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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,161
  • Mar 18, 2009 7:02am Mar 18, 2009 7:02am
Quoting time1300
Hello everyone,

Sorry for being absent this past few days as I am very busy and I will try to post whenever I can...
I have since closed all my positions and will wait to see how things play out. My schedule has gotten much busier thus I am not in front of the computer as much as I like to and that is the great part of this method as it allows you to have a few glances during the day to see what the 4H is doing and from that, compiling a course of action.

Happy Pipin
Hello mate...

I admire you with your passion with this thread. That's really something for sure. I was also like yourself, busy LIKE HELL since last week. Why everybody is so busy lately ey? World economic is begin to recover? Hmmm...just trying to relate our life with FX world...

Nonetheless, thank you for your update in here. It's good to see some senior members of this thread like yourself posting once in a while even you guys are busy...

Keep in touch...

BEST REGARDS
  • #19,162
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:16am Mar 18, 2009 9:16am
No trades for me today as it intrest rate decision day for the Dollar. Had an over night half unit short on USDCHF. Closed out earlier on for 20pips or so. Should have left it on...booohiss. I was short from 1.18077!!! Back at work today so can't really post as much.

There was a cable short on close of the 8:00am candle for me. You should have been able to grap 100pips on the 1H. I was cycling to work at that time.....damn!

Pipdance, it takes years and lots of reading/practice/reading/practice/effort/more effort to be even remotely any use at Forex Trading. Don't try to confuse yourself with too much too quickly. Take it slow and get the 4H basics correct. When the price is trending nicely, the MA are all running parallel, get in on a pull back to one of the MAs. Palmers site has lots of good examples. You don't need to be trading every day. I have traded a few the last couple of days, but I may not trade again for the rest of the month. With 360pips in the bag I have exceeded my monthly target, so now I will wait for another ideal/high probability setup.

Oh, try and write a trading plan if you can. Then stick to it. It takes take a few months to work out what kind of trader you are (position/swing/day etc). It took me a few months to write all my rules down...e.g. no trading on intrest rate days, don't try counter trend trades. These are some of my rules, but everyone is different and has their own styles.

Better get back to work.......
  • #19,163
  • Edited 9:45am Mar 18, 2009 9:29am | Edited 9:45am
[quote=neilbuc;2611687]No trades for me today as it intrest rate decision day for the Dollar....
Pipdance, it takes years and lots of reading/practice/reading/practice/effort/more effort to be even remotely any use at Forex Trading. Don't try to confuse yourself with too much too quickly. Take it slow and get the 4H basics correct. When the price is trending nicely, the MA are all running parallel, get in on a pull back to one of the MAs....
Oh, try and write a trading plan if you can. Then stick to it. It takes take a few months to work out what kind of trader you are (position/swing/day etc). It took me a few months to write all my rules down...e.g. no trading on intrest rate days, don't try counter trend trades. These are some of my rules, but everyone is different and has their own styles...
quote]

I truly agree with your post here dude...
Question : Is that your dog?
I was looking for a good pic for myself in FF too....
  • #19,164
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:59am Mar 18, 2009 9:59am
Hello all...

As per my d1 below, this pair is currently testing the 89sma which acting as the immediate resistance for EU now.

H4
Price is developing 3 INSIDE UP pattern (blue rectangular) with the recent candle is now beyond my fib 76.4%. It found support from 8 and 365 too...

I will only consider LONG for this pair once it is steady above 89sma of d1. Maybe sometime around Friday or next week?

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,165
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:45am Mar 18, 2009 10:45am
Quoting orangeRANGE

I truly agree with your post here dude...
Question : Is that your dog?
I was looking for a good pic for myself in FF too....
Yes, thats Mick. I have another Beagle called Pepper they are brothers. They are real characters

Yes the Euro has broken above 89sma now on the daily. I will be watching.
  • #19,166
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:47am Mar 18, 2009 11:47am
Hammerhead:

Here are my entries on the 1H, The purple vertical lines are when I made my entries. After the close of that candle on the purple vertical lines, I enter on the open of next candle and if the candle is too big, I wait for a little pullback, lets say to the 50% of the previous candle before I enter. I would then switch back to the 4H time frame to put in my profit targets and my stop losses.

But as many have emphasized, one must understand the 4H charts before moving to the shorter time frames. The shorter time frames are used solely to get an early entry within the parameters of the 4H time frame.

Hope this helps you.

Orange:
I am glad I can contribute to this thread as I myself was a newcomer at one time. I myself am not perfect and learn everyday from you guys posting your trades and comments. It is when you think you know everything is when you realize you don't and I myself have so much more to learn and I am glad I am part of this thread with all of you guys.
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,167
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:54am Mar 18, 2009 11:54am
Quoting neilbuc
No trades for me today as it intrest rate decision day for the Dollar. Had an over night half unit short on USDCHF. Closed out earlier on for 20pips or so. Should have left it on...booohiss. I was short from 1.18077!!! Back at work today so can't really post as much.

There was a cable short on close of the 8:00am candle for me. You should have been able to grap 100pips on the 1H. I was cycling to work at that time.....damn!

Pipdance, it takes years and lots of reading/practice/reading/practice/effort/more effort to be even remotely any use at...
Great advice here Neilbuc,

I agree with you 110% and you briefly touched on the amount of time and work needed to make a method your heart. I cannot emphasize the trading plan to all the newcomers. As neilbuc stated, it is very crucial for you to sit down and over time create a trading plan which you can stick to. This would be designed to your work style and revolve around your life schedule as in your work, kids etc. This is not a one day process but a few month process at which you might end up making changes on an ongoing basis until you have come to a point where trading is more automated and by that I mean, you can just look at the charts and know it the 4H is trending or not. The parallel moving averages are a great trending indicator and if you can wait for those trends and enter on pullbacks, you will be well on your way to profiting from the 4H method.

good luck all
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,168
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:03pm Mar 18, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting time1300
Hammerhead:

Here are my entries on the 1H, The purple vertical lines are when I made my entries....

Thanks a lot time1300... I'll study that carefully...
  • #19,169
  • Mar 18, 2009 1:35pm Mar 18, 2009 1:35pm
What is going on? hundreds pips in 5 mins. Is there any news?
  • #19,170
  • Mar 18, 2009 2:09pm Mar 18, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting fishmen
What is going on? hundreds pips in 5 mins. Is there any news?
That would be US Interest Rate Statement. This is why Phillip always says never to trade NFP or Interest Rates...if you're caught on the wrong side of the move, your stops can be jumped.
  • #19,171
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:55pm Mar 18, 2009 4:55pm
Can I just say......BOING!!!!!

Will have to wait for the dust to settle after the FED statement. They sure like buying those US Treasuries. Total expenditure up to $1.25 Trillion......thats a lot of zeros!!!
  • #19,172
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:44pm Mar 18, 2009 6:44pm
Quoting time1300
Great advice here Neilbuc,

I agree with you 110% and you briefly touched on the amount of time and work needed to make a method your heart. I cannot emphasize the trading plan to all the newcomers. As neilbuc stated, it is very crucial for you to sit down and over time create a trading plan which you can stick to. This would be designed to your work style and revolve around your life schedule as in your work, kids etc. This is not a one day process but a few month process at which you might end up making changes on an ongoing basis until you have...
Thanks guys, point well taken. I have been working on a trading (Business) plan for a while. Still have a long ways to go. It is funny how everytime I get my mind around some concept there is always a new twist to it or something to add. Talk about a lot to learn.

Again thanks for all the help.
  • #19,173
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:13pm Mar 18, 2009 8:13pm
Quoting BenStevo
That would be US Interest Rate Statement. This is why Phillip always says never to trade NFP or Interest Rates...if you're caught on the wrong side of the move, your stops can be jumped.
O, i see.What are the other days we should avoid?
  • #19,174
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:16pm Mar 18, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting Youssef-dia
[font=Arial][size=3][left]We are seeing a number of signs that the commodity currencies are getting set to make an aggressive rally. One very positive development is that commodity prices as represented by the CRB index have broken above the finaldowntrend resistance and are starting to develop upwardmomentum and this should support the currencies.
The Australian dollarhas broken above the downtrend resistance from the peak in September and also the more major peak in July. The Canadian dollar appears to be breaking above downtrend resistance from...
OMG, already there man. Where to get the CRB index chart? thanks
  • #19,175
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:39pm Mar 18, 2009 8:39pm
Hi Fishmen,

I'm not sure how much of Phillips stuff you've gone through (There is a table of contents on the very first page), but its really just avoiding NFP and Interest Rates (Federal Funds Rate). From all I have seen, its not that these events are unreliable or more prone to false moves, but its just that if you happen to be on the wrong side of the move and price starts to run, you may find your stop is not filled at the level you placed it at.

I don't pay a lot of attention around these times so I'm not 100% sure, but I think the US Fed funds rates are the most volatile (somewhere buried deep in this thread you will find a trade Phillip did around GBP rate statement as he said it wasn't as volatile).

If anyone else wants to put in their 2 cents, feel free, but I wouldn't get too caught up in any of the other news events. Especially when you're doing backtesting, you have no idea what news was going on at any particular point, so if you are getting positive results with this then its best not to overly confuse things by following the fundamentals as well.

Good luck with the trading.
Ben

Quoting fishmen
O, i see.What are the other days we should avoid?
  • #19,176
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:42am Mar 19, 2009 3:42am

The European currencies made gains during the past week, and the euro is now starting to take the lead as it exploded higher on Wednesday after the Federal reserve announced quantitative easing, which is a powerful boost for the uptrend. The weakness seen in the Swiss franc late last week was a result of SNB bank action and the Fed move will impact the dollar as well. The euro rarely starts a move, but if it doesn’t take over the lead then the
move tends to prove short-lived. The initial surge was seen in the emerging currencies as short positions were cut, but once the euro starts to participate in a significant way then the hedgers and speculators are getting involved.
The likely time for the peak in the currencies is around the Easter weekend. Although this is a major holiday, these are often reversal points in trends. The euro will lead this upmove, but if it is to prove powerful, risk appetites must continue to remain high.

The European currencies should trend higher into the early part of the week of March 30 before forming an intermediate peak and our initial targets for this upmove are the EUR/USD – 1.3700, USD/CHF – 1.1260 and GBP/USD – 1.4480 areas. Following this peak these currencies should pull back for a few days and possibly a week before the uptrend resumes.

The most likely time for a more significant high is the week of April 13, although it could come at the end of the previous week. If the 1.3700, 1.1260 and 1.4480 areas are surpassed then our ambitious targets for this upmove will
become 1.4225, 1.1000 and 1.4860 areas. Following this peak the currencies should begin a sustained downtrend.

We are not expecting much weakness during the next week and the supports at 1.3300, 1.1590 and 1.4050 are likely to hold on a closing basis. Only a close below the very strong level at 1.3000, 1.1860 and 1.3725 will signal the uptrend has ended early. They will then decline into June and this weakness will probably last into September before a major low is reached, but this negative outlook is unlikely.
  • #19,177
  • Mar 19, 2009 6:02am Mar 19, 2009 6:02am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...

I'm closing my 1st entry (0.6601) yesterday @ 0.6606 = 5pips gain only...

And...leaving my 2nd entry (0.6600) in open position with trailing stops 19 pips. New SL is now 0.6570 ( around 9 to 10pips below 21ema).

RIGHT NOW I AM ONLY RISKING 30PIPS FOR THIS ONE. Just trying to look for a free ride if the market is still favouring me...

My SL got hit before AU rallied yesterday...just little touch...!!!SHIT...!!!!
  • #19,178
  • Mar 19, 2009 6:31am Mar 19, 2009 6:31am
Hi all...

If I have larger stops yesterday...it would be 100pips ++ floating for my trade. Well, I guess I was unlucky.

So, I am looking for another LONG here. 3 INSIDE UP is still developing right now with 30mins to go before the recent candle is closed.

Immediate TL res waiting above and support level fib 38.2% below the recent candle.

Wait and see......................now

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,179
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:13am Mar 19, 2009 7:13am
Hi all...

First entry @ 0.6871

SL @ 0.6765 (5 pips below previous candle and 27/28pips below fib 38.2%)

Total Risk = 106 pips...too large...might have use 3 stages entries or trailing stops strategy....

REASONS FOR LONG:-
1) Previous 3 candles @ h4 formed 3 INSIDE UP pattern with the previous candle has closed above TL;
2) Basic lesson: Price > 8 > 21 > 89 = Strong uptrend market; &
3) MACD @ h4 showing a TC pattern as well.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,180
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:24am Mar 19, 2009 7:24am
If the market keep it bullish trend steady...my next initial target would be fib 23.6% (0.7000 region)

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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