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  • #1,041
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:36pm Mar 22, 2009 10:36pm
Knight in shining white armour - have you seen your baby is making her move?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,042
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:41pm Mar 22, 2009 10:41pm
Quoting strat
Thank you, bj, but I would have preferred you not reply to those looking for a free meal.

From your point of view, you did as good a job as anyone on here so well done, you should be proud.

I don't know what the J16 strict definition of "tweezer" tops and bottoms is but for me, I want to see them EQUAL or at least within 1 or 2 pips. Anything more, and it is a LOWER high or HIGHER bottom
OK. I was just using this opportunity to practice my analytical skills.

J16 strict definition of DHLC is that the highs should be within 2 pips of each other.
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #1,043
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:48pm Mar 22, 2009 10:48pm
Hi Strat,
I was just looking over the cad/usd and i see it has started to move lower today, i know we wont know until the candle closes, but could this be the MM hunting stops of people who have jumped in to the pin bar on thursday without waiting for confirmation??? time will tell i suppose, i just thought it might be, so thought i would make mention of it.
Back to the drawing board
cheers
geoff
  • #1,044
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:57pm Mar 22, 2009 10:57pm
As I'm in the last week of my China trip, I am able to observe the Asian trading. Today, they were quiet until about an hour ago (7:30pm PST) when things started moving with increased volume. With JPY weakness all across the board, it is obvious they are selling JPY.

When I see Asian activity higher than normal I get suspicious wondering what is behind it. Is it another surge to weaken the JPY or is there something else? They are not buying $US that's for sure.

Going back in history, Asian Trading was usually a "retrace" or reaction to what London and NY did. Then London and NY would come in and take it all back and more but since 08-18-08, the face of Asian Trading has changed.

Just nothing more than my suspicious nature, I suppose.

This has nothing to do with any of my trading, just enhancing my knowledge.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,045
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:08pm Mar 22, 2009 11:08pm
Quoting geoffrod
Hi Strat,
I was just looking over the cad/usd and i see it has started to move lower today, i know we wont know until the candle closes, but could this be the MM hunting stops of people who have jumped in to the pin bar on thursday without waiting for confirmation??? time will tell i suppose, i just thought it might be, so thought i would make mention of it.
Back to the drawing board
cheers
geoff
No, the MMs and big boys are not interested in this yet. Anyone trading the hammer with either a long or short position with the lowest risk are still safe having not being filled. Those that gambled on direction and placed their order within the body of the hammer are either in profit or sweating. Those knowing, will have stop orders below the low of yesterday's IB

Stop runs stand out like a sore thumb - look at the highs in USDCAD history or any of the exotics.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,046
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:19pm Mar 22, 2009 11:19pm
I know I risk getting soundly thrashed about the head and shoulders but I must ask a question for my own edification.

We are talking about using PA combined with S/R and common sense to guide our forex trading on Daily charts, supported by Weekly and Monthly interpretation. I love it.

Now the question which is appropriate to the upcoming week.

We know that today Geithner will be announcing his toxic asset plan, tomorrow Odrama will be having a "fireside chat" about the state of the economy and Wednesday Geithner will be talking again about financial industry regulation and executive compensation.

I cannot imagine that anything they say will support a stronger dollar move this week. Maybe I'm wrong but that's my take on it.

I certainly am not promoting news trading, but, is it appropriate for us to keep this in the back of our minds as we look at PA and S/R for entry opportunities? For me this seems like a mental S/R zone which is not apparent on the charts.

Strat - beat me up if you wish but I had to ask the question.
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #1,047
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:35pm Mar 22, 2009 11:35pm
Quoting bjohn34

I cannot imagine that anything they say will support a stronger dollar move this week. Maybe I'm wrong but that's my take on it.

I certainly am not promoting news trading, but, is it appropriate for us to keep this in the back of our minds as we look at PA and S/R for entry opportunities? For me this seems like a mental S/R zone which is not apparent on the charts.
Absolutely keep up on the fundamentals. The weakening dollar could turn out to be the trade of the year. 1,200 points in March already and they are just getting started.
History is written by the victors.
  • #1,048
  • Mar 23, 2009 1:13am Mar 23, 2009 1:13am
Here's some price action. If this bar ends up closing as an exhaustion bar, shorts off the bottom should take us to the 61.8% or the 50% retrace.

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/442/audusd.gif

About the lateness. I know you guys don't want excuses, so I'll give none. I guess when things come up things come up. Sorry about it.
Bang.
  • #1,049
  • Mar 23, 2009 1:52am Mar 23, 2009 1:52am
Quoting bjohn34
I know I risk getting soundly thrashed about the head and shoulders but I must ask a question for my own edification.

We are talking about using PA combined with S/R and common sense to guide our forex trading on Daily charts, supported by Weekly and Monthly interpretation. I love it.

Now the question which is appropriate to the upcoming week.

We know that today Geithner will be announcing his toxic asset plan, tomorrow Odrama will be having a "fireside chat" about the state of the economy and Wednesday Geithner will be talking again about...
bj, when you're on here putting in the effort, you can ask any question you like without fear of "getting beaten up".

I have listened to so many discussions and arguments about the pros and cons of technicals versus funny mentals that I don't listen anymore. There are many traders who successfully trade on fundamentals and believe they know where the market is going while the technical analysts believe everything is ALREADY factored in.

I renewed my interest in following this as the financial collapse of the US and European banking systems evolved. The first to collapse was the US, so one would have thought that the $ would weaken but instead it strengthened. Then the ECB collapsed and one would have expected the Euro to weaken, but it strengthened. Then, when all hell broke loose, the $ starts strengthening supposedly because everyone is selling stocks and buying bonds. Then each currency moved inverse to their rate adjustment!

This confirmed to my simple, logical 2 + 2 = 4 brain, that I cannot make head nor tail of funny mental economics therefore I ignore it and just trust what I see on my charts.

I do know that trading the Daily time frame keeps us relatively immune from the wild swings that are seen on the lower time frame from news announcements. At the most, a news announcement may cause a "wobble" but after the excitement and everyone calms down it's back to "business as usual".

The only news I stay clear of is NFP on the first Friday of the month.

So the short answer is I ignore it as I believe it is already factored in and whatever happens will be left in the footprints of those who have gone before us.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,050
  • Mar 23, 2009 2:57am Mar 23, 2009 2:57am
One of my favorite bands is called "tool".They have a song called "lateralis"
The chourus goes;

Over thinking,over analysing separates the body and the mind,
withering my intuition leaving oppotunities behind!!!

It goes on to say live your life in the fibonacci or spiral rather than in straight lines.......VVV cool.

Didnt get sucked in on the ol Cadjpy........by like 10 pips...haha...Sir losealot rides on!!!!

As long as you dont slander her Majesty,every Briton has the right to dissent and Free speech.You stay on your soapbox its good for my head......g

Also every Briton has the right to use lethal force if;
They are in a "hositle enviroment" and are the "last man standing".

Also its is illegal to shake rugs in any Royal park and any Freeman of london can drive sheep over london bridge at any time...

knowledge is power
  • #1,051
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:09am Mar 23, 2009 3:09am
And if your dying for a wazz and are in public and you are a gentleman we have a legal solution.
A.Openly declare your pain by shouting "damn" or "bugger" 3 times being careful not to slander her majesty.
B.Walk to the nearest tree.
C.Relax and enjoy knowing you have Parliment herself behind your undertaking of wazzing in public......

power indeed

Constitution......who needs them?
  • #1,052
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:24am Mar 23, 2009 3:24am
After nearly being sucked in on the most boring cross in the world or so it seems....cadjpy my top secret indicator gave me a signal.

I shall share it with you....

Its the "butt ring" indi.

My "butt ring" pukkad up as tight as tight can be...which is not a good sign.

I realize my larger cluelessness and my "wait for more bars" mandate naturaly has effect on cad jpy.

So in accordance with the "Butt ring" activation protocols i have removed my order allowing my butt ring to relax and i can continue with my plan......thanks....g
  • #1,053
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:08am Mar 23, 2009 4:08am
I might be alone here but i really wish that since this was Strat's thread, that it would be mostly strat posting about his analysis and methods with the occasional question from others, instead of the other way around.

Unfortunately this thread is getting filled with too much useless posts that its getting quite a drag to read ..

Strat, loved the earlier pages but sorry its getting out of hand ... maybe you dont mind, but thats just me
  • #1,054
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:21am Mar 23, 2009 4:21am
And so the story goeth, that Ye Queens of Canadiens and Japanese asketh our Knight in shining white armour to goest and bringest untold riches for her pleasure. "But alas, thou must doest it without the King being knowest of our secret", spoketh the Queen to our Knight. "I camst to doeth whatever thou wishest my Queen, for I knowest thou will rewardest me with thy Grail", sayeth the Knight.

Mounteth on his white horse, our Knight in shining white armour rodest and rodest and waiteth and waiteth but, alas, without riches. As he sleepeth beneath a tree one night, he was awaketh with huge pain in his butt causeth by a large boot in which the King stoodst. "Messeth with my Queen once more, Knight, and your manhood wil be removedst and stuckest where the sun no longer shineth", spokest the King.

And so our once cockieth Knight, no longer shineth in his armour, camst upon his Queen of Canadiens and Japanese and sayest to her that he couldst no longer pleasure her, for his butt ring has been painest from the boot of the King!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,055
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:45am Mar 23, 2009 4:45am
Quoting pipmyride
I might be alone here but i really wish that since this was Strat's thread, that it would be mostly strat posting about his analysis and methods with the occasional question from others, instead of the other way around.

Unfortunately this thread is getting filled with too much useless posts that its getting quite a drag to read ..

Strat, loved the earlier pages but sorry its getting out of hand ... maybe you dont mind, but thats just me
That's why one of the posters on here took the time to create an Index with the most relevant information in it. Why don't you take the time to go back a few pages where you'll find it, then you won't have to worry about the rest of us again.
  • #1,056
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:59am Mar 23, 2009 5:59am
I am not a news trader but the Japanese manufacturing numbers last night (which were really bad) did help my yen trade.
See here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar...=2009-3-22&c=2
  • #1,057
  • Mar 23, 2009 6:13am Mar 23, 2009 6:13am
Two weeks ago I sent this story to Strat and said, should we sell Euro's now?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...in-months.html
The price at the time was 1.26
He sent me one of his classic replies saying that this was the big boys talking up their books and a good reason to buy Euro's
The price today is 1.36 and going up.

Nicola
  • #1,058
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:17am Mar 23, 2009 7:17am
Well, the upgrade wasn't smooth but I got it done eventually. Unfortunately, it took much longer. For reasons I don't know, my DVD-ROM drive wouldn't read the Vista Business 64 bit upgrade disk (my laptop saw it fine) so I had to run out and buy a new one. But it's all good now!

As a result of the upgrade problems, I didn't get any chance to look at charts as it wasn't until 6pm or so Sunday night that I reinstalled my trading software and then I was out for the rest of the evening. Sorry I wasn't able to do up my comments!
  • #1,059
  • Mar 23, 2009 8:53am Mar 23, 2009 8:53am
Hi Strat,

As I mentioned early on in the thread, I have been trading the daily timeframe for about four weeks now, having found out at a little cost that 15 minute, indicator heavy trading was not for me. Since I’ve moved to the daily, I have had only 3 losing trades – if I keep trading at this level, I’ll be able to buy everyone on the thread a Ford Capri!

However, while I am planning my trades, I am not trading my plan. I am moving my stop to lock in profit quite quickly and as such, I am leaning more towards trading my entry as opposed to my TP. I NEVER close a trade but move my stop and let the market decide. This has meant a few trades being stopped at BE, a few for 30 – 40 pips, and a few (mostly the Yen pairs) for 100s. My bottom line profitability is fantastic, but I am conscious this is/might be a flaw in my approach – I think I am not letting the market ‘breath’ enough.

As you said to one poster a few pages back, as long you make profit, it’s never a bad trade, but I can’t help thinking that one day the market is going to catch me out. I appreciate this is a fairly opened ended question, but could you give me your thoughts on this approach. It fits in with Jacko’s approach and he’s done alright (!), but would appreciate your thoughts.

Thanks
Dan
  • #1,060
  • Mar 23, 2009 9:29am Mar 23, 2009 9:29am
Keep going for another 3 months as you are and market will give you the answer.....g

On demo with all your systems fully operational....g
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