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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #24,621
  • Mar 24, 2009 3:50am Mar 24, 2009 3:50am
alter if i can get you or anyone else to step out of the box and just trust what im telling you AND....

demo on daily charts only until you have a minimum 3 months in a row positive then i can almost garuntee you can build an account when you go live.

i cant make any of you do it but i can tell you the vast majority that do follow that advice have an ahh ha moment during those months of demo.

it happens to almost everyone.

your taking the hard road thinking your taking the easy one.

its ok ive been there brother and i WILL help you if you will let me.

jim



Quoting james16
risk/reward ratios will never even be a consideration for you ever again when you learn to not hope on something happening.

i think your closer to figuring this stuff out than you know. i wasnt sure after you posted your charts but i am now.

what you just said is this....

i was willing to risk a huge loss because i was hoping that the 365 would not hold. when it did hold the amount of positive pips did not meet what i have learned about RRR so i had to ignore it to be trading "right"

read that until it really sinks...
  • #24,622
  • Mar 24, 2009 3:51am Mar 24, 2009 3:51am
like i said your closer than you think.

jim

Quoting alter
Yes Jim this is exactly what I thought it was just not enough pips to take. I was watching this trade to have a trouble at that area, but I didn't feel like to do anything with it at the time.
Thank you for your help, I hope I can do it right next time. I will let you know If I can.
Thank you
aler
  • #24,623
  • Mar 24, 2009 3:58am Mar 24, 2009 3:58am
Quoting alter

Jim the trade was about 35 pips positive at the most. But the risk was 160pips.

alter
Damn you Risk/Reward.

What's the Risk/Reward of a break even trade with 35 pips in the money?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #24,624
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:02am Mar 24, 2009 4:02am
think I may have just had my "ah ha" moment....a 4 hr pinbar (also daily pin) on GBP/JPY that I took 3 weeks ago could have given me 1000 pips if I had held. I closed out for 150 pips as I got scared out of the trade. - I've not seen another setup as good in 3 weeks.

the trouble with this stuff is actually having the confidence to believe that price is going where you think it is and WAITING for the perfect setups.
  • #24,625
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:08am Mar 24, 2009 4:08am
Hi Jim

I've just started on the 'road to recovery' - demo trading daily charts until I have 3 profitable months in a row. It is a very different experience to the angst I was constantly feeling in my previous incarnation as a scalper - there is plenty of time to carefully consider every trade, and I'm trying to school myself only to look at charts morning and evening so that I don't get tempted to do anything stupid. It also makes it easier to keep good records when you only have one trade or so a week!

So far I've made 2 trades - 353 pip gain and 147 pip gain - not sure if this is just beginner's luck, because I still have a great deal to learn (call me 'grasshopper' ).

When I see what looks like a good setup on the daily I skip down to the 1 hour to look for a lower risk entry - I hope that is correct.
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #24,626
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:20am Mar 24, 2009 4:20am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
I am very excited for the fact that other members in this forum are making it, this only proves one thing - this method damn works well !

Nonetheless, I am still working on it, hope someday could report the similar to Jim that I accomplished the three month demo, will go alive. I hope I am experiencing the same pleasure in the journey as others who achieve their goal earlier than me. a BIG thanks to Jim and Mike

Okey, I just closed this UJ trade a couple of minutes ago, as I think its profit target was hit. will look for another opportunity when it arise.





Quoting krue
I think I treat this setup first time seriously by studying its strict form. probably this setup is supposed to be traded upon close of the break out bar (looking into the PA documentation, it seems IB setup is defined once the 3rd bar close above the high of 1st bar, the trigger could be on the open of the 4th bar, or upon retracement from the close of 3rd bar??? correct me if I am wrong)

I jumped in the market already, I guess this is too agressive? This is for sure my problem, if one think this is a problem, coz I am really a person lack of...
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  • #24,627
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:22am Mar 24, 2009 4:22am
Quoting jarroo
Damn you Risk/Reward.

What's the Risk/Reward of a break even trade with 35 pips in the money?
Hm , jaroo so what about USDJPY 2d PIN. It went 65 PIPs up where I see couple of bar lows. If you move your SL to BE you would be already out as the trade came back to your entry . How did you manage the trade?
alter
  • #24,628
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:24am Mar 24, 2009 4:24am
Quoting james16
alter if i can get you or anyone else to step out of the box and just trust what im telling you AND....

demo on daily charts only until you have a minimum 3 months in a row positive then i can almost garuntee you can build an account when you go live.

i cant make any of you do it but i can tell you the vast majority that do follow that advice have an ahh ha moment during those months of demo.

it happens to almost everyone.

your taking the hard road thinking your taking the easy one.

its ok ive been there brother and i WILL...
Just great posts as always Jim.

I am one who had many 'Ahh Ha" moments in my 7 months of demoing. It was very tough for me. I always thought "what a great trade I did . . I wish it was live ". I would go live and it didn't go well, to say the least. Then it was back to demoing.

I always thought that a great PA setup would never present itself again. I thought I was missing out by not going LIVE. As time would tell, they would come back again, over and over again. The transition was easy.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #24,629
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:27am Mar 24, 2009 4:27am
Quoting krue
I am very excited for the fact that other members in this forum are making it, this only proves one thing - this method damn works well !

Nonetheless, I am still working on it, hope someday could report the similar to Jim that I accomplished the three month demo, will go alive. I hope I am experiencing the same pleasure in the journey as others who achieve their goal earlier than me. a BIG thanks to Jim and Mike

Okey, I just closed this UJ trade a couple of minutes ago, as I think its profit target was hit. will look for another opportunity...
I am still in this trade with a small amount, sold most at 97.00. Then now move my stop loss to lock in 100 pips profits, will wait and see how far it will go. Really learn so much from Jim and the rest.
  • #24,630
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:30am Mar 24, 2009 4:30am
I don't share here much, but I read it religiously every day. I wanted to chime in with a couple of things that have been clicking for me.

I've been backtesting using a backtest program. Which means taking trades manually while the market replays as live. It's a great way to get experience under my belt and it means that I can take or pass on 40 weekly pinbars in a day, rather than waiting 3 years for them to appear in demo. I used to think backtesting was to find out if the system works, and hell why did I need that because I believed Jim. Now I realise it's about more than that. It's about testing the real system....me. Honing my bar selection criteria, working on my exits, dealing with the psychologicals....and yes, they do come up while backtesting. At least for me.

I also realised something about A+ and B grade pinbars. I used to get upset if I saw a B grade pinbar take off while everyone celebrated. Why wasn't I in the move? Something clicked when I was backtesting. If B grade trades work 30% of the time, that still means that one in three will work. Doesn't mean I should take them, because the other two will fail and it'll hit my equity curve. But the measure of a good trading decision isn't whether the trade works out or not. It's about my probabilities and expectancy across many many trades. So I am getting less anxious when a PB takes off without me. Because I know trade selection that puts me into that bar, will also put me into two losers tomorrow.

It's just a thought, but I like to keep my posts as a sort of journal log so I can look back over my aha moments.

I have made so many bonehead decisions while learning to trade, given other people my money to trade and watched them lose it, not put in the hours. But it seems that a lot of us go through that. Now I am finally surrendering to the hard work; the minimum requirements, the confidence building, the pickiness, the staying on higher timeframes until I get it. And you know what? It's easier and quicker than I thought. We all seem to look for shortcuts and lose money but what Jim is saying is that, from 26 years of experience, there's no way shorter than his. His minimum requirements are the shortcut. It took this bonehead a little while to realise that. So I won't be touching the 4H until I've mastered the daily and weekly over months. If it takes longer than others, then it takes longer than others.

Another word on higher timeframes. I used to think that we are taught to start there because the bars are more reliable, and they fail less often, so it is a good place to learn. I think that's definitely true. But I think the real lesson is patience. Watching charts night after night after night, and closing them down because there's nothing ideal to trade, I am learning acres and acres of patience. The kind of patience that when and if I go to intraday will allow me to stare at a screen for weeks and take a small handful of trades. That's the lesson. Passing, passing, passing.

Thanks for indulging the ramble guys. I am the anti-Bemac, never one word when a hundred will do.... But one day I want to look back on my FF posting history and see how far I've come.

Happy trading!
  • #24,631
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:42am Mar 24, 2009 4:42am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Exit is the most challenging thing, good to see different style here. good luck, man !

Quoting Ray_1
I am still in this trade with a small amount, sold most at 97.00. Then now move my stop loss to lock in 100 pips profits, will wait and see how far it will go. Really learn so much from Jim and the rest.
  • #24,632
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:43am Mar 24, 2009 4:43am
Quoting marcelnyo
Hey, Chris P was just celebrating his 18th birthday...
HAHA Not quite Marcel. If I was, then I'm sure I wouldn't still be feeling the effects of a big weekend on Tuesday! Add another 11 to that and you're there.

I was fortunate enough to find this thread a year ago. The material here and in the PF has taken my trading up another notch or 5, from somewhere that was profitable but erratic, to a much calmer place. There are many in this thread spanning all ages. I do not envy any of them for finding enlightenment from Jim before I have. We're all enjoying this journey

Best,
Chris
  • #24,633
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:48am Mar 24, 2009 4:48am
Quoting alter
Hm , jaroo so what about USDJPY 2d PIN. It went 65 PIPs up where I see couple of bar lows. If you move your SL to BE you would be already out as the trade came back to your entry . How did you manage the trade?
alter
Sure alter.

As you know I only took 42 pips on the 1st half and break even on the 2nd half.

Chart 1- the PB presented on the 2 Day chart.

Chart 2 - the 4 hour chart to show how I got 42 pips and stopped out at break even on the 2nd half. My entry was 96.71. Price moved up about 63 pips, I didn't think 97.00 would hold because of the previous Lows so I grabbed 42 pips and moved to breakeven. Price came down and stopped me out.
Attached Images
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #24,634
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:53am Mar 24, 2009 4:53am
Quoting TiaForex
I don't share here much, but I read it religiously every day. I wanted to chime in with a couple of things that have been clicking for me.

I've been backtesting using a backtest program.
Great post TiaForex! I think I would benefit from doing this too - may I ask what backtest program you are using? Does it actually allow you to enter demo trades and see how they pan out? Up to now I've been using MT4 and just moving historical data forward bar by bar using F12 but it would be useful to have more backtest functions.

Thanks
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #24,635
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:55am Mar 24, 2009 4:55am
Nice trade. Just to make sure, your SL was on the others side of the PB {330pips}?
  • #24,636
  • Mar 24, 2009 4:57am Mar 24, 2009 4:57am
Quoting gododdin
Great post TiaForex! I think I would benefit from doing this too - may I ask what backtest program you are using? Does it actually allow you to enter demo trades and see how they pan out? Up to now I've been using MT4 and just moving historical data forward bar by bar using F12 but it would be useful to have more backtest functions.

Thanks
The one I use is forextester which I am very happy with. And yes, you can enter demo trades and see how they pan out. It does cost money to buy though.

Other people use VHands which is a free backtesting program for MT4 but I have no experience with this.

Good luck.
  • #24,637
  • Mar 24, 2009 5:01am Mar 24, 2009 5:01am
James and others,

Do you really not think its better to trade smallest lots possible with a small account and prove there u could be positive for 3 months etc, or is it merely the fact that psychologically you think people wont stick to it ?

For me, on demo my mind just tells me to take trades i may not ordinarily take, regardless of how much i tell myself to be honest about it ...

  • #24,638
  • Mar 24, 2009 5:06am Mar 24, 2009 5:06am
I've downloaded a demo of Forextester and will give it a try this evening. Thanks for the info.
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #24,639
  • Mar 24, 2009 5:07am Mar 24, 2009 5:07am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting pipmyride
For me, on demo my mind just tells me to take trades i may not ordinarily take, regardless of how much i tell myself to be honest about it ...

It's a personnel journey, and that statement says it all, i may be new to this thread, but even i would say to you, write that down, put it on you wall so you can see it, then every time you trade, look at it as one of your PA processes.

would I.... really trade this.
  • #24,640
  • Mar 24, 2009 5:09am Mar 24, 2009 5:09am
Quoting alter
Nice trade. Just to make sure, your SL was on the others side of the PB {330pips}?
Sorry, I forgot my initial stop loss placement. I usually place my stop losses very tight, 30 to 40 pips depending on the pair. My confirmation on a valid PA setup, (besides Location, PPZs and other confluences) is how Price break the trigger.

It must break the entry hard and steady to give me validity to my setup. I've talked about this many times. If Price touches my entry and then starts moving against me pretty hard, I'm out. I'll give it a little time to prove itself, but not much. I believe a quality PA setup is a high momentum setup as well. Check the thread for A+ PA setup and see how the break performed. You'll be convinced as well.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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