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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #3,241
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:46pm Apr 3, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting hard1head1
Alberto,

Very nice trade, old buddy. I never got my retrace on this one. Ah well, the fortunes of war. But we live to fight another day, with Aussie & CAD. Thanks Pips and Tam for holding MY feet to the fire. Still in the Cad trade after trendline B&T ( Break & Test). Gonna let it retrace and see what it will do, as I owe it that. Also caught the bounce off the T/L and joined u in the U/J. Got my alert set and will watch it closely.

So far this week: 1 Trade -35
1 Trade +42
1 Trade +3
1 Trade +61 ( Still going )

Jim

Jim,

you are doing great!!!!!
  • #3,242
  • Apr 3, 2007 4:52pm Apr 3, 2007 4:52pm
Break and Test didnt last long. Took my 2 pips and ran after a short run and took a quick short off the T/L break & the RT on the 4 & TC on the 1hr.

E 158.48
S/L 158.24
  • #3,243
  • Apr 3, 2007 7:33pm Apr 3, 2007 7:33pm
Confirmed R/T formation on usd/jpy at 0GMT.

After some hesitation (usd/jpy used to show strong upward move when Tokyo market opens at 0GMT), went short.

Short 118.85
s/l 119.15 (5pips above the trendline)
target 118.63 (8EMA)

Target is rather conservative.
I will be happy if I can make up for the loss yesterday.
  • #3,244
  • Apr 3, 2007 7:46pm Apr 3, 2007 7:46pm
Quoting kappa
Confirmed R/T formation on usd/jpy at 0GMT.

After some hesitation (usd/jpy used to show strong upward move when Tokyo market opens at 0GMT), went short.

Short 118.85
s/l 119.15 (5pips above the trendline)
target 118.63 (8EMA)

Target is rather conservative.
I will be happy if I can make up for the loss yesterday.

Great trade!!
I hope.
I got in exactly at 118.85 as well.
I might be looking for a few more pips after a nice move up. I'm looking to TP at the 38.2 fib level which is between the 8 and 21. Also, price seemed to bounce off the top of the TL channel. So far so good.
  • #3,245
  • Apr 4, 2007 2:53am Apr 4, 2007 2:53am
Hi,
even though we talked about this on the thread, I would like to spark some thoughts here.
Originally, we came to conclusion, that it should not matter what time 4H candle starts, as long as one sticks to the same charting. In longer run, it should be equaled out among all 4 possible 4H candle starts (there can be only four different "candle starts").
I was thinking about this, and I am starting to have some doubts about it.
The issue here I think is that it DOES matter when the price action starts. Because that makes the MACD patterns form.
And since it usually starts at London open/NY open, then naturally, waiting for 4H candle to get finished after let's say 3 hours of run after London session started might not be very good idea.
Well, I do not have this "ideas" covered by any research, it's just a thought.
What do you think about this.
  • #3,246
  • Apr 4, 2007 3:24am Apr 4, 2007 3:24am
Lots of signals tonight, which one do you trade? The RB on eur/usd? Or the RT's on usd/chf, usd/cad or usd/jpy??? Even the gbp/usd is starting to give a TC signal with a bounce of the zero MACD line. YeeHaw!!! Pick your horse and ride it to the bank!!!
  • #3,247
  • Apr 4, 2007 3:27am Apr 4, 2007 3:27am
Hi Endy,

Good question regarding chart closing times. I don't think it matters because you will make your decisions based on price action over time on your chart. Your MACD will represent "emotion" during your times. Our opportunities may present them differently...and you may get into a trade that I do not see or at a different time. Since Price Action is first priority...we all have similar Trend lines, chart patterns, fib levels...and the blended candles usually represent similar sentiment (check out the document early in the thread posted by TamKras...it shows the blending and is kind of neat).

I do think some time frames are better than others b/c they close about 1/2 hour after report releases. These charting time frames most likely lead to earlier trading opportunities for "quicker" profit moves and break even targets. My candles close 3.5 hours after the 8:30 EST candles...so I get to see longer term sentiment. This is where I cheat a little and use the hourly to confirm 4 hour directional move.

Interestingly enough, I would have thought each of us would identify different trades at different times. But, it seems that most of us see something that approximates the sell or buy signal at almost the same time/price level (this I don't understand). The most important thing is we follow our own signals and not listen to someone else's plan.

Hope your trading week has so far been profitable!

pips


Any thoughts?
  • #3,248
  • Apr 4, 2007 3:32am Apr 4, 2007 3:32am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Lots of signals tonight, which one do you trade? The RB on eur/usd? Or the RT's on usd/chf, usd/cad or usd/jpy??? Even the gbp/usd is starting to give a TC signal with a bounce of the zero MACD line. YeeHaw!!! Pick your horse and ride it to the bank!!!
Hey Tw0eleven,

I'm not trading any of them! Cable is going to whip (I think) and be unpredictable...until rate decision on Thursday.

Swissie short looked great 4 hours ago...now it's close to TL support...

JPY pairs all look like consolidaton...

Only Euro has important news tonight...and cable will follow it's direction...

(I'm not feeling it, so I'm not trading it)...took a bunch of signals yesterday though and did very well on EurJpy, USDJPY and USDAUD...then got filled w/euphoric arrogance and misread my notes...jumped before a candle close on Cable and gave 66 pips back...so no trades today...not til I backtest 15 trades to get me back on track.)


Didn't help did it?
  • #3,249
  • Apr 4, 2007 3:34am Apr 4, 2007 3:34am
confirmed R/B formation on aud/usd at 8GMT.

went long : 0.8129
s/l : 0.8092
target : 0.8149 (trendline)

R/R is not so good. TP is conservative.

As the price already went above 61.8 fibo, there is no other reliable resistance.

20pips quick profit is quite enough for me.

My usd /jpy short trade reached target with 22 pips profit.
  • #3,250
  • Apr 4, 2007 3:40am Apr 4, 2007 3:40am
Quoting kappa
confirmed R/B formation on aud/usd at 8GMT.

went long : 0.8129
s/l : 0.8092
target : 0.8149 (trendline)

R/R is not so good. TP is conservative.

As the price already went above 61.8 fibo, there is no other reliable resistance.

20pips quick profit is quite enough for me.

My usd /jpy short trade reached target with 22 pips profit.
Nice trades on both of them!

& your usdjpy trade illustrates the difference in time frames...Had I taken the signal (from 12:00 GMT) candle...22 pips would have entailed perfect entry at open and perfect exit at the low of this current candle)!....

Good Job and Nice Trades!
  • #3,251
  • Apr 4, 2007 3:40am Apr 4, 2007 3:40am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hey Tw0eleven,

I'm not trading any of them! Cable is going to whip (I think) and be unpredictable...until rate decision on Thursday.

Swissie short looked great 4 hours ago...now it's close to TL support...

JPY pairs all look like consolidaton...

Only Euro has important news tonight...and cable will follow it's direction...

(I'm not feeling it, so I'm not trading it)...took a bunch of signals yesterday though and did very well on EurJpy, USDJPY and USDAUD...then got filled w/euphoric arrogance and misread my notes...jumped before a candle close on Cable and gave 66 pips back...so no trades today...not til I backtest 15 trades to get me back on track.)


Didn't help did it?
Lots of help! haha Actually, according to your analysis I picked correct because I took a long eur/usd position. Currently up 15pips and have my s/l set at +5pips in case it turns around on me. It's a win-win trade for me now! Sorry to hear about your loss, I've had plenty of those. But your good trades will make up for it!
  • #3,252
  • Apr 4, 2007 3:45am Apr 4, 2007 3:45am
Hi Pips,

very good comment, appreciate it a lot !
I just had to post this thought, because today I compared the 4H on MIG and other broker, who's 4H candles close 1 hour sooner and in this case, MIG would win pretty nicely with EURUSD and USDCHF. The signal candle is very small (hence relatively small SL) and the candle following went very nicely.
Anyway, even though I do not trade 4H that much, just getting it's signals into my whole strategy, I do really like the picture this method gives me when looking at charts.
OK, have a lot good trades Pips and all.

Best regards.

PS: I did ride yen pairs yesterday too, so I am fine so far this week

Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Endy,

Good question regarding chart closing times. I don't think it matters because you will make your decisions based on price action over time on your chart. Your MACD will represent "emotion" during your times. Our opportunities may present them differently...and you may get into a trade that I do not see or at a different time. Since Price Action is first priority...we all have similar Trend lines, chart patterns, fib levels...and the blended candles usually represent similar sentiment (check out the document early in the thread posted by TamKras...it shows the blending and is kind of neat).

I do think some time frames are better than others b/c they close about 1/2 hour after report releases. These charting time frames most likely lead to earlier trading opportunities for "quicker" profit moves and break even targets. My candles close 3.5 hours after the 8:30 EST candles...so I get to see longer term sentiment. This is where I cheat a little and use the hourly to confirm 4 hour directional move.

Interestingly enough, I would have thought each of us would identify different trades at different times. But, it seems that most of us see something that approximates the sell or buy signal at almost the same time/price level (this I don't understand). The most important thing is we follow our own signals and not listen to someone else's plan.

Hope your trading week has so far been profitable!

pips


Any thoughts?
  • #3,253
  • Apr 4, 2007 7:31am Apr 4, 2007 7:31am
Hello everyone,

For the first time trading Forex I'm finally starting to see the light. This method of trading is more stable and has much less stress than watching the 5m candle. Good effort putting this all together!!

My question was does anyone have the knowledge or has modified the FX Sniper Ma to perform email alerts. This would even lessen more involvement with regards to watching the charts all day!!! I found this indicator to be helpful with the 4h charts.

Thanks and I look forward to seeing this thread grow even more with positive results from everyone.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FX Sniper's MA[1].mq4   2 KB | 789 downloads
  • #3,254
  • Apr 4, 2007 8:53am Apr 4, 2007 8:53am
211:

Yes there were a few signals last night. I jumped in early on the 1hr because this was setting up like one of Tam's three sisters on the 4hr. It wasn't a perfect set-up because the ma's were real close like they are now. I think the E$ is looking for some kind of direction right now. I'd be hard pressed to even look for a tc because of the way the ma's are lining up. So, the pips are in the bank from last night, about 30 of them, so there they will stay. I'm on the sidelines until the ma's start to 'widen'...
Attached Image
  • #3,255
  • Apr 4, 2007 8:53am Apr 4, 2007 8:53am
Quoting O'Zeeke
Hi kappa, i think it was our mentor Phillip that said the british pound are notorious stop hunters., i will still trade it(gbp$) but i have a set amount of pips what i am willing to lose and it works out more often than it dosnt so you will still be up some pips. i just have to be more caucious when trading against the overall trend even with a macd signal. good luck to you and your wife with your trading
Hi, O'zeeke

I understand your points.
This is rather a matter of feeling when trading cable.
When cable approches my s/l like tidal waves, I almost lose the balance of mind. Eyes are glued to chart screen even knowing I can do nothing.

Cable must be the last paradise for gamblers.

I am not ready to trade this choppy pair yet.

Thank you for concern.


Good trade ahead !
  • #3,256
  • Apr 4, 2007 8:56am Apr 4, 2007 8:56am
Quoting Palmer
211:

Yes there were a few signals last night. I jumped in early on the 1hr because this was setting up like one of Tam's three sisters on the 4hr. It wasn't a perfect set-up because the ma's were real close like they are now. I think the E$ is looking for some kind of direction right now. I'd be hard pressed to even look for a tc because of the way the ma's are lining up. So, the pips are in the bank from last night, about 30 of them, so there they will stay. I'm on the sidelines until the ma's start to 'widen'...
Nice job Palmer, I was right behind you with 25pips for the bank! Happy trading!
  • #3,257
  • Apr 4, 2007 9:18am Apr 4, 2007 9:18am
Glad I wasn't alone on that ride....waiting on the next train to leave the station right now...
  • #3,258
  • Apr 4, 2007 9:20am Apr 4, 2007 9:20am
Quoting pips4uandme
Nice trades on both of them!

& your usdjpy trade illustrates the difference in time frames...Had I taken the signal (from 12:00 GMT) candle...22 pips would have entailed perfect entry at open and perfect exit at the low of this current candle)!....

Good Job and Nice Trades!
hi, pips

I was quite lucky with this trade. USD/JPY came down to hit my target exactly to go up again.

Last Friday, on the other hand, I was unlucky to see usdjpy spiked down to hit my s/l exactly and went up again to reach my target. Loss of 40pips.

Now we (I am trading with my wife. She is trading with her own account) are more cautious when setting s/l.

My audusd trade made 20pips. Audusd is still going up. Should have taken 2 lots.

We decided to take one lot when countertrend trade, take two lots otherwise from next time.

Good trade ahead !
  • #3,259
  • Apr 4, 2007 9:49am Apr 4, 2007 9:49am
Hey guys, I've been fairly quiet, but wanted to share.

I had a BAD coulple weeks, I tried to implement the 1 hr TC with the 4 hour strategy, and among other things I made it too complicated! Also, I tried to do just two pairs, and tried to get every signal... not working. I was very successful looking at 6 pairs, and only using phillips 4 hour method not including the 1 hour before the bad streak. So, I'm back to it.

I had to wait a day or two to make any trades, but here's what I did.
I simply map out the major trend lines on the eur/usd, gbp/usd, usd/chf, eur/jpy, usd/jpy, nzd/usd, usd/cad, and the gbp/jpy (careful on this one).

After mapping the t/l's I wait until the macd signal comes to me at one of the trend lines. This is what I have found to be HIGHLY successful. It takes a LOT of patience, but can pay off very well. At least one 4 candle must close to show the signal at the tl to take the trade, along with other signals that are there of course. The tl will also help reduce the s/l needed (as long as somewhat watching it).

Results for this week so far (had to wait to take these trades as I said, but they all came last night!):

eur/jpy: 55 pips 1 lot (short)
gbp/jpy: 32 pips 1 lot (short)
usd/chf: 16 1 lot (short)
eur/usd: 27 1 lot, 14 1 lot (long)
usd/jpy: 18 1 lot, 25 and counting second lot (short)

Total: 187+ pips with limited risk in one night.

It's such a relief to find myself back to the original phillip 4 hour method, and have such a simple strategy work.... good pips to all!
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #3,260
  • Apr 4, 2007 9:56am Apr 4, 2007 9:56am
Dire, can you post a chart of good signal with t/l for clarification.

thx
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