Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

The only thing I don't like about the hammer forming on USD/CAD is the small upper wick. Last time I called a candle like that a hammer I was told to do some reading. The hammer portion, or the body part looks a little too big as well, but would still qualify as a long-shadow.

Resistance above is at 1.2520, which coincides with the 50, so I would place an entry order long past that point for one. Once past that level, next resistance to watch for would be 1.2650 area, which is fairly strong. Then look to 1.2750, 1.2900, and then the 1.3000 psycho.

Forming on top of BOSS 20 and 1.2230 support would make this a pretty good setup. At least a B, if you were to rate it like on James16.
AstonDan was pretty right on about the 1.2110 support, stops should be placed below that level.

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/4741/usdcad.gif

hi Strat,
thanks for the encouragment, it makes learning this stuff that little bit easier in a positive enviroment.

I wonder if you might like to elaborate on your statement above, re the accuracy of drawing the s/r lines.
cheers
Geoff

Yup its certainly not ideal and it would have to close up another 40/50 pips for it to qualify.

Can't see the significance of 1.2520 though, except the 50SMA, which is much less important than the 20.

By the way AminAS, my 20's are blue and 50s are red (just to be confusing!)

Cheers
Dan

Only one resistance line on this chart but you can see the FIB lines do a pretty good job of mapping the others.

Strong support off the 38 level although downward pressure seems quite strong and 61 seems to have attracted price for a few months.

Trade idea? Long - stop around 1.1085, target 1.1600.

Strong PPZ around 93.30 which also meets the 50 Fib (confluence).

I like the look of an 'elastic band' long back up to 97.



Or maybe a short, but this 93 area is important

Hi Guys - I have seen threads descend into chaos over the true definition of a hammer and I think people get too finickity over it - you will know when you see a hammer/shooting star because it will stand out like a fox in a chicken shed - you will know because it will be on one of your significant pre-set SR levels. The key is to wait for PA to come into your levels AND then see what the candle tells you.

I went long usdcad off the 1hr hammer this PM - so far up quite a few pips.

It's all about where it forms and how you interpret that info IMO - just don't get into being overly anal about 'ooh it has to be x length and have the body at y length relative to the total length etc' -

Look at the daily USDCAD and the last reach of the triple top (dec time) - now that's a Shooting Star!!

Not a chance - I'm just back from there in Jan - best way into Iraq for investment is via the Oil companies and Mobile Phone providers - just check the AFX news etc for oil company announcements - Shell/Ramco (UK) currently have interests as do many NON coalition countries that have come to reap the rewards of which they have not fought for (China for one!)

Exactly - AND a better opportunity WILL come - don't beat yourself up if you missed a trade - there is one being set up right now - somewhere

I really appreciate the long term emphasis as I too CANNOT watch and sweat out a few trades and then look at the positions I had over the medium / longer term; Can you offer any input on the GBP/CHF ? ( I am thinking its ready for a big move south)

Rather than ask US (US being this growing group of sensible, quality traders on here) - please post YOUR reasonings and we will be more than happy to comment

to be fair strat i think it was aminas this time mate.

Thanks for your thoughts and suggestions, Strat.

Le Pip

Well i just exited my demo trade on this as the chart i used to take the trade signaled a hammer that closed above the level i mentioned before.
I happy to have seen a trade and taken it, and also to have exited with what i see as a price action sign eg candle formation at support level.

cheers
Geoff

AminAS - was it you? And me thinking how good you were getting? Bad boy, now write out one hundred times " I MUST NOT POST OVERSIZE CHARTS ON STRAT'S THREAD!"

My sincere apologies Hans

Thanks for keeping me in check, Geoff!

There are only 3 traders on J16 whose posts I look for and respect and
raczekfx
Pip crawler

is one of them.

He has just posted this and it is something that needs to be on this thread.

Thank you, raczekfx

""I don't know about you, but most traders I know never made any money. This is the sole reason, I don't read posts that say: I'm long, I'm short, I'm..... full of it.
It's just a noise for your brain. Trust me, your brain can be master of its own destruction. I don't remember when was the last time I read someone's journal.

The sooner you find your own way by implementing price action, the sooner you will be...... diapers free

It's sad, but 90% of people posting on FF will never make any real money. New guys, who just started this journey and trade on 1hr or lower are very important for the big guys. They constantly supply them with cash and pay for their toys. After all it's a zero sum game (business)

OK, enough of me here for some time. Trade wisely.""

raczekfx
Pip crawler

US Crude (April and May contracts) and Brent crude have all settled above the very significant $50 level. No sign on the daily charts of a reversal yet either.
The US crude May contract poked its head above the weekly 20 MA but has settled below it (for now).
Crude is priced in US dollars so a weakened dollar has a very strong effect in increasing the price. So despite poor fundamental news (yesterday's EIA report) crude is still soaring. The COT report shows that the commercials are heavily long. Also tomorrow (Friday) is a contract expiry day for US crude which can often be very volatile.
The next major resistance for US crude is $55, Brent around $54.40.

I would only be tempted to short crude if there was price action to indicate it, the dollar was showing signs of strengthening and there was a reversal of the recent rally in the equity markets. Until then the train is still northbound.

Nicola

As we all get to know each other, open ourselves up to Strat's "I don't give a rats ASS what you think", and create a little family here I thought I would explain a little about myself and give those who are still finding their way a little hope.

It's interesting how this comes full circle. Strangely enough when I was 22 years old I received a booklet in the mail from Ken Roberts; it was basically about channel breakouts, head and shoulders, and double tops, you know, really basic stuff that gets the average civilian excited about trading because "I can see it too, I can really make tons of money doing that?". I don't think I even bought anything from Ken, I just got excited about trading and started spending my college study time studying the markets. This was in 1994 and the Inet wasn't up yet so it was everyday at the library with any book I could read about trading and the manual chart book that the library subscribed to. I was so excited every Monday because the new chart book was in and I could update all my stuff. I read a book called "Success in commodities, the congestion phase system" by Nofri; it was basically an end of day system that had mapped PA while a commodity was in a sideways channel. So I charted my closes, that's all that was taken into consideration, and I called my broker each day 10 minutes before the close to place my order or close my position. I traded like that for quite a while, for being 22 I knew it all. No indicators, no money management, just plotted the close and made the call.

Life happened when I finished college and trading was less important, I followed it but I stopped actively trading. It wasn't until 2006 when I started to read about FX that I got the bug back. My career was going and I was bored with what I was (am) doing and that's when I jumped back in.

This time was different; no simple system, no plot the close and make the call, there was information everywhere, more indicators, systems and experts than anyone would ever need and I was Hell bent on learning it all. Luckily I had slain the "typical" first 45 deadly errors a new trader normally makes. Over trading, over positioning, letting losses run, etc... I say slain but that isn't ever really true, they are always there; I guess I should say repress for the most part. So I have been able to make money trading, at least on balance; I didn't implode, but I didn't make any real money either. That leads us to the last six months where I have really started "thinking" and started to realize that I got into trading for (1), I absolutely love the mental problem solving and (2), the lifestyle of a successful trader; and staring at my PC for 12 hours a day looking at the fifteens was not really what I had in mind when I thought about quality of life and time for my family. Luckily I make a very good living as the GM of three dealerships in Oregon so trading hasn't had to support anything financially. I have the ability to learn in the correct mindset, with out worrying about the water bill and the next trade to pay for it.

This realization, that the long term viability of my success depended on my learning the "big picture" led me to J16 and then by chance here. I agree with the statement from Livermore about the big money being in the big moves and not "piking" for the small fluctuations. Not only the big money, but the big lifestyle as well.

Anyway, sorry for the diatribe, but I wanted you to have a little insight into my motivations. It's not to be the great marketeer of wonderful trading ideas, or to be the FF posting savant. It is to be a truly successful, consistent professional trader. And to be able to sit on a beach somewhere surrounded by beautiful girls; or my wife and kids, whichever would be willing.

I hope the same for you...

...are you smoking something? LOL. Is it that obvious? And this from a guy who entirely missed the drug part of the sixties? BTW, it is said that if you can remember the sixties then you weren't there.

Back to forex. The time frame I refer to above is the 20+ years. (I love Daily trading.) I guess I assumed that Support and Resistance are there because of some handful of fundamental reasons and not because they are some kind of voodoo number.

Haven't fundamentals changed radically in the past 20+ years? So why the same S and R? That was my question but perhaps it doesn't even matter. Maybe this is something that just IS and I should accept it, indeed embrace it? One of those amazing but true stories.

Keep them coming.

Wheelz

Thank you, Lance.

I'm getting a real good feeling that Lance typifies the quality, common sense trader we have on here (with the exception of maybe me and Baba G! - just joking!).

I toyed with the idea of this thread for a long time (as Nicola knows) and what kept putting me off was having to read posts from lurkers, wannabes, and newbies trading M5, M15 etc., as you see on so many other threads. I suffer fools and idiots badly - I have no time for them in my life. I hoped that restricting it to MY time frame - the Daily and UP would keep most of them away which it has, for the most part.

We still have the lurkers, pretenders and wannabes visiting and posting their usual "approval and confirmation" posts of what we're doing here WITHOUT any positive or constructive comments but as long as we ignore them and don't feed their egos they will go forth and multiply.

I was also asked many times, to follow the route of other successful traders on FF and start Private Groups with paid subscriptions. Yes, I did consider it but then asked my "WHY" question. I set this thread up to help others achieve what I have - successful and profitable trading WITHOUT going through the hell and hundreds of thousands of lost dollars.

As far as I'm concerned, THIS thread is MY PRIVATE GROUP. Those that know me know that I am not on an ego trip - I don't have any and dislike those that do. I'm not looking for the highest numbers of visitors on FF or competing with J16 or even care about it. What I care about is those guys that are drowning in the sea of forex and looking for a life raft.

Many people on here know that what I and others have openly shown, is what people pay $thousands for in subscriptions to groups, services etc., for, and then STILL ,do not give them what they get on here. I am a suspicious person by nature and can't help wondering why supposedly successful traders charge fees and subscriptions.

Just realised I've climbed on a soap box again so I have quickly jumped off.

If you are still reading this, I encourage you to open up, like Lance did, and become part of the "family". There is more to life than making money off dancing price bars and, Balance in our lives is so important.

Good observation, Queen of Darkness. Don't forget that we previously had higher lows earlier on the Daily that didn't make any difference to the trend.

Until her BOSS changes trend, the Daily will continue as she is. The BOSS is showing signs that she may be going through the change.