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  • #701
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:57pm Mar 18, 2009 9:57pm
What i like about correlation is when it happens naturaly in price action.
So if im selling gbp/swiis and i get bearish action on usd/swiss and cable then its cool.
Other than that fugayzy,a bars a bar and a charts a chart.
Like they say"say what you see" or play what you see" in our case.
  • #702
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:01pm Mar 18, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting reddog19
I've re-read as suggested.

My problem is that many of my charts appear to have too many weekly S/R zones.



When I noticed your chart with weekly and daily coinciding S/R.....

Back to the bottom of the learning curve!
If you are following the way I do it, I don't use zones. I use specific price levels - sure there may be and are several levels around the same price but they mean more to me than a zone.

Have another go with your Weekly S&R but try to identify the swings and, when you have identified a line, scroll back to see how many times price reacted to it. If there are very few reactions to it, then it is a low incidence line and may never come into a play again until Big Ears is King. then you know what to do with it - right?

Don't worry about going back - this is all part of the learning curve for which there is no substitute.

Keep working at it reddog19, you'll get there!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #703
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:12pm Mar 18, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Hi Strat,
Ref the chart you posted earlier with all the 'mess' on it (Japanese Clouds I seem to recall), all I see is a aircraft wiring diagram!! You need a degree in Advanced Maths and Physics to fathom it and all it does is (more than likley) give you conflicting HISTORICAL data. In the military 'smoke' (ie clouds) are used to cover a retreat or move in a battle - all that cloud does is cover the PA ....why make things so hard hey??

I'm thinking that Fibs and SR should be drawn from closing prices. The wicks on candles etc just show where price...
More disappointment! Only a few of you interested in anything on here unless it's an entry or exit - typical!

If I was asked my comments on something - the first thing I would do is study and read up on it until I knew all about it - only then would I feel qualified to comment. It's so easy to find out information these days - a far cry from when I was trying to find out (OK, get the violin out!)

This is not aimed at you specifically Grim, so don't take offence.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #704
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:25pm Mar 18, 2009 10:25pm
I hate to admit it, but I also have one more MA on my charts, 200EMA. A habit from the past.

After last nights move, EURUSD is bouncing off the 200EMA on both Weekly and Daily charts which also nearly confludes ( a verb I just invented) with the 50 FIB of the long move down from Jan.

Will be interesting to see which way it goes. If it breaks through the 200EMA, next stop BOSS 50 at about 3750 and after that 4000.

Nothing to do but watch and wait.

I would love to hear other opinions.

Strat - I am just guessing but EPL is either 1) Exponential Phonetic Linguistics, or 2) a bunch of Brits in shorts running around kicking a little ball in the presence of a crowd of drunk, screaming hooligans.
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #705
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:42pm Mar 18, 2009 10:42pm
"really thought I had found The Holy Grail (This isn't it, but I know what is)"
Strat, i have seen you type this several times on your thread, everytime i see it i just want to ask you "what is it" but then i say to myself, dont ask that, you will look stupid lol, but what the hell, What is it, if i have missed you interpretation of the meaning of the holy grail according to Strat, i appologise again, thats twice in one day, but if it hasn't been asked i would love to hear your version, I am sure it is a whole lot of things, for mine it would be an attitude thing, being cool, hip, down, how ever you want to say it, with your method, your approach to trading, accepting you cant tell the market where to go, well you can but...., i guess just being confident and comfortable with YOUR way of doing things.
Maybe i am full of sh#t maybe not.

cheers
geoff
  • #706
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:13pm Mar 18, 2009 11:13pm
The interesting thing is, I used the chart you posted on 3/10 of the U/J to figure it out. In that chart you have marked 95.534 as a support level; low and behold the bottom falls out of the $ today and the U/J slams right into that level and stops. You picked the spot a week ago. Not bad.[/quote]

Thanks for bringing this to everyone's attention. At least I know that you and Nicola are reading and learning this stuff.

One week ago is nothing. If you remember, on the USDJPY chart, I had S&R levels on there from 1994 or 5. On the latest GBPUSD chart, there are levels on there from 1984.

Now, turn this around, and, as you have so astutely recognised, I can tell you with 100% certainty (yes you read it right 100% ) that the price at 1.9711 will act as support and resistance at some point in the future. Now don't anyone ask me when, because I have absolutely no clue. If I did, I would be on a private island surrounded by lots of beautiful girls instead of typing on here!

You are getting close, Lance, keep working at it and you will get there.

For those of you just waiting for me to show you how it's done - just keep waiting and waiting and waiting and then wait some more......... For those putting in the time and effort, as I had to do to work it out, keep at it and you will get there.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #707
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:19pm Mar 18, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting rogueforex
Done
Thanks Lance, you really are a Wiz with that stuff - we are lucky to have you on here!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #708
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:24pm Mar 18, 2009 11:24pm
Quoting geoffrod
how powerful these level of s/r can be and are
amazing
the charts attached are the aud/usd, now it may go higher yet, but it just amazes me how these levels continue to work, round numbers!!!!!

cheers
Geoff
And, they can be drawn much more accurate than you are showing! Nevertheless, great job at getting this far, geoff.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #709
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:25pm Mar 18, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting geoffrod
"really thought I had found The Holy Grail (This isn't it, but I know what is)"
Strat, i have seen you type this several times on your thread, everytime i see it i just want to ask you "what is it" but then i say to myself, dont ask that, you will look stupid lol, but what the hell, What is it, if i have missed you interpretation of the meaning of the holy grail according to Strat, i appologise again, thats twice in one day, but if it hasn't been asked i would love to hear your version, I am sure it is a whole lot of things,...
To be honest I dont think there is a holy grail! I currently work on the rates and currencies desk at my work trading global macro instruments, and alot of the traders here including me use the same indicators available to every retail trader. (albeit with some minor differencesdue to customisation per each trader)

The best thing which is close to the holy grail would be to have good judgement and having faith in your trade. But not only having faith in your trade but trusting your system when you have a drawdown.

If you are having issues with your trading, try taking a step back and look at the longer time frames. Put a trade on the daily time frame, and come back at the end of the day and move your limit/stop accordingly.

I hope this helps
  • #710
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:34pm Mar 18, 2009 11:34pm
Quoting 4xWheels
GBPUSD Support & Resistance INTO THE FUTURE

"Some of these levels were known in 1984."

I am struggling with how far back to look for S and R. And I'm especially having trouble with this time frame. A dollar today is not nearly the same thing it was 20 years ago. So why should there be a straight line relationship with levels from 1984?

Wheelz
"I am struggling with how far back to look for S and R." You go back as far as you have to, to identify the correct support and resistance levels

"So why should there be a straight line relationship with levels from 1984?" -.....8,........9,..........10, BECAUSE IT'S SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE!

"A dollar today is not nearly the same thing it was 20 years ago." What the hell has this to do with trading the current chart on your computer screen?

"And I'm especially having trouble with this time frame." You mean the Daily? Next to the Weekly, the Daily is by far the best time frame to trade!

Wheelz - are you smoking something?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #711
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:41pm Mar 18, 2009 11:41pm
Quoting bjohn34
Nicola -

thanks for this tip. Makes good sense and certainly cleans things up.
There's more to it than that, but keep going, you're headed in the right direction
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #712
  • Mar 19, 2009 12:03am Mar 19, 2009 12:03am
Hi Strat,

Great thread! I've been following since the beginning, but until I get my "sea legs" am unable to really contribute or comment intelligently, other than asking a few questions.

I've been "trading" (if you can call it that) forex for almost 3 years -- often times full time including study... with not much success. One thing that's absolutely clear to me is that being able to read s/r and pa is key. And if I've learned anything, what a relief it is to clear all those indicators off the charts! Having said that, I still find myself zigging when I should have zagged....

I would much appreciate your clarification on some of your recent posts:

I am not sure what to make of your recent GU chart with monthly, weekly, daily levels, other to know they are there. Referring to the chart where you ask what we make of it.

I don't understand the "northbound train," relative to how to apply it to a chart. Given that any one bar (when it hits a resistance area - north) could be a reversal bar, I just don't understand what you're talking about. you're saying it *will* go north? Or, it won't go north? Or if it is?

You recently said (in pair updates) that GU is resuming trend.... back down? What brought you to that conclusion? And, as of this writing, FOMC has happened. So perhaps you've changed your thought on that, but I'm still curious as to how you had thought it would go down.

Bond.... okay, he was duped. So be more discerning. But I'm not getting "how" to read the charts like tea leaves.

Don't mean to be so dumb, but since there's only two ways (long/short), at any one point, are you saying that you only trade reversals at s/r? And then, how?

I could ask many more specifics, but this should give you an idea.

Again, your clarifications and comments are most appreciated.

Many thanks,
Le Pip
  • #713
  • Mar 19, 2009 12:11am Mar 19, 2009 12:11am
Quoting bjohn34
I hate to admit it, but I also have one more MA on my charts, 200EMA. A habit from the past.

After last nights move, EURUSD is bouncing off the 200EMA on both Weekly and Daily charts which also nearly confludes ( a verb I just invented) with the 50 FIB of the long move down from Jan.

Will be interesting to see which way it goes. If it breaks through the 200EMA, next stop BOSS 50 at about 3750 and after that 4000.

Nothing to do but watch and wait.

I would love to hear other opinions.

Strat -...
Shanghai bj, I used to have both the 100 and 200 emas on my charts only because they are used by banks, funds and large institutions. I took them off 1) because of clutter, 2) because they always coincided with support and resistance BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, I found I was leaning on them like a crutch which was taking me away from watching price action.

But if it works for you then méi wèn tí

EPL - now you've got me going! Right - daggers drawn!

At least they are fit, skillfull athletes where midfielders run about 8 to 9 miles during a non stop action, 90 minute football game.

Compare that to a bunch of steroid using wankers dressed in tights and armour attempting to play a pathetic substitute for rugby in a game that lasts 41/2 hours with only about 20 minutes real playing time that has two teams per team because neither are talented enough to do double duties who need oxygen and a rest if they run the length of their field, in the presence of a crowd of drunk, screaming hooligans in both the stadium AND the parking lot!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #714
  • Mar 19, 2009 12:19am Mar 19, 2009 12:19am
Quoting geoffrod
"really thought I had found The Holy Grail (This isn't it, but I know what is)"
Strat, i have seen you type this several times on your thread, everytime i see it i just want to ask you "what is it" but then i say to myself, dont ask that, you will look stupid lol, but what the hell, What is it, if i have missed you interpretation of the meaning of the holy grail according to Strat, i appologise again, thats twice in one day, but if it hasn't been asked i would love to hear your version, I am sure it is a whole lot of things,...
THANK YOU, GEOFF, I was wondering how many times I had to write that before someone picked up on it. Be proud that you stood out in a bunch of sheep and asked!

Those who know me from the other threads know the answer, but I will tell you the secret again here, but ssshh, don't tell anyone else - promise?

Go and stand in front of a mirror and you will see The Holy Grail staring back at you!

I'm not joking either - I'm dead serious!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #715
  • Mar 19, 2009 12:23am Mar 19, 2009 12:23am
Quoting kokolaymm
To be honest I dont think there is a holy grail! I currently work on the rates and currencies desk at my work trading global macro instruments, and alot of the traders here including me use the same indicators available to every retail trader. (albeit with some minor differencesdue to customisation per each trader)

The best thing which is close to the holy grail would be to have good judgement and having faith in your trade. But not only having faith in your trade but trusting your system when you have a drawdown.

If you are having issues with...
Yes it does and thank you for visiting and posting your comments
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #716
  • Mar 19, 2009 12:40am Mar 19, 2009 12:40am
Quoting strat
Shanghai bj, I used to have both the 100 and 200 emas on my charts only because they are used by banks, funds and large institutions. I took them off 1) because of clutter, 2) because they always coincided with support and resistance BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, I found I was leaning on them like a crutch which was taking me away from watching price action.

But if it works for you then méi wèn tí

EPL - now you've got me going! Right - daggers drawn!

At least they are fit, skillfull athletes where midfielders run about 8 to 9 miles during a non stop...
Price Action is something I am learning to use in addition to S/R. I find that waiting for a PA signal is keeping me out of bad trades much more than before.

I started trading forex about four years ago but had a two year interruption because I took a job as GM of a factory in Shanghai. That was over last fall so I am back re educating myself and trading again.

Having been in Asia so long, American football is pretty much out of my system. One good thing about football (your) is that the drunk wankers watching it can keep score using only one hand, leaving the other hand free to do what wankers do.
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #717
  • Mar 19, 2009 1:43am Mar 19, 2009 1:43am
Quoting strat
Another method I tried, used and dropped.

Anyone see any use in it?

I know, sounds like a Starbucks special!

Nicola and AstonDan - you are DISQUALIFIED from answering!
Apparently an "all in one indicator" popular in many Japanese trading rooms.

The Tenkan and Kijun are similar to a 20 and 50 weighted MA crossover system.

The Kumo (clouded area between Span A and Span B) acts as support and resistance.

If price is above the cloud we are bullish and if below bearish.

The cloud width is supposed to be a measure of volitility. The wider the kumo the harder it is to break through to change the trend.

When you plot the indicator it is surprising how many times price appears to respect it.

I'm wondering if the mathematical basis behind it is connected to Strat's
"exact" numbers?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ichimoku.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #718
  • Mar 19, 2009 2:03am Mar 19, 2009 2:03am
Quoting reddog19
Apparently an "all in one indicator" popular in many Japanese trading rooms.

The Tenkan and Kijun are similar to a 20 and 50 weighted MA crossover system.

The Kumo (clouded area between Span A and Span B) acts as support and resistance.

If price is above the cloud we are bullish and if below bearish.

The cloud width is supposed to be a measure of volitility. The wider the kumo the harder it is to break through to change the trend.

When you plot the indicator it is surprising how many times price appears to respect it.

I'm wondering...
Keep looking reddog19 - it's staring you in the face!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #719
  • Mar 19, 2009 2:33am Mar 19, 2009 2:33am
Quoting LePip
Hi Strat,

Great thread! I've been following since the beginning, but until I get my "sea legs" am unable to really contribute or comment intelligently, other than asking a few questions.

[i]I've been "trading" (if you can call it that) forex for almost 3 years -- often times full time including study... with not much success. One thing that's absolutely clear to me is that being able to read s/r and pa is key. And if I've learned anything, what a relief it is to clear all those indicators off the charts! Having said that, I...
I am glad you posted this, Le Pip because I know there are many like you with the same concerns out there.

"One thing that's absolutely clear to me is that being able to read s/r and pa is key. And if I've learned anything, what a relief it is to clear all those indicators off the charts! "

Well to get this far, you are over the biggest hurdle that many cannot even see over. Keep studying and practicing and looking at charts

The GBPUSD with most of the S & R levels on it was posted there to stimulate the thinking process. If you can't see yet what it is telling you then go back to page 1 of the J16 thread and keep reading over and over until you see it.

The train analogy that I just threw on there without thinking about it will become more and more evident as the posts go on. Think of a train as your trend - get on board before the train leaves the station, keep getting on and off as it pulls into a station and get off when it reaches it's destination BEFORE it gets on the turntable to turn around and go in the opposite direction.

GBPUSD BOSS and Daily are in a downtrend. The Daily retrace was lining up to resume the downtrend (go back down) - Despite the news, it didn't like going up and is banging his head on resistance so it is likely to resume the trend again

"But I'm not getting "how" to read the charts like tea leaves." Neither can I or anyone else - we can only give it our best shot but it takes hours, days, weeks, months and years of practice reading the charts.

are you saying that you only trade reversals at s/r? And then, how?
Trading is all about Probability - you have as much chance to get it right as to get it wrong. It has been proven that a coin toss with good money management wins every time. We want to lower our risk and get all the odds on our side.
We study what price does at support and resistance and yes, price reversal is part of that but there is much more.

Le Pip it looks to me like you are getting caught up in the frenzy of experienced traders posting their observations which is overwhelming you BECAUSE you don't understand price action at support and resistance. You are trying to run before you can even crawl. You will have heard this many times but it is true - this is a MARATHON not a sprint.

Take your time, don't be so anxious to get to the finish line before you have even entered the stadium. The market will still be here WHEN you are fully trained and ready to go.

I think you need to start at the very beginning with price action so go to Price Action in the INDEX and start reading there and doing what it says.

I know this is not the answer you are looking for but there is no substitute for doing what needs to be done.

Just remember - Determination and perseverance will get you there
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #720
  • Mar 19, 2009 2:48am Mar 19, 2009 2:48am
This train analogy that I just casually threw out is becoming more and more powerful each time I think of it:

Here is where I am at with it so far:

Think of a train as your trend - get on board before the train leaves the station, keep getting on and off with more and more friends at each station en route, then all get off for good when it reaches it's destination BEFORE it gets on the turntable to turn around and go in the opposite direction.

Lance - please can you put this in the Index. Thanks.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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