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temporary s/r approach

  • #21
  • Edited 12:57pm Mar 16, 2009 10:26am | Edited 12:57pm
15:00 gmt candle has closed and offers highs and lows

high:1,3070
low: 1,2981

macd at 15:00gmt candle close says

sma8 slopes down=short
sma8 below 0=short
sma1 below 0=short
sma1 slopes up=long

3 orders short, each 0,09 lots - 1,2979 sl 1,2994 tp 1,2957
1 order long, 0,09 lots - 1,3072 sl 1,3057 tp 1,3094

I added 2 pips to the tp because of the spread

sl remains as such, it is pretty tight already

open orders will be closed tomorrow around 9:00 gmt


edit:

at close of 15:45 gmt candle the chart presents a new high at 1,3024

I change the long order to 1,3026 sl 1,3011, tp 1,3048


the 3 short have already been triggered and hit sl

account balance $507


edit:

long order has been triggered and stopped out. rangemove

acount balance $494
Attached Images
  • #22
  • Mar 16, 2009 1:21pm Mar 16, 2009 1:21pm
Hi,

I opened 3 orders at 9 GMT today. They all hit TP. I did not open a fourth order, because the 1sma did not slope up or down.

So far so good. I did not test this at 15 GMT, but I will try it tomorrow.

Regards

Archie
  • #23
  • Mar 17, 2009 4:16am Mar 17, 2009 4:16am
9:15 gmt candle has closed

macd has not touched either 0.00100 or - 0.00100 line for more than 3h = no orders

see what 15:00 gmt will offer
Attached Image
  • #24
  • Edited Mar 18, 2009 3:52am Mar 17, 2009 11:08am | Edited Mar 18, 2009 3:52am
at close of 15:45 gmt candle highs and lows seem to be confirmed

macd
sma8 sloping up=long
sma8 below 0= short
sma1 sloping up= long
sma1 below 0 = short

2 orders long, 0,08 lots each 1.2984 , sl 1,2969, tp 1,3006
2 orders short, 0.08 lots each 1,2945, sl 1,2960, tp 1,2923

open orders will close next day around 9:00 gmt


edit 8:50 gmt, next day:

long orders have been triggered to tp
short orders have just been cancelled

account balance $525
Attached Image
  • #25
  • Edited 4:16am Mar 18, 2009 4:03am | Edited 4:16am
macd indicates 4 shorts

a bit akward because just at close of 8:45 candle has the indicator 1sma touched -0,00100 level and I don't wait until 9:00 gmt candle close not to miss a potential trade

anyway

four short orders, 0,09 lots each - 1,2991, sl 1,3006, tp 1,2969

edit:

it took less that 15 min to stopme out

i shoul have waited until 9:00 candle close like this approach states

acount balance $465
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd18.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #26
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:22am Mar 18, 2009 4:22am
Quoting ashes
macd indicates 4 shorts

a bit akward because just at close of 8:45 candle has the indicator 1sma touched -0,00100 level and I don't wait until 9:00 gmt candle close not to miss a potential trade

anyway

four short orders, 0,09 lots each - 1,2991, sl 1,3006, tp 1,2969

edit:

it took less that 15 min to stopme out

i shoul have waited until 9:00 candle close like this approach states

acount balance $465
It doesn't state that, as far as I can tell.

Quote
Look at chart at 9:00 gmt, 1h after european market open and 16:00 gmt, 2h after us market open or 1h after major us newsrelease, 15 min tf

draw a vertical line at these times, mark the previous zigzag highs and lows with a horizontal line

consider the horizontal lines temporary support and resistance levels

place buy order at high, place sell order at low, sl 15, tp 20
9:00 GMT is the open of the 0900 GMT bar, not the close of it.
  • #27
  • Edited 10:12am Mar 18, 2009 4:32am | Edited 10:12am
ok, previous post shows how not to do it

that's why forwardtesting is important

wait until 9:00 gmt candle close

now after 9:00 candle close and at 9:45 candle close
I have a confirmed high and a probably confirmed low

macd at 9:00 gmt candle close indicates

3 short
1 long

3 short orders, 0,08 lots each 1,2985, sl 1,3000, tp 1,2963
1 long order, 0,08 lots 1,3022, sl 1,3007, tp 1,3044

edit:
long order has been triggered to tp
short orders cancelled at 12:00

account balance $483
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd18.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #28
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:33am Mar 18, 2009 4:33am
Hi ashes,

I think, the sl of 15 pips is to small for the present volatility. I'm a friend of breakouts. I use to set the trend follow indicators:
THV Trix and THV MTF Trix Histo.

Cheers Swakop

(Sorry for my poor english, but my german is perfect)
  • #29
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:37am Mar 18, 2009 4:37am
hi billbss,

thank you for your comments.

yes, you are right, the posted rules don't say to wait until 9:00 candle close.

maybe that's what the forwardtesting is there for, to define rules one can be certain to deal with

Regards
  • #30
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:37am Mar 18, 2009 4:37am
I'm looking only for a long entry.
  • #31
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:45am Mar 18, 2009 4:45am
Quoting swakop
Hi ashes,

I think, the sl of 15 pips is to small for the present volatility. I'm a friend of breakouts. I use to set the trend follow indicators:
THV Trix and THV MTF Trix Histo.

Cheers Swakop

(Sorry for my poor english, but my german is perfect)
Hi swakop,

yes, the sl15 is pretty small, so is the tp20. that's the idea of this approach to scalp the few pips or lose them. Whitout the applied moneymanagement the monthly $ outcome would be relatively small.
Thank you for the hint about the indicators. I will check them out,

no prob with your english, ... german would work for me too.

Regards
  • #32
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:10am Mar 18, 2009 5:10am
Here some charts as examples.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 18.03.2009.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 18.03.2009 1.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 18.03.2009 2.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #33
  • Mar 18, 2009 10:14am Mar 18, 2009 10:14am
Quoting swakop
Here some charts as examples.
thank you for the examples, i have come across the thv, but appeared to me as too indicator overloaded ... maybe I should give it a try nevertheless

Regards
  • #34
  • Edited 11:15am Mar 18, 2009 10:26am | Edited 11:15am
at close of 15:00 candle macd indicates 2 long and 2 short

the high seems to be confirmed by zigzag, whereas the low just shows by the Barry Support and resistance indicator.

2 long orders, 0,08 lots each 1,3158 sl 1,3143 tp 1,3180
2 short orders, 0,08 lots each 1,3111 sl 1,3126 tp 1,3089

not 100% by the rules because I'm referring he short order to the Barry indicator

edit:

to stay with the zzmacd without the s/r indicator I have placed at 16:00 candle close another set of short orders since the zigzag has finally shown a low

2 short orders, 0,08 lots each 1,3085, sl 1,3100, tp 1,3063
  • #35
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:43am Mar 19, 2009 3:43am
yesterdays skyrocket has not provided profit on the long orders, the opposite is the case. due to high slippage the account made a huge loss, and the actual balance is $210. That's a serious drawdown. I have not cancelled the orders before FOMC statement.
  • #36
  • Edited 4:49am Mar 19, 2009 4:31am | Edited 4:49am
at the close of 9:00 gmt candle macd indicates 3 longs and 1 short

I have already placed

3 long orders, 0,04 lots each 1,3512 sl 1,3497 tp 1,3534

looks like we have a confirmed low

1 short order, 0,04 lots 1,3455 sl 1,3470 to 1,3433

open orders will be closed at 12:00gmt
Attached Image
  • #37
  • Mar 19, 2009 11:17am Mar 19, 2009 11:17am
I guess at close of 16:00 candle we have finally a high and low

macd indicates at close of 15:00

3 long
1 short

3 long, 0,03 lots each at 1,3739
1 short, 0,03 lots at 1,3622

sl and tp as usual.
  • #38
  • Edited Mar 23, 2009 7:47am Mar 22, 2009 3:38pm | Edited Mar 23, 2009 7:47am
I will continue my forwardtests with a fresh $1000 demo account with oanda because their slippage seems to be more under control. since this broker uses a 50:1 leverage the magic number applied to the moneymanagement formula will be 10000. that means that the increase of the account balance will be about 3 times smaller than my backtest calculations with the 400:1 broker have shown.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/forex_tradi..._spreads.shtml
  • #39
  • Edited 10:24am Mar 23, 2009 5:33am | Edited 10:24am
3 orders short, 0,05 lots each at 1,3619, 1 order long, 0,05 lots at 1,3738

orders cancelled 1h before us session open .. no trades
  • #40
  • Mar 23, 2009 7:48am Mar 23, 2009 7:48am
It was a nice short move, but you should take 2R profit.

Cheers Swakop
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