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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,221
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:19am Mar 18, 2009 10:19am

... reminds me of the power of today's race (Tommy Emmanuel)

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  • #6,222
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:26am Mar 18, 2009 10:26am
Since I am watch from the sideline.
I will try to explain a little technical analysis here.
When the figs were released neutral to favour ofthe usd. Many like myself jumped in buying usd.
noted the 5=7 min downward swing in the Eur and the cable.
It was very evident that from the bias perspective bull usd opportunity surfaced. after that , the markets reversed on strong swift upward bars. evidence that many bull had been caught and a series of loss cutting escalated the up swing. since then we have a possibility of a congested possible head shoulder formation, indicating that she is slaughtering some panicing sturbborn bulls.

Now she is trying to invite more usd bulls to try to top her off here, but with unfinished loss distribution and the lure that the upside for the Eur may be limited from theperspective ofthe daily bar range, some bulls may try to reinstate.If the usd buying is strong enough, then we will realise the general expectations that the head and should technical pic completes. Otherwise there will be another round of blooding.

Surely if the h/s confirms the usd buying will be swift as mmakers will duct the on slaught. But if you bet now, then the odds is 50/50.

I am incline to flow the flow than to bet against the original impulse although , my bias is bull usd.

Most important for me here is MM strategies and "feel".
So I keep asking her for signs, before I engage.

regards

If scouts got caught long usd wrongly, the situation can be remedied,. But if the attacks got caught, much bleeding would be the result. Therefore the MM strategies from here is mission critical.
  • #6,223
  • Mar 18, 2009 12:10pm Mar 18, 2009 12:10pm
k all good trading n be careful on the news front ,
Im done for the day , still unable to trade properly due to net (keep dropping off) nevertheless made some minimum pip

good trading n cya all tommorow
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,224
  • Mar 18, 2009 1:33pm Mar 18, 2009 1:33pm
FED says 'hi'
  • #6,225
  • Mar 18, 2009 2:03pm Mar 18, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting piccolo
FED says 'hi'
hmmm ... this is probably HIIIIIIIIIII
  • #6,226
  • Mar 18, 2009 2:21pm Mar 18, 2009 2:21pm
Hi,
How many of you caught the run?

Just for your info, I am still actively trading.
and will be until tokyo lunches.
First 500pip range this year.
  • #6,227
  • Mar 18, 2009 2:33pm Mar 18, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting fti
Hi,
How many of you caught the run?

Just for your info, I am still actively trading.
and will be until tokyo lunches

...I am looking at it from afar

You have a great reward for bull bias ... run the long race?


  • #6,228
  • Edited 2:49pm Mar 18, 2009 2:36pm | Edited 2:49pm
Quoting Gro

...I am looking at it from afar

You have a great reward for bull bias ... run the long race?


Hi Gro,
when I talk bias, i alwats talk from a usd vs currency perspective.
My bull was bull usd. read again the posts.
So I was very wrong, but I made money.
Now do you understand why I do not carry into figs and major events?
And why the MO using scouts , attack and rescues?
And why we must never fight flow?
And there's so much more.........without experience, its gonna be hard for the traders to understand.
Wait till you see 2000pip moves in one LEG runs.

regards

Do you know that the Nikkei225 futures in SIMEX a long time ago moved 10000 points in a matter of 15 minutes. More than 50 traders were bankrupted and became multi millionaires within that 30 minutes time range.
Some of them are my friends.
  • #6,229
  • Mar 18, 2009 2:48pm Mar 18, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting fti
Hi Gro,
when I talk bias, i alwats talk from a usd vs currency perspective.
My bull was bull usd. read again the posts.
So I was very wrong, but I made money.
Now do you understand why I do not carry into figs and major events?
And why the MO using scouts , attack and rescues?
And why we must never fight flow?
And there's so much more.........without experience, its gonna be hard for the traders to understand.

regards
Hi fti,

I am glad to hear that you are unharmed (but not surprised ). After a small loss I had to flip and made around +87 pips fully geared during london but sat out this news event.. after the first 240pip 1min candle the gambler in me wanted to buy but somehow I looked at the daily range and didn't think of this as a high probability trade and stayed out. Turns out there was room for much more.. but I am not that experienced to capitalize on such events (where would I get out?).

Interesting to note that FED has undone the usd/chf move that SNB created last week.. maybe we will see SNB again.

regards,
  • #6,230
  • Mar 18, 2009 2:57pm Mar 18, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting piccolo
Hi fti,

I am glad to hear that you are unharmed (but not surprised ). After a small loss I had to flip and made around +87 pips fully geared during london but sat out this news event.. after the first 240pip 1min candle the gambler in me wanted to buy but somehow I looked at the daily range and didn't think of this as a high probability trade and stayed out. Turns out there was room for much more.. but I am not that experienced to capitalize on such events (where would I get out?).

Interesting to note that FED has undone the usd/chf move...
Beware, interesting stuff gonna happen tomorrow.

When markets flow, you have no time to think.it is all reflex.
either you got it or you don't, you think and you'll be introuble.
  • #6,231
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:01pm Mar 18, 2009 3:01pm
Quoting fti
Hi,
How many of you caught the run?

Just for your info, I am still actively trading.
and will be until tokyo lunches.
First 500pip range this year.

Hi fti,

thanx to my "classical MO" today I got most of the run higly exposed (thanx to foreign cap from earlier profits today).

I think that day will be in my memories for ever.
I only used my 3000 EUR special account today, but managed to grow the book exorbitant
  • #6,232
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:57pm Mar 18, 2009 3:57pm
My mind is full of sentimentals ...

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Inserted Video


Let's see what Sydney will bring ...
  • #6,233
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:03pm Mar 18, 2009 4:03pm
was curios anyone got hurt today....

i saw in one min such a jump havent seen that...i am happy most of you made money...

but i was thinking what if you are wrong side and then whoop 240 pips move against u in a mintue.... i dont know what to think... even MM is good if you can implement it... i dont see u can implement MM in this time...

Again just my thoughts... i guess i do belive in positive thinking but this is real time ... and i can see see worst posiible true that 10% of book is gone... close for the day...


Again just my thoughts...


V
  • #6,234
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:06pm Mar 18, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
was curios anyone got hurt today....

i saw in one min such a jump havent seen that...i am happy most of you made money...

but i was thinking what if you are wrong side and then whoop 240 pips move against u in a mintue.... i dont know what to think... even MM is good if you can implement it... i dont see u can implement MM in this time...


V
Hi indianguyinny24,
If you are truely trying to learn.
Maybe reread the thread carefully. Then you will understand why that cannot happen, unless...........

regards
  • #6,235
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:12pm Mar 18, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting fti
Hi indianguyinny24,
If you are truely trying to learn.
...........

regards

ok Chief.... i only watch Forex market from sideline when i am in office... so i can only guess...

but i am still reading this thread...

V
  • #6,236
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:16pm Mar 18, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
ok Chief.... i only watch Forex market from sideline when i am in office... so i can only guess...

but i am still reading this thread...

V
Actually, indianguyinny24, you brought up a good question.
Let the people here answer the question.

Then I would at least have a guide on who's arrived, and who's needs help.

regards
  • #6,237
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:19pm Mar 18, 2009 4:19pm
My dear Lady, what are your intensions for this night??
I'm awaiting you below 9600.
If you like come on and visit me
  • #6,238
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:21pm Mar 18, 2009 4:21pm
Quoting MaMood
My dear Lady, what are your intensions for this night??
I'm awaiting you below 9600.
If you like come on and visit me

MaMood ,

may i ask you current MO... are you planning to go long for below 96 or you still short wait till it is below 96 to take profit.


Thanks
V
  • #6,239
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:21pm Mar 18, 2009 4:21pm
Quoting fti
Hi indianguyinny24,
If you are truely trying to learn.
Maybe reread the thread carefully. Then you will understand why that cannot happen, unless...........

regards
unless you ride into news fully armed & hoping..?
  • #6,240
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:24pm Mar 18, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
MaMood ,

may i ask you current MO... are you planning to go long for below 96 or you still short wait till it is below 96 to take profit.


Thanks
V
Hi V,

I'm short.
Heavily short ....

BTW: Cable seems to be leading ...

did a strong attack down to restest of 9565
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