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  • #581
  • Mar 17, 2009 2:10pm Mar 17, 2009 2:10pm
THX Lance!

Strat, what to do when there is a set-up at the candle close but a few hours later is a (high impact) news event?
  • #582
  • Mar 17, 2009 3:06pm Mar 17, 2009 3:06pm
Hi Guys - great thread and thanx Nicola for directing me here!

I've copied a post I made over on T2W; please feel free to comment. Strat is so right on the Shooting star and hammer standing out. They really do. Just look at the daily S/Star on usdcad on the triple top. Great candle that gave way to some good pippage!!
Please ignore my TF analysis though as I do trade the 4hr too. I wait for the daily PA to come into a PPZ and then use the 4hr and sometimes 1hr S/stars/ hammers or IBs combined with fib confluence and SR levels.

If i've learnt anything from TD over the year(s) guys its like Omni said;

Don't got looking for pins randomly. Set your charts up with all the SR levels etc and then wait for the market to come into those areas. If a pin forms between 2 major SR levels I usually pass on it. Pins are 5% of the trade. The other 95% is where they have formed and why. The pin just shows the rejection of that level.

I find by doing this I limit my markets down to a few pairs a day. Set the major levels on the Wkly, Daily and maybe 4hr and then scan the charts to see which pairs are coming into those levels.

I'm not interested in pairs in the DMZ (De-Militarized Zone from Vietnam days - the area of dead ground between North / South Vietnam, our DMZ being the area between the major SR levels). They don't feature that day. Only trade the pairs at these levels. Some days many will be, others nothing. Depends how many you trade. Remember, the best value is generally found around these levels.

Until you have mastered the horizontal levels I wouldn't bother trading anything else. Forget break outs, Fakeys, Patterns, Trend lines (only use them for direction if you can't see it from the bars!)

For better trades ensure you have fib confluence and make sure the hammer/star is clearly at the top / bottom of a move with a big Kangaroo tail into thin air if you like!! And make sure you take all the best-set ups to tip the win ratio into your favour. Sure, some will fail; get over it! There are no certanties in trading only probable outcomes based on rigid application and implementation of your rules. The moment you diverge from your rules you have failed. Simple.
A smoker who had given up but has a crafty fag with a beer on a Fri night has not given up and is fooling himself. Same in trading. You can't follow the rules 95% of the time and then have a 'blowout' on 5% because it's that 5% of ill-discipline that will kill you!!

I'm thinking it may be better for some of you to refer to them in their Japanese names. Shooting Stars and Hammer. Look them up on 'tinters there are loads of free examples. Shooting stars - falling from the heavens ie turning point after a rally
Hammer - Hammering out a bottom (after a fall).
Pin bars at the bottom of a move with the tail in the direction of the recent move are not 'pin-bars' but 'inverted-hammer'; when followed by a bullish bar/candle they often indicate the bottom of a move, not a signal to get short.

Study the bar; where it is and ask why; look at the PA around it. Just don't trade a pin because it's a pin bar?

Capiche??

Hope this is helpful and not a rant http://www.trade2win.com/boards/imag...icon_smile.gif

Great thread, lets hope it's as successful as my other fav thread (Potential Setups) over on T2W!
Good trading all,
Grim
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #583
  • Mar 17, 2009 5:41pm Mar 17, 2009 5:41pm
In case you missed it, start at page 444 on Jacko's thread where you will witness a discussion between two of the most successful and respected traders here on FF - Wayne Jackson (Jacko) and Jim of James 16.

Nothing further needs to be said.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #584
  • Mar 17, 2009 5:47pm Mar 17, 2009 5:47pm
Quoting cowboying
HI Strat

Really enjoying the thread comparing what my interpretation is against yours, great way for building confidence and leaning I've defiantly been caught out trying to trade multiple time frames ending up not knowing what me arse from my elbow is doing.

[font=Arial]Defining the lead TF and sticking to just the two is so much easer to manage. When scanning charts in the morning I’m experimenting with simple S&R by drawing one resistant line and one support line from Monthly, Weekly and Daily this...
From a lurker to a poster, congratulations! Yes, that's the way I enter trades.

With regard to drawing trend lines, look at Nicola's charts - they are very good examples and are much more meaningful.

Keep practicing and practicing - but don't go blind doing it!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #585
  • Mar 17, 2009 5:55pm Mar 17, 2009 5:55pm
Excellent work with the index page Rogueforex! Thank you.
Good threads can get very long and the info often missed but this index will solve that problem.
Your layout is so easy to use...fantastic!

Thanks to you Strat for a very interesting thread!

Cheers
  • #586
  • Mar 17, 2009 5:57pm Mar 17, 2009 5:57pm
Quoting strat
In case you missed it, start at page 444 on Jacko's thread where you will witness a discussion between two of the most successful and respected traders here on FF - Wayne Jackson (Jacko) and Jim of James 16.

Nothing further needs to be said.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
It was definitely a good read!
  • #587
  • Mar 17, 2009 6:01pm Mar 17, 2009 6:01pm
Quoting 4xWheels
Very funny, but I remain confused and I doubt the hell is out of me. Have mercy. I'll admit I celebrated my second 30th birthday last year.

So I'll re-phrase the question and hope you don't mind. On a normal day for you, and using the charts you trade off, What time is it when your daily bar closes? And where are you? Please, if you see what I'm after here, answer it any way you'd like.

And while I'm on Time, your recent post on time frames was illuminating.

Wheelz
When I'm back in CA, my next candle starts to print at 9pm which is midnight New York time. I have noticed recently with more activity in Sydney and Tokyo (Asian trading) that what used to be a "close" at 2pm New York time is no longer true.

In actual reality, there isn't really a close because during the week, there is always a market open somewhere around the world.

The only real close is at 5pm New York time on Fridays when the US closes until the market opens again in Sydney on their Monday (Sunday in the US) producing the "Sunday" bar.

Now, don't tell me that's confused you even more!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #588
  • Mar 17, 2009 6:20pm Mar 17, 2009 6:20pm
Analysis:
Weekly: has struggled to find buyers above 1.2821 for two weeks and price has closed below trend line (white dotted line).

Daily: Price is falling and has closed beneath the 20. Minor support at 1.2623 level but Sell Stop placed below this at 1.2615.

Target: 1.2414

Feedback welcome (with reasoning )

Cheers
Dan

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  • #589
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:01pm Mar 17, 2009 7:01pm
Quoting Baba G
Perfect.......That process is STANDARD.I use 3 different colors to help the eye remember which S/R belongs to what time frame.

If i dont cross check that well i cant sleep!!!
Baba G - I'm confused (so what's new?) - which post are you referring to?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #590
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:04pm Mar 17, 2009 7:04pm
Quoting haribon2008
Counter Trade:

Shorted USD/JPY @ 98.65, SL=125..... seems 4 succesive weak candles won't sustain current offensives, posible retracements (+150pips) ...
All I see is green with upward momentum - where do you get your crystal ball from - mine obviously needs replacing!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #591
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:09pm Mar 17, 2009 7:09pm
Quoting rogueforex
This file will be updated regularly to include new content. If you need another file format, notice errors, or have suggestions please PM or email me and I will be happy to oblige.

Thanks

This format is designed for higher resolution displays, you may need to adjust your settings or resize the text boxes if you are having trouble reading the text.
I can't thank you enough, Lance.

I can't post it on the 1st page yet as when I download it, for some reason it is picking up China Excel with lots of Chinese characters in it, so will do when I get back to plastic city.

Note the beautiful vintage Fender Stratocaster!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #592
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:12pm Mar 17, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting kurt
THX Lance!

Strat, what to do when there is a set-up at the candle close but a few hours later is a (high impact) news event?
The only news event I stay away from is NFP on the FIRST Friday of each month - I will not trade into that. No problem with the others.

Another beauty of trading the Daily is that the wild swings seen on M5, M15 etc are fully absorbed within the Daily candle

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #593
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:16pm Mar 17, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Hi Guys - great thread and thanx Nicola for directing me here!

I've copied a post I made over on T2W; please feel free to comment. Strat is so right on the Shooting star and hammer standing out. They really do. Just look at the daily S/Star on usdcad on the triple top. Great candle that gave way to some good pippage!!
Please ignore my TF analysis though as I do trade the 4hr too. I wait for the daily PA to come into a PPZ and then use the 4hr and sometimes 1hr S/stars/ hammers or IBs combined with fib confluence and SR levels.

If i've learnt...
Grim,
Great job and very well explained. These things need re-inforcing time after time and then again, time after time and you have done a wonderful job.

Keep stopping by and telling us more - we are all eager to learn and as the pizza man said "I don't know it all!"

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #594
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:18pm Mar 17, 2009 7:18pm
Quoting Antra
Excellent work with the index page Rogueforex! Thank you.
Good threads can get very long and the info often missed but this index will solve that problem.
Your layout is so easy to use...fantastic!

Thanks to you Strat for a very interesting thread!

Cheers
Royalty visiting us now from 2004 - I am deeply honoured - thank you!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #595
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:26pm Mar 17, 2009 7:26pm
Quoting AstonDan
Analysis:
Weekly: has struggled to find buyers above 1.2821 for two weeks and price has closed below trend line (white dotted line).

Daily: Price is falling and has closed beneath the 20. Minor support at 1.2623 level but Sell Stop placed below this at 1.2615.

Target: 1.2414

Feedback welcome (with reasoning )

Cheers
Dan

Attachment
I don't see why you are looking to go short - I'm waiting for a bullish candle to attack 1.3063 again!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #596
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:33pm Mar 17, 2009 7:33pm
Quoting AstonDan
Analysis:
Weekly: has struggled to find buyers above 1.2821 for two weeks and price has closed below trend line (white dotted line).

Daily: Price is falling and has closed beneath the 20. Minor support at 1.2623 level but Sell Stop placed below this at 1.2615.

Target: 1.2414

Feedback welcome (with reasoning )

Cheers
Dan

Attachment

Hey Dan,
please dont take anything i say as anything but my opinion,
I tend to agree that usd/cad is looking down, i too am keen for a slice of the action, the only thing i would differ with is the resistance level, for me personally ( i could be very wrong, and more than likely am!!lol) the level would be around the 1.2765 mark, and as we are below that i will be in a short position at the break of yesterdays low, with a stop above the hi of the harmi 4 days ago.
just my 2 cents worth.
cheers big ears
geoff
  • #597
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:40pm Mar 17, 2009 7:40pm
Quoting strat
Baba G - I'm confused (so what's new?) - which post are you referring to?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
I use three different colours when I am putting in SR lines. One for the weekly, one for the daily and one for the 4hr (OK guilty on the 4hr thing).
Then I know when I look on any chart when it came from.
I also faded them a lot and made them dotted lines because my chart looked like I dropped spaghetti on it.

But I think BabaG is referring to the moving averages from each timeframe.
  • #598
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:53pm Mar 17, 2009 7:53pm
Hey Strat,

I keep reading your time frame support post.I had never really thought about it as a separate disipline.

When i read Grimweasels post i found i had absolutly no idea what he was talking about because i had no understanding of what the bars where called!...funny

Shooting star? in the heavens........im giggling to myself,its like another language......crazy.Man "know it all"....lol

Thanks Grimweasel for sharing your work im just so sorry that im that stupid.I look forward to your calls.......looks like its OHLC pizzas only.

No i dont use M.As at all.I was talking about the time frame S/R levels;
D=yellow W=green ect

p.s. Why does the BoJ have to be "tentative" with there shizzer...bloomberg is sssooo **ap......Man there pushing the recovery thing over and over...
  • #599
  • Edited 8:34pm Mar 17, 2009 8:17pm | Edited 8:34pm
USD/CAD
My huston with the "beob"

Im into the CAD at the moment cause i got my eye on cad jpy long counter trend Pin IB combos on both D and BOSS bar charts.

Its friend the CAD is obviously of interest.

Because of where it is in relation to the swing from 2002 down to oct 2007 its back up at the 50% so i want a nice BOSS bar to get me thinking.

This is why i like CAD JPY more..BOSS BARS....g
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  • #600
  • Mar 17, 2009 8:48pm Mar 17, 2009 8:48pm
Here are where I see opportunities as of 6:37pm PST (added for Wheelz!)

AUDUSD - retrace expected - watch where it goes and what it does - if it is a higher low - buy - this is confirming the immediate uptrend - BUT - if it doesn't hold - then?

CHFJPY - look for it to hit resistance and bounce back down

EURGBP - watch what happens as it hits resistance (again) - this pair is bullish

EURJPY - keeps on going up and up

EURUSD - same comments as Oz$

GBPCHF - bouncing off resistance but the 20 is holding him up

GBPJPY - caught between BOSS 20 and 20 - but looking bearish

GBPUSD - back in the trend

USDCAD - looking for support to have yet another go at all that resistance

USDCHF - trying to gather momentum for a push North (watch out Alaska!)

USDJPY - having another go at head banging with resistance - stay out until it reveals itself

Hope this helps someone - don't forget I get it wrong many times so ALWAYS think HOW MUCH YOU WILL LOSE BEFORE taking any trade.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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