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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,261
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:00pm Mar 18, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting MaMood
Yeah - got it.
To much adrenalin in my blood after such moves ...
And my risk level seems to be to high to stay profitable in the long run ....
Thank you!!
Two words came to my mind:
reckless
greed ...
  • #6,262
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:01pm Mar 18, 2009 6:01pm
Quoting Gro

thanks mom

Now this was - power learning

eer, mom=moment please.

I also gave glossary of abbreviations used in the TAF lounge, Please read

regards,

Sorry now I am on battlestations , chat later.
  • #6,263
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:06pm Mar 18, 2009 6:06pm
Watching the more active price feed on Oanda 5sec the pA on USDJPY shows a hard battle between buyers and sellers. Till now stalemate at this level with slight advantage for up side ....
  • #6,264
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:06pm Mar 18, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting fti
eer, mom=moment please.

I also gave glossary of abbreviations used in the TAF lounge, Please read
FTI ,apologies

the glossary do not know

  • #6,265
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:27pm Mar 18, 2009 6:27pm
Quoting Gro
FTI ,apologies

the glossary do not know

Hi Gro,

fti was referring to this two postings I think:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5191
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5195
  • #6,266
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:43pm Mar 18, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting fti
Actually, indianguyinny24, you brought up a good question.
Let the people here answer the question.

Then I would at least have a guide on who's arrived, and who's needs help.

regards
I do not believe that I arrived...
however...
Rule # 1,
"Never trade the news!"
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #6,267
  • Edited 7:25pm Mar 18, 2009 7:15pm | Edited 7:25pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Gro,

fti was referring to this two postings I think:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5191
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5195
Hi MaMood
thanks
  • #6,268
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:28pm Mar 18, 2009 8:28pm
oh wow
fed buying treasury bonds weakened the dollars , why ?
woke up to see 400 pips move ...
I ve got to be nimbler ,
looks like range is stretching and we are approaching greater volatility ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,269
  • Mar 18, 2009 8:51pm Mar 18, 2009 8:51pm
Quoting fti
Actually, indianguyinny24, you brought up a good question.
Let the people here answer the question.

Then I would at least have a guide on who's arrived, and who's needs help.

regards
My answer:

1. As lusan mentioned, don't trade into major news.

2. But if I got caught on the wrong side, with such a huge move, likely that I am at the wrong side of the trend. I will cut and get out. Recomposed for further trading if mindset is not disturbed. If get pissed off, stop trading.

3. Even I think I am still on the right side of a bigger trend (I am speaking on a general sense, not in current chart terrain) rescue is very terrious and difficult, I may not have enough time to wait for price to turn arround and carry out my rescue. I am more inclined to cut and get out and wait for sign of price moving in my perceived direction, if time and mindset allows.
  • #6,270
  • Edited 11:03pm Mar 18, 2009 9:18pm | Edited 11:03pm
squared and watching g/u 4207-12 area for scout entry.

strong bounce from 4155 area, not quite sure which way she wants to go as were back at 4212 .
Although my bias is up from 4155 area, have to see how she plays out.
mm is reduced for today after yesterdays range.
  • #6,271
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:36pm Mar 18, 2009 9:36pm
fti,

Thank you for the thread. Your analysis makes me learned more.



Quoting fti
Since I am watch from the sideline.
I will try to explain a little technical analysis here.
When the figs were released neutral to favour ofthe usd. Many like myself jumped in buying usd.
noted the 5=7 min downward swing in the Eur and the cable.
It was very evident that from the bias perspective bull usd opportunity surfaced. after that , the markets reversed on strong swift upward bars. evidence that many bull had been caught and a series of loss cutting escalated the up swing. since then we have a possibility of a congested possible head shoulder...
  • #6,272
  • Mar 18, 2009 9:48pm Mar 18, 2009 9:48pm
Hoh..
Nice..
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,273
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:20pm Mar 18, 2009 11:20pm
Quoting fti
Actually, indianguyinny24, you brought up a good question.
Let the people here answer the question.

Then I would at least have a guide on who's arrived, and who's needs help.

regards

well FTI i remember you telling once... in same situation if yo are on wrong side and only flip once.... i rember it was sometime UK thing some big news event...

I guess it came true here too... also i would also agree trading in news is really one hell of chance anyone is taking..

V
  • #6,274
  • Mar 18, 2009 11:33pm Mar 18, 2009 11:33pm
Quote
Just for your info, I just bot 3 mio usd at 95.73,74.75
to take profits.Guess where I was short Usd/yen.


fti,
awesome trade!!! 10-15pips near the bottom?
good for the books.
so where did u short the yen?
  • #6,275
  • Mar 19, 2009 2:31am Mar 19, 2009 2:31am
GM Friends ;-)
  • #6,276
  • Mar 19, 2009 2:58am Mar 19, 2009 2:58am
Morning fti and all

Great to see that fti is back sharing his wisdom with us again and also to see some new faces here too.

As most of you probably know, I keep a close watch on fundamentals as part of my mo and have noticed a sharp rift between entering trades post news release. Last year, good news for the usd meant usually that it would strengthen as per the ff "usual effect" in the news section. Since the crisis has occurred this is no longer the case. Bad news for usd, usually means it will strengthen and good news on usd, means it will weaken. The reason imo is pretty simple and that is that usd is seen as safe haven currency, so if investors see any thing negative in the news, they rush to the usd (because they view it as safe) and when positive news comes out they become more adventurous again and look at other investment opportunities. (Hope I am not sending coal to Newcastle with this, but have seen numerous posts on ff and other forums questioning this. )

I think this is important to bear in mind when entering post news release. Please do not be rigid about it, as it could shift back to previous behaviour at any time.

Wishing you all good trading

regards
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #6,277
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:12am Mar 19, 2009 3:12am
dance the tune

approaching high volatility so as our usual motto says

"be nimble"

good trading to all
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,278
  • Edited 4:09am Mar 19, 2009 3:38am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting DutchAngel
Morning fti and all

Great to see that fti is back sharing his wisdom with us again and also to see some new faces here too.

As most of you probably know, I keep a close watch on fundamentals as part of my mo and have noticed a sharp rift between entering trades post news release. Last year, good news for the usd meant usually that it would strengthen as per the ff "usual effect" in the news section. Since the crisis has occurred this is no longer the case. Bad news for usd, usually means it will strengthen and good news on usd, means it...
Hi Dutchangel,
Interesting perspective you have on market figs.

Here's my outlook. Think about it and see if it makes any sense for you.

In reality, the major figs released, means nothing to the dealers/mmakers and traders.

Why do I say this?

From the perspective of traders and dealers. Traders react to market quotes from mmakers and reacts to the gyrations of the markets, managing their band of tolerance of their P&L swings.

From the perspective of the mmakers. They manage their position by leaning on the paper orders that they carry. Managing their price quotes and blotter based on what they can see accumulating in the market place. The higher tier they are the more they can see. That is why people like to be covered by a big brother tier one, that they may have some info.

So no real professional give a ... about the figs.
EXCEPT
snake oil men that depends on their ability to talk shop to sell wares.

Wannabe traders that think that they will be profitable thru their ability to be very learned. If anything the bias the that come from PREDICTING ability, will ultimately kill them. This is because the market is very efficient, in factoring the aspiration and gambles into the price.

The people who find real use of these releases of interim figs, are the economist, think tanks and policy administrators who using their "models" try to gauge the impact of their policies. These people look from mostly a macro perspective and are normally "long term" in outlook.

So what drives markets after fig releases, is basically mass of fear and greed.AND this canoot be PREDICTABLE.

regards

PS I hope you and family are well.
  • #6,279
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:55am Mar 19, 2009 3:55am
Hi FTI

Yesterday was a very nice lesson.
100% of mindset is very patient and hard work and Ego (greed and fear) that is capable of breaking at the moment.Yesterday "I ran an avalanche" ,

FTI cut to 100%mindsetsword.

I am very grateful for your lessons FTI and I am pleased that you are very strict and careful for us.Please use the sharp sword to our head.

heavy exercise - easy fight

Thanks to all who contribute to the fiber and not fear for your head.

Better to lose your head here ,than in the market.




  • #6,280
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:26am Mar 19, 2009 4:26am
Quoting hcong168
My answer:

1. As lusan mentioned, don't trade into major news.

2. But if I got caught on the wrong side, with such a huge move, likely that I am at the wrong side of the trend....
Hi hcong,

Your 2
------
Of course with much experience there are ways this can be managed. If you had much foreign cap and good MM, it is much easier.

Your 3
-------
In summary, Think managing within book capacity. In fast markets, survival depends on reflex. There is little time to strategise, and if initial strategy is in trouble, then just damage control. If you stop to think you will lag behind market, very far behind.

regards
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