Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Updated for 3/24...

[quote=strat;2625048]I have been compiling a list of "To Dos" from things I have been requested and things I think I should follow up on. Since this thread is taking over my life, I need to start prioritising.

For those that are "family" and "team members" on here, (lurkers go forth and multiply), here is my "To Do List". Let me know what is important for you and I will either dig it out from my files or write it up from the annals of my mind:

Support and Resistance
Dr. Joe does electronic trading
Reading and understanding - NO flash reading
Price candle - Visualise what went on in the candle
Shock of going naked--I’m OK it’s the neighbours looking in !
Sunday candles--Best pairs to day trade also are pair correlations important?
Candle close - tails and wicks--Best place to draw fibs for al to see, H/L or bodies
Profit taking versus shorts
Time frames - correct selection
Man in the Mirror - psychology--Good discipline techniques

Once you have this , you have bled me dry![/quote]

Come on Strat you can use us for test bed for when you develop your chain of Chinese forex schools, LOL

Once again thanks for your time and generosity

Cheers
Steve

Hi guys.

I wasn't going to post, but have been convinced otherwise! Here goes:

Responding to Nicola.

It sounds like you and me have reached very similar positions in our trading.

I've totally lost my confidence in my approach and just cannot pull the trigger at the moment. The reasoning goes something like this

I can understand price action, and S/R levels. With hindsite it is very easy to look at a chart and see where it found support, resistence etc.

My problem really is that all of this happened in the past. The human mind is amazing at putting reason to patterns, and as such will easily identify things like S/R and trends on a chart. To make money in a trade, you have to be on the right side of what will happen in the future.

Now, essentially that shouldn't be too difficult. If the trend is up, buy it. If the trend is down, sell it.

In reality is seems to me to be so much harder, and I (rather sillily) think the Gods have it in for me.

For instance. A pair is in a nice uptrend. Higher Highs, Higher lows, with 3 bounces off the weekly 20.

I go long, with a stop below the weekly 20. The price retraces, through the 20, bounces off the 50, and on up it goes. The trend is still up, but i've been stopped out for another loss.

Now, I am sure if I took that trade 20 times, it would work out 14 of them, but will it make me money.

The next issue is the saying "Run your Profits, Cut your losses". Great, but i've run profits that have turned into losses, and i've held losses that have turned into profits. Infact my biggest ever profit in equities also at one point was my biggest ever loss!

Because of this, I am always itchy when in trades when i'd rather actually be totally relaxed. I can plan a trade, and trade a plan unemotionally, however when i lose trades time after time actually taking the trade becomes the hardest thing to do!

I have so many issues at the moment it is definitely best that I sit on my hands. I'm going to keep reading the thread to try to pick up idea's, but won't trade myself.

I probably won't post much either. I think i'm probably too negative!

Out of intersest, is there a good source for info on Candlesticks that you use?

I had 1 site, but in all honesty I didn't like a lot of the patterns. I can understand what is a bullish sign, what is a bearish sign, and signs of indecision but wondered about the validity of some of the others!

A lot of people seem to love Hammers, Inside Bars etc. Are you using them now?

Great to hear from you too. It does sound like we are on similar journeys.

All the Best

Stuart

Thanks for the promotion !

About your "to do list", I would love to hear more about psychology since its a very important concept that most traders don't really talk about

i guess it goes up until it stops going up ...eh

http://i432.photobucket.com/albums/q...dun/eurjpy.gif

I kno i kno its a 4h chart..but i happened to catch it this morn and took it....first target was the bar highs at 132.50...took my profit and now sitting at a free trade....daily shaping to also finish as a pin but there is much trading left....

On an a side note.. i spend all of yesterday...and i mean ALL.....going bar by bar(daily) on the ten currencies i follow from the start of 05 to the end of 09.....since i kinda stumbled on j16 thread just prior to this one i was only lookin for pins.....

in my first sweep.....i only looked to identify pins....Ie pin bar not pin baar....for alll the currencies

then i did the same thing accept whenever i saw a pin i asked myself....would i trade it..WHY? WHY NOT? made myself write out the reasons....and made myself write a first profit target..that is if i decided to take the pin...again for all currencies

what i found actually really surprised me......my results were pretty much consistent year in and year out with all the currencies( ie trades taken, % that hit first profit level)..

people always say price action works on all markets....but i didnt really get it untill i tried myself.....

I am watching the daily candles form on AUDJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, EURJPY and I am hoping that Strat wakes up soon.
Some are very interesting levels, like CHFJPY.
They are pretty good looking candles at the moment but the question in my head is ... what does it take to turn around a big freight train? Or are some passengers just going to jump off and collect some profit here?
I'm hoping for some advice ...
Nicola

Hi Nicola, looking at EUR/JPY (if it's still a shooting star at US close), my entry would be 132.15, stop at 134.50, and i have a major PPZ marked at the 128 area, so this would be MY first area to take out some profit.

Don't feel too bad!
If trading were so easy everyone would do it and become rich. Even big powerhouses like MS, GS, JPM lose tons of money but they have special instruments (CDO, CMO, SIV etc..) to sell to make up for the losses. As an individual who has a computer, a tv and a tons of technical knowledge may not be enough to make it. Because you don't have the inside scoop.

I told my brother yesterday at the US Equity Market close that the ugly bitch a. cohen from goldman would be on cnbc this morning - he asked me why and how I knew it. This is all about scamming others and stealing others money. It was my instinct that everytime these crooks run the markets up or down to the extremes this ugly bitch would be on tv the next morning and I swear it's the truth. The same company has been talking about returning the TARP money for a few weeks now. They took $10 billion US tax money as tarp as you may know. With just a rumor of returning the money they pumped their market cap by $25 billion - funny Why do you think big brokers are supporting geitner - because he is one of them and he will do whatever it takes to make them profitable. When he is out of the public servise he will end up at goldman for a $100 million deal for a few years just like rubin. You know what happened with rubin, citi stock went from 50s to 1 but he collected a cool $115 million regardless.

These are the same crooks who made S&P give AAA to Mexican Peso base bond a US AAA Government bond protection over a Bermuda based Company related to some School Girls Charitable Trust. You know drug dealers use countries like Bermuda, Bahamas, Cayman etc...

So, you and I are trying to survive in these markets with a Computer, a tv and some technical knowledge. You'll have a good day and a bad week. You'll have a good week and a bad month. You'll have a good month and a bad year. Trust me it is not your inefficency or lack of technical knowledge or wrong money management skills. It's is how the system is set up. Without inside information trying to make an educated guess will not make you a consistent money maker.

The only thing close to being a somewhat consistent winner for me has been daily activities. The moves (accumulation / distrubution) of the big brokers, central banks, huge hedge funds are not usually a 5 min or 15 min event. When these guys make their move it makes a recognizable trend on the dailies and usually lasts for a few days and rests and continues again if there is enough support from the others who might join the party. Or if a central bank of any government selects a floor and a ceiling for it's own currency you might recognize its support and resistance. If you are able to catch those with not easy to reach stop losses you might have more winners. And that's my 2 cents if it makes you feel any better.

Your 2 cents makes sense to me

Stuat

I'll try and answer a couple of your questions and hopefully not step on Strat's toes!

Stops. Put your stop above/below PRICE ACTION not a MA, the MA is the average of prices so it must have also been the other side of this line, where as if the candles have gone to a low of X 3 times and bounce then if it goes below there you're probably in the wrong trade.

Running winner cutting losers.

If you had a huge loser that swung to a big profit then you probably were trading large size and got lucky in a crap trade, especially with equities, how many people bought Bear Stearns or Northern Rock and held on thinking they'd bounce?

If you are buying something work out at which point it will no longer be going up, if it gets to there get out and wait. If it keeps going up keep working out a point where it reaches that shows it's stopped going up, if it pulls back to there get out. In theroy then you won't give back the decent profits.

Think of Dr Joe, it seems to me he wants to be on the express train to profitville, not the local all stops up, down chopping about train.

Hope some of this makes sense....if not feel free to tell me to "go forth..."

Hi Dan

I like the eurjpy setup, but have 4 hours until close.

I've also a concern with the 13100 level though. It was big resistance Oct & Dec 08.

Mind you, if it closes below yesterdays open at 13076, then we'd have a bearish engulfing. Interesting.

Any thoughts?

Tony H

Hi Tony, no more thoughts than i've already said to be honest. I had noticed the 131 level as previous resistance back to Oct and Dec like you say, but i haven't seen it act as any sort of support, so i dismissed it.

I'm a bit simple and like to look at things briefly to make a decision. If it looks good (as i think EUR/JPY does) then i'll take the chance. My important levels are already marked on my charts so i'm just looking at what happens around them.

Also, a retrace back to 128/29 will only see price spring back towards the Daily 20 EMA, and it may then continue on its merry way north.

Cheers
Dan

Strat, Baba and others kindly replied to my post about how i don't trade my plan once i enter a trade.

I said i would respond to your points and i will, but i want to take some time to think about my answers and the reasons for them first.

Please don't think i am ignoring the effort you put into your posts.

Cheers
Dan

I'm sure everybody has already seen this, so I'll make it brief. We got a DBLHC on USD/CAD, forming above the 61.8% fib retrace and 1.2260 S/R. Just above the high of the signal candle (today's), we have the 1.2330 S/R and BOSS 20, so my entry goes above at 1.2350. Stops below the low, targeting 1.2500. Risk is 160 pips, reward is 150 pips. I see what I see, and I can't make it any simpler!

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/4741/usdcad.gif

The whole enchilada Senor por favor!

Hi Fordog
I think you have lassoed the wrong horse, I believe your post was meant for Stuart 14.
Thanks anyway.

Stuart, We have all gone through what you have -step back read through this tread the answers are here, then ask the same questions to your self again. I’m sure Strat and the other experience traders will offer you some wise (Tested) advice.

Hi guys,

Nicola - great post mate. Another sign of a true trader coming of age me thinks!

I have had the same issue. I started trading in life by looking at a chart and seeing what was going up/down on the daily and then riding that trend with no skill other than seeing the trend. I made money.

Then i started to learn more about Tech Analysis and it was my undoing. I started to look at technical stops, entries, Fibs etc. My quest for knowledge was unsatiable.

I then discovered Trade_Dante's thread over on T2W; this took my trading to another level. I was now plotting SR levels and looking at individual candles. I chucked out the indicators. Made a few pips. Then I started my quest for more knowledge. And again it was my undoing. I started using RSI, MACD, CCIs, all sorts - In essence I was lost in a sea of squiggly lines!

Then I came across FXPimp - I learnt all about the importance of the 20MA and 50MA and trading close to them. I also learnt about minor TLs, CCIs etc again and Heiken Ashe candles. On demo it worked fine but with live cash I couldn't make the system work. The lines would move all the time; what looked good in hindsight was often impossible to trade live as you'd enter only for the CCI to move and the candle to change colour again??!!

So, then I stripped out my charts to what they are today. PA, SR lines, (20&50), the odd fibs and trend lines. Bare!

Then, I came across this thread (thanks to Nicola ) It's so good to trade naked and I must learn more about PA and set-ups.
My biggest issue is that I love to counter-trend trade. I just can't seem to follow a trend?? I'm always looking for hammers and shooting stars to get back at the market it seems. Because of this early trading in pin-bars I find it near impossible to follow a trend which is absurd as I'm effectivley trying to out-smart the market ; why can't I accept the direction and methods that first got me into trading and with profits and next to no knowledge???

I'm seeing a trading psychologist soon. I've tried Hypnotherapy too but to no avial - yet I'm more determined to succeed in this than in any thing I have done before. Not for self-gratification or ego, or proving to others. Just to be profitable!!

All newbs should listen to Nic's advise - but fund an account with an amount that still matters to you. Don't just load up a credit card or borrow money. You must save a good sum and then fund your account with that sum. Because you have saved it and worked for it that small sum will mean so, so much to you and you will protect it by only taking the best set-ups.

Don't be tempted and lured into the 1min-4hr TFs; I've tried and I firmly believe that the retail trader should stay out on the dailys and above. You have the luxury of not having to trade. You can afford to only take the very best set-ups, unlike those on a trading desk at a large firm, who have desk fees and risk managers to please etc.

I'm great at giving advice and tips to others yet often I will not follow my own advice due to some inner voice saying 'go for it'

Impatience, fear and greed - If you are suseptable to these emotions then you must do some really deep inner thinking and ask yourself 'Can I conquer the internal voice' You must have control over the inner voice, that negative, hypocritical and destructive voice. Trading will amplify any emotional weakness you have and use it to destroy you and your account.

It's a long and sometimes difficult journey but what's helped me along the way is the help and assistance that I have got from fellow traders both here and over on T2W.

Those that have not at least read the first page of the J16 thread should stop everything they are doing until they have absorbed that opening threads advise. Heed the message, learn.

Good trading all.

Quick story for me, I don't want to take up too much valuable thread space. I consider it part of trading family initiation.

The name's Amin, most know that already. I'm in high school, taking my credits at a local community college. Tried a free $25 FXCM Micro account in November, added 50 of my own dollars, then lost it. Doing this all in my parent's name, it took a little convincing but they let refund the old account with some money I'd made working. I was live from the start, never touched a demo until two weeks ago. Age 17, young, stupid, and ambitious. I'd already lost a good amount of money in stocks, so I figured I could find something else worth pursuing that was compatible with smaller amounts of money.

The demo is for taking trades I can't take live because of account size. I would say more, but Strat hid the damn soapbox.

nice to meet u anim...im in the same boat accept im 20........."the young and the restless" talk about a soap

anywhoo.

my 4h pin trade is still on and found support on the 20... price bounced of the 20 creating a 2 bar breakout pattern...strengthening the case for a further move down if those lows are broken...

daily has a pin bar off a resistance level....right now i have a sell stop at 131.30 with a stop at 134.60 first target is the bar highs at 130.50

http://i432.photobucket.com/albums/q...un/eurjpy1.gif
http://i432.photobucket.com/albums/q...un/eurjpy2.gif

Strat -

I was busy yesterday and did not get a chance to reply to your post about China. I think your observations about China are just about spot on and will add a couple more things.

If you look outside China is trying to buy parts of commodities producing companies, particularly in Australia and South America. They are using their foreign exchange surpluses to accomplish this to assure China of raw material supply when the current crisis ends and commodity prices rise again.

My friends in the 25-40 young professional crowd here are not happy with their own government because of corruption and past fiscal policy. I am sure the Chinese govt realizes the danger of this rising dissatisfaction leading to public unrest and is trying to redirect this anger to other bogeymen, such as the US, etc, some of which is deserved. The young people here probably know more about the Fed, the US banking system etc than most of their counterparts in the US. This is a potentially dangerous situation.

All that being said, unless the very worst comes to pass, I think China will emerge more powerful and influential than ever. I am investing in Chinese stocks for this reason.

To paraphrase Jim Rogers " The debt is in the West, the money is in Asia. Where is the best place to be?"