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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,141
  • Mar 16, 2009 7:03pm Mar 16, 2009 7:03pm
Hey everyone...I'm on travel again this week and won't be back until Thursday evening I believe. Looking forward to being back next week. Still new faces coming in which is good. More info can be found at http://www.fxtradeblog.com

saka:

I was wondering about you, glad to see you back.

neilbuc: Good to see you stopping by as well

Welshguy is going to be staying about 3 miles away from me on his vacation but I might miss him. To bad, I'd like to meet a fellow trader. Still a chance if I get back early.

Again, see you guys next week...
  • #19,142
  • Mar 16, 2009 9:03pm Mar 16, 2009 9:03pm
Quoting neilbuc
Chaps/Ladies. Been away for a while. Having a forex rest so to speak and selling stuff on ebay. Hey, the loft needing clearing out. Made £600!!!

Anyhoo. Was looking at GBPUSD last night as it opened and took on the gap close trade. It open right on the 21ema so decided it was worth the risk. I also had the 11th Mar as a completed W.2 just for info.

Took half off after 70pips. Rest letting run with manual trailing stop. Target the orange daily [email protected].

Good Luck.
Neilbuc, the price has broken through the 89sma and pulled back to it as per the rules. It has moved as predicted by Time1300 on Thursday. Would this be a high probability trade to take the bounce off the 89sma and go long using the 200sma as a target? If not please let me know what I am not understanding.

Thanks
  • #19,143
  • Mar 16, 2009 9:44pm Mar 16, 2009 9:44pm
Quoting neilbuc
Have you demo traded an account yet? I would not even bother going near a Live account until you have demo traded for at least 6 months and been succesful. Otherwise your 90% likely to lose your money.

That said Alpari offer micro accounts.I used them and have had no problems for a couple of years. They also offer demo accounts.

Good Luck.
I am still to new to trade real money but I want to get an idea on where to go. This way I can open a practice account there.

Thanks for the advise and help.
  • #19,144
  • Mar 17, 2009 5:49am Mar 17, 2009 5:49am
Quoting fishmen
Hi orange,

How do u draw this fibo?
Hi fishmen...

Sorry for the late reply...busy busy busy...

See my d1 below okay?

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,145
  • Mar 17, 2009 6:16am Mar 17, 2009 6:16am
Hi all...

I give it a try for this one...using h1 entry

Entry is made after the MORNING STAR pattern (see PINK circle) is formed in h1.

Entry @ 0.6601
SL @ 0.6551 (50pips from entry = 6pips below 21ema)
No TP decided yet.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,146
  • Mar 17, 2009 6:23am Mar 17, 2009 6:23am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...

I give it a try for this one...using h1 entry

Entry is made after the MORNING STAR pattern (see PINK circle) is formed in h1.

Entry @ 0.6601
SL @ 0.6551 (50pips from entry = 6pips below 21ema)
No TP decided yet.
Okay...

Setting my TP @ 0.6641 (5pips below fib 50%). Also might make another entry if things look good later.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,147
  • Mar 17, 2009 6:58am Mar 17, 2009 6:58am
Quoting Pipdance
Neilbuc, the price has broken through the 89sma and pulled back to it as per the rules. It has moved as predicted by Time1300 on Thursday. Would this be a high probability trade to take the bounce off the 89sma and go long using the 200sma as a target? If not please let me know what I am not understanding.

Thanks
I always trade very carefully when the price is between the 89 and 200 moving averages. Phillip mentioned a while ago to be careful when the price is inbetween.

My trade was based on the following:
1) Higher lows since the Mar 11th
2)Price broke and closed above 21ema mar 12th (Alerts me for a run back to the 89sma after a pull back)
3)Mar 13th Price pulls back to 21ema and bounces off it hard.
4)Mar 16/17th As market opens at 11pm GMT I notice it has gapped down and is at the 21ema. I take the odds on for a run back to 89sma.
5)I closed one unit for 70pips the other closed for +200 yesterday.

At the moment market is back to a point where the 89sma is providing resistance, and there is no clear and clean setup for me. It is also testing a 4H support line. I am watching just now and will become more intrested if and when the 21ema crosses over the 89sma like what happend on the 3/3/09-09/03/09.

Good Luck.
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  • #19,148
  • Edited 7:37am Mar 17, 2009 7:13am | Edited 7:37am
Got myself long on USDJPY again. Also got a buy order in wings too.

Using a Trailing 1 Bar High entry system. Was Stopped Out last night BE on the other unit from yesterday. It has been bouncing off the 21ema and had broken above the upper range. We'll see what happens. Probably better to have waited to see if it reached the 21ema, now I look at it.

I can watch live today so if it looks like its going wrong I will exit. If it gets down to 21ema the Forex Hound will be sniffing!!

edit : 12:36 (GMT) 1 Unit closed for 28pips. Rest at -27pips
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  • #19,149
  • Edited 10:35am Mar 17, 2009 7:23am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Okay...

Setting my TP @ 0.6641 (5pips below fib 50%). Also might make another entry if things look good later.
Re-enter @ 0.6600
SL & TP same with the first entry.

REASONS FOR LONG:-
1) Price closed above 8 & 365 on previous candle;
2) Long tail @ previous candle (See pink circle and green arrow). Maybe somebody is buying from below?;
3) 8 > 21 > 89 (basic lesson : strong uptrend); &
4) 8 & 365 EMA make a good support so far (referring to the previous candles behaviours/patterns)

I purposely TP @ 0.6641 as 89sma (d1) and fib 50% just above this TP area. Simply put, I play safe. Bad R:r though....

MACD is not considered when I made this entry. RISKY...!!!

Any questions/critics/opinions are most welcome...

p/s- might have lost in this trade..hmmmmm....

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,150
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:57am Mar 17, 2009 7:57am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Re-enter @ 0.6600
SL & TP same with the first entry.

REASONS FOR LONG:-
1) Price closed above 8 & 365 on previous candle;
2) Long tail @ previous candle (See pink cirlce and green arrow). Maybe somebody is buying from below?;
3) 8 > 21 > 89 (basic lesson : strong uptrend); &
4) 8 & 365 EMA make a good support so far (referring to the previous candles behaviours/patterns)

I purposely TP @ 0.6641 as 89sma (d1) and fib 50% just above this TP area. Simply...
I see what you mean about that daily resistance level at the 89sma. I think I would want to see a daily close above it, but thats just my cautious brain talking if we were looking at a swing trade.

Shorter time frame (1H) looks like its ready to break higher. ADX is crossing over as I type with 4 mins left for 1300 candle (GMT +1).

Good Luck.
  • #19,151
  • Mar 17, 2009 10:32am Mar 17, 2009 10:32am
Quoting neilbuc
I see what you mean about that daily resistance level at the 89sma. I think I would want to see a daily close above it, but thats just my cautious brain talking if we were looking at a swing trade.

Shorter time frame (1H) looks like its ready to break higher. ADX is crossing over as I type with 4 mins left for 1300 candle (GMT +1).

Good Luck.
neilbuc : thanks...

It seems that you are following my progress eh? Yeah..you got my point...see my d1 below...

As per h4, the price currently "resting" @ 365 and 8. Hopefully these levels are where they pause for a while before going up further...HOPEFULLY...!!!Or else my trades just now will be history.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,152
  • Mar 17, 2009 10:52am Mar 17, 2009 10:52am
hi orange,

for your post #19150. why you re enter again at the same price?
i mean you already enter at that 0.6601 for first trade.
i dont understand why make the second trade.

regards
jin
  • #19,153
  • Mar 17, 2009 10:53am Mar 17, 2009 10:53am
Quoting orangeRANGE
neilbuc : thanks...

It seems that you are following my progress eh? Yeah..you got my point...see my d1 below...

As per h4, the price currently "resting" @ 365 and 8. Hopefully these levels are where they pause for a while before going up further...HOPEFULLY...!!!Or else my trades just now will be history.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Seems to be stuck in a range of about 50-60pips just now on the hourly. Hope it breaks higher for you.

Still in my USDJPY trade. Moving slightly higher albeit slowly. There is a rate decision by BOJ later, so will probably either close or set to BE.
Cheers
Neil

edit: 50 Posts!!! Do I get a gold star? LoL
  • #19,154
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:07am Mar 17, 2009 11:07am
Quoting jinsen
hi orange,

for your post #19150. why you re enter again at the same price?
i mean you already enter at that 0.6601 for first trade.
i dont understand why make the second trade.

regards
jin
Hi jinsen...

I thought the price make a great rebounce @ 365 & 8 after the previous candle is a long tail morning star @ h4. I should have wait a lower rate before make that 2nd entry. But yeah...what the hell...wat done is done mate...

Just wait and see now if the rhythm still bias to the upside or not...
  • #19,155
  • Mar 17, 2009 11:32am Mar 17, 2009 11:32am
Quoting neilbuc
Got myself long on USDJPY again. Also got a buy order in wings too.

Using a Trailing 1 Bar High entry system. Was Stopped Out last night BE on the other unit from yesterday. It has been bouncing off the 21ema and had broken above the upper range. We'll see what happens. Probably better to have waited to see if it reached the 21ema, now I look at it.

I can watch live today so if it looks like its going wrong I will exit. If it gets down to 21ema the Forex Hound will be sniffing!!

edit : 12:36 (GMT) 1 Unit closed for 28pips. Rest at -27pips...
edit : 2nd unit closed for 10 pips as I am away for rest of evening. Plus there is a BOJ rate call later. As a rule I don't trade on Rate Decision Days. Will now wait till tomorrow to see whats happening.
  • #19,156
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:14pm Mar 17, 2009 7:14pm
I hope I am not a being a bother but I wanted to make sure I am not over complicating things and that I am still on track.

I am watching only the GBP/USD to keep from being distracted. This is what I am seeing at the moment:

The price has come off a head and shoulder formation into an uptrend.

This action appears to have formed a small channel. Within this channel the price has become hung up on the 89 sma and the trend line. Currently it is looking for direction.

This channel is an uptrend within a larger downtrend which is contained within a triangle. It appears we are range trading the pair between the outer support lines and there is still a lot of room.

Neilbuck said he would be interested only if the 21 ema crossed the 89 sma. I see what he means since the price has not passed the 89 sma with any athority.

All I can do at the moment is to wait and see what the price will do. If up then see if there is room to the 200 sma. If there is, and the move was strong enough, then go long. If the price breaks down look for a possible run to the lower support. Again look for some indication of strenght in movement. If this happen then go short.

One side note, is there an inverted head and shoulder forming?????

Are these assumption valid? If not what am I not taking into account?

Again Thanks for all the support through my learning curve!!!!!!! And sorry for the long posts!!!!!

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  • #19,157
  • Mar 18, 2009 2:49am Mar 18, 2009 2:49am

We are seeing a number of signs that the commodity currencies are getting set to make an aggressive rally. One very positive development is that commodity prices as represented by the CRB index have broken above the finaldowntrend resistance and are starting to develop upwardmomentum and this should support the currencies.
The Australian dollarhas broken above the downtrend resistance from the peak in September and also the more major peak in July. The Canadian dollar appears to be breaking above downtrend resistance from the peak
in late September as well, but has yet to get the surge that comes from breaking a significant level. Both of these are positive developments that argue the commodity currencies should move higher.

As we narrow the focus we find that Australian and Canadian dollars had very narrow trading days on Tuesday. The last time AUD had this tight a day was July 18 of last year, and the last time CAD had such a tight day was December 29 of last year – essentially a holiday. History shows that very tight ranges on days that aren’t holidays usually don’t continue for more than a day or two and then the currencies have a day with a range that is much larger than usual. Since the shorter cycles were calling for AUD and CAD weakness on Tuesday and the decline was almost non existent.

We would look for a big up day. As long as they avoid weakness early on Wednesday, these currencies should make a strong upmove.

We are in favor of buying AUD/USD now and selling USD/CAD once it is clear a downtrend is underway. Any USD strength seen into the middle of the North American trading on Wednesday should not reach resistance at 1.2765, and the USD should turn lower late in the day. A close below the support at 1.2660 confirms that a downtrend is underway. It will then fall to 1.2475 by the end of the week. There is a further low due during the week of March 30 and our target is the 1.2350 area. This weakness can last to the second half of April before a significant low is reached. AUD/USD should reach.6800 by month-end.
  • #19,158
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:00am Mar 18, 2009 3:00am
Hello everyone,

Sorry for being absent this past few days as I am very busy and I will try to post whenever I can but here is an example of how patience pays off to wait for such trends to establish themselves.
I entered on pullbacks and would at times let one or two lots ride and you can see where with the arrows where my entries where, (sometimes I would enter on the 1H to get an early entry before the close of the 4H candle.

I have since closed all my positions and will wait to see how things play out. My schedule has gotten much busier thus I am not in front of the computer as much as I like to and that is the great part of this method as it allows you to have a few glances during the day to see what the 4H is doing and from that, compiling a course of action.

Happy Pipin
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,159
  • Edited 3:53am Mar 18, 2009 3:14am | Edited 3:53am
Quoting time1300
Hello everyone,

Sorry for being absent this past few days as I am very busy and I will try to post whenever I can but here is an example of how patience pays off to wait for such trends to establish themselves.
I entered on pullbacks and would at times let one or two lots ride and you can see where with the arrows where my entries where, (sometimes I would enter on the 1H to get an early entry before the close of the 4H candle....

Hello time1300,
Thank you for posting the H4 chart, but i was just wondering if you could also post your entries on H1 chart so that i can learn more from you. Hope that you don't mind...
Thank you so much in advance...
  • #19,160
  • Mar 18, 2009 6:31am Mar 18, 2009 6:31am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...

I give it a try for this one...using h1 entry

Entry is made after the MORNING STAR pattern (see PINK circle) is formed in h1.

Entry @ 0.6601
SL @ 0.6551 (50pips from entry = 6pips below 21ema)
No TP decided yet.
Hi all...

I'm closing my 1st entry (0.6601) yesterday @ 0.6606 = 5pips gain only...

And...leaving my 2nd entry (0.6600) in open position with trailing stops 19 pips. New SL is now 0.6570 ( around 9 to 10pips below 21ema).

RIGHT NOW I AM ONLY RISKING 30PIPS FOR THIS ONE. Just trying to look for a free ride if the market is still favouring me...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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