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  • #481
  • Mar 16, 2009 4:21am Mar 16, 2009 4:21am
Quoting strat
My plan for this thread was to lay it out in a logical and organised manner so that it would be easy to progress from the beginning of the posts to the end.

Unfortunately, my answers to the many PMs and posts have now made that impossible.

If there is anyone out there with good organisational skills, I think it would be very beneficial to have a word document laid out with an Index, containing copies of the relevant posts. This needs to be a dynamic document posted as a "sticky" and kept current with new posts.

Anyone up to it? I can't do...
I'm not crash hot on that sought of stuff but would be more than willing to give a hand.

Do you mean something like that index on James16 that has links to relevant posts under a series of major headings?

Or are you contemplating a full blown word document? You would have to edit it fairly drastically otherwise it would end up huge.
  • #482
  • Mar 16, 2009 4:42am Mar 16, 2009 4:42am
Quoting strat
Oh dear, how very disappointing!

I wrote this to PROVOKE A REACTION and as a test to measure how you lot were doing.

So no reaction tells me:

Nobody is reading
Nobody is understanding
Nobody has progressed to the level I was hoping for
Nobody cares
You are just following like sheep

Although there are a few things wrong with my statement, there is a HUGE problem.

Now that I've brought it to your attention (again), who can spot it?

Baba G - you are not allowed to answer on here but you can PM me if you wish

Rock n Roll,
Strat
I have finally made the time to answer this. Thank you to everyone who participated - at least you had a go - not like the lurkers and guys in the background who think they know it all - you know who you are!

Attached is a later chart so let's get into it. I wrote something like I hope everyone had their sell stop in place at 97.52 I think it was. Then I later wrote that there was a HUGE PROBLEM with it.

So let us start there.
The first thing, after identifying a trade MUST ALWAYS BE - WHAT IS MY RISK? Remember my earlier posts about millionaire and professional traders? The ONLY thing they care about is how much they can LOSE. Amateurs and all other traders think just the opposite - how much can they make.

When professionals PLAN THE TRADE, the very first thing that goes down on their sheet of paper is HOW MUCH WILL I LOSE? Their whole plan is predicated around LOSING. If they are not comfortable with the amount they WILL LOSE, they will either reduce their positions (lower $ per pip) or NOT TAKE THE TRADE. They don't concern themselves with winning because they are successful traders, know it's all about probability, and will come out winners in the end (total number of trades).

When they are comfortable with HOW MUCH THEY WILL LOSE, they go ahead and place the trade. This IMMEDIATELY takes all decisions and emotions away from you on this trade leaving you with a STRESS FREE TRADE. You then TRADE THE PLAN by letting the market either (i) take you out (stop loss hit) or (ii) put you in profit. Once in profit, your plan should tell you when to take profits, go to break even etc. It may not have hard numbers but just something like take profit at 50 pips on the first contract, bring rest to break even at 100 pips or take profits at first S&R, second S&R etc.

If you feel the need to interfere with your Plan then you have not planned it correctly. Once in a trade with a plan - just let it go and do it's thing! If you plan it correctly, those demons, goblins, voices inside your head, man in the mirror no longer have a base on which to trick you on.

So back to this trade. If you had a sell stop in place below the 97.52 support line, say 97.42, did you measure your RISK? Where did your SL go on such a move? If you did it correctly, your SL should have gone ABOVE THE SWING HIGH at say 99.23. That is a 181 pip SL! That is HUGE!

Would you have been prepared to LOSE 181 pips? That is the FIRST question you should have asked yourself. If not, then either adjust your $/pip or do not take the trade.

Now for those who are going to tell me they dropped down to H4 to identify a smaller SL, then at that point, they were no longer trading the Daily. You cannot trade a time frame with a shorter time frame's S&R. There are 6 H4 price bars within one Daily price bar and if you set a SL from H4 then it would be hit within that Daily price bar.

If we managed our trade correctly, we should have taken profit when it hit support again at around 96.20, so we did make 132 pips. For those who do the Risk to Reward ratio, this was lousy.

Now that huge down bar was not the normal range for this pair and we should expect the elastic band theory to take place after it completed. If you are not familiar with the elstic band theory, take the elastic waist band in your under pants or knickers and pull it out as far as it will go. Then let it go! This is also true for the distance price is away from the 20 - the further it is away, the more likely the elastic will pull it back.

That being the case and since we all know what to do when price hits support, it provided another magic trade PROVIDING you knew where to put your SL. If you did know where to put your SL then you are back at the beginning of this post because it is another HUGE SL

So, since no-one came even close to this, tells me you are all acting like rank amateurs.

You will NEVER make serious money at this UNTIL you turn your logic upside down, forget about profit and CONCENTRATE on HOW MUCH YOU CAN LOSE.

I promise you with 100% certainty that if you do this, you will turn your trading career around BIG TIME!

So what are you going to do with this new found information?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy huge problem.gif Size: 23 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #483
  • Mar 16, 2009 4:51am Mar 16, 2009 4:51am
Quoting reddog19
I'm not crash hot on that sought of stuff but would be more than willing to give a hand.

Do you mean something like that index on James16 that has links to relevant posts under a series of major headings?

Or are you contemplating a full blown word document? You would have to edit it fairly drastically otherwise it would end up huge.
Thanks but I was thinking full blown rather than links

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #484
  • Mar 16, 2009 5:02am Mar 16, 2009 5:02am
Thanks for the insight ito the USD/JPY trade Strat.

To be honest i'm still looking at how much i can make, rather than lose, so this is something i certainly need to work on.

Cheers
Dan
  • #485
  • Mar 16, 2009 5:07am Mar 16, 2009 5:07am
Quoting strat
I have finally made the time to answer this. Thank you to everyone who participated......
Great post, thank you! I have thought about it, read the other answers, tried to answer by typing and then canceling, thinking that the reason of my sup/res was not what you meant... and I was right, I am also guilty of looking at profit potential instead of risk... I must learn this
  • #486
  • Mar 16, 2009 5:29am Mar 16, 2009 5:29am
Hi Strat,

I don't see the large SL as a huge problem or a problem at all.
I only risk 1% of my account size on any trade and manage position size accordingly. Was the large SL the only problem you see?
Usually with a hammer bar (a good one anyway) don’t we look for a large lower shadow, doesn't this mean we have a large SL?
When you are plotting your support resistance lines do you start on the weekly and then work down to the daily?

I look forward to your response.
Thanks for all the effort your putting in to help us learn your materials.




Quoting strat
I have finally made the time to answer this. Thank you to everyone who participated - at least you had a go - not like the lurkers and guys in the background who think they know it all - you know who you are!

Attached is a later chart so let's get into it. I wrote something like I hope everyone had their sell stop in place at 97.52 I think it was. Then I later wrote that there was a HUGE PROBLEM with it.

So let us start there.
The first thing, after identifying a trade MUST ALWAYS BE - WHAT IS MY RISK? Remember my earlier posts about...
  • #487
  • Mar 16, 2009 6:22am Mar 16, 2009 6:22am
My first thought when I see a trade setup is how much could I possibly lose placing a logical stop-loss at the nearest swing or S/R level. This is basically Risk-to-Reward analysis and should be a major part of every trader's money management system.

A trader should take trades that offer better than 1R and never take a trade that offers less. Trades that offer less than 1R are what will make you go broke in the long run. You can't be 100% accurate in trading - the expectation of winning on every trade is lost to fantasy. So it stands to reason that if you allow those losers to outweigh your winners, you're going to be sinking like a rock.

So that's that spiel. Now for my upcoming trade outlook:

EUR/USD - I had a buy order in overnight that got filled at 1.2945, above the last swing high. Breakout above the down channel's upper TL. 1.2850 turned from resistance to support. Targeting 1.3400.

GBP/USD - Thought this would go back down after we stopped at 1.4030 - confluence of big resistance level and the upper channel's TL. I had a sell stop in at 1.3915 but I look this morning and see price has flown up to 1.4200. Suffice to say, that order was cancelled. There still is a higher TL around the 1.4300 level which might turn this back down. From what I remember of my brief glance at the chart this morning, there wasn't much volume supporting a move of this magnitude.

AUD/USD - Still going strong.

USD/CAN - Ascending triangle nearing its apex. Either we break above 1.3000 soon or drop below the lower trend line. We're getting close to the lower TL again so let's see what happens.
  • #488
  • Mar 16, 2009 7:29am Mar 16, 2009 7:29am
Nice post you rock n roller.Such fibonnaci in the air at the moment.I agree 100%
Im at an interesting place at the moment with my trading and a mail from James 16 about taking profit when you have a good size account brought this up over the weekend in my head.Less is more...At the moment i have a three pronged attack and i TP B/E let run as i see fit but i KNOW it will go 1st target or im not even putting 1 quid on the thing.Now that first bit is the dead cert and its over quick.Now here is the mind game.I may have a daily stop of 350 which is one of the larger and a 1st target of 50 and a second of 100 but my lot size is coming out about 4 standard so the REAL value is good and the whole plan is proven and solid BUT and its a big but if im 100% sure of first target why am i not loading my canons to that potential?
If i take a moment i realise i have a jewel in my hand,before i was after 70% of the market swing which i do and i get x but if i focus on the 10% of the move im 100% certan of i will get more for less.Same entry,same risk different take profit stratergy less time in the trade.Capitalise on what you do know, locked off on the bits your not so sure, not even bothered if theres any doubt.I dont need 10000 of pips anymore over days of managment to get REAL profits i need one or two good set ups a month whats a good set up? one where you Know you can win.What is risk?how many times your wrong so how often is that i ask myself well in the last 5 months ive had about 15 trades win and one loss and a couple of Evens but applying this new ethos those Even would have been booked winners......anyway sometimes you gotta think lateral thats what your post about stops inspired in me.Any thoughts on this would be nice....g
  • #489
  • Mar 16, 2009 7:39am Mar 16, 2009 7:39am
Quoting strat

So back to this trade. If you had a sell stop in place below the 97.52 support line, say 97.42, did you measure your RISK? Where did your SL go on such a move? If you did it correctly, your SL should have gone ABOVE THE SWING HIGH at say 99.23. That is a 181 pip SL! That is HUGE!

If you did know where to put your SL then you are back at the beginning of this post because it is another HUGE SL

Strat
Thanks for insight Strat, but how can one not have a huge stop loss?

It is the Daily charts that you're trading off after all.
  • #490
  • Mar 16, 2009 7:40am Mar 16, 2009 7:40am
EUR/JPY..... how far can you go
There's a POT of GOLD at the END of the RAINBOW!!
  • #491
  • Mar 16, 2009 8:20am Mar 16, 2009 8:20am
Quoting strat
Now for those who are going to tell me they dropped down to H4 to identify a smaller SL, then at that point, they were no longer trading the Daily. You cannot trade a time frame with a shorter time frame's S&R. There are 6 H4 price bars within one Daily price bar and if you set a SL from H4 then it would be hit within that Daily price bar.

Rock n Roll,
Strat

So true.... If only I realized that a few blown accounts ago. I have learned to go UP if s/r is uncertain on t/f you trade. Never down. But then again if it's uncertain, does that fit in your plan?

Love the thread, One nugget at a time
  • #492
  • Mar 16, 2009 9:21am Mar 16, 2009 9:21am
[quote=hansnl;2605545]
Quoting 4xWheels
My title may be misleading, but my thought is about time. I just got carried back, and away.


Anyway, can I say that Oanda has this feature that lets you set your charts to any time zone? Try and play with it and I don't suppose you'll be surprised to see big differences in the patterns. Which to choose?


Thanks I,didn't know that future I only use the buy/sell buttons on my Oanda account.
Great for testing where a 200 pip stoploss cost me 5 euro!!

A+

hans..
Hans,

Please do us a favour and go and edit your charts so that they are small. When you save them from MT4, save as ACTIVE CHART (AS IS) - they are too large and are causing format problems. Thank you.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #493
  • Mar 16, 2009 9:30am Mar 16, 2009 9:30am
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Strat,

I don't see the large SL as a huge problem or a problem at all.
I only risk 1% of my account size on any trade and manage position size accordingly. Was the large SL the only problem you see?
Usually with a hammer bar (a good one anyway) don’t we look for a large lower shadow, doesn't this mean we have a large SL?
When you are plotting your support resistance lines do you start on the weekly and then work down to the daily?...
If the SL is within your MM then that is good as long as you think LOSS before profit. Don't hide behind a fat account unless you are focusing on LOSING.

A good hammer should have a long tail taking out all the stops below and should bounce off major support. By definition, it will always have a big SL.

S&R will be covered soon so please kindly sit tight. Thank you.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #494
  • Mar 16, 2009 9:38am Mar 16, 2009 9:38am
Quoting BWise
Thanks for insight Strat, but how can one not have a huge stop loss?

It is the Daily charts that you're trading off after all.
It is not always a huge stop loss, If you get in after an IB or small doji, then it's usually a small SL. It is something you have NO CONTROL over so don't worry or think about it. When it happens, either you have a sufficient account to support the SL or not and then you don't trade it - SIMPLE

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #495
  • Mar 16, 2009 9:47am Mar 16, 2009 9:47am
Quoting Baba G
Nice post you rock n roller.Such fibonnaci in the air at the moment.I agree 100%
Im at an interesting place at the moment with my trading and a mail from James 16 about taking profit when you have a good size account brought this up over the weekend in my head.Less is more...At the moment i have a three pronged attack and i TP B/E let run as i see fit but i KNOW it will go 1st target or im not even putting 1 quid on the thing.Now that first bit is the dead cert and its over quick.Now here is the mind game.I may have a daily stop of 350 which is...
Hey pizza man,

I don't practice what I preach!

I have tried it always (said the actress to the Bishop) - multiple small lots or bigger single lots. Because I'm conservative with my trades (low risk), they have a high winning % so when I put on multiple lots and TP I kick myself because if I had gone with one biggie, I would be in fat city. It all depends on your style, method and risk aversion.

Please do us a favour and put spaces in your post - I can't see the wood for the trees! Or maybe it's having to do things I don't want to entertain customers that's blinding me!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #496
  • Mar 16, 2009 9:49am Mar 16, 2009 9:49am
Quoting haribon2008
EUR/JPY..... how far can you go
Remember Dr. Joe - "it keeps on going up till it stops going up".

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #497
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:11am Mar 16, 2009 11:11am
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
[quote=strat;2606235]
Quoting hansnl

Hans,

Please do us a favour and go and edit your charts so that they are small. When you save them from MT4, save as ACTIVE CHART (AS IS) - they are too large and are causing format problems. Thank you.

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Done! but it still big in your post?
  • #498
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:43am Mar 16, 2009 11:43am
Inside bar on USD/JPY. Possible exhaustion? Entry Short seems good below 97.40, which is below the 20 and below the low of the inside bar. Stops would go at around 98.80, which is above the last swing high. Targets are first support at 97.00, and then support at 96.20ish. Risk/reward on the first target is not especially great, but if it breaks it drop much further.

http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/4404/usdjpy.gif

The bar today will probably close like a second inside bar to the candle two previous.
Bang.
  • #499
  • Mar 16, 2009 12:31pm Mar 16, 2009 12:31pm
cad jpy long,counter trend....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #500
  • Mar 16, 2009 12:35pm Mar 16, 2009 12:35pm
cad jpy weekly
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