Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

It doesn't look as attractive on the weekly as its not a swing high or low. I don't trade the weekly though as im just getting up to speed with the daily bars.

My daily feed,doing this might not be cool on this thread,Strat?it is an educational thread.Charts take up alot of space.......

Interesting i see a pin,Inside bar combo with monthly level break but a bit higher........I had the pin on thurs night close but shes right into support there till about the weekly engagment which is what im interested in really.Well i got no bar right now so i dont have to decide but a little higher and i will find it hard not to get the ticket locked in......Anymore for anymore on this?

So you're looking for a break to the upside of the monthly inside bar, not far above the 141 mark?

well with a weekly pin and the ib before it on my feed IS the monthly break!

so if im gonna start going counter trend thats a good place to start....but i want a daily at that level or a time frame which strat dont like but thats higher than 1 but not a daily lol

As you can see cause id be in "take no prisoners" mode if i had of taken thurs pin(on my feed) id be even as she hit the support i knew she would have so id have sweated for nothing when really that other level is the one.

I think i just made up my mind thank dude!!!!

And a bit of price action that makes me feel warm and snuggly

The plot thickens

i remember selling that triple hi low close on trend,i love price action and the dbhlc but the best was the break of the lows with a sexy little ib wow wow wow

Hi Strat, It was never my idea to use that info for trading but just to show the influence of time on candle shapes.
That beautiful end of day or end of week candle in Europe session can be an don't touch it candle on the end of the US session.

And when the shape of the candle becomes important in our framework we should realise that the base of our decision is not really stable.

I don't know , have to think about it , the 3 main money markets looking to me like a triple expansion steam engine , something must be constant we only have to find out what.

I'm really looking forward to your S/R revelations.

All the weekly charts I've practiced on seem to end up with too many lines. I'm well into the J16 thread, but I am still looking for a way to filter out some of my S/R lines.

After watching some of the guest videos at "James16 Group", they seem to generally restrict their S/R lines to areas visible on the immediate chart.

Thanks for this great thread.

[quote=Baba G;2603164] Trading is educated ‘betting’ not mathematical formulas.

Strat

Sorry I posted hourly and 4hourly trades ...
Here is a peace little offering ...

Inserted Video

Nicola

Here is my daily chart (minus pivots and other crap).
With the G20 meeting I did not want to hold my trade on the weekend but I like this up more and would like to get back in ...
Would love it if we could break the BOSS 20!

AUDUSD
BOSS
Bullish bar climbing out of a 4th bottom which is also a higher low. Boss 20 at 0.6800 will cause a reaction but it's looking like it at least wants to give 0.7200 a go

Daily
Quadruple bottom on it's way to test recent highs. Minor resistance at 0.6670 might cause a wobble (profit taking). We have 3 strong closes above the 20 and 2 strong closes above the 50 - a bullish sign. All cycles are topping. Momentum turned bullish on March 5th. Prices are now at the critical 61.8% retrace. Start looking for places to go long.
All the signs are here for the next run up but we are still fighting the BOSS.

CHFJPY
BOSS
Rejected by resistance at 84.75 and resting on support at 81.25. Looks like an attempt at a swing high

Daily
Friday IB trapped between minor resistance and major support. Price closed below 20 but resting at critical 61.8% retrace. Needs to clear this support to go down to 80.79, the next major support, 50% retrace AND base trend line

EURGBP
BOSS
Now at minor resistance at psycho 0.9300 on it's way to major resistance at 0.9465

Daily
Rejected by minor resistance at psycho 0.9300 with all cycles topping. Look for fall to minor support at 0.9120 at least and probably to 0.9050, the next minor support, trend line from the highs AND 50% retrace.
The BOSS is now back in control with the Daily making higher highs and lows confirmed by the 20/50 cross.

EURJPY
BOSS
Banging it's head against major resistance at 126.60 with next major resistance breathing down on it at psycho 128.00. Maybe next week will thow out the reversal candle we are looking for.

Daily
My data shows a feeble attempt at a shooting star at major resistance but since volume does not support a reversal, I'm just watching. Plenty of support at 124.70 with major support at 123.70 Long term cycles are topping with short cycle waiting to complete. This could waffle around at the top before letting go.

EURUSD
BOSS
Bullish candle straight off swing low runs straight into major resistance at 1.2950 - so what's new? Nothing except we are starting to run out of the consolidation resistance. The BOSS has moved into it's bullish cycle and may make a run at next major resistance at 1.3075 or the 20 at 1.3175. This is now all confirmed with the swing low on March 6th BUT still in a down trend.

Daily
My data shows a small range doji on pretty good volume telling us that the buyers ran out of steam but the sellers were not prepared to put their money on the line - yet? This is unusual because the sellers were selling every rally prior to this. We have a double top at major resistance at 1.2950 with all cycles topping AND momentum went bullish on March 3rd. Prices have closed above 20 AND 50. Looks like a retrace down to 1.2760 to 1.2740ish which is the 38.2% retrace. Technically still in a downtrend but fighting like hell to get out of it.
Start looking for places to go long but keep in mind we are still fighting the BOSS.

GBPCHF
BOSS
Trapped between major support and resistance in downward momentum

Daily
Everything is at resistance of all types - minor, major, down trend line from the highs AND the base trend line which WAS our previous support. Let me see if I can figure what this is trying to tell us......

GBPJPY
BOSS
Double top swing high in place, hanging man type bar but not in correct location, internal cycles fighting themselves, heavy resistance and 20 above but bounced off major support at 131.50 Needs to resolve its internal problems before going on it's merry way.

Daily
Banging it's head against minor resistance at 137.30ish BUT the first close above the 20 -BUT it's not a strong close and volume doesn't support a sustained move so look for a bar to put in a swing high and short off that

GBPUSD
BOSS
Trapped between major resistance at 1.4220ish and major support at 1.3650

Daily
On my data, this is a picture of S&R working at it's finest
Price is rejected by major resistance at 1.4050 smack bang on 61.8% fib retrace when it launched from support at 1.3900. The 20 is hovering above just in case it gets any lofty ideas. The close is as weak as Butwiper beer confirmed by volume which doesn't like much of a move higher. Now look at the trend lines! It broke through the base trend line on March 9 and she's just gone back up to give us another kiss - called a re-test.
You must keep your trend lines in place as they are providing you with FUTURE support and resistance.
My cycles are all screwed up (yes Dr. Joe) but momentum is still accelerating down
Maybe the Friday bar (not a shooting star on my data) will be the swing high but if not look for a swing high to go short after.

USDCAD
BOSS
Still fighting it's way through all this overhead resistance but it has made it's intentions clear

Daily
Price supported by major resistance AND 20 at psycho 1.2700. Might just drop to minor support at 1.2620 or do a re-test of the trend line on the highs before having another go at all that messy resistance

USDCHF
BOSS
Put in a high at minor resistance at psycho 1.1900. Still too messy to get a clear picture

Daily
Rejected by minor resistance at psycho 1.1900 Not interested in this until that huge bar resolves itself. For what it's worth, Momentum has turned around and gone bullish again!

USDJPY
BOSS
Put in a hanging man after a doji confirmed by volume both rejected by 5 layers of resistance. Now let me get out the manual and see if I can figure out what this is telling us......

Daily
Hasn't given up the long fight - yet, as the 20 said "here let me hold you up for a while longer". There is more overhead resistance than there is support so we need to see some sort of exhaustion/blow off bar to show us the way

Sorry if this is not all cohesive as I'm struggling with a huge hangover from last night's meeting with customer execs.

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Try drawing trend lines from the BODIES of the candles rather than from the tails and wicks. You should also draw in the upper trend line. See if it tells you anything different.

Try not to form opinions Nicola, just let the prices show you the way.

Think you would also see price much clearer if you removed that black 7 or whatever it is moving average. It serves no use other than to tell you what happened - it has absolutely no use in telling you what to expect next - only price action can tell you that.

Show me the way - now who sang that?

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Wow, that guy is almost as good as me - who is he?

That brought tears to my eyes and a lump in my throat (honestly) - I don't have that video so thanks - I'm coming over to Toronto to give you a big kiss for that!

It makes my penance for our Mother of All parties to celebrate the 50th Anniversary of the Day The Music Died on February 3rd this year all seem worthwhile!

Rock n Roll,
Strat

I found a few little mistakes I am sure you threw in there on purpose...

EUR/JPY - Support should be more like 124.40, not 124.70. The next support at 123.70 is fine.

EUR/USD - The last swing low is on March 4th, definitely not on March 6th. Also, 1.2750 corresponds with the 50% retrace, not the 38.2%.

GBP/USD - When price rebounded from 1.3900, it banged up on the 50% retrace, not the 61.8%. Also, the trendline was broken by a massive BEOB on March 9th.

USD/CAD - 1.2650 or 70ish seems like a more prominent support than the candle low at 1.2620. This is not a mistake, just my own opinion.

USD/JPY - Your trader's manual should say wait for a confirmation candle or a break of the candle low previous to enter short. Right? This would be on
BOSS, but an exhaustion candle on the daily would provide a good entry.

I think there are still more mistakes in there, but I have to run for the night.

BOSS 20 is the 20 period sma, right? I searched this thread but just want to make sure.

http://i43.tinypic.com/znv3hx.gif

Yes, but it is a 20 EMA not SMA

Sorry - should have added, to show the weekly 20ema on your daily chart you need to put in a 100EMA and make it a different colour to the 20ema to differentiate (mine is thicker and darker)
And Strats charts also show the daily and weekly 50 SMA's. To show the weekly 50 SMA on your daily chart you need to add the 250 SMA and again make it a slightly different or thicker colour.
Well that is what I do anyway.
Hope that makes sense!
Nicola

Thanks alot !

... hoping for that, my E/J Long still online, but +120pips in the bag now

No problem, pizza man, keep posting!

Rock n Roll,
Strat