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Great GBP/USD Strategy for Swing Trades

  • #221
  • Apr 2, 2007 11:12am Apr 2, 2007 11:12am
GBP/USD

I went long 3/30/07 12:00GMT at the close 1.9681 with a SL=50 for half units. 4/2/07 half units were sold for + 50 profit. SL was moved to BE. Now waiting for exit signal.
  • #222
  • Apr 2, 2007 2:36pm Apr 2, 2007 2:36pm
wasnt that a valid short at 4 pm gmt today, entry at 1.2135?
  • #223
  • Edited 3:05pm Apr 2, 2007 2:48pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting coolshades
wasnt that a valid short at 4 pm gmt today, entry at 1.2135?
My knowledge would say NO because at 4:00 GMT close, the ma 4 & 13 are both greater than the ma 50 in addition, on the daily chart the Stoch is > signal.
  • #224
  • Edited 9:51pm Apr 2, 2007 2:54pm | Edited 9:51pm
Anyone go long on the GBP/JPY at 3/30/07 8:00 GMT at 231.29? Currently at 232.95, what a nice ride and still rising...

NOte: the Daily chart rules did not comply for a buy.
  • #225
  • Apr 2, 2007 2:56pm Apr 2, 2007 2:56pm
on my charts, fxdd, there was a cross of 13 and 50 at candle of 4pm and 4 had crossed 50 earlier 2 candles back...vynner takes the candle as the cross is happening.. there is a post by vynner somewhere on this..


on the other entry.. dont the rules say there has to be a cross? and not just mas being less than or greater than one another...

also didnt get the point abt daily stochs.. the way i read post no 1, daily stochs : slow k has to be above or below slow d depending on short or long and thats it..

have i misread the rules?

thks..

and
Quoting jeffreytp
My knowledge would say NO because at 4:00 GMT close the ma 4 & 13 are both greater than the ma 50.

Entry strategy # 2 says to go short at 8:00GMT because the ma 4 <= ma 20 AND ma 13 <= ma 20 AND ma 4 < ma 13 AND at the time I beleive the daily Stoch is less than the signal. This is not a good trade though because the all the ma's are close together, resulting in a riskier trade. The rules say take it. discretion says pass.
  • #226
  • Apr 2, 2007 3:06pm Apr 2, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting coolshades
on my charts, fxdd, there was a cross of 13 and 50 at candle of 4pm and 4 had crossed 50 earlier 2 candles back...vynner takes the candle as the cross is happening.. there is a post by vynner somewhere on this..


on the other entry.. dont the rules say there has to be a cross? and not just mas being less than or greater than one another...

also didnt get the point abt daily stochs.. the way i read post no 1, daily stochs : slow k has to be above or below slow d depending on short or long and thats it..

have i misread the rules?

thks..

and
I just corrected my post. On my daily chart I had 2 instead of 5 for the "Slowing" parameter.
  • #227
  • Apr 2, 2007 3:17pm Apr 2, 2007 3:17pm
In order to comply with MT4 "labels" I suggest you change the verbage on post # 1 from:

For Filter look at Daily chart
Valid Long Entry:
Slow %K above Slow %D on the Daily Chart
Valid Short Entry:
Slow %D above Slow %K on the Daily Chart

To:

For Filter look at Daily chart
Valid Long Entry:
Stoch (13,5,5) above Signal on the Daily Chart
Valid Short Entry:
Stoch (13,5,5) below Signal on the Daily Chart

Attached Image
  • #228
  • Apr 3, 2007 12:52am Apr 3, 2007 12:52am
Quoting mcdonnellc
dear vynner ,
you say you went long on cable . but the 4 ema didnt cross the 50 ema because it never went under it .is that what you would still call a valid trade ? i see that it has gone sky high anyway . im just trying to get the peramiters of this system precisely correct .and you say that you nearly had a trade last friday . which one was that , was it cable short ?
Dear McDonnellc,

I have mentioned that this swing trade setup has not formed yet.
The reason i went long is based on other tools.

VyNNeR
  • #229
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:20am Apr 3, 2007 3:20am
Vynner,

Since, you've been trading your swing trading system, for the gbp/usd, have you had any loosing month? Secondly, if you haven't had a loosing month, has any month been below 150 pips? Thanks...hilton

Quoting VyNNeR
Dear McDonnellc,

I have mentioned that this swing trade setup has not formed yet.
The reason i went long is based on other tools.

VyNNeR
  • #230
  • Apr 3, 2007 7:03am Apr 3, 2007 7:03am
Quoting VyNNeR
Dear all traders,

We nearly had a trade last Friday.
Well we should be patience enough to wait for it to form

VyNNeR
WHY ITS ONLY NEARLY ? CAN U TELL US >?

THANKS
  • #231
  • Apr 3, 2007 1:40pm Apr 3, 2007 1:40pm
happy,

on March 30th, the 4 and 13 EMA's crossed but the 13ema didn't cross the 50ema. Matter of fact, the mkt skyrocketed and went in the opposite direction.

But, rest assured, either this week, or next week, we'll get our trade in. I would imagine that there's 2 trades per month that gives off at least 100 pips. February gave off 3 trades. The first trade was a small loss of a max of 30 pips if you would have stayed in that long. The second and third trades of February were at least 100 pips profit if you were going for 100 pips only, like I only do.

For March, there were only two trades and both were good for 100 pips or more each...

So, I can already see that a person can double there account every single month just off of two trades per month...

hilton

Quoting happyliving
WHY ITS ONLY NEARLY ? CAN U TELL US >?

THANKS
  • #232
  • Apr 3, 2007 5:47pm Apr 3, 2007 5:47pm
but on my chart they did crossed 50ema that's why i so confused about it.....dont know how to post pic here.......
  • #233
  • Apr 3, 2007 6:19pm Apr 3, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting currencytrader
happy,

on March 30th, the 4 and 13 EMA's crossed but the 13ema didn't cross the 50ema. Matter of fact, the mkt skyrocketed and went in the opposite direction.

hilton
here is the pic
Attached Image
  • #234
  • Apr 3, 2007 6:40pm Apr 3, 2007 6:40pm
Perhaps you need to double check your EMA settings because my charts don't have the 50 being crossed either.
  • #235
  • Apr 5, 2007 12:49am Apr 5, 2007 12:49am
Vynner,

One reason why I like the 4hr swing trade is because it only gives out 2 or 3 trades per month and allows me to double my account monthly from what I can see. Now, you started in June 2006 and it's been almost a year now. I have witnessed, myself, between the months of February and March of 2007 that a person would have been able to have gotten(with 100 pips on each trade as a goal to hit) at least 150 pips for both February and 150 pips minimum for March.

Now, from October of 2006 through January of 2007, I would have imagined that with your swing trading system, a person would have been able to get at least(once again with a goal of hitting 100 pips per trade) 150 pips on each of those months(October 2006-January of 2007).

The other thing I like about trading the swing trade is that it has happened(the signal to both get in and out of a trade) 100% of the time during the european session, which is quite an eye opener. It is 100% possible to spend less than 20 minutes, per month, to see if a signal has happened or not.

Question: Has there been any month whereby you've gotten less than 150 pips in a month using this swing trading method?

thanks,

hilton
  • #236
  • Apr 5, 2007 7:18am Apr 5, 2007 7:18am
Folks,

Well, according to Vynner...it looks like a good trade is about to come up. And, it's about time..hehe..

The trade should occur at some point next week in which it will be my first trade. I'm going for only 100 pips. If this trade occurs next week, there should be a second trade this month and just MAYBE a 3rd trade. But, I could on doing two profitable trades per month no matter what...

peace,

hilton
  • #237
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:37am Apr 5, 2007 10:37am
Quoting currencytrader
Vynner,

One reason why I like the 4hr swing trade is because it only gives out 2 or 3 trades per month and allows me to double my account monthly from what I can see. Now, you started in June 2006 and it's been almost a year now. I have witnessed, myself, between the months of February and March of 2007 that a person would have been able to have gotten(with 100 pips on each trade as a goal to hit) at least 150 pips for both February and 150 pips minimum for March.

Now, from October of 2006 through January of 2007, I would have imagined that with your swing trading system, a person would have been able to get at least(once again with a goal of hitting 100 pips per trade) 150 pips on each of those months(October 2006-January of 2007).

The other thing I like about trading the swing trade is that it has happened(the signal to both get in and out of a trade) 100% of the time during the european session, which is quite an eye opener. It is 100% possible to spend less than 20 minutes, per month, to see if a signal has happened or not.

Question: Has there been any month whereby you've gotten less than 150 pips in a month using this swing trading method?

thanks,

hilton

Did you account for drawdown? You're going to have some losing trades. Even if you have a SL there will be some losses, but longterm, you'll be ahead.

My next task is to look at GBP/JPY. I already know the PIP gains are CRAZY http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif, but I have to examine the drawndown risk...
  • #238
  • Apr 5, 2007 10:48am Apr 5, 2007 10:48am
AFAIK This system can easily be automated. One could do that to see the results in backtesting and easily test the system on other pairs, too.
  • #239
  • Apr 5, 2007 11:15am Apr 5, 2007 11:15am
Will you be creating an EA for this system?
Believe and Achieve!
  • #240
  • Apr 5, 2007 2:12pm Apr 5, 2007 2:12pm
Yes, looks like another trade is fast approaching. I'm guessing tomorrow's data will be what determines if this sets up or not.

I did some bactesting (just eyeballing trades based on the crosses) and came up with approx 1558 pips to date, about 300 per month, starting with Nov. I had 16 trades, 5 losing trades at -50 pips each. Looks promising!
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