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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #2,541
  • Apr 4, 2007 4:03am Apr 4, 2007 4:03am
Quoting jest1081
Its always advisable not to take TL or SR breakouts on a whim...patience is e key, usually the strategising begins after the breakout happens.
Thanx once again 4 the chart! Appreciate that! I am still working on the emotional aspect of trading...
  • #2,542
  • Apr 4, 2007 4:11am Apr 4, 2007 4:11am
Quoting emurithi
Looks like guys out here look for every reason to enter a trade.
I didn't know a sign of overbought (or oversold) is a trade signal!!
How about about waiting for the market to convince u to enter a trade.
Unless u are scalping I don't see any trade on G/J. those who were long should either be exiting or tightening the stops.
Nobody should be thinking of a short until we get to around 232.05 (according to my style)

My 2 cents
Thank U 4 pointing that out. It was really stupid of me not checking oversold RSI.
  • #2,543
  • Apr 4, 2007 4:12am Apr 4, 2007 4:12am
Quoting emurithi
Looks like guys out here look for every reason to enter a trade.
I didn't know a sign of overbought (or oversold) is a trade signal!!
How about about waiting for the market to convince u to enter a trade.
Unless u are scalping I don't see any trade on G/J. those who were long should either be exiting or tightening the stops.
Nobody should be thinking of a short until we get to around 232.05 (according to my style)

My 2 cents
Agreed. But for long positions now why should we exit? We would lose money on a correction candle, if it were indeed a correction. Best bet is to tighten SL as you said, and keep open positions until further action.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #2,544
  • Apr 4, 2007 4:14am Apr 4, 2007 4:14am
by looking at the monthly chart, GJ hasn't been this high since Sep 1998. I don't think it is a good time for a trade (either Long or Short).
take a rest for 5 hours and hopefully things will be clear then.
  • #2,545
  • Apr 4, 2007 4:17am Apr 4, 2007 4:17am
Quoting lalilo
by looking at the monthly chart, GJ hasn't been this high since Sep 1998. I don't think it is a good time for a trade (either Long or Short).
take a rest for 5 hours and hopefully things will be clear then.
You expect things to be clear in monthly chart just by waiting for 5 hrs? Wait and take a holiday for 5 weeks and you might get it clear.
Tra-X
  • #2,546
  • Apr 4, 2007 4:20am Apr 4, 2007 4:20am
Quoting Plutonite
Agreed. But for long positions now why should we exit? We would lose money on a correction candle, if it were indeed a correction. Best bet is to tighten SL as you said, and keep open positions until further action.
yeap. tighten Stops. My guess is, we'd still probably have a bullish day after all, since the Yen has not fulfilled its daily range. They will try to push the price for Yen as high as possible before the interest rates speculation begins tomorrow, and further tightening of Stops will be required at that period.
  • #2,547
  • Apr 4, 2007 4:20am Apr 4, 2007 4:20am
Only consolidation during Asia, huh? None of my buy limits were triggered in all pairs...

Even after 2 days in overbought conditions, GJ did't come below 234.00
  • #2,548
  • Apr 4, 2007 4:24am Apr 4, 2007 4:24am
Quoting Traex
You expect things to be clear in monthly chart just by waiting for 5 hrs? Wait and take a holiday for 5 weeks and you might get it clear.
I work on 1H timeframe, so 5 hours is enough to know where the trend is heading (short-term trend comparing to monthly chart). but the result from monthly chart is definitely a reason not to go long.
  • #2,549
  • Edited 4:46am Apr 4, 2007 4:34am | Edited 4:46am
Quoting jest1081
Hi,

you cant critise, others trade like that...each of them proly have their own system and they act on it. Sure ur system does not have any trade calls but you cant blame others for taking their trade. Its theirs to take and its up to them on how they should assess it. May it be a winner or a loser, at the end of the day they will definitely learn something from it.

What those who wanna help can do is try to coach and help re-define certain things. Trade assessment is up to the trader himself at the end of the day its his/her money. Gd day emurithi.

regards
jest
Learning is not an event but a process.
The reason am here is to learn some more.
But do I just sit back & see people making simple mistakes?
Forex traders will disagree on almost everything. from lot size, risk, take profit & all that. but atleast most of then agree on one thing DONT GO AGAINST THE TREND (after they have disagreed on what a trend is)
they don't disagree coz they hate to agree but because of the simple reason that their is no one perfect way of making pips (or their are many perfect ways of making pips)
New traders have to be told several times b4 some simple rules stick to there minds.
Money: Bad Master, Best Slave
  • #2,550
  • Apr 4, 2007 4:40am Apr 4, 2007 4:40am
Well...it took me two busted accounts to figure that out.
Anyway when we talk trend, its a superficial matter because it also boils down to the timeframe each trader is scrutinizing.

I also believe there are plenty of reversal traders out there who did well on trading against the grain, Cesarnc did make some 50-60 pips trading the retracement today while most of the long-ist rode the retracement. So we really can't gauge that. It really depends on the trader, their system and MM.
  • #2,551
  • Edited 4:57am Apr 4, 2007 4:45am | Edited 4:57am
Looks to me like though it is in an obvious uptrend (4hr and daily), it has stalled right on the 78.6 fib line, so wait for a signal for it to break out bullish, and then take a long, just my thoughts.


edit: and a perfect double bottom on the 4hr, another reason i'm long.
  • #2,552
  • Apr 4, 2007 4:52am Apr 4, 2007 4:52am
Quoting jest1081
Well...it took me two busted accounts to figure that out.
Anyway when we talk trend, its a superficial matter because it also boils down to the timeframe each trader is scrutinizing.

I also believe there are plenty of reversal traders out there who did well on trading against the grain, Cesarnc did make some 50-60 pips trading the retracement today while most of the long-ist rode the retracement. So we really can't gauge that. It really depends on the trader, their system and MM.
That was purely technical. Retracements do happen. I had had an awesome trade from 232s to 234.50 and was kicked out of the market by my TP. The only new window that appeared to go back in was the 4hr overbought and the fight for 235 at 10:59:59 that was massive and failed.

As retracements happen + I had 200+ pips in the pocket + 235 was hard business I decided that short at 235 was LESS RISKY - AT THAT TIME than going long. GJ would never make it to 236, but could easily come down 50-80, maybe more pips...

But hey, this baby hasn't yet even touched the 23% fib from Friday's low to Y'day High and 4hr is out of overbought area, at least enought for another 200 pips up, since GBP and carry trades are so fuelled.

I'm now looking for opportunities to go inline with this trend....
  • #2,553
  • Apr 4, 2007 5:27am Apr 4, 2007 5:27am
Long at 234.70. Looks like another upday on the NYSE today. Need U/J to break 119 for G/J to break into the 35's.
  • #2,554
  • Apr 4, 2007 5:50am Apr 4, 2007 5:50am
Quoting wep561
Long at 234.70. Looks like another upday on the NYSE today. Need U/J to break 119 for G/J to break into the 35's.
Both levels are about the pair's R1. I'm on this, too

Adding on breach of R1
  • #2,555
  • Apr 4, 2007 6:28am Apr 4, 2007 6:28am
Yen perched on top of 119 now, but making no new headway. NY traders coming in now, the dollar should gain. Fly in the ointment is that Dow futures are down 25 points. If that market continues lower, dollar should get toppy ahead of 119.20-30
  • #2,556
  • Apr 4, 2007 6:44am Apr 4, 2007 6:44am
Quoting cesarnc
Yen perched on top of 119 now, but making no new headway. NY traders coming in now, the dollar should gain. Fly in the ointment is that Dow futures are down 25 points. If that market continues lower, dollar should get toppy ahead of 119.20-30
How recent is this news? I'm looking at the DJIA futures up +5 at the moment.
  • #2,557
  • Apr 4, 2007 7:18am Apr 4, 2007 7:18am
Considering the news looks Dollar good, are you still in your longs?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,558
  • Apr 4, 2007 7:26am Apr 4, 2007 7:26am
Yes still with the long one and dunno was it a foolish but opened a second long one in the bottom what happened moment ago.
  • #2,559
  • Apr 4, 2007 7:36am Apr 4, 2007 7:36am
Quoting Why Oh Why
At 234.68 for 60 pips. 3 lots still short.
Still short. The other 7 lots now banked at profit. SL and TP unchanged. Exit will now be within 24 hours.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #2,560
  • Apr 4, 2007 7:37am Apr 4, 2007 7:37am
Quoting wep561
How recent is this news? I'm looking at the DJIA futures up +5 at the moment.
7:21 EST

DJ may open low for profit takings, but there is no apparent reason for DJ closing the day down... Buyers are likely to emerge at dips...

Europe is trading mixed-to-negative and Asia had a strong session
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