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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #1,141
  • Mar 24, 2009 7:36pm Mar 24, 2009 7:36pm
Quoting rogueforex
Updated for 3/24...
First Class, thanks for your efforts on this Lance. I still find it interesting that while I'm here I download Chinese Excel. Which is why I can't post it on the 1st page.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,142
  • Mar 24, 2009 7:52pm Mar 24, 2009 7:52pm
Quoting Stuart14
Hi guys.

I wasn't going to post, but have been convinced otherwise! Here goes:

Responding to Nicola.

It sounds like you and me have reached very similar positions in our trading.

I've totally lost my confidence in my approach and just cannot pull the trigger at the moment. The reasoning goes something like this

I can understand price action, and S/R levels. With hindsite it is very easy to look at a chart and see where it found support, resistence etc.

My problem really is that all of this happened in the past. The human mind is amazing...
Stuart, you are not alone in where you are at right now. If I may, you might want to ask yourself if you really are suited to trading, do you have the personality or character to do it? Not everyone is suited to trading. There are many who think they are and shouldn't be trading.

I've been at the point where you are now, Stuart, thinking the whole world is against my trade. No matter how well thought out the trade is, I put it on and someone grabs it and before you know it I'm in negative pips land. It still happens. The trick is to get out quick when you see it going against you.

If price action tells you to buy and the market does the opposite then something has changed in the conditions between when you put on the trade and when price starts going the other way. This is a sure sign something is wrong and to get out. For some reason, momentum has swung in the opposite direction. It happens to us all.

Sitting on your hands means that, at least, you have recognised your faults and know to stop and to CHANGE the way that you are trading. The majority keep blindly trading away, hoping out of hope, their luck will change instead of recognising that what they're doing is wrong.

The best advice I can give to anyone in your position is watch, listen and observe, then listen to what your gut tells you.

Good luck
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,143
  • Mar 24, 2009 7:55pm Mar 24, 2009 7:55pm
Quoting pizdun
i guess it goes...
Who said it has stopped going up? -I didn't - I'm still long and will maybe add if we get the sign
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,144
  • Mar 24, 2009 7:58pm Mar 24, 2009 7:58pm
Quoting elitejets
I am watching the daily candles form on AUDJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, EURJPY and I am hoping that Strat wakes up soon.
Some are very interesting levels, like CHFJPY.
They are pretty good looking candles at the moment but the question in my head is ... what does it take to turn around a big freight train? Or are some passengers just going to jump off and collect some profit here?
I'm hoping for some advice ...
Nicola
Don't forget, something going up, has to stop going up before it can start going down.

We'll take a look later
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,145
  • Mar 24, 2009 8:06pm Mar 24, 2009 8:06pm
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Nicola, looking at EUR/JPY (if it's still a shooting star at US close), my entry would be 132.15, stop at 134.50, and i have a major PPZ marked at the 128 area, so this would be MY first area to take out some profit.
My candle is just dark cloud cover so far and with Tokyo not as active as the last 2 days, I'm not interested. Now, if London come in and put in a BEOB, then its got my attention.

So, according to my data, you would be already stopped out.

I share the views of others that I don't think BOJ has finished dumping JPY and may still see a push to 100 Yen to $1
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,146
  • Mar 24, 2009 8:11pm Mar 24, 2009 8:11pm
[quote=Levent;2625619]

Levent,

"'The only thing close to being a somewhat consistent winner for me has been daily activities. The moves (accumulation / distrubution) of the big brokers, central banks, huge hedge funds are not usually a 5 min or 15 min event. When these guys make their move it makes a recognizable trend on the dailies and usually lasts for a few days and rests and continues again if there is enough support from the others who might join the party. Or if a central bank of any government selects a floor and a ceiling for it's own currency you might recognize its support and resistance. If you are able to catch those with not easy to reach stop losses you might have more winners. And that's my 2 cents if it makes you feel any better."'

You have summarised in this paragraph what this thread is all about - and you did it in one lousy paragraph that so far, has taken me 77 pages to say!

Thank you!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,147
  • Mar 24, 2009 8:13pm Mar 24, 2009 8:13pm
Quoting foredog
Stuat

I'll try and answer a couple of your questions and hopefully not step on Strat's toes!

Stops. Put your stop above/below PRICE ACTION not a MA, the MA is the average of prices so it must have also been the other side of this line, where as if the candles have gone to a low of X 3 times and bounce then if it goes below there you're probably in the wrong trade.

Running winner cutting losers.

If you had a huge loser that swung to a big profit then you probably were trading large size and got lucky in a crap trade, especially with equities,...
Well said and you were nowhere near my toes. Thank you
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,148
  • Mar 24, 2009 8:17pm Mar 24, 2009 8:17pm
Quoting ajhill
Hi Dan

I like the eurjpy setup, but have 4 hours until close.

I've also a concern with the 13100 level though. It was big resistance Oct & Dec 08.

Mind you, if it closes below yesterdays open at 13076, then we'd have a bearish engulfing. Interesting.

Any thoughts?

Tony H
See my reply to Dan. There is minor support at 130.50 and major support at 128.00 so it is too small a trade for me PLUS I'm still long and will stay long unless today's bar closes as a BEOB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,149
  • Mar 24, 2009 8:20pm Mar 24, 2009 8:20pm
Quoting AstonDan
Strat, Baba and others kindly replied to my post about how i don't trade my plan once i enter a trade.

I said i would respond to your points and i will, but i want to take some time to think about my answers and the reasons for them first.

Please don't think i am ignoring the effort you put into your posts.

Cheers
Dan
Take your time Dan, it was your question. Don't forget to polish the mirror first - it always helps - gets rid of the fog. I"M NOT JOKING!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,150
  • Mar 24, 2009 8:35pm Mar 24, 2009 8:35pm
Quoting AminAS
I'm sure everybody has already seen this, so I'll make it brief. We got a DBLHC on USD/CAD, forming above the 61.8% fib retrace and 1.2260 S/R. Just above the high of the signal candle (today's), we have the 1.2330 S/R and BOSS 20, so my entry goes above at 1.2350. Stops below the low, targeting 1.2500. Risk is 160 pips, reward is 150 pips. I see what I see, and I can't make it any simpler!

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/4741/usdcad.gif
Amin - high school eh and playing with forex? All I played with in high school was girls - so much more fun. I remember the time..............no, that's for somewhere else!

Please go back and study J16. It is not a DBLHC - the 2nd bar has to close higher than the first to give us the "bullish" sentiment.

My 30 second glance still tells me everything immediate is bearish - we now have a hammer and two bars at the same level bouncing off major support at 1.2150.

When you try to break a door down, do you just stand in front of it and put your shoulder to the door or do you take several steps back and take a run at it (more energy)? Remember the Rule of 4 and what GBPJPY thought of it.

Forex instead of girls - got you measured up!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,151
  • Mar 24, 2009 8:40pm Mar 24, 2009 8:40pm
Quoting AminAS
Quick story for me, I don't want to take up too much valuable thread space. I consider it part of trading family initiation.

The name's Amin, most know that already. I'm in high school, taking my credits at a local community college. Tried a free $25 FXCM Micro account in November, added 50 of my own dollars, then lost it. Doing this all in my parent's name, it took a little convincing but they let refund the old account with some money I'd made working. I was live from the start, never touched a demo until two weeks ago. Age 17, young, stupid,...
17, bloody hell, Amin! I had been dating the love of my life for a year at 17!

Thanks for sharing
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,152
  • Mar 24, 2009 8:43pm Mar 24, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting pizdun
nice to meet u anim...im in the same boat accept im 20........."the young and the restless" talk about a soap

anywhoo.

my 4h pin trade is still on and found support on the 20... price bounced of the 20 creating a 2 bar breakout pattern...strengthening the case for a further move down if those lows are broken...

daily has a pin bar off a resistance level....right now i have a sell stop at 131.30 with a stop at 134.60 first target is the bar highs at 130.50

http://i432.photobucket.com/albums/q...un/eurjpy1.gif
http://i432.photobucket.com/albums/q...un/eurjpy2.gif...
Seems like you should talk to Nicola - she likes H4 and (don't go there!)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,153
  • Edited 9:14pm Mar 24, 2009 8:53pm | Edited 9:14pm
AUDUSD - everything tells me we are coming up to a Weekly Swing High so I'm looking for somewhere to get out of the Daily

JPY pairs - just don't think BOJ has finished dumping yet

EURGBP - approaching 50% fib and minor support and previous swing low - let's see what London & NY do

EURUSD - bouncing off 23.6% fib and minor support - let's see what London & NY do

GBPCHF - on it's way up to old resistance at 1.6725

GBPUSD - Looking stronger than EURUSD - let's see what London & NY do

USDCAD - setting up for it's 4th run at support at 1.2150

I know we are not halfway through this week yet, but it seems to me that Weekly Swing Highs are being set up for either this week or next week (only 1 candle out) on:

AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

and Weekly Swing Lows for:

USDCHF
USDCAD

But then again
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,154
  • Mar 24, 2009 10:43pm Mar 24, 2009 10:43pm
Quoting strat
GBPCHF - on it's way up to old resistance at 1.6725
There may be more to this story than you posted...

http://img242.imageshack.us/img242/7956/gbpchf.gif

Strong close above the 20 and 50, as well as above that wedge trendline. Just be wary of BOSS 20 and the confluence at 1.6900.
Bang.
  • #1,155
  • Mar 24, 2009 10:47pm Mar 24, 2009 10:47pm
Kind of a stupid question, but what do you mean by the word confluence?
  • #1,156
  • Edited 11:16pm Mar 24, 2009 10:57pm | Edited 11:16pm
No question worth asking is a dumb question. Confluence means two or more levels of S/R that are at the same price. One could come from a fibo, and the other an S/R. They could both come from fibos drawn from different points. I guess one could come from a nearby MA, but I usually say it when a fib retrace and a S/R match up to indicate the price point holds more significance.

PS - Check out that avatar! No strat, there are no beautiful dancing girls...
Bang.
  • #1,157
  • Mar 24, 2009 11:22pm Mar 24, 2009 11:22pm
Thanks Strat.

I think you are right there. I really do need to decide whether trading is right for me. I've spent years assuring myself it is, but I am now wondering whether my talents may be better used elsewhere. I'll make an objective decision on this in time.

One question. You say "the Trick is to get out quick when the trade is going against you". My problem is that I plan the trade fully. The entry, the stop, the profit level. I then walk away. My entry could be filled (it might not though), then the price turns and goes the wrong way, but i'm still trading my plan. Without watching your position continuously, at what point do you decide it has gone the wrong way? Realistically, until my stop has been hit the trade is still valid really.

When trading on the daily timeframe, as what level do you worry about movements. If you are long on the daily, do you worry if it goes down for 2-3 hours? You are trading the daily, so the daily timeframe should surely be the only one to watch?

Thanks a lot..




Quoting strat
Stuart, you are not alone in where you are at right now. If I may, you might want to ask yourself if you really are suited to trading, do you have the personality or character to do it? Not everyone is suited to trading. There are many who think they are and shouldn't be trading.

I've been at the point where you are now, Stuart, thinking the whole world is against my trade. No matter how well thought out the trade is, I put it on and someone grabs it and before you know it I'm in negative pips land. It still happens. The trick is to get out quick...
  • #1,158
  • Mar 24, 2009 11:22pm Mar 24, 2009 11:22pm
Quoting AminAS
No question worth asking is a dumb question. Confluence means two or more levels of S/R that are at the same price. One could come from a fibo, and the other an S/R. They could both come from fibos drawn from different points. I guess one could come from a nearby MA, but I usually say it when a fib retrace and a S/R match up to indicate the price point holds more significance.

PS - Check out that avatar! No strat, there are no beautiful dancing girls...
Thanks that makes sense, I was just unsure of the terminology

Nice pic, maybe I should get one myself
  • #1,159
  • Mar 24, 2009 11:47pm Mar 24, 2009 11:47pm
Quoting Stuart14
Thanks Strat.

I think you are right there. I really do need to decide whether trading is right for me. I've spent years assuring myself it is, but I am now wondering whether my talents may be better used elsewhere. I'll make an objective decision on this in time.

One question. You say "the Trick is to get out quick when the trade is going against you". My problem is that I plan the trade fully. The entry, the stop, the profit level. I then walk away. My entry could be filled (it might not though), then the price turns and goes the wrong way,...
If you have planned your trade correctly with your SL in place at the correct position then you just leave it be and "trade the plan". If it goes in your direction, then the next day you would look at Price action and decide whether to pull your stop in or leave as is.

If price goes against you and takes out your stop then, PROVIDING you planned your trade correctly and accepted the risk, that shouldn't be a problem.

When trading the Daily, you enter your stop/limit orders, get filled enter your SL and forget it until the next day. Forget about watching the candles move up and down. We are only interested in where it closes.

If you are doing this and not winning then something must be wrong with your trade selection. You should have at least 7 winners and 3 losers using price action where the winners will be far bigger than the losers.

Getting out quick is for those people that don't have a plan and basically scalp the Daily. Or maybe for Dan that likes to plan his trade and then interfere with it.

Hope this helps
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,160
  • Mar 25, 2009 12:03am Mar 25, 2009 12:03am
Hi Strat,

My name is Dennis and i'm trading the forex for 1,5 years now. I found this forum with an webad and i'm so happy that i finally found the discussion-board that i was looking for !!

Your thread the famous Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading inspired me to continue trading the forex. There is so much information on the internet..... Finally some hounest and good information !

Please keep on going the way your are doing this !

Many thanks !

Dennis from the Netherlands
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