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FOZZY Method CROSSES

  • #61
  • Apr 2, 2007 4:14am Apr 2, 2007 4:14am
Quoting geneticsjms
What other factors do the more experienced and successful traders consider while performing "discretion" as it seems that the technicals of this system are hard to beat and the trick lay in picking the winnersJMS
Great question, JMS.

Quite a few have posted their Fozzy variations, but true discretion is very hard to define, because ultimately it comes down to "feel", which is anathema to the true, mechanical trader (and also negative to the P&L of most traders). For me, my discretion comes down to whether I like what I see on the chart or not. If all my personal filters say "Yes" to a trade, it is unusual that I will not take it. However, I will occasionally take a trade that does not conform : this Monday morning, there were a number of possible trades & I felt uncomfortable with all except one, which barely fit any of my parameters : long GBPJPY. Nevertheless, something about the chart said "Buy", so I am long from 232.10 (first profit target at 232.89). Let's see.

J.
  • #62
  • Apr 2, 2007 5:05am Apr 2, 2007 5:05am
G'day JMS,

Grea idea on the list. I have something similar, but I may have to put it clearly on paper and place it next to my screen.

Quoting geneticsjms
-did the willf cross occur?
-weekly/monthly trend
-any big news coming up within the week that could drastically affect price
-range or trend
-support/resistance levels
-factor that caused signal (big news that day?), any chance for a strong retrace that would stop trade
-range of price on day cross was triggered, the bigger they are the higher the chance of some retrace.
As previously stated, I think these last 2 are of primary importance. And, like you, I always consider overall trend but there are pips to be made in the shorter-term retrace crosses (2-5 days) of a trend. I think it's important not to expect to get 100+ pips on a bearish retrace of an overall bullish trend (and vice versa). Be happy with 20-40 pips, bank them and move on. If you look back at any chart you'll see small retraces happening all the time. And many of those times they are valid Fozzy crosses.

Just my noob observations...

Cheers,
Art...
  • #63
  • Apr 2, 2007 5:44am Apr 2, 2007 5:44am
G'day J,

Quoting jtrade
Quite a few have posted their Fozzy variations, but true discretion is very hard to define, because ultimately it comes down to "feel", which is anathema to the true, mechanical trader (and also negative to the P&L of most traders). For me, my discretion comes down to whether I like what I see on the chart or not. If all my personal filters say "Yes" to a trade, it is unusual that I will not take it. However, I will occasionally take a trade that does not conform : this Monday morning, there were a number of possible trades & I felt uncomfortable with all except one, which barely fit any of my parameters : long GBPJPY. Nevertheless, something about the chart said "Buy", so I am long from 232.10 (first profit target at 232.89). Let's see.
Excellent, excellent post. This is something I struggle with at times, and I'm sure most noobs do too. Some people wait until every checkbox is ticked. And sometimes the trade still goes against you. I think it's all about how familiar you are with the method you are trading and how that method has behaved historically. You have to know your system intimately, or the markets will own you.

Cheers,
Art...
  • #64
  • Apr 2, 2007 5:50am Apr 2, 2007 5:50am
Quoting BeachBum
Chasing? Who's chasing?.....................

I agree, it often seems that way. My suggestion: The original thread for posting technical information ONLY. Discuss "crosses" and trades here. And allow Art to discuss HIS trade activity in HIS thread with our posts being limited to observations that are appropriate or direct answers to HIS questions about what HE is doing? (afterall it IS Art's thread) How's that?.......

Sounds perfect to me. I will do exactly that
  • #65
  • Apr 2, 2007 9:20am Apr 2, 2007 9:20am
Quoting jtrade
Great question, JMS.

Quite a few have posted their Fozzy variations, but true discretion is very hard to define, because ultimately it comes down to "feel", which is anathema to the true, mechanical trader (and also negative to the P&L of most traders). For me, my discretion comes down to whether I like what I see on the chart or not. If all my personal filters say "Yes" to a trade, it is unusual that I will not take it. However, I will occasionally take a trade that does not conform : this Monday morning, there were a number of possible trades & I felt uncomfortable with all except one, which barely fit any of my parameters : long GBPJPY. Nevertheless, something about the chart said "Buy", so I am long from 232.10 (first profit target at 232.89). Let's see.

J.
Quoting Artamon
G'day JMS,

Grea idea on the list. I have something similar, but I may have to put it clearly on paper and place it next to my screen.


As previously stated, I think these last 2 are of primary importance. And, like you, I always consider overall trend but there are pips to be made in the shorter-term retrace crosses (2-5 days) of a trend. I think it's important not to expect to get 100+ pips on a bearish retrace of an overall bullish trend (and vice versa). Be happy with 20-40 pips, bank them and move on. If you look back at any chart you'll see small retraces happening all the time. And many of those times they are valid Fozzy crosses.

Just my noob observations...

Cheers,
Art...
Let me add my personal "Amen" to these comments!

We cannot say enough about "faithfully" trading a system!

((jtrade: The GBP/JPY looks very good!))
  • #66
  • Apr 2, 2007 12:12pm Apr 2, 2007 12:12pm
Quoting geneticsjms
Anyone notice the EUR/USD possible buy forming today but its just seems to overall high already. Wondering what others think?

Also, i have a question. Im making a list for myself on the factors to consider before committing to each trade so far ive got

-did the willf cross occur?
-weekly/monthly trend
-any big news coming up within the week that could drastically affect price
-range or trend
-support/resistance levels
-factor that caused signal (big news that day?), any chance for a strong retrace that would stop trade
-range of price on day cross was triggered, the bigger they are the higher the chance of some retrace.

These are just some of the things that I currently consider before pressing the trade button. What other factors do the more experienced and successful traders consider while performing "discretion" as it seems that the technicals of this system are hard to beat and the trick lay in picking the winners

any feedback would be great

Cheers,

JMS

All of these are valid points but just make sure you don't talk yourself out of a potentially good trade.

The market will do what it wants. All you can do is use fozzy (or any system) to gain an edge.

Backtest your setup and see what results you get. You will probably see lots of potential but you never take into account a lot of the points you listed above. So why take them into account now?
  • #67
  • Apr 2, 2007 1:22pm Apr 2, 2007 1:22pm
I am new to this fozzy system and i would like to know if there is a valid cross on UCAD today and if anyone else is going to trade it. I would really appreciate if someone can shed some light on this USD/CAD trade
  • #68
  • Apr 2, 2007 2:59pm Apr 2, 2007 2:59pm
The usd/cad cross does look possible and according to the rules, crossing up under the middle of the bollinger. If the cross is confirmed at 0:00 GMT I'll be in it.
  • #69
  • Apr 2, 2007 4:42pm Apr 2, 2007 4:42pm
G'day all,

With still a few hours til end of bar (on IBFX at least) the USDCAD and EURCAD appear to be possible LONG Fozzy trades, if the crosses remain.

Cheers,
Art...
  • #70
  • Edited 6:10pm Apr 2, 2007 5:55pm | Edited 6:10pm
thanks everyon for the insight it was helpful intrying to get "into" the flow of trading.

cheers,

jms

P.S is anyone else using the demo on metatrader through Mig-Fx, i think im getting the dreaded sunday bar.
  • #71
  • Apr 2, 2007 8:12pm Apr 2, 2007 8:12pm
Hi all,

Can anyone confirm - it seems like a lot of crosses happened and not a lot of discussion (I'm on FXDD):

Willf Approved:
- Short USDCHF
- Short EURGBP
- Long EURJPY
- Long GBPJPY

Strict Fozzy:
- Short USDCHF
- Long USDCAD
- Long EURCAD
- Short CADJPY

Not sure if I'm seeing things...
Also I choose not to include AUDUSD since it's at such a high point and the last candle was 100 pips in height even though the ATR(10) is 63 (a little discretion here vs. the above I looked at).
Thanks!
  • #72
  • Apr 2, 2007 8:17pm Apr 2, 2007 8:17pm
My first time with fozzy and i took UCAD long lets see how it goes
  • #73
  • Apr 2, 2007 8:29pm Apr 2, 2007 8:29pm
Quoting mikep
Hi all,

Can anyone confirm - it seems like a lot of crosses happened and not a lot of discussion (I'm on FXDD):

Willf Approved:
- Short USDCHF
- Short EURGBP
- Long EURJPY
- Long GBPJPY

Strict Fozzy:
- Short USDCHF
- Long USDCAD
- Long EURCAD
- Short CADJPY

Not sure if I'm seeing things...
Also I choose not to include AUDUSD since it's at such a high point and the last candle was 100 pips in height even though the ATR(10) is 63 (a little discretion here vs. the above I looked at).
Thanks!
Willf approved - I think I will be the judge of that

Short USDCHF
No cross on my platform.

Short EURGBP
This cross happened 2 bars previous - but I was long from the bar 3 days previous.

Long EURJPY
This cross happened 3 bars previous.

Long GBPJPY
This cross happened 3 bars previous.

Correct on AUDUSD. Too high for my liking at the moment.
  • #74
  • Apr 2, 2007 8:39pm Apr 2, 2007 8:39pm
I have searched from all the fozzy threads as much as i could but i have still not been able to read all the 200+ pages so if anyone here could answer my question i would really appreciate it...

What is the TP method people here are using for fozzy can anyone guide me to one or few of them?

Also i have a UCAD long now does anyone else have this and what is their TP for this long?

Thanks in advance
  • #75
  • Apr 2, 2007 9:18pm Apr 2, 2007 9:18pm
This is NOT one of the better Fozzy performers; however, I think this trade will pay out eventually. But it may take days, be patient. First t/p = 35, second t/p = 70, third one with trailing stop. HTH!

Quoting jaree
I have searched from all the fozzy threads as much as i could but i have still not been able to read all the 200+ pages so if anyone here could answer my question i would really appreciate it...

What is the TP method people here are using for fozzy can anyone guide me to one or few of them?

Also i have a UCAD long now does anyone else have this and what is their TP for this long?

Thanks in advance
  • #76
  • Apr 2, 2007 9:21pm Apr 2, 2007 9:21pm
Quoting BeachBum
This is NOT one of the better Fozzy performers; however, I think this trade will pay out eventually. But it may take days, be patient. First t/p = 35, second t/p = 70, third one with trailing stop. HTH!
Thanks From this answer i have got another question if you dont mind answering. Which pairs did you find are good performers for daily fozzy method.
  • #77
  • Apr 2, 2007 9:21pm Apr 2, 2007 9:21pm
Quoting willf
Willf approved - I think I will be the judge of that
.......................................
  • #78
  • Apr 2, 2007 10:11pm Apr 2, 2007 10:11pm
Quoting willf
Willf approved - I think I will be the judge of that
.

Okay - I deserved that one.

Didn't mean to sound pretentious - was shorter than writing "From what I believe and understand from willf's variation..."

Willf - from what I've read, you seem pretty good natured so hopefully no offense was taken.

Thanks for your input. My demo IBFX seems to still show valid crosses (for today's trades) on the ones you identified as crosses on earlier bars. I have to re-install mt4 for my live IBFX account but besides that still seems okay (from what I believe and understand....) - hmmm, wierd.
  • #79
  • Apr 3, 2007 8:05am Apr 3, 2007 8:05am
Sorry jaree, I'm not going to try and answer this question because my opinion of the best pairs to Fozzy trade might send you down the wrong path. Research and experience will tell you what works best for you and your trading style; there's no substitute for that. Be patient, take your time and develop your own Fozzy based method. (CAD/JPY has earned me the most Fozzy pips).

Quoting jaree
Thanks From this answer i have got another question if you dont mind answering. Which pairs did you find are good performers for daily fozzy method.
  • #80
  • Apr 3, 2007 8:18am Apr 3, 2007 8:18am
Quoting jtrade
long GBPJPY. Nevertheless, something about the chart said "Buy", so I am long from 232.10 (first profit target at 232.89). Let's see.
Well, I'm trailed out of this trade for +79 +215 +239 for +533 on the 3-lot trade, which is not too shabby for a couple of days work... and yet... I am looking at my screen thinking "This chart is still long !" .

Maybe this pair will now reverse; maybe it will go another few hundred pips, but the message to me is clear : the whole point of trading 3 lots, which I do with all forex trading (account-size permitting) is to let that last contract run. You can't do this unless you give it a LOT of room, ie. are willing to endure a lot of giveback on the trade. I am going to study this more, because surfing the really big trades is something I defintely want to do.

Food for thought .

J.
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