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  • #461
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:35am Mar 18, 2009 9:35am
letīs see what happen.. on the 1. support (1,3107)
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #462
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:50am Mar 18, 2009 9:50am
Btw... there's a QP right at the psych xx20 level as well. It'll hold or it won't.

Left a few on the table on the 3160 TP, but got out close enough as don't matter, and waiting for a reload signal. Other than that it's just another "manage the trades" day, using the charts I posted last night.

I did see that my SL for drama got hit elsewhere... So I'll be easier to find for awhile.

((Back in at 3120ish and checking out until this afternoon))
FUBAR...
  • #463
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:13am Mar 18, 2009 10:13am
Remember... tomorrow is a "Cluster Day"
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #464
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:38am Mar 18, 2009 10:38am

Guys,
if we maintain this level (1.Target area of H&S..see the previous posted chart), we created the conditions to go up to 3221

The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #465
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:30pm Mar 18, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting Driver55

Guys,
if we maintain this level (1.Target area of H&S..see the previous posted chart), we created the conditions to go up to 3221

I fully agree Driver, will post a double chart with a correction on my earlier posted chart in EUR/USD thread, where I posted a 1.307 FAIL scenario..

We have breached import resistance and I had to revise my predictions based upon

I feel this thread carries a lot more weight, experience & insight then other EUR/USD threads and I will try to contribute in a valuable way.

Thanks for setting up this one ak4x, great job...

As always, just my 2 cents...
  • #466
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:54pm Mar 18, 2009 12:54pm
As promised, my charts and opinion about the current situation...

I did not expect 1.307 to break...however since it has we are heading into new territory IMO.

On the 4h chart I still have a strong bearish signal, but since we have broken the 38.2 fib fan on the daily a retrace till 1.29795 still remains bullish territory..
On the daily 1.334 is my next target, near the 38.2 fib

Colored numbers are major support & resistance areas based upon Gann calculations.

IMO:

Resistance @ 1.31603
Possible retrace to 1.29795 before breaching the above

Breach below brings us back into bearish territory, breach above sets confirmation for T1@ 1.334

My only hesitation for a continuation for the bull-run is that underlying fundamentals do not fully support it, however risk aversion does..and as long as that scenario is in place...the current risk aversion trend prevails.

As always...just my 2 cents...
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  • #467
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:55pm Mar 18, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting Shadowfx
... I had to revise my predictions based upon...

and I will try to contribute in a valuable way.

Thanks for setting up this one ak4x, great job...
To the First... Six words that should be in ALL of our vocabularies..

To the Second... That's what it's about

To the Third... That part is up to all of us...

With FOMC getting out of the way in the next half hour... I'm hoping for a little more mid to long term clarity by the end of Thursday, "the New Friday" as acumen called it.

Altho we 've broken out of my arbitrary "Range" box, we've actually only re-eentered what was my arbitrary "Consolidation" box on the way down.

Refer to an old post chart here --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2592572#post2592572

That may work the same way on the way back up ((to some degree)) as the Bull/Bear tussle gets into high gear. In the back of my mind tho is always that "Push it up to slam it back down" whisper... It does get onerous at times. Still at the end of any given day lately... Look where we are!!

Methinks there's a Clue in there somewhere.
FUBAR...
  • #468
  • Mar 18, 2009 1:39pm Mar 18, 2009 1:39pm
I'm off to do what the Market will do shortly... locking up the profits and digesting the move. Shazamm!!

It was a Good Day.

Careful trading the aftermath guys... I'm outa here for awhile. I have no opinion at all about anything except what flavor of ice cream to get.
FUBAR...
  • #469
  • Mar 18, 2009 2:47pm Mar 18, 2009 2:47pm
He he, I've been away from the desk for about 4 hours. Imagine my whopping surprise when I come back and see a 240 pip M15 candle - and 1.freakin'3457! I see no one decided to reply to my post today. I'm committed, and will thus work to continue to improve my analysis. Hope to earn some replies in the future. This is tough work and I'm thick skinned. I don't mind if you tell me where I'm wrong.

Hope everyone survived this ok today and made a lot of PIPs. I was on the sideline most of the day and am therefore reading my daily "what I see" to determine what I did not see.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #470
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:18pm Mar 18, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting SpecialEd
...am therefore reading my daily "what I see" to determine what I did not see.
Well, before you get too hard on yourself, it was an extraordinary hour... I'd write it off to experience either way...

Personally, I'm just looking to identify the more important S/R zones at this point, ala Clockwork style . Things are so skewed right now, I'd hesitate to try to get too specific here tfn... The fallout from this could easily last the rest of the week imo, and that's when I'll re-evaluate.

Brain Strain can do one in...
FUBAR...
  • #471
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:22pm Mar 18, 2009 3:22pm
Quoting ak4x
Well, before you get too hard on yourself, it was an extraordianry hour... I'd write it off to experience either way...

Personally, I'm just looking to identify the more important S/R zones at this point, ala Clockwork style . Things are so skewed right now, I'd hesitate to try to get too specific here tfn... The fallout from this could easily last the rest of the week imo, and that's when I'll re-evaluate.

Brain Strain can do one in...
Yeah, I know. Last time we got one of these moves, I got burned. This time it paid to be on sideline if you didn't know what you were doing, unless you got lucky with a "let it run" long, which I'm sure a lot of folks did. That would be very cool trade.

I just checked a stat. Today's 500+ PIP range is 5th longest in the past year, or at least since when I started, end of last April. Phenomenal. Can't explain, but hope I get better at profiting from such.

Best to ya,
Ed
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #472
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:25pm Mar 18, 2009 3:25pm
Hey dwildes... see you down there lurking. I added you to buddy list so you can join in. Chime in whenever...
FUBAR...
  • #473
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:26pm Mar 18, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting SpecialEd
Hope everyone survived this ok today and made a lot of PIPs. I was on the sideline most of the day and am therefore reading my daily "what I see" to determine what I did not see.
Only thing I'm looking at is stuff I have tested on long time periods. And when this kind of breakout happens, it usually means quite good expectancy on next day. For me it's quite hard to comment on other peoples analysis - I think it all goes back how everyone trades.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2608141&postcount=434

anyways, this was a freak day so nobody could have expected the spike up - only thing I always want to know is that I have trades with max losses I can handle Then it's easy to let your trades be open even for FOMC statement.

By the way, two days ago I finally moved all my trading totally automated so the next few months are going to be very interesting.
  • #474
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:27pm Mar 18, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting ak4x
Hey dwildes... see you down there lurking. I added you to buddy list so you can join in. Chime in whenever...
busted *haha*
  • #475
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:27pm Mar 18, 2009 3:27pm
{Bemac checks}
  • #476
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:36pm Mar 18, 2009 3:36pm
Quoting Bemac
{Bemac checks}
... yes I think we all still have our knickers... at least I haven't seen anybody running a'rd bara$$ed yet...

...and no you did NOT get any of my pips for once.
FUBAR...
  • #477
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:34pm Mar 18, 2009 5:34pm
Everyone please take a minute to check Post #1... I've condensed the Intro post as some things have become irrelevant, and added some comments in Bold Blue to bring things up to date with some minor changes.

One thing... as much as I had hoped to lower the Vouch Limit by now, I'm very committed to keeping the integrity of the thread intact, and so will keep it in place for the time being.

If that excludes you, my PM is open, and if your backposts and perspective on things is in keeping with what we're doing here... shoot me a line and let me consider it. I don't mind a little extra homework now and then... it goes with the territory.

The mods are doing a good job of keeping the whole FF forum "up to snuff" and have given Threadstarters certain tools to do the same on the various threads. I can only hope that's understood in the spirit it's meant.

I appreciate the input and participation of everyone here and from time to time I've gotten PM's from newer traders or members simply saying they appreciate it as well even w/o posting privileges and in some ways, that's almost the best part...
FUBAR...
  • #478
  • Mar 18, 2009 7:01pm Mar 18, 2009 7:01pm
((Knock Knock...))

"Who's there?"

"djambazov84"

"Huh?" Can anybody here pernounce that? Hey Jay!! You talk that funny stuff, how do you say that?"

"dj"

"Oh. Well come on in dj and set awhile. If you're a Hairy Bear in need of a trim, Bemac does a wonderful shear job between snorts of the Good Stuff. Can't vouch for the results but it does get the Fur outa your eye..."

"Careful tho... he's still tryin to make gas money for his Fishing Trip so you have to keep an eye on him. He'll have your knickers before you know where that breeze is coming from..."

Hey!! How 'bout that Yoorow?
FUBAR...
  • #479
  • Mar 18, 2009 7:09pm Mar 18, 2009 7:09pm
My pleasure AK,

First of all I wanted to congratulate your efforts on creating a very comfortable discussion environment which produces nothing short of remarkable and on-the-money discussions.

So to save the ramblings for later I will pull up a small 3 legged chair and will try to soak up as much as I can.

I appreciate the privilege in being able to participate and contribute
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #480
  • Edited 7:23pm Mar 18, 2009 7:13pm | Edited 7:23pm
Now That's a range...

Mind your Qp's, your Sp's, your P's and Q's, and your knickers...
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FUBAR...
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