is one of my long term trades. I prefer to day trade and scalp in both the EU and GU. Tighter spreads.
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