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  • #921
  • Mar 20, 2009 12:58pm Mar 20, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting Naws
Attachment

If price breaks the neckline at 141.70 it could go pretty far
the next resistance I see on the weekly is 148.40 then around 165.40

As for Naws, it is just a random screenname I started using a while ago and stuck with, no real meaning behind it
Naws,

With regards to Strat asking you what your target should be, I'm not sure if he means based on the pattern itself or just S/R. If he means the former, then your generally take the distance between the top of the head and the neckline and extend that out for your TP.

Strat, I'll work on FxPippy's analysis over the weekend. Probably won't be until Sunday that I get something up. Poker game tonight and rebuilding the workstation tomorrow are the order of things for me.

And "sup" is shortened "what's up".
  • #922
  • Mar 20, 2009 12:59pm Mar 20, 2009 12:59pm
Quoting Naws
Attachment

If price breaks the neckline at 141.70 it could go pretty far
the next resistance I see on the weekly is 148.40 then around 165.40

As for Naws, it is just a random screenname I started using a while ago and stuck with, no real meaning behind it
Nice over simplification Uni- man!

The target for a H & S is measured from the distance of the head to the shoulder/neckline and then projected from the shoulder/neckline in the direction of the trend

And I thought everyone's handle had a hidden meaning!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #923
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:08pm Mar 20, 2009 1:08pm
[quote=rogueforex;2618900]For those of you working on this, let me spark a thought... What if you could not see the price after the first circle?[/quote]

I made the comment eariler, if 95% of traders lose money then you have to see things 95% of people don't.

Just like Dr. Joe learned, the traders on the floor were just getting in ahead of the public, that is it. The only way to do this without that first hand knowledge is to look at what will happen not what has already happened.
  • #924
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:10pm Mar 20, 2009 1:10pm
Quoting rogueforex
For those of you working on this, let me spark a thought... What if you could not see the price after the first circle?
I cant help feeling im missing something glaringly obvious, for other people ive remade chart without price after the first circle
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  • #925
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:15pm Mar 20, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting el_duende
I cant help feeling im missing something glaringly obvious, for other people ive remade chart without price after the first circle
Very nice, now what? What are you trying to figure out?
  • #926
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:33pm Mar 20, 2009 1:33pm
RogueForex ...
I like your Jesse Livermore quote. I read a good one today from his book Trading Stocks, written in 1940 ...

"When a speculator can determine the pivotal point and interpret the action at that point, he may make a commitment with the positive assurance of being right from the start ...fast and straight movement almost invariably occured after such points were past"



Have a great weekend everyone.
Nic
  • #927
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:42pm Mar 20, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting elitejets
RogueForex ...
I like your Jesse Livermore quote. I read a good one today from his book Trading Stocks, written in 1940 ...

[left]"When a speculator can determine the pivotal point and interpret the action at that point, he may make a commitment with the positive assurance of being right from the start ...fast and straight movement almost invariably occured after such points were past"[FONT=Trebuchet...
The game never really changes, just all the squiggly lines.

Thanks for a great week Nic.
  • #928
  • Mar 20, 2009 1:57pm Mar 20, 2009 1:57pm
Quoting thegunslinger
Naws,

With regards to Strat asking you what your target should be, I'm not sure if he means based on the pattern itself or just S/R. If he means the former, then your generally take the distance between the top of the head and the neckline and extend that out for your TP.
Thanks, I didn`t know that
  • #929
  • Mar 20, 2009 2:37pm Mar 20, 2009 2:37pm
I look again at this chart

For trendline 1

At the area circled price has come to a critical juncture, we are on the trendline resistance as well as touching the boss 20. At this pivotal point we need to watch the price action around this area to see what the direction is we are to take. In this case the we get a bullish pin bar coupled with boss 20 pointing up we should go long.

Is that better?
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  • #930
  • Edited 5:54pm Mar 20, 2009 2:51pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting el_duende
I look again at this chart

For trendline 1

At the area circled price has come to a critical juncture, we are on the trendline resistance as well as touching the boss 20. At this pivotal point we need to watch the price action around this area to see what the direction is we are to take. In this case the we get a bullish pin bar coupled with boss 20 pointing up we should go long.

Is that better?
Think about it this way. Which came first? Was it that the price crossed the 50MA at the trendline, or the trendline is there because of it. If you understand why the trendline was drawn you will see how it can help you determine what will happen next.

Great job.
  • #931
  • Mar 20, 2009 3:05pm Mar 20, 2009 3:05pm
If we dont look at the candles after the circle it is clear that price found support at the red MA in both instances. It closed right at the MA. Price then broke the MA but an engulfing pattern formed and the price continued on its uptrend in accordance with the trendlines.

Am I getting close

edit: the trendline was draw because price was making higher lows which indicates an uptrend, so it should continue until a lower low is posted
  • #932
  • Mar 20, 2009 3:29pm Mar 20, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting rogueforex
Think about it this way. Which came first? Was it that the price crossed the boss at the trendline, or the trendline is there because of it. If you understand why the trendline was drawn you will see how it can help you determine what will happen next.

Great job.
It appears to be a potential major reversal area. All MA's converging (after downtrend) and HH's & HL's.

Assuming that we need at least 3 CLOSING prices to draw the first trend line, then it couldn't have been drawn till the close of the bullish bar that closed on the weekly 20EMA.

That's the only further observation I can make wrt the trend lines.

But the other thing I noted on the chart was the Average Daily Range Calculator. If you go to the site there is an explanatory video with some interesting concepts about using it. http://www.compassfx.com/adr.htm
  • #933
  • Mar 20, 2009 4:31pm Mar 20, 2009 4:31pm
Hi All, this is my input on the chart.

First chart - price pulls up and breaks the 20, continues through the 50 indicating it could be the beginning of a change in trend. Tests resitance around 1.38. Price pullsback to test the 20 whilst crossing the drawn TL. Can PA push down to continue a downward trend? Bottom of PB touches Fib 61.8 price retracement & bounces off. We've pre-drawn the TL so confluence with Fib, good PA signal we should be confident that price will test the second major resitance level area of 1.41.

Second chart - Price pushes north through 20 & 50, putting the 20 in charge which is acting as support for price, whilst TL acts as resitance. Price again has pulled back a previous support level and a good PA candle hammer with a bit of a wick. Buy above this candle stop below. Follow the trend line on the runaway train north (hopefully) 4th time lucky through the resitance level. need to watch that price action stays above the 50.

have a great weekend...I'm off to have a glass of wine now..cheers all.
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  • #934
  • Mar 20, 2009 4:58pm Mar 20, 2009 4:58pm
I'm still puzzled by the GY chart. I see the TLs and I think that it looks as if the move is weakening for some reason. It looks like the first leg was quite steep, then we had a fall, the second TL was less steep. It's like a 'fan' effect. What this quite means I have yet to learn.

Usually, PA rises very uniformly in a trend, rising incrementally before the final blow off (when Jo Public joins in) only for the smart money to offload their profitable positions to the weak hands - then the move stalls as there is no buying pressure and the smart money moves in again to buy the contracts off the weak hands to sell back short - and so the transfer of wealth continues!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #935
  • Edited 7:49pm Mar 20, 2009 7:48pm | Edited 7:49pm
Hello All,

Thank you for the great thread. I am a forex newbie. I am still reading and learning a lot from your thread, Jacko's and J16. Puzzles like this excite me. Please allow me to give my thoughts. Please ignore this post if I am wrong.

Confluence was created by the crossing of the MA, trendline and price which creates a pivot point which serves as support or resistance.

GG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #936
  • Mar 20, 2009 9:40pm Mar 20, 2009 9:40pm
Quoting reddog19
It appears to be a potential major reversal area. All MA's converging (after downtrend) and HH's & HL's.

Assuming that we need at least 3 CLOSING prices to draw the first trend line, then it couldn't have been drawn till the close of the bullish bar that closed on the weekly 20EMA.

That's the only further observation I can make wrt the trend lines.

But the other thing I noted on the chart was the Average Daily Range Calculator. If you go to the site there is an explanatory video with some interesting concepts about using it. http://www.compassfx.com/adr.htm...
Don't anybody waste their time and money reading or buying. I forgot I had that thing up there - I will now delete it. I bought it because I thought it might have a use in identifying key reversal points but alas it's just a gimmick to get you on their Site where they will push all their other stuff on to you. After proving to myself that it wasn't as good as what I was already doing I ignored it. The last time I used it was to tell someone the average daily range over 2 trading days and I could also have done that with the free MT4 indicator, ATR.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #937
  • Mar 20, 2009 9:59pm Mar 20, 2009 9:59pm
Quoting rogueforex
For those of you working on this, let me spark a thought... What if you could not see the price after the first circle?

It looks to me like the two trend lines begin at the bottom of a swing on a PA reversal point, pass through the price cross of the 20 which is coming back short and then extend to the BOSS20. When the price touches this trend line near the BOSS20, it reverses.

Is this a predictor of trade exit points?
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #938
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:00pm Mar 20, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting Grimweasel
I'm still puzzled by the GY chart. I see the TLs and I think that it looks as if the move is weakening for some reason. It looks like the first leg was quite steep, then we had a fall, the second TL was less steep. It's like a 'fan' effect. What this quite means I have yet to learn.

Usually, PA rises very uniformly in a trend, rising incrementally before the final blow off (when Jo Public joins in) only for the smart money to offload their profitable positions to the weak hands - then the move stalls as there is no buying pressure and the smart...
Good lad, Danny boy!

This is one of the observations I wanted you to find. It's nothing new maybe only the way I think about it.

Remember my quest to accurately track momentum? This is a mechanical way to do it.

On each swing, draw your trend line and observe the angle of the line. As momentum changes, so does the angle.

Enough from me, I have pointed you in the right direction so take it, see what you can make of it and how you would use it in your trading.

Tip - don't just look at current charts - go back and look at thousands of charts and don't waste your time on less than the Daily because the noise "hides" and "distorts" what we are looking for.

Also, for those with more fertile and analytical minds who may think to do it for every two or maybe three bars and then program an indicator for it - don't waste your time and energy - I have already done that and it is no better than the momentum crap already out there.

Have fun!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #939
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:04pm Mar 20, 2009 10:04pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi All, this is my input on the chart.

First chart - price pulls up and breaks the 20, continues through the 50 indicating it could be the beginning of a change in trend. Tests resitance around 1.38. Price pullsback to test the 20 whilst crossing the drawn TL. Can PA push down to continue a downward trend? Bottom of PB touches Fib 61.8 price retracement & bounces off. We've pre-drawn the TL so confluence with Fib, good PA signal we should be confident that price will test the second major resitance level area of 1.41.

Second chart - Price pushes...
Hmm - 5th post in 6 months - are you converting from a lurker to a contributor? If so, come in. Good analysis but that is all it really is. Forget all you have just written, take everything off the chart except those two lines and look at what is left
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #940
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:16pm Mar 20, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting googlygoo
Hello All,

Thank you for the great thread. I am a forex newbie. I am still reading and learning a lot from your thread, Jacko's and J16. Puzzles like this excite me. Please allow me to give my thoughts. Please ignore this post if I am wrong.

Confluence was created by the crossing of the MA, trendline and price which creates a pivot point which serves as support or resistance.

GG
1st post in 6 months - are you converting from a lurker too? If so, welcome to you too!

But first, how did you come up with googlygoo - it sounds like tgs, magic man and pizza man talk!

"'Please ignore this post if I am wrong."" NO, can't do that!

Being wrong is half the lesson in being right!

As long as you post positive and constructive comments, they will never be ignored on this thread

""................which creates a pivot point which serves as support or resistance.""
 Please explain this in more detail
Why would it be a pivot point in the middle of a swing?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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