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  • #941
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:19pm Mar 20, 2009 10:19pm
Quoting bjohn34
It looks to me like the two trend lines begin at the bottom of a swing on a PA reversal point, pass through the price cross of the 20 which is coming back short and then extend to the BOSS20. When the price touches this trend line near the BOSS20, it reverses.

Is this a predictor of trade exit points?
bj - if this is what happens when you are hung over then do some more serious drinking! This is good!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #942
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:30pm Mar 20, 2009 10:30pm
I see the lurkers have taken over my "close is more important" and "grail" over to J16 and Jacko. Looks like they fell on deaf ears and blind eyes but I don't care anway
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #943
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:31pm Mar 20, 2009 10:31pm
Quoting strat
Attached is a chart of GBPJPY as at 12:25am PST (added for Wheelz)

On it I have drawn 2 trend lines - two very simple straight lines that tell us SO MUCH!

TRADING REALLY IS SIMPLE!

It looks like you draw these trend lines using the weekly close of the down weeks. Or is it the next open? But the Why and What this tells us still escapes me.

Is there a link to tell me how to post charts? Thanks.

Wheelz
  • #944
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:40pm Mar 20, 2009 10:40pm
Quoting 4xWheels
It looks like you draw these trend lines using the weekly close of the down weeks. Or is it the next open? But the Why and What this tells us still escapes me.

Is there a link to tell me how to post charts? Thanks.

Wheelz
No, but we would do it on the Weekly as well

Go to File - Save picture - Active chart (as is)

Save to somewhere you can remember (Desktop)

When you write a post, click the Attachments paper clip and use "Browse" to find the chart where you saved it then click "Upload" and that's it.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #945
  • Edited 10:49pm Mar 20, 2009 10:48pm | Edited 10:49pm
Quoting hansnl

I entered this euro/$ trade on Sunday evening on my Oanda penny account with a nice 150 pip stop.
The main reason for entering was the close of the Friday bar above the boss.

And also a lot of resistance below it all went fine, but do I missing something in this candle set-up??

please comment...
Hans - I was correct - it is you with your SuperSize chart again! Please go in and reduce it so that we can get our standard page format back

Also, what are all those red arrows for? What are they doing? What do they tell you? Why are they there? How do you use them?

I though you said you were indicator free - fooling yourself again!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #946
  • Edited 11:57pm Mar 20, 2009 11:28pm | Edited 11:57pm
On USDCAD Fridays daily bar is an inside bar inside the reversal bar from the day before. Some would say to use the top of the IB as the entry point.

My conservative heart says that the IB confirms the indecision in the market but I would(will) still drop back to use the larger reversal bar for determining entry point for the trade and S/L.

Therefore I will set Buy Stop entry at about 2512, or 10 pips above the high of the reversal bar, which get you above the 2500 psych level. My charts have weekly and monthly S/R not far below the nose of the reversal bar so stop loss will go just below this resistance at about 2150.

I haven't done it yet, but will calculate position size for 2% risk based on this large S/L. If the position size is unreasonably small, I will pass on the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 1.gif Size: 14 KB
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #947
  • Mar 20, 2009 11:48pm Mar 20, 2009 11:48pm
Finally, I have had some peace and quiet to study the trades and charts done by Baba G on pages 50 to 53.

First let me remind you about Baba G:

He was one of Jim's (James 16) first students over 2 years ago and studied and practiced on thousands of charts using the Daily time frame. In that time, he learned to read Price Action like a book. Where we need to use other tools and draw other things, he can immediately "see" Price Action at Support and Resistance JUST BY LOOKING AT THE CHART.

He has trained himself to immediately recognise pin bars (J16 lingo), BUOB, BEOB, DLHC, DHLC and IBs AND what they mean in various positions relative to prices. He used all these in these trades he so kindly put up for us. Maybe there are others I have missed.

In addition to trading his personal account, he also trades and manages accounts for his Clients very successfully as witnessed here.

He is a professional trader in every sense of the word

Not only did he put up his "live" trades, he also, beforehand, gave us his thought and decision making process (Monthly to Weekly to Daily).

To be able to do what he does on the Daily time frame (read Price Action like a book), is what we all on here are striving to accomplish, myself included. I would love more than anything to be able to drop my analytical analysis in favour of just "reading" price action.

He then showed us that, if you read price action like a book, you CAN trade the shorter time frames and squeeze more profit out of the Daily bars.

We are extremely lucky and fortunate that he is part of our group and more so that he posted his "live trades".

I can tell you that he too doesn't give a rats ass what anyone thinks of him or how he trades. Neither is he on here for ego or self adulation.

He is on this thread to show, in his own, inimitable (and sometimes not understandable) style, what he has learned, how to use it and what we need to do to get where he is.

If you have casually skipped or flashed through these pages, I encourage you to go back, pull up your chart of these trades, toggle out to the date and time he traded so that you can just see the first bar (what he saw live) and, using your f12 key, toggle through one bar at a time. Not only that but, pressure yourself that you have $100/pip or whatever, with several contracts on this trade. If you do this, you will appreciate what he has given and is giving us.

Gianni, my personal thanks and deepest appreciation for doing this and helping us on this thread. Please feel free to show us more.

THANK YOU.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #948
  • Mar 21, 2009 12:15am Mar 21, 2009 12:15am
Quoting bjohn34
On USDCAD Fridays daily bar is an inside bar inside the reversal bar from the day before. Some would say to use the top of the IB as the entry point.

My conservative heart says that the...
Shanghai bj, I am pleased for you. You have taken everything in, thought about it and are now applying "common sense" to your trading. Congratulations!

More aggressive traders will buy at a discount price above the high of the IB PROVIDING it is within their risk tolerance.

You have recognised that the IB has not changed anything we had before with regard to support and resistance. You have chosen the safest, lowest risk entry and placed your SL where it should be placed for this type of bar. You have measured the risk against your MM rules and know how much you will LOSE and are prepared to accept that.

My only comment is, no matter how small your position size is, still take the trade because it is then another trading experience under your belt.

Whether you know it or not, you have PLANNED YOUR TRADE.
The next step is TRADE THE PLAN. If you have done this correctly, and are comfortable with LOSING, then your emotions should be in check. You should be able to let this trade ride, whatever the outcome, without interference until the close of the Daily bar on Monday. If you can do this, you are excercising DISCIPLINE.

Good luck, bj
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #949
  • Mar 21, 2009 1:08am Mar 21, 2009 1:08am
Quoting bjohn34
It looks to me like the two trend lines begin at the bottom of a swing on a PA reversal point, pass through the price cross of the 20 which is coming back short and then extend to the BOSS20. When the price touches this trend line near the BOSS20, it reverses.

Is this a predictor of trade exit points?
Everyone pay attention to this post and tell me what it means!

Great Job BJ.
  • #950
  • Edited 1:43am Mar 21, 2009 1:30am | Edited 1:43am
Quoting strat
The next step is TRADE THE PLAN. If you have done this correctly, and are comfortable with LOSING, then your emotions should be in check. You should be able to let this trade ride, whatever the outcome, without interference until the close of the Daily bar on Monday. If you can do this, you are excercising DISCIPLINE.

Good luck, bj
Strat - thanks for the confirmation of my analysis. I am comfortable with the possibility of LOSING. That is much easier to say today than to do tomorrow when/if the trade opens. I have almost decided to enter the Buy Stop in the morning and then go shoot pool all day so I don't look at it.

Let me throw another one at you.

EURUSD - Yesterday bar was IB. Some folks might place a Sell order just below the bottom of the IB with S/L at the top. My chart shows a weekly S/R not far below the IB along with the 200EMA (sorry). Also we are sitting right on the 50 Fib from the last long move down

I am inclined to wait another day(or two) and see what happens . If it significantly clears those resistance points going down, then look for some PA to enter short. I think we will see a significant pull back, but unfortunately me thinking it does not automatically make it happen. Depending on what the three stooges(Odrama, Bernanke, Geithner) do this weekend anything is possible.

I am really liking this approach. I see that I can look at the naked charts and intuitively see what will probably happen and then analytically confirm my intuition and plan what to do. I love this kind of stuff.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd1.gif Size: 17 KB
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #951
  • Mar 21, 2009 1:42am Mar 21, 2009 1:42am
Quoting bjohn34
On USDCAD Fridays daily bar is an inside bar inside the reversal bar from the day before. Some would say to use the top of the IB as the entry point.

My conservative heart says that the...
If you are more conservative you might want to wait for the next candle to close above that last one. This gives more confirmation as a reversal pattern. It is called a Harami candle pattern. I know an excellent trader that trades these very well.
  • #952
  • Mar 21, 2009 2:43am Mar 21, 2009 2:43am
Quoting strat
Remember my quest to accurately track momentum? This is a mechanical way to do it.
Now that is quite interesting...(I was nowhere near getting it by the way).
  • #953
  • Edited 4:37am Mar 21, 2009 4:34am | Edited 4:37am
Quoting bjohn34
Strat -...
This is also for those who sent PMs asking the same question:

But first, for those who just send me a one line PM or Post asking for my opinion, I thought I had made it perfectly clear what my approach is with this thread. I am NOT a signal service, I will NOT spoon feed. Instead, I will say, do and show things to spark creative, common sense and logical thinking to get YOU to put in the time, effort and work. I do not reply to PMs or Posts just asking for my opinion.

However, if YOU put in the effort as bj has here, I will always provide my opinion as long as you remember I also can be as much wrong as I am right.

Right, bj and the others:
Start with the BIG PICTURE - the Monthly - we should all see that we have a confirmed BOTTOM in place. March is making a HIGHER swing low with a very strong BUOB but now at resistance. This is our LONG goods train where the front end is already on the turntable but because it is so long and heavy it takes time to turn this thing around.

Now the BOSS: She is showing us her nice pair of er,.... well it's a "W" bottom (or head and shoulders) with her right one higher than her left telling us she is looking to complete the formation at 1.4050ish. Those three green bars tell us the immediate trend is up but she is a shorter and lighter goods train with the front end off the turntable pulling the rest of the wagons through.

The DAILY: The Daily is our passenger train but we don't really know yet whether it is just a local train or an express train. Which track she leaves out of from this station she is entering will tell us that. We should have all had a nice little ride after waiting so long in that last station and got off to visit friends.

Let's close in on the Daily: We have an IB at a 61.8% fib and monthly resistance. We have accelerating bullish momentum and the IB is a pause bar telling us that some profit taking is taking place. Volume doesn't help us much with it being a Friday (always a low volume day) but still it's not indicative of sellers jumping in. Monday's bar should give us far more clues.

I'm out until price action shows us the way. If they are worth anything, I have all 4 cycles topping here - they've been right before but unfortunately, they've also been wrong!

This agrees with your conclusion to also wait for further price action.

"Odrama" and here's me thinking he really is an Irishman O'Bama!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #954
  • Mar 21, 2009 4:53am Mar 21, 2009 4:53am
Quoting Naws
If you are more conservative you might want to wait for the next candle to close above that last one. This gives more confirmation as a reversal pattern. It is called a Harami candle pattern. I know an excellent trader that trades these very well.
Thanks Naws - can you post some examples for those not knowing the Harami candle pattern?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #955
  • Mar 21, 2009 4:55am Mar 21, 2009 4:55am
Quoting strat
This is also for those who sent PMs asking the same question...
Thanks for your analysis on this pair Strat, I've had another week where it's hard to believe how much more i understand today than i did last Saturday, and so on.

On EUR/USD, 1.3800 is a key level for me. If price can close above this level, i'll be looking for PA to give me an entry.
  • #956
  • Mar 21, 2009 4:57am Mar 21, 2009 4:57am
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...stick_pattern_

A useful link for candle patterns, although not in live chart context.
  • #957
  • Mar 21, 2009 5:37am Mar 21, 2009 5:37am
Strat -

Thanks for all your time and help today. I'll probably throw a couple more up tomorrow.

Right now I'm having a glass of wine and listening to Lowell George pick.
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #958
  • Edited 6:15am Mar 21, 2009 5:57am | Edited 6:15am
Feeling benevolent today as more and more of our group are moving forward in their Price Action education.

So here are my EURGBP charts - if you are putting in the time, effort and work and reading AND understanding, your charts should look something similar (data feed permitting).

Go back and read my post on perfection when you see the hammer.

There is so much price action on there, I'm thinking of asking my one legged blind old man with asthma if he could have followed it.

Don't feel overwhelmed with all the stuff on there (I didn't put everything on there) - remember it's a MARATHON not a sprint. It's much better to learn one piece very thoroughly than trying to flash learn everything.

Have a good week-end
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp mar 20 09 close up.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp mar 20 09 zoomed out.gif Size: 28 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #959
  • Mar 21, 2009 6:28am Mar 21, 2009 6:28am
Im so glad it all helps the cause.

Your right what i have is what has been shown me.Namely by the "Wizard in training" James 16.This man is a living grail.Along side him is the "Medicine Man" Fiji,Whatever "huston" you got he got the cure.Bringing more power to this great council is MBQB11 and his exit stratergy....read it and weep!.I aspire to thier understanding and insight and there sense of giving.

If she is our Queen(market) then he is King(Price Action).Thats what i wanted to show you.Fail to honour the King he will fail to honour you.Only the worthy get a glimmer of the Grail and you are worthy only when your worthy untill that day your errant.

It takes as long as it takes just to understand the bar formations.Then it takes as long as it takes to see the differances in those original bars live.And so it is on each part like learning your A B Cs then verbs,paragraghs,sentances ect.

I aspire to be her perfect knight so at least im not errant and i always honour his word.And il let you into a secret....ive seen her..once or twice.Her beauty is beyond imagination.

Strat your analysis is SPOT ON,and lucky me as my quest gathers momentum and i could do with some back up you arrive on your guitar with a conclave of Squires with grail fever Only through thier own endevour will they prove themselves to her by understanding his commands.

Strenghth in unity is what im saying lets stay sharp,healthy and ready.Lets share our findings...all of us pages,squires,kights,lords and wizards.

And after enough bloody adventures and we have gone to the ends of the Earth and if were worthy we may be rewarded and i prehaps may see her face again.............g
p.s lets get some new balls out here,not to get caught up on former glories.... shizzer i might lose the next one.
  • #960
  • Mar 21, 2009 6:29am Mar 21, 2009 6:29am
Quoting strat
Attached is a chart of GBPJPY as at 12:25am PST (added for Wheelz)

On it I have drawn 2 trend lines - two very simple straight lines that tell us SO MUCH!

TRADING REALLY IS SIMPLE!
This would be my best guess on those 2 tl.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy.gif Size: 21 KB
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