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  • #881
  • Mar 20, 2009 6:56am Mar 20, 2009 6:56am
Quoting Grimweasel
Nic and I made a pact last night that we will not trade anything below 4hr ever again (until we are uber profitable)
Why, when you become uber profitable, would you choose to throw it all away?
  • #882
  • Mar 20, 2009 7:21am Mar 20, 2009 7:21am
Quoting Bloom
Why, when you become uber profitable, would you choose to throw it all away?
True; I think what I should have said is when I'm totally happy with being able to read PA correctly - and even then there are no certanties in trading, only probable outcomes! So, you are correct Bloom - no more 1hr - ever. Period.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #883
  • Mar 20, 2009 7:54am Mar 20, 2009 7:54am
Sup folks,

Still reading this thread but after the big run up on Wednesday, I decided to take the rest of the week off from trading analysis. I figured that yesterday would be a continuation and not yield any valid entries and today, being a Friday after two days of HUGE gains, will be a slow profit-taking day for the big boys which will hopefully give us some good trade indications for next week.

Loving the analysis you guys are posting here - reading other people's stuff always enlightens you to things you don't see yourself. I'm going to be spending the weekend reformatting my computer and loading up the Windows 7 beta but I'll try and find some time to put in my weekly analysis.

One thing I did see last night on the charts in regards to the U/J - price stopped pretty much on a dime right at the big level 94.60. That was where the train loaded up for the up move towards 98-99 and was, of course, where I hopped on board for part of that journey.
  • #884
  • Mar 20, 2009 8:06am Mar 20, 2009 8:06am
shame nice location USD CAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crap.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #885
  • Mar 20, 2009 8:12am Mar 20, 2009 8:12am
Quoting Baba G
shame nice location USD CAD
I like USDCAD, just not expecting it to move very quickly
  • #886
  • Mar 20, 2009 8:23am Mar 20, 2009 8:23am
cool....i cant make anything out on that cross.

Nothing to get my teeth into.

Heys it the spring equinox.....HAPPY SPRING !!!!!
  • #887
  • Mar 20, 2009 9:27am Mar 20, 2009 9:27am
Quoting strat
Attached is a chart of GBPJPY as at 12:25am PST (added for Wheelz)

On it I have drawn 2 trend lines - two very simple straight lines that tell us SO MUCH!

TRADING REALLY IS SIMPLE!
I see what you are getting at here. It took me an hour but I got it.

Who else?
  • #888
  • Mar 20, 2009 9:45am Mar 20, 2009 9:45am
Quoting strat
Attached is a chart of GBPJPY as at 12:25am PST (added for Wheelz)

On it I have drawn 2 trend lines - two very simple straight lines that tell us SO MUCH!

TRADING REALLY IS SIMPLE!
I am sworn to silence but it is not how I used to draw trendlines and worth a look,
Nic
  • #889
  • Mar 20, 2009 9:46am Mar 20, 2009 9:46am
Quoting strat
Attached is a chart of GBPJPY as at 12:25am PST (added for Wheelz)

On it I have drawn 2 trend lines - two very simple straight lines that tell us SO MUCH!

TRADING REALLY IS SIMPLE!
What I am seeing here is the same effect that occurs with SR lines also happens with trendlines - previous support becomes resistance and vice versa

You can see that after the first trendline broke, the price went up to retest the line and used it as upper resistance. The same happened with the second line, SR and trendlines tend to switch polarity when they are broken.
Another thing I see is that price broke the trendlines at the same point that it broke the MA`s, that might be significant.

Also I`d like to say thanks to rogueforex and strat for your words of advice, Ill take it slow and steady with forex and I am definately planning to finish my degree there is no question about that !
  • #890
  • Edited 10:29am Mar 20, 2009 10:13am | Edited 10:29am
Hi Naws

I am glad you posted that, as that was my observations too about strats post escpecially about trendlines becoming resistance after support.

I also notice something else at area marked 3 on the chart

At this point trendline becomes support (line 1)
Also hits a major resistance (big green line)
Also the daily 20 also acts as resistance (dotted red line)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: start1.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #891
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:41am Mar 20, 2009 10:41am
Quoting el_duende
Hi Naws

I am glad you posted that, as that was my observations too about strats post escpecially about trendlines becoming resistance after support.

I also notice something else at area marked 3 on the chart

At this point trendline becomes support (line 1)
Also hits a major resistance (big green line)
Also the daily 20 also acts as resistance (dotted red line)

Both are very good, but why does he have the circles on the chart? That is the key.
  • #892
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:49am Mar 20, 2009 10:49am
Quoting rogueforex
I see what you are getting at here. It took me an hour but I got it.

Who else?
Lance, you're killing me! You can find in an hour what took me years to find?

Either you are blowing smoke up my tail pipe or you have only half a toe in the water!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #893
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:52am Mar 20, 2009 10:52am
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Strat, on that particular chart i think i can simplify it even more. and look at how price reacted with the BOSS twice before give us an opportunity to trade on the third touch.
Morris Minor - you worry me!

"'Lose the two lines"' - why on earth would I want to do that? These two lines put me where no man has gone before (I think)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #894
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:57am Mar 20, 2009 10:57am
Quoting rogueforex
Both are very good, but why does he have the circles on the chart? That is the key.
Price crosses the MA at the circle, in addition to the trendline
I am pretty new to MA`s so I`m not too sure of how they work but it looks like crossing an MA indicates a change in trend as we can see a change in sentiment from bearish to bullish on the chart
  • #895
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:58am Mar 20, 2009 10:58am
Quoting rogueforex
Both are very good, but why does he have the circles on the chart? That is the key.
I am looking again

Is it at the 2 area circled price breaks the trendlines at exactly the time price hits the boss 20?

Is that the signifiance?

edit boss 20 gives clue as to when the trendline will be broken, at which point trendline becomes resistance rather than support?
  • #896
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:59am Mar 20, 2009 10:59am
Quoting strat
Morris Minor - you worry me!

"'Lose the two lines"' - why on earth would I want to do that? These two lines put me where no man has gone before (I think)
Each to his own i suppose but considering the relationship with the BOSS on that chart, i think they're unnecessary.


  • #897
  • Mar 20, 2009 11:15am Mar 20, 2009 11:15am
Quoting bjohn34
Strat -...
Shanghai bj,

I thought it was clear but obviously not. Without a thought, my SL ALWAYS goes below the low; it's not conservative, it's just a fact of Price Action. I would NEVER, EVER ignore a nearby S & R level. If the low is slightly above support then the SL goes below the support. If there is a psycho number nearby, then it would go below that.

"'I understand that but in this particular case, with the very long tail on the reversal bar, it would seem to me that if it headed that way very far, you would realize that you had guessed wrong and would want to get out of the trade after some point before 300 pips."'
Those bastards who create these long tails, the brokers and the MMs, don't care how long the tail is, they will drive the price to wherever they want to clear everybody out. Go back and study your charts. You should be able to see many, many instances of all types of bars with long, long wicks - the exotics are notorious for long wicks. How many times do you see a tweezer bottom? That is the work of these assholes!

This goes for everyone, you have to get rid of your "little minded trader mentality" because you are the fodder that the predators (brokers, MMs, banks, funds, hedges, institutions, trading houses etc.,) feed off.

Until you think like the King of the Jungle, you will always be the FOOD for the jungle!

If still not clear, you know what to do.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #898
  • Mar 20, 2009 11:21am Mar 20, 2009 11:21am
Hi Everyone - Newbie here, been reading and demo/paper trading for 6 months now. I'm not live trading yet & work fulltime. I'll post when I'm able to do so. I've read James16 to gain understanding/methodology of Price Action. I stubbled across Strat's thread and started reading and I was hooked; I'm so glad i did . So another team member here! So, here is my end of week analysis. Comments welcome..... thanks, Nicole

AUDUSD
BOSS – broken the BOSS 20 at a previous resistance level of 0.6814 large bullish bar. Next BOSS R that I see/read is 0.7004 then 0.7275

Daily – IB forming mid range on FIB 61.8 between BOSS resistance levels of 0.6814 & 0.7004. 20 7 50 crossed to north. Watching for a break of IB north to key levels of 0.7004 and eventually 0.7275. Or a Fib retrace to 50 area for a pullback to north.

CHFJPY –
BOSS – Rejecting R at 86.04 broken through 20, but lurching in no-mans land between 20 & 50.

Daily – broken 20 & 50 & confirmation with BOSS 20; Tail of hammer yesterday & 18th touched 20, heading towards R. Patience and wait for a Price Action for a break north or a bounce south

EURGBP -
BOSS – touched R in area of 0.9500
Daily – 3rd touch in 0.9500 looking for PA for a break towards 0.9700 or bounce back towards 0.9200 & 0.8990
Some uncharted historic territory with regard to S & R.

EURJPY -
BOSS – broken R area of 129.38 and mid range between 20 & 50
Daily – above 20 & 50 waiting for PA break of I have areas 133 & 135, marked up. If trend reverses would be looking for PA. Confluence I see at the moment with Fib at 38.2 and R level.

EURUSD
BOSS – Price has touched the 1.3783 R area and is pulling back to a previous R area of 1.3530. In between 20 & 50 therefore no support from 20 showing and uptrend –no mans land.
Daily – 20 & 50 crossed possible change in trend, have to be patient and wait and see. Looks like Fridays bar will close as an IB between key areas of 1.3530 7 1.3783. To confirm trend change I would be expecting to see a PA candle to break north. Then we could be all the way again to 1.4000 even 1.4700.

GBPCHF
BOSS – In between 20 & 50 wait and see
Daily – a tangled mess with the last 2 daily bars closing south of the 20. Wait and see.

GBPJPY - caught between BOSS 20 and 20 - but looking bearish
BOSS – still in between S & R going sideways. Although PA bounced of Support last week no real action this week – watch and wait for PA.
Daily – 20 supporting train north will watch the new method of drawing trend lines using Support & Resistance to see if it breaks and has confluence with MAs Fibs J (thanks Strat, if I’ve got it right?) and PA to confirm entry north combined with a break of the area 141.34…

GBPUSD
BOSS – under the 20, hit resistance at 1.4554
Daily – PA broken over the 20 & 50, although not crossed yet. has been range bound between 1.45and 1.38 area for a few weeks. It could try a move up to the 1.49. IB forming will be watching for break of 1.45 level.

USDCAD
BOSS – 5th time lucky? Tested 1.3079 area 4 times now. Touched 20 and between resistance areas. If it breaks we could be all the way to 1.35 1.41 (although you have to go back to 2004).

Daily – today’s and yesterdays bars closed south of 50, however a nice hammer touching 1.2200 area. Top of hammer hit Fib 38 level. And last congestion around 61.8% level.

Waiting for a break PA of the hammer.

USDCHF
BOSS – range bound for several weeks between S & R of 1.1134 & 1.1941. 20 was holding it up, however just broken 50 south.
Daily – south of 20 & 50.
Watch and wait.

USDJPY –
BOSS – touch R at 99 area and touched 50, but trapped between 20 & 50.
DAILY – 3 touches at R but indecisive as hovering on 50.
Watch and wait.
  • #899
  • Mar 20, 2009 11:25am Mar 20, 2009 11:25am
Quoting strat
How many times do you see a tweezer bottom? That is the work of these assholes!


I love this thread!
  • #900
  • Edited 9:27pm Mar 20, 2009 11:29am | Edited 9:27pm
Quoting ajhill
Haven't posted for a while, been very busy at the day job....
Tony - trading with only stochastics is NOT trading naked! It is trading with a FLAWED indicator. To use it as an OS and OB indicator is even worse! Have you seen where it is during a trend? Don't get me going on that useless piece of shit!

Also, it sounds like you are trying to follow several people - this is just as bad as trying to follow an indicator. Combining a bit from here and a bit from there will confuse the hell out of you.
I don't care who you choose to follow but pick one, stick with it, learn it and JUST DO IT!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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