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No Brainer Trades

  • #9,901
  • Mar 23, 2009 12:18pm Mar 23, 2009 12:18pm
Hey orcus how do you attach charts in excel to track them?
I am trying to do a trade journal and I am super newb to Excel
  • #9,902
  • Mar 23, 2009 12:27pm Mar 23, 2009 12:27pm
Right click on the cell and put in a Hyperlink to the chart gif on your hard drive. It's more convenient if the Excel file is in the same folder as the charts, otherwise you always have to navigate through your whole computer to get to the chart every single time you insert one.
  • #9,903
  • Mar 23, 2009 12:34pm Mar 23, 2009 12:34pm
Excellent. Thanks for the help!
  • #9,904
  • Mar 23, 2009 12:35pm Mar 23, 2009 12:35pm
I'll put up my Excel spreadsheet later for anyone who'd like to use it, it's got most everything you might need for detailed tracking.
  • #9,905
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:45pm Mar 23, 2009 3:45pm
Hi guys,

I was just wondering whether anyone took a GBPUSD short today, expecting it to bounce at around 1.4582. I did (7:30 GMT), and price shot through my stop (20 pips above) like a knife through butter. Incidentally, similar trades on EURUSD (1.3730) and USDJPY (96.50) were quite succesful (I managed to bungle the exits and get less pips that I could have, but that is a different story).

Anyway, I was just wondering whether somebody sees any obvious reasons why the GBPUSD trade failed, or it is simply "one of those". I have been demoing this BRV "bounce" technique for a short time and while I find determining relevant S/R levels quite straightforward (been doing it for a while at J16) anticipating the kind of reaction a level is likely to produce is a whole other story.

Thanks in advance!
  • #9,906
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:54pm Mar 23, 2009 3:54pm
Quoting PipAdder
Hi guys,

I was just wondering whether anyone took a GBPUSD short today, expecting it to bounce at around 1.4582. I did (7:30 GMT), and price shot through my stop (20 pips above) like a knife through butter. Incidentally, similar trades on EURUSD (1.3730) and USDJPY (96.50) were quite succesful (I managed to bungle the exits and get less pips that I could have, but that is a different story).

Anyway, I was just wondering whether somebody sees any obvious reasons why the GBPUSD trade failed, or it is simply "one of those". I have been demoing...
I saw the level at the last minute and nearly opened my broker up to short it but it was based on pretty short term resistance levels and I prefer to find agreement of levels on the 4hr & daily. And while I see there is a daily high of about this price figure on 2/24, with the 1.46 resistance zone just a little further above, I held off the 1.458 level

I was thinking maybe the US market would take profit near the close, helping a USD gain + the resistance line @ 1.458...eh. I was left in the middle, indecisive and thus, it's obviously not a no brainer short.

We have plenty of better levels to come in the next session.

Thoughts?
  • #9,907
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:00pm Mar 23, 2009 4:00pm
I'd just have guessed that having already had two bounces from that area within a couple days, most recently just on Friday, it was not high probability that it would bounce a third time.
  • #9,908
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:37pm Mar 23, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting orcus
I'd just have guessed that having already had two bounces from that area within a couple days, most recently just on Friday, it was not high probability that it would bounce a third time.
This could be a very good reason, and I am glad you bring it up because I often end up second-guessing myself about how meaningful the number of bounces on a level is... The logic behind it (at least how I understand it) is that if the level has seen a lot of transit (been tested) recently this transit is going to use up the orders sitting there (or the supply, if you prefer that term in the case of a resistance) until nothing remains to hold price and the resistance is broken. Great... but how much transit is a lot of transit? I wouldn't bet on a bounce if price had spent there plenty of time -several H1 bars, for example- the last time it tested it, but why does a test that happened last friday invalidate the level, especially if it was -as in this case- just a relatively brief kiss? Surely there is enough time from friday morning to monday morning for new sell orders to pile up at that level, provided the level itself is obvious enough... I guess I am just wondering what people here consider a "reasonable" amount of time since the last test for the level to be regarded as still reliable and likely to produce a bounce.

It is true that as Sam mentioned the level wasn't as clearly visible as others, but there were a number of bar tops towards the end of February in that region. Although that may have been my wishful thinking, looking for additional reasons to take the trade after the level became clearly visible last week
  • #9,909
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:46pm Mar 23, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting orcus
Paul, thanks for the response. What did you mean by 5 hours and 20 pips off, though? If you meant the correct entry would have been 5 hours later and 20 pips lower, are there any things that might have indicated to me (in advance) that that would be the better entry? And wouldn't the initial 40+ pip bounce from nearby have warned me off?
Hi Orcus

To answer your question - yes, that was what I meant. There was a 'better' entry 5 hours later and 20 pips lower. But that wasn't the point of my initial reply to you.

Equally, I have no idea if there were any signs that you should have waited another 5 hours to get in at 20 points lower. In fact, I purposely didn't look at the chart before writing this post because, if I had done so, I could have come up with half a dozen different reasons why the entry you chose was the worst in the world. And I could have come up with even more reasons why you should have waited that extra 5 hours. The problem with me doing that of course was that I would have been trading in 'hindsight' and,trust me, I'm really good at that. If I could find a broker who would accept my trades 24 hours after they have happened I'd be worth a fortune!!

The real substance to my last post was actually to point out the fact that, despite finding a trade that didn't fly to the moon as soon as you should have clicked the 'buy' button, you would have still made a profit. How would you have acheived that? By exhibiting what is really needed to succeed in this industry - good money management. By knowing how to manage the trade correctly, you would have made a profit or, at least, broken even.

And you are questioning if there was better entry - puhlease!! Think about it, most people in this game can't make money from a good entry and..........you made a profit from a supposedly poor one?

Now that is good going!!

And how would you have done it? By following good money management rules.

That was the whole point of my last post. Don't worry about looking for the perfect entry, they are there, but they can only be found in hindsight trading.

You keep doing what you are doing, find a trade that matches your criterion and you trade it to your money management rules - just like you would have done with the trades you mentioned. And if you do nothing more than that you will be very rich one day.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #9,910
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:46pm Mar 23, 2009 4:46pm
Here's one I apparently forgot to set an alarm for, which is just as well because it didn't work out. Seemed pretty promising:

AUD/USD short @ .7000 - .7030 -- repeat SR respected many times from both sides at least as far back as October; edge of gap from January; perfect confluence with 76 fib.

edit: thanks again Paul
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  • #9,911
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:00pm Mar 23, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting orcus
Here's one I apparently forgot to set an alarm for, which is just as well because it didn't work out. Seemed pretty promising:

AUD/USD short @ .7000 - .7030 -- repeat SR respected many times from both sides at least as far back as October; edge of gap from January; perfect confluence with 76 fib.

edit: thanks again Paul
I'm watching for possible short around .7265
  • #9,912
  • Edited 5:37pm Mar 23, 2009 5:28pm | Edited 5:37pm
Quoting orcus
Here's one I apparently forgot to set an alarm for, which is just as well because it didn't work out. Seemed pretty promising:

AUD/USD short @ .7000 - .7030 -- repeat SR respected many times from both sides at least as far back as October; edge of gap from January; perfect confluence with 76 fib.

edit: thanks again Paul
I'm obviously looking at this hindsight but it seems as though there was two bounces off .70, the first giving a potential 50points, the second giving a potential 75 points, both of which could not break previous resistance now turned support (fell back to .695 before trying again at the .7 resistance).

Even if you shorted the initial breakout, you would have had the opportunity to move stops to B/E at +20-25, depending on your entry and spread...??

I know from your previous posts, you like to let your trades run their course to a S/L around 40 points and we've yet to see this trade fully develop as it may still dive back down and the move above .70 was simple an effort to run stops.

But the two previous rejections at that price point (.70), within just a few hours, should have either negated the trade entirely or had you looking to close at a loss or move stops to break even if you had a limit order tagged around .7030.

Everything is hindsight...but a breakout above .70 after an ascending triangle would hopefully keep me away from this trade. While we're at it, we can add in more hindsight excuses like the large USD bear/bull US stocks today, etc. etc.

Another thing I wanted to ask you was if you discriminate between pairs and your perceived reaction zones? I notice that you focus on a broad range of pairs and while S&R levels are used across all majors, I feel that sometimes it may be easier to find better respected levels (more often) on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF...NZD/USD & AUD/USD have not necessarily been my favorites personally...

What are your thoughts on this? What do your stats say in regards to pairs traded and their reactions to areas you deemed ideal for a bounce?
  • #9,913
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:29pm Mar 23, 2009 5:29pm
Quoting mike45
I'm watching for possible short around .7265
Yep, I have this level set with a call alert...I don't like my AUD/USD spread but this level looks pretty blatantly obvious.
  • #9,914
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:52pm Mar 23, 2009 5:52pm
Quoting sam0182
I'm obviously looking at this hindsight but it seems as though there was two bounces off .70, the first giving a potential 50points, the second giving a potential 75 points, both of which could not break previous resistance now turned support (fell back to .695 before trying again at the .7 resistance).
Oh, gotcha. Since I failed to set an alarm and didn't actually take or monitor the trade, I guess I didn't look closely enough at the 5m afterwards to see how it would have done -- you're right, the first 50 pip bounce would have netted me 20 pips before being stopped at BE. Thanks for pointing that out.

Quote
Another thing I wanted to ask you was if you discriminate between pairs and your perceived reaction zones? I notice that you focus on a broad range of pairs and while S&R levels are used across all majors, I feel that sometimes it may be easier to find better respected levels (more often) on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF...NZD/USD & AUD/USD have not necessarily been my favorites personally...

What are your thoughts on this? What do your stats say in regards to pairs traded and their reactions to areas you deemed ideal for a bounce?

I haven't delved too far into this yet. I have been prioritizing in the order of BRV's stated preference (based on predictability), which goes: E/U, U/J, G/U, U/CH, U/CA, A/U.

At the end of this month I'll take a closer look to see how trades have been going based on pairs. I'm not an expert with Excel and I've got to set up a worksheet that can plot all that out for me. Then I'll try and figure out something less rigid as far as stops, TPs, and BEs go. Of course I don't want to fall into the curve fitting trap.
  • #9,915
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:20pm Mar 23, 2009 7:20pm
Quoting Siam
Waiting to see how price reacts around this level.

A nice break would hopefully see us heading towards 14.000 area. Shorts, I 'll wait for a reversal bar for confirmation.

Sushi up
  • #9,916
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:29pm Mar 23, 2009 7:29pm
Loonie is being held up by a nice diagonal here, with a strong level of support not far below. lets see if the market can break these two lines of defence in the coming days.
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  • #9,917
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:37pm Mar 23, 2009 7:37pm
While we are at it.

There are so many charts to watch today.
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  • #9,918
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:38pm Mar 23, 2009 7:38pm
What do you, guys, think of EUR/CHF around 1.5160 ?
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  • #9,919
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:45pm Mar 23, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting mike45
What do you, guys, think of EUR/CHF around 1.5160 ?

It does'nt look bad.

I forget whose signature has this quote in it " Support and resistance either holds or it doesn't"

It's true for any obvious level, all we can do is be prepared.
  • #9,920
  • Mar 23, 2009 10:08pm Mar 23, 2009 10:08pm
This is my chart for the day. target 132,45 first, 132.03 next. Looking for the drop and will take whatever pips on offer, and then rebuy at either of those levels.
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