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Diary of a Mad Surfer

  • #641
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:21am Mar 18, 2009 10:21am
*UPDATE* I have traded very little since my 6,000+ pip victory in november.
I have won a few and lost a few but it's only been a few trades since then. And I have not lost any money.
MY DISCIPLINE AND PATIENCE KICKS ASS
Thats why I am successful, because of discipline and patience, and it all came from my mantra

see here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=84

If it's not Trending, I'm not Trading.
Just Trade It
  • #642
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:56am Mar 23, 2009 3:56am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Uj daily & 4h both in the barrell, 1h sitting at the pivot point.

not looked at UJ this year, but it just caught my attention also weekly is just below the TL

watching for a short from 95.5

So BWR whats your view - am i on the ball, or on cloud cockoo
  • #643
  • Mar 25, 2009 3:43am Mar 25, 2009 3:43am
I would be careful with shorts right now. This may be the start of an uptrend and this is just a retracement. But we could resume the downtrend as well and that pin in the barrel on E.J daily looks good so I'm taking it. Watch for support at the 100 daily. Trading in the barrel can reward you with some good trades when you catch them right, it can also be choppy between the 100 and 200 and it tends to consolidate there. But the 100 is a few hundred pips away so why not? Just remember to set a trailing stop once your in profit and let it ride. If not then respect your stop loss.
Just Trade It
  • #644
  • Mar 25, 2009 3:50am Mar 25, 2009 3:50am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I would be careful with shorts right now. This may be the start of an uptrend and this is just a retracement. But we could resume the downtrend as well and that pin in the barrel on E.J daily looks good so I'm taking it. Watch for support at the 100 daily. Trading in the barrel can reward you with some good trades when you catch them right, it can also be choppy between the 100 and 200 and it tends to consolidate there. But the 100 is a few hundred pips away so why not? Just remember to set a trailing stop once your in profit and let it ride. If...
Any advice on stop size and method for trailing?
  • #645
  • Mar 25, 2009 3:59am Mar 25, 2009 3:59am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I would be careful with shorts right now. This may be the start of an uptrend and this is just a retracement. But we could resume the downtrend as well and that pin in the barrel on E.J daily looks good so I'm taking it. Watch for support at the 100 daily. Trading in the barrel can reward you with some good trades when you catch them right, it can also be choppy between the 100 and 200 and it tends to consolidate there. But the 100 is a few hundred pips away so why not? Just remember to set a trailing stop once your in profit and let it ride. If...
Totally agree, nearly all pairs are at critical points, but i still favour the short side, most of the pairs i'm looking at have made good retracements to 50% fib's on daily's, whilst we could be going long, i still think shorts are safe enough to pick up some pips, target zones should be watched closely for price to turn long.
  • #646
  • Mar 25, 2009 4:47am Mar 25, 2009 4:47am
Quoting MPP
Any advice on stop size and method for trailing?

I find a technical area for my stop loss to avoid hunters. Then I adjust my position size so if my stop is hit then I only lose 0.5% of my capital. I normally have a stop of between 50 to 100 pips. Once in profit 65 or more pips I move the stop up to +10 pips and look to enter a new position with the same rules as above and then I normally trail the first position by 180 pips or so. ( a little more than one days volatility)
The goal is scale into a trend with minimal risk and maximum reward and to have each position a few hundred pips in profit. I don't go for 20 pip trades.
If you use this risk example you will lose very little of your capital even during a losing streak, but if you catch a good trend then you can have up to 25% of your equity earning pips while only having 1% risk.
(thats whats worked for me anyways)
Just Trade It
  • #647
  • Mar 25, 2009 4:56am Mar 25, 2009 4:56am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I find a technical area for my stop loss to avoid hunters. Then I adjust my position size so if my stop is hit then I only lose 0.5% of my capital. I normally have a stop of between 50 to 100 pips. Once in profit 65 or more pips I move the stop up to +10 pips and look to enter a new position with the same rules as above and then I normally trail the first position by 180 pips or so. ( a little more than one days volatility)
The goal is scale into a trend with minimal risk and maximum reward and to have each position a few hundred pips in profit....
straight forward enough, i've been looking to scale in and compound the winners, just can't get the starting point. LOL Also thinking of changing my broker to give me more flexable options so i can trade more pairs.
  • #648
  • Mar 25, 2009 5:05am Mar 25, 2009 5:05am
Quoting MPP
straight forward enough, i've been looking to scale in and compound the winners, just can't get the starting point. LOL Also thinking of changing my broker to give me more flexable options so i can trade more pairs.

What broker do you have?
Try Oanda, they are not perfect (no broker is) and you can trade any size you want which allows you to completely control your risk. They even allow you to trade 10 cent positions. Risk is the most important aspect of any system. Followed by exits and then entries.
Just Trade It
  • #649
  • Mar 25, 2009 5:15am Mar 25, 2009 5:15am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
What broker do you have?
Try Oanda, they are not perfect (no broker is) and you can trade any size you want which allows you to completely control your risk. They even allow you to trade 10 cent positions. Risk is the most important aspect of any system. Followed by exits and then entries.
FXCM - great broker, but even there MT4 platform is limted compared to the rest.
  • #650
  • Mar 25, 2009 5:24pm Mar 25, 2009 5:24pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
that pin in the barrel on E.J daily looks good so I'm taking it.

I tried to stalk it but the trade never happened. Wed. candle kinda screws the pin up but not too much, it only closed slightly higher than the candle before the pin. Todays candle will give us a better clue.
Just Trade It
  • #651
  • Mar 26, 2009 1:07am Mar 26, 2009 1:07am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I tried to stalk it but the trade never happened. Wed. candle kinda screws the pin up but not too much, it only closed slightly higher than the candle before the pin. Todays candle will give us a better clue.
I think my shootgun failed, need to upgrade to snipper, i took the break of the daily bar - SL hit

so how do you target better entry points then
  • #652
  • Mar 26, 2009 1:46am Mar 26, 2009 1:46am
Quoting MPP
I think my shootgun failed, need to upgrade to snipper, i took the break of the daily bar - SL hit

so how do you target better entry points then


When I have a trade in mind, like yesterday, I wait for it to start going in my direction by using breakouts on lower time frames as my entry. Even though I trade mostly daily charts I will use a 1 or 5 min chart for timing. I have found that this does not increase my win% but it does decrease my losing%
yesterday is a perfect example. I saw a pin at an area of resistance and though it would be a good trade, then I went down to the 15 min charts and never saw anything interesting so I stayed out. Had the 15 min charts looked good then I would go to the 5, 1 or 30sec. charts and wait for a range breakout or a new high/low. But always let the markets go in your direction first before entry.
Just Trade It
  • #653
  • Mar 26, 2009 3:09am Mar 26, 2009 3:09am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
When I have a trade in mind, like yesterday, I wait for it to start going in my direction by using breakouts on lower time frames as my entry. Even though I trade mostly daily charts I will use a 1 or 5 min chart for timing. I have found that this does not increase my win% but it does decrease my losing%
yesterday is a perfect example. I saw a pin at an area of resistance and though it would be a good trade, then I went down to the 15 min charts and never saw anything interesting so I stayed out. Had the 15 min charts looked good then I would go...
Not been that low on the TF's, i've been looking at Dib's style entries of the 1h using the daily pivot instead of the daily open, my problem is knowing when to TP and drop the trade, i've had a number of good entries turn bad haveing been up a good number of pips, i need to start TPing part earlier and bring the trade to BE quicker, if it's gonna go, then the size of the stop is pretty much irrelivant i think.
  • #654
  • Mar 27, 2009 1:01pm Mar 27, 2009 1:01pm
Quoting MPP
if it's gonna go, then the size of the stop is pretty much irrelivant i think.

Actually your stop is one of the most important aspects of any successful system if not THE most important. It allows you to control your risk. It allows you to be wrong ten times in a row and have the eleventh trade not only cover the previous ten losses but the next twenty losses as well. Most people only focus on entries. You can have a system that gives you an 80% reliability on entries but still lose money in the long run. While at the same time you can have a system that has 35% entry reliability (which is worse than a coin toss strategy) and make a small fortune year after year. And it all has to do with your stops and your position size.
Just Trade It
  • #655
  • Mar 31, 2009 2:48am Mar 31, 2009 2:48am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Gu 4h Ema's are tight - don't think they could get much closer. now to see which way it breaks.
  • #656
  • Apr 15, 2009 7:46am Apr 15, 2009 7:46am
Quoting MPP
Gu 4h Ema's are tight - don't think they could get much closer. now to see which way it breaks.

Broke to the north but in a channel
Just Trade It
  • #657
  • Apr 16, 2009 3:52am Apr 16, 2009 3:52am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Broke to the north but in a channel
Missed all the move, been overtrading, so stopped for a while and now catching up on J16 trying to get back to basics - still unsure about how you enter the trades

so here's my plan - open a daily, 4h and 1h charts for each pair i trade, sit back and wait for EMA's to merge then apply fib's and catch the breakout.

With this in mind Uchf is loking very good - now to decide on direction.

also have you seen Bemac's new thread on Fib's reversed engineered -i haven't got that one sorted either - but i'm watching it, find the channel and trade the breaks - very similar i think

catch you later
  • #658
  • Apr 16, 2009 8:42am Apr 16, 2009 8:42am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
EJ daily in the barrel - should make for a good trade

but how to decide where to enter - high and low of range is from the long noses te top of which is a PB, at our 50% we have a Bullish PB which should have taken us long again, but today has put in a BEOB (plenty of time to change it's mind) but both bars have bounced from our short signal and it looks like price wants to close below it - shorts in play?

lets see what tomorrow brings in the way of confirmation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #659
  • Last Post: Apr 27, 2009 9:14am Apr 27, 2009 9:14am
Quoting MPP
Missed all the move, been overtrading, so stopped for a while and now catching up on J16 trying to get back to basics - still unsure about how you enter the trades

so here's my plan - open a daily, 4h and 1h charts for each pair i trade, sit back and wait for EMA's to merge then apply fib's and catch the breakout.

With this in mind Uchf is loking very good - now to decide on direction.

also have you seen Bemac's new thread on Fib's reversed engineered -i haven't got that one sorted either - but i'm watching it, find the channel and trade the...
I have a list of entries all based from technical aspects. Breakouts are my favorite entry, or P.A. The barrel and fibs are a way to "measure" where the price is and where it may go. I looked at Bemac's thread for a few minutes but my fibs work fine for me and if it ain't broke then don't fix it.
Fibs, barrels, channels, breakouts (from trendlines or patterns) P.A and of course gut feeling.
Just Trade It
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