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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,181
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:28am Mar 19, 2009 8:28am
Quoting fishmen
O, i see.What are the other days we should avoid?
On the FF main page there's a calendar with color coding for impact. That's worth a study. I avoid planning a trade that I suspect will be open during the high impact (red) news. That being said, lower impact news could be so bad/good that it causes major moves in one or more pairs.
  • #19,182
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:46am Mar 19, 2009 8:46am
Quoting time1300
Orange:
I am glad I can contribute to this thread as I myself was a newcomer at one time. I myself am not perfect and learn everyday from you guys posting your trades and comments. It is when you think you know everything is when you realize you don't and I myself have so much more to learn and I am glad I am part of this thread with all of you guys.
time1300...

Nobody perfect. Learning is a lifetime process. That's why we are all here... educating ourselves...and hopefully it is always a good one...

See ya' around....
  • #19,183
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:49am Mar 19, 2009 8:49am
Quoting neilbuc
Yes, thats Mick. I have another Beagle called Pepper they are brothers. They are real characters

Yes the Euro has broken above 89sma now on the daily. I will be watching.
Dude...
Your dogs are surely cute...!!!! Can I have their puppies for free? One is enough actually.........

Send my regards to MICK and PEPPER....
  • #19,184
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:16am Mar 19, 2009 10:16am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...

First entry @ 0.6871

SL @ 0.6765 (5 pips below previous candle and 27/28pips below fib 38.2%)

Total Risk = 106 pips...too large...might have use 3 stages entries or trailing stops strategy....
Closing my trade @ 0.6921 = 50pips gain

Nett pips gain = 20pips (after deducted from previous "unlucky" lost 30pips)
  • #19,185
  • Mar 19, 2009 11:06am Mar 19, 2009 11:06am
Just wanted to know what people's plans were to possibly trade a pullback to the 8 on any of the USD pairs?

Comments?


-RM
  • #19,186
  • Mar 20, 2009 2:17am Mar 20, 2009 2:17am
Hello everyone,

I wanted to share an observation I've had on counter trend trades. This is by no means a guarantee and I have not back tested it as far as I want with it.

What I have noticed is that if you are willing to take on a counter trend trade when there is a trending currency and want to take the trade back to the 8ema, your high probability for this trade is during the low volume hours which is around the close of the US markets and during the asian sessions. What I have noticed is that during the European and the US markets, when a pair is trending like we had on the Eur, then during these high volume times, price moves nicely in the trend and when the volume is low or the markets are closed, this is when people take some of their profits off the table thus allowing price to retrace back to the 8 or the 21 before heading back to it's original trend during the open of the European and the US markets.

There is also a chance where price does not retrace back to the 8 and 21ema and the 8ema catches up with price but during nice trending trends, the majority of the move occurs during the european and us sessions and after the close of the us sessions, it tends to slow down and that is when I believe would be the higher probability counter trend trade back to the 8ema when some people might be taking their profits thus having price retrace a little bit.

This is an observation that needs to be back tested but from the short amount of back testing I have done, this is what I have observed. Also I am not a big fan of counter trend trades unless it is a high probability trades and there are many confluences of events that point to my trade as was the case on the GBP/USD today when price shot up way past the 8ema and there was a huge gap to be filled. (this was on all the major USD currencies) but I chose the GBP because I felt that it was the highest probability trade for me.

Close to the end of the US session, I entered my position with a target back to the 8ema on the 4H time frame. As you can see from my chart, on my 4H, not only was a big gap created between price and the 8ema, but price had also crossed above the 365sma where the 8ema eventually caught up to it and I anticipated price to retrace back to the 365 before continuing with it's direction. Also on the 1H, you can see my entry after the dotted purple verticle line which is a engulfing candle as well as an aggressive round top on the MACD and also a double top on the MACD on the 1H. Those confluences of events and also knowing that the low volume might cause price to come down to the 8ema, I entered with the 8ema as my target @ 1.4460 which got filled about a few hours ago with about 80 pip gain x 3 lots so not so bad for a counter trend trade.

I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANYONE TRADING COUNTER TREND TRADES UNTIL THEY HAVE THE MOVEMENT OF PRICE AROUND THE MOVING AVERAGES INSTILLED IN THEIR HEARTS AND THEN AND ONLY THEN YOU MIGHT WANT TO TAKE THE COUNTER TREND TRADES.

THIS IS JUST AN OBSERVATION AND ANY COMMENTS ARE WELCOMED. I WANTED TO SHARE THIS OBSERVATIONS WITH YOU ALL TO GET ANY FEEDBACK AND MAYBE A TOOL FOR SOMEONE IN THEIR TOOLBOX OF RULES TO MAKE PIPS.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 4h.gif Size: 47 KB
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,187
  • Mar 20, 2009 5:07am Mar 20, 2009 5:07am
Quoting time1300
Hello everyone,

I wanted to share an observation I've had on counter trend trades. This is by no means a guarantee and I have not back tested it as far as I want with it.

What I have noticed is that if you are willing to take on a counter trend trade when there is a trending currency and want to take the trade back to the 8ema, your high probability for this trade is during the low volume hours which is around the close of the US markets and during the asian sessions. What I have noticed is that during the European and the US markets, when...
i agree,best time for TC trades is after US session close until UK start
  • #19,188
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:47pm Mar 22, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting bshadroo
i agree,best time for TC trades is after US session close until UK start
What? I think it's CT trade session
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #19,189
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:17pm Mar 22, 2009 11:17pm
Hi all...

I start my trade with this pair this week.

Double entries @ 1.3669

SL @ 1.3585 (84pips risk!!) =
15pips below 1.3600 price level; 57pips below fib 50%; 23pips below 8EMA

1st entry with TP @ 1.3753 = 84pips Reward
2nd entry for open position with Trailing Stops strategy

REASONS FOR LONG :-
1) Basic lesson : Price > 8 > 21 > 89 (uptrending market);
2) Previous candle @ h4 closed above fib 50% (the immediate support); &
3) Price opened above 8EMA after the Gap during weekend (good sign upside move...at least to me)

So...I am currently looking @ 3 levels as immediate support for EU now. They are:-
1) Price level 1.3600;
2) Fib 50%; &
3) 8EMA (h4)

I hope my speculations are favouring me this time.

Questions/Critics/Opinions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #19,190
  • Mar 23, 2009 2:11am Mar 23, 2009 2:11am
Quoting saka
What? I think it's CT trade session
hi
yes ,sorry , it was a misstype
but i dont know why i cannot edit my post!!
  • #19,191
  • Mar 23, 2009 8:14am Mar 23, 2009 8:14am
hi orange

my chart open and close of candle look very different from yours.

Have you take some pips and breakeven already? That should be a winning trade.

Look like retracement/divergence coming. i think that is. still learning



regards
jin
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,192
  • Mar 23, 2009 11:49am Mar 23, 2009 11:49am
Quoting jinsen
hi orange

my chart open and close of candle look very different from yours.

Have you take some pips and breakeven already? That should be a winning trade.

Look like retracement/divergence coming. i think that is. still learning



regards
jin
Hi jinsen

Yes..it should be a winning trade...if I watch the trade closely...but I was very busy with my work today...and it hit my SL...both...!!!

Hmmm...I should be a fulltime trader soon...because I can't afford to lose my trade if I am using a standard lot...lucky me...this is just still a mini account...

Even it is in a small amount...my emotional/psychological approachment still need to be in control. That's why I don't prefer DEMO. I don't have emotion in my DEMO trade.

That's all about it. Real money...real trade...real emotion...real control...
  • #19,193
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:07pm Mar 23, 2009 5:07pm
I can't find the post anymore but I recall a post where someone, maybe Mr. Nel, suggested only taking TC's. Has it been determined the other MACD signals no longer work? I would greatly appreciate it if someone would point me to that post.


Thanks in advance.
  • #19,194
  • Mar 23, 2009 11:33pm Mar 23, 2009 11:33pm
Quoting ForexTrader
I can't find the post anymore but I recall a post where someone, maybe Mr. Nel, suggested only taking TC's. Has it been determined the other MACD signals no longer work? I would greatly appreciate it if someone would point me to that post.


Thanks in advance.
I myself only looking at the MACD signals in a basic way. If it is above Zero (upper side) for both h1 and h4, I would favour LONG. Vice versa for the SHORT. This is how I determine the strength of the market.

Also, I rarely put too much weight on Rt/Rb, H and S, Higher Low or Lower High etc etc as a signal. Price action and MAs are the most important for this system. MACD is only a supportive indicator. You cannot rely too much on it.

However, I couldn't help you to find the said post. Sorry.
  • #19,195
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:27am Mar 24, 2009 4:27am
Quoting ForexTrader
I can't find the post anymore but I recall a post where someone, maybe Mr. Nel, suggested only taking TC's. Has it been determined the other MACD signals no longer work? I would greatly appreciate it if someone would point me to that post.


Thanks in advance.
i kind of sure it is on post 1. The video he teaches did mention something about begineers should only take tc. and if you take tc, you will make money.

you may want to re look the video again.
  • #19,196
  • Mar 24, 2009 8:05am Mar 24, 2009 8:05am
Hey everyone! I've been busy even after coming off of travel last week. But, trading busy. I'm in the process of completing my day trading plan on the 15/5/1 minute timeframes that are all from Phillip's methods. I'm planning on taking off of work on Thursday and Friday to specifically trade the first few hours of the London open and the NY open. I'm at a sort of crossroads in my trading 'career' right now along with my employment career. It's either persue a Master's degree in the next year or so or persue a conistent second income in the FX markets.

Two days does not make a trading career but after about 12 years of doing this on and off I believe it's time. I do have the ability to alter my regular work schedule to still work a full 8 hour day in addtion to FX trading on these lower timeframes. I just have to manage my time in a scheduled approach now. The longer term test is to do this for the entire month of April as well with the goal of at least 25 pips a day every day that I trade these timeframes.

I'm posting this here just as a note to everyone that I haven't left this thread and don't intend to. It takes an immense amount of time to put something like this together and trading on the 1min timeframe needs every bit of my attention. So, I'm just putting the word out that I'm still here but I'm just extremely focused on the lower timeframes right now.

The plan is to only trade these timeframes on Tuesday - Thursday. The 1min timeframe gives a considerable amount of opportunities throughout these sessions, as long as the other timeframes agree, so that should be plenty of tunnel vision for me in one week.

"I'll be back." I just need the time to fully dedicate myself to this for at least the next few days....http://www.fxtradeblog.com
  • #19,197
  • Mar 24, 2009 11:44am Mar 24, 2009 11:44am
Palmer : Welcome back

Hi all...I have these new fib levels for this pair now. So does to the other major pairs but we are focusing EU as our first choice afterall.

To be honest, fib levels are very important to me. They should be drawn correctly so that we can see how the price moves in wave on daily basis.

Below are my d1-h4-h1 charts.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #19,198
  • Mar 24, 2009 12:49pm Mar 24, 2009 12:49pm
Hi, I see this as a three little sister, there is also a divergence on MACD. I think the price is going to come down. any comments?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #19,199
  • Edited 1:37pm Mar 24, 2009 1:34pm | Edited 1:37pm
I'm also watching current PA closely. I don't view this as 3 sister setup yet as the first 2 tops / roundings are more like a double top. To me, 3 little sisters is more where there are 3 consecutive lower tops. I'll be looking at shorting the pair if there is another lower top forms, which should display as a TC on the MACD based on current MACD bar location.

Watching and waiting....

PS - definitely like the divergence. I've found that divergence, when combined with PA at good Support or Resistance Levels, can accurately forecast price targets and allow you to play for bigger moves.

Quoting fishmen
Hi, I see this as a three little sister, there is also a divergence on MACD. I think the price is going to come down. any comments?
  • #19,200
  • Mar 24, 2009 3:09pm Mar 24, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting BenStevo
I'm also watching current PA closely. I don't view this as 3 sister setup yet as the first 2 tops / roundings are more like a double top. To me, 3 little sisters is more where there are 3 consecutive lower tops. I'll be looking at shorting the pair if there is another lower top forms, which should display as a TC on the MACD based on current MACD bar location.

Watching and waiting....

PS - definitely like the divergence. I've found that divergence, when combined with PA at good Support or Resistance Levels, can accurately forecast price targets...
Hi, what is PA? thanks
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