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  • #9,881
  • Mar 21, 2009 1:20pm Mar 21, 2009 1:20pm
I shorted two lots of USD/CAD 1.2410 - 1.2366 with 2×44pips....

Thanks Canada
  • #9,882
  • Mar 22, 2009 3:17pm Mar 22, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting orcus
Things I'm watching, feeback welcome as always:

USD/JPY short @ 95.60 -- obvious SR; long-term SR in this area (95.70-80); 38 fib of drop down (95.61); trend continuation of the death of the dollar

EUR/USD long @ 1.3540 -- obvious SR with previous reactions from both sides in January, October, etc; 61 fib of this last surge up after consolidating a bit, trend continuation
Okay, how these worked out:

EUR/USD max drawdown 0 pips (gooooooooooal), max profit 109 pips. The thing is, though, if I followed accepted wisdom to "never let a winner turn into a loser", I'd have taken off half the position at +40 and moved the stop to BE, and been stopped out on the second test, for a total gain of only 20 pips. Or if I'd only moved stop to BE but not taken partial profits, I'd have ended up with nothing.

USD/JPY max drawdown 6 pips, max profit 44 pips. So again, I'd have ended up with a 20 pip gain.

Of course, I ended up entering neither trade, because price was moving too quickly on approach to the lines, and as I've said, 99% of the time when that has happened to me price has blasted through the line and never looked back.

I get the impression no one else was really looking at these lines, except Leveraged Joe up there. Might I ask why not? This is what I'm still trying to figure out -- visually, these lines were about as obvious as it could get, staring you in the face on the charts, and it seems like there were plenty of other confirming factors, but it seems most of the experienced folk here looked elsewhere -- at lines that are not obvious to me even when pointed out -- and had the same or better success.
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  • #9,883
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:30pm Mar 22, 2009 9:30pm
My open orders for today

Two lots for USD/CHF
Short 1.1350 Target 1.1170

One lot for GBP/JPY
Short 141.50 Target OPEN
Short 140.00 Target 137.70

I'll go to sleep now , wake up before the USD NEWS....
  • #9,884
  • Mar 23, 2009 2:46am Mar 23, 2009 2:46am
Quoting orcus
Okay, how these worked out:

EUR/USD max drawdown...
Hi Orcus

IMWO you are sweating the small stuff and looking for perfection. To avoid that crime you need to look at the larger picture. I know it's not easy but I reckon that is the case.

In trading I've heard it said that 'timing is everything' and in the trades you're talking about, that was your 'problem' - if you can call it that.

In the Euro you were out on your timing by 5 hours and about 20 pips. On the Yen you were out by a bit more. But the main thing is that you managed the trades correctly and so made a small profit. And that is the main thing.

If you carry on trading like that you will get the timing right - sometimes - and sometimes you'll get it wrong. But you can't predict when that will be and so all you can do (control?) is your position size and your money management and, in this case you did that just fine.

So I guess what I'm trying to say is that you are in the right area 'basically' and trading in the right direction with good trade management. Don't look for perfection - it isn't there. All we can expect is 'about right'.

And if that isn't enough, look at it like this. You did better than about 90% of the rest of the traders in the market at that time. That ain't all bad, is it?

I hope this helps.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #9,885
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:22am Mar 23, 2009 3:22am
USDCAD alrigt I am still in my longterm long trades and looking at how they play out...

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  • #9,886
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:45am Mar 23, 2009 4:45am
Long @ 1.4450 area. H4 chart: What do you think?
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  • #9,887
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:56am Mar 23, 2009 4:56am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Hi Orcus

IMWO you are sweating the small stuff and looking for perfection. To avoid that crime you need to look at the larger picture. I know it's not easy but I reckon that is the case.

In trading I've heard it said that 'timing is everything' and in the trades you're talking about, that was your 'problem' - if you can call it that.

In the Euro you were out on your timing by 5 hours and about 20 pips. On the Yen you were out by a bit more. But the main thing is that you managed the trades correctly and so made a small profit. And that is...
I see you've found the light switch.
  • #9,888
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:01am Mar 23, 2009 5:01am
Quoting Grath
Long @ 1.4450 area. H4 chart: What do you think?

be aware that if price retraces again from this high it would be getting a bitt weak since it would be te third fail without exploding up...also when you buy at the area your mention you are taking a risk that once price gets to that area te market could start looking like a crown
  • #9,889
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:20am Mar 23, 2009 5:20am
Quoting RedCabbage
I see you've found the light switch.
Morning RC - yes I think I have. Thanks!

Admittedly, it's just a dimmer switch and so the light's not too bright at the moment. But it's just a matter of time before I turn it on full.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #9,890
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:45am Mar 23, 2009 6:45am
Hi everyone here,

I am new to forex market and i have been learning a lot from this thread. thanks to all the contributors.

Can any one tell is this a breakout in EUR/JPY. So should one go long here with a stop below previous resistance 130.05?

Any views on this trade?
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  • #9,891
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:47am Mar 23, 2009 7:47am
short at 141.45, moved stop loss to break even,
  • #9,892
  • Mar 23, 2009 9:08am Mar 23, 2009 9:08am
Watching GBP/USD @ 1.44-1.4385 for a bounce.
  • #9,893
  • Mar 23, 2009 9:28am Mar 23, 2009 9:28am
Hi Sam

Just reading your post, are you expecting the gbp/usd to drop to 1.44-1.4385? then bounce

If so, it was a great idea to short it, from i see it would have been a nice one?

even nicer if it bounces, in these immortal words "may the force be with you"

lol
  • #9,894
  • Mar 23, 2009 9:52am Mar 23, 2009 9:52am
Quoting hemantaims
Hi everyone here,

I am new to forex market and i have been learning a lot from this thread. thanks to all the contributors.

Can any one tell is this a breakout in EUR/JPY. So should one go long here with a stop below previous resistance 130.05?

Any views on this trade?
trading breakouts is a tough gig. i would rather buy dips in eurjpy and usdjpy. jpy is fundamentally weak, and as stock market improves, jpy will continue to weaken.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #9,895
  • Mar 23, 2009 10:09am Mar 23, 2009 10:09am
Quoting trader69
trading breakouts is a tough gig. i would rather buy dips in eurjpy and usdjpy. jpy is fundamentally weak, and as stock market improves, jpy will continue to weaken.
thanks sir

it is really tough.. especially when it comes back and hits your stop loss( and goes up again in your original direction). i will be more cautious next time.
  • #9,896
  • Mar 23, 2009 10:56am Mar 23, 2009 10:56am
Quoting matty rasul
Hi Sam

Just reading your post, are you expecting the gbp/usd to drop to 1.44-1.4385? then bounce

If so, it was a great idea to short it, from i see it would have been a nice one?

even nicer if it bounces, in these immortal words "may the force be with you"

lol
I'm not sure if the GBP/USD will get down to that price today but it does look as if it may right now. I'm just looking to get a bounce at the 1.44 figure based on the daily/four hour price reaction.
  • #9,897
  • Mar 23, 2009 11:28am Mar 23, 2009 11:28am
Paul, thanks for the response. What did you mean by 5 hours and 20 pips off, though? If you meant the correct entry would have been 5 hours later and 20 pips lower, are there any things that might have indicated to me (in advance) that that would be the better entry? And wouldn't the initial 40+ pip bounce from nearby have warned me off?
  • #9,898
  • Edited 12:14pm Mar 23, 2009 11:37am | Edited 12:14pm
Quoting orcus
Paul, thanks for the response. What did you mean by 5 hours and 20 pips off, though? If you meant the correct entry would have been 5 hours later and 20 pips lower, are there any things that might have indicated to me (in advance) that that would be the better entry? And wouldn't the initial 40+ pip bounce from nearby have warned me off?
To add to what Paul said, it's obvious that you're getting the levels correct, which is great and should be encouraging.

From your posts, I feel that more discretion is needed in regards to price action, stops & targets. No set in stone 40 pip SL w/100 pip TP (for example) will work every time.

Just my observation and I'm a trader that's down 10% for the year so take it with a (discretionary < there's that word again!) grain of salt


You're doing well Orcus, keep at it.
  • #9,899
  • Mar 23, 2009 11:48am Mar 23, 2009 11:48am
Hey guys, I just read through BRV's posts and I must say that I really enjoy it. The only question I have at the moment is regarding entering a trade. When price comes close to significant S/R do I enter the trade when the current bar closes? Because that seems like the smart thing to do IMO.

The problem I see with that though is that I will miss out on some big moves. But is that really a bad thing... especially if the bar/candlestick that is testing the S/R isnt closed yet. It could shoot right through my stop loss potentially correct?

I am sure the answer is somewhere in this thread... but 600 pages is a lot to look through!

Thanks
  • #9,900
  • Mar 23, 2009 12:10pm Mar 23, 2009 12:10pm
Sam, thanks for the encouragement. Yeah, price action is definitely something I have a long way to go on. In my Excel spreadsheet of all my levels/trades, I attach charts of the 5m and 1h price action at and after entry so I can go back and see how price was acting and how it turned out, and hopefully start to recognize some things.
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