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  • #1,001
  • Mar 22, 2009 3:56am Mar 22, 2009 3:56am
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
Quoting strat
Hans, all those red arrows are not resistance points - have you read J16 on PPZ yet?
Yes I did , but will read it again, its hard to lose old habits.
With 3 grand kids on my knee for the next 3 weeks I will find some time at night to study!

thank's for comment strat.
  • #1,002
  • Mar 22, 2009 4:17am Mar 22, 2009 4:17am
Quoting strat
Lance (rogueforex) prompted me to look at USDCAD with that level he posted.

When I look through the time frames, I see a BEARISH emphasis!

Monthly is bearish

Weekly is bearish

Daily is bullish BUT is completely over ridden by the BOSS and HER BOSS!

In this case, I favour shorts
This is opposite of what we discussed yesterday so I will look at again before placing long order.

I just looked at it. I think I can enter the Buy Stop above the previous bar as planned. If move is long is OK. If not order entry probably never get hit and can look for another PA to enter short.
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #1,003
  • Mar 22, 2009 4:22am Mar 22, 2009 4:22am
Well the thing with IBs is they can mean different things at different places.

Considering where all the crosses are and how quickly this "new reality" happend price has gone in my mind as far as she can without a major push or pull.

Gbp/swiss is a good example or cable herself........

Off the lows....boss engagment counter trend or nearly engaged on gbp/swiss.

Usd yen fell off the 100 resis level(cadjpy...off 78.00)

aussie and kiwi ready to break there channels counter trend

swissy and cad looking to take a plunge...its all at the same spot.

No suprise we get multipul IBs butting right up to the flip point in my mind.

My plan is to wait for a directional bar.I may miss 100s of pips if it pops but i think the infomation is worth more at this point.

what do you guys think.....g
  • #1,004
  • Mar 22, 2009 4:27am Mar 22, 2009 4:27am
Quoting bjohn34
My week end look at GBPUSD. Comments appreciated.

Monthly - Monthly bar bullish and is forming PB or hammer but will not be sure until next week when it closes but unless something dramatic happens, it will...
NICE

never seen a bull or bear IB i like it....lets see if there is anything in that
  • #1,005
  • Mar 22, 2009 4:29am Mar 22, 2009 4:29am
He did say didnt he was gonna do this?
  • #1,006
  • Mar 22, 2009 4:37am Mar 22, 2009 4:37am
Quoting strat
Pizza man, ye hast taken me back to the days of yore when bad brother John stole the throne while good King Richard (The Lionheart) was on his Middle East tour!

I now seeeth that thou are indeedst Robin Hood since thou camst from Nottingham, taking from the rich (brokers and MMs) and giveth to the poor (amateur traders). Nay, couldst thou beest The Bard, for thou art indeedst foresooth in thy tongue? Or couldst thou be the Knight of the Round Table forever trying to have thy way with thy Queen in the search of her Grail?

Whence comest thou, I...

you are a legend.... i have saved that to my hard drive.
  • #1,007
  • Mar 22, 2009 4:38am Mar 22, 2009 4:38am
Quoting Baba G
Well the thing with IBs is they can mean different things at different places.


My plan is to wait for a directional bar.I may miss 100s of pips if it pops but i think the infomation is worth more at this point.

what do you guys think.....g
I agree. Looks to me like all these Friday IBs may be a result of the Fed announcement early last week which made everything move to a weaker dollar position for 2-3 days. Then on Friday, volume down and direction non commital as many traders saying "hmmm.... now what?"

I think wait to see what happens next is best plan.
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #1,008
  • Mar 22, 2009 4:39am Mar 22, 2009 4:39am
Quoting strat
I wouldn't do it because you will be trading straight into support at BIG psycho 1.6000 and 1.5850.

The last two daily bars are IBs so there may be better prices later.

Remember, you DON"T have to trade - why not wait for the trade that stands out?
Word to the mother!!!!!
  • #1,009
  • Mar 22, 2009 6:02am Mar 22, 2009 6:02am
Gettin closer - hopefully
Having done some more research on the GY TLs it does seem that the pattern does repeat itself over many pairs (historically) and it does seem as if the 3rd TL of the lowering fanning effect is the key one. Often PA will test the 3rd TL and the direction from this test gives us a clue as to the future direction. It does seem as if PA consolidates before a move (ie lowering of momentum) and it will often re-test the fanning TLs from underneath.

USDCHF from the hammer on 13 Mar 08 could be a good example.
We had a low and 3 fans from this. To draw a TL I always look for a low, high, higher low at least before I draw an up TL and the reverse for a down (ie high, low, lower high).

All 3 TLs eminate from the hammer and when broken are tested from underneath, all the while prices are falling uniformly (ie within a channel of highs, lows).

So, it looks like PA is consolidating before moving up again off the 3rd TL. It does look to create the 1st bull flag in usdchf's case. It's almost as if the market has shown its hand too early with a steep rise that is unsustainable, so the PA falls away, (momentum) but doesn't break into what could be seen as a downtrend continuing. The will to go higher is there but the horse has bolted from the stable too fast and needs to catch his breath before continuing!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #1,010
  • Mar 22, 2009 6:19am Mar 22, 2009 6:19am

FTSE Futures
We have a bullish monthly pattern but bearish weekly and daily. PA now rests on the SR level at 7200 ish with the daily 20 ma just below.
If the weekly shooting star comes into play and busts these levels then the bear market continues in my view. Short order at 7080.

Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #1,011
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:30am Mar 22, 2009 8:30am
Hi Team Strat.

Does anybody have any thoughts on the 48 hour hammer we saw Thursday/Friday on USD/JPY?

I mentioned the other day that i thought the 93 level was very important, acting as a strong PPZ and having confluence with a 50 Fib level. I'm seeing possible hesitation at 97, but perhaps a Buy Stop above that level with stop loss at 93.30? First target would be around 99, with possible retest of strong psycho 100 level.

On the weekly, we have had a strong bullish period with a retracement to the 50% level, and i think we're going to see it have another go at 100.

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  • #1,012
  • Edited 9:37am Mar 22, 2009 9:19am | Edited 9:37am
Quoting bjohn34
I agree. Looks to me like all these Friday IBs may be a result of the Fed announcement early last week which made everything move to a weaker dollar position for 2-3 days. Then on Friday, volume down and direction non commital as many traders saying "hmmm.... now what?"
I think wait to see what happens next is best plan.
I agree. Inside bars have to be at really significant support / resistance levels to get me in. I am still very bullish EU, Cable, AUDUSD and NZDUSD and would prefer to buy on dips than trust that IB against a strong trend.

On some of them, like Aussie which has broken a major resistance level I would like to see it retrace and test to the 20ema and find support.
EURUSD has also broken out of a major range and formed a bottom. She is stopped at the 61.8 fib and has quite a way to fall back to the 20ema but I still see it making a big W and I remain bullish.

USDCHF is the only chart that confuses me. Price broke up and out on the news of the SNB intervention and then fell very hard right through the range, double the amount of the climb. The level she stopped at is the weekly 50, 50% fib between recent highs and lows and a major SR level so I am watching closely to see if this level holds and the uptrend resumes.

Nicola
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  • #1,013
  • Edited 9:35am Mar 22, 2009 9:34am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting elitejets
USDCHF is the only chart that confuses me. Price broke up and out on the news of the SNB intervention and then fell very hard right through the range, double the amount of the climb. The level she stopped at is the weekly 50, 50% fib between recent highs and lows and a major SR level so I am watching closely to see if this level holds and the uptrend resumes.

Nicola
For what its worth Nicola, i'm long on USDCHF from the 50 % Fib. Discretionary trade based on what i thought/think is a strong PPZ at the 50% Fib/1.1134 level.
  • #1,014
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:55am Mar 22, 2009 9:55am
Quoting elitejets

USDCHF is the only chart that confuses me. Price broke up and out on the news of the SNB intervention and then fell very hard right through the range, double the amount of the climb. The level she stopped at is the weekly 50, 50% fib between recent highs and lows and a major SR level so I am watching closely to see if this level holds and the uptrend resumes.

Nicola
Unless you are a short term trader this one seems like a candidate for a fundamental approach for direction outweighing the technical IMHO.

Who knows what the Central Banks will do next?
History is written by the victors.
  • #1,015
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:46am Mar 22, 2009 10:46am
Well it's certainly taken a good 6 or so hours to go over this entire thread, certainly an entertaining and educational read - thanks Strat for giving us your time and patience. I've especially enjoyed reading the stories about Dr Joe and of the merchant wanker Also thanks for pointing out the discussion between Jacko and James16 as I'd missed it previously.

I understand you've tested and modeled everything under the sun so just curious as to why one exponential moving average and one simple moving average instead of say 2 simple ones or 2 exponential ones? (sorry if the answer lies buried deep here and I overlooked it)
  • #1,016
  • Mar 22, 2009 12:16pm Mar 22, 2009 12:16pm
The ideal 2 day pin has the same lenth noses.the greater the difference the weaker the bar.And the close wants to be in the body of the bar......g
  • #1,017
  • Mar 22, 2009 12:17pm Mar 22, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting Trumpcard
Well it's certainly taken a good 6 or so hours to go over this entire thread, certainly an entertaining and educational read - thanks Strat for giving us your time and patience....
Welcome my old school........g
  • #1,018
  • Mar 22, 2009 1:38pm Mar 22, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting strat
Lance (rogueforex) prompted me to look at USDCAD with that level he posted.

When I look through the time frames, I see a BEARISH emphasis!

Monthly is bearish

Weekly is bearish

Daily is bullish BUT is completely over ridden by the BOSS and HER BOSS!

In this case, I favor shorts
Can you walk me thru this? You have posted bullish analysis on this pair over the last few days, we are sitting on a significant M,W and D SR level and a 50% fib. The powers that be tried to move the price lower but buyers came in and closed the day with a mallet formation (a big headed hammer) and Friday is another day of uncertainty. I think we are setting up to run up and look to resist at the 1.2534 level (another fib and important SR level). Plus the whole thing is an ascending triangle...

Thanks,
Lance
  • #1,019
  • Mar 22, 2009 2:11pm Mar 22, 2009 2:11pm
Thanks for this thread,well i am one of the lurkers here,because i believe if i have to post i have to post sth sensible and reasonable. On the 20 sma i discovered that price interact with it,i.e price moves and retrace to it,if price moves away from it i wait for price to move back to it before taking position. On trading is probabilities,well this is how i sometimes trade it,cos you have a 50-50 chance of success on every trade then trading both ways might be the way out,its risky though but over time you will know good trade from bad ones. On money management,i like to go for atleast risk:reward 1:2 i.e if am lossing one i like to gain 1.5-2% when i get it right,with that i just need to be right 40-50% of the time then am ok. let me give an analogy on how i calculate how many lots to trade,if my guessed stoploss(from analysis) is 100pips and i have a account of say 10000 dollars and am willing to risk 5% which is 500 dollars then i divide 100 by 500 which is 5 dollar/pip then i convert it to lots which is 0.5 lots(5/10(assuming 1 pip = 10dollars)),thareby no matter what am only risking 5%. I am still learning but i like to use purely S&R from the BOSS no trendline then sometimes fibs,and its really being profitable than from the way i trade in the past. I hope somebody will pick sth from this,but the key is know the basics and know yourself,i trade slightly diff from alot of ppl on this thread becos i have discovered what works for me,but the principles are thesame only my methods are different.Thank you Strats and dnt worry abt the good intentioned lurker they will post someday.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #1,020
  • Mar 22, 2009 2:16pm Mar 22, 2009 2:16pm
Quoting Baba G
The ideal 2 day pin has the same lenth noses.the greater the difference the weaker the bar.And the close wants to be in the body of the bar......g
Thanks BG. Appreciate your time.
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