Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

#401
Mar 14, 2009 4:13am Mar 14, 2009 4:13am

Baba G
Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Hors non numero nisi servitas | 795 Posts

[quote=mea;2602918]SORRY..CAN'T DISAGREE WITH YOU MORE:

I can define trading as a game of chance and be comfortable in that definition only if
the odds are in my favour.
That is not certainty, it is probability.

FX has the same chances like ROULETTE does..... about 50% not counting the speads!
One has to find a way to be on the right 50%

FX...............UP/DOWN
Roulette.......RED/BLACK

for both games trader or gamers are looking to find the edge!

FX is about probability like it is e.g. Roulette, no certainty on both games!

But it is a certain a 60year old eeven he feels like will only have a probable chance to be with a 18 year old if he has enough money!

rockYroll!
BABA G SAYS:
You are wrong in a way that only expirence in the markets can prove.I bet my whole account you have never won.
Dont worry pull up a chair and open your mind.Or if your so sure you know your right prove it.Much fear i sense in you its ok you always fear what you dont know...

#402
Mar 14, 2009 7:21am Mar 14, 2009 7:21am

elitejets
Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 715 Posts

Quoting TheArcher

Disliked

Hi !
would be very happy is someone , or Nicola herself , could re-upload "pin bars-introduction.pdf" (refer post 303)... i can't download the .pdf , as it says .."could not parse the .pdf "
thank you !

Ignored

Attached
Or you could look here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/192645/Pin-Bars-Introduction

Attached File(s)

Pinbars-introduction.pdf 179 KB | 1,229 downloads

#403
Mar 14, 2009 7:54am Mar 14, 2009 7:54am

cesare76fx
| Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 555 Posts

Quoting mea

Disliked

SORRY..CAN'T DISAGREE WITH YOU MORE:

[font=Arial][size=3][font=Arial][size=3]
I can define trading as a game of chance and be comfortable in that definition only if
the odds are in my favour.
That is not certainty, it is probability.

FX has the same chances like ROULETTE does..... about 50% not counting the speads!
One has to find a way to be on the right 50%

FX...............UP/DOWN
Roulette.......RED/BLACK

for both games trader or gamers are looking to find the edge!

FX is about probability like it is e.g. Roulette, no...

Ignored

I still wonder why gamblers consider trading. To be precise, trading has a spread, roulettes has at least one zero, sometime also a double zero.
Trading is even more difficult than gambling, in gambling, your profit potential is fixed per bet and your loss is also fixed, in trading it is all
up to you, you can call it out early and leave it running.... completely a different story. Not to mention the gambler's addiction, which is deteriorating to traders, the fact the gamblers take revenge, go all in etc etc no comparison, at all. I actually find it offensive, as a trader I don't play against the house, good luck with doing that.

#404
Mar 14, 2009 8:00am Mar 14, 2009 8:00am

mea
| Additional Username | Joined Mar 2009 | 117 Posts

[quote=Baba G;2603164]

Quoting mea

Disliked

SORRY..CAN'T DISAGREE WITH YOU MORE:

[font=Arial][size=3]I can define trading as a game of chance and be comfortable in that definition only if
the odds are in my favour.
That is not certainty, it is probability.

FX has the same chances like ROULETTE does..... about 50% not counting the speads!
[size=3][font=Arial]One has to find a way to be on the right...

Ignored

Hope you have a big account...lol

#405
Mar 14, 2009 9:20am Mar 14, 2009 9:20am

Strat
Joined Feb 2009 | Status: 15 YEAR PASR THREAD Senior Member | 12,379 Posts

As I’ve posted before, one of the benefits for me in starting this thread is that of unlocking the annals (I almost wrote “anus”) of my mind to re-call the wealth of trading experiences and knowledge I have accumulated in my quest to trade for a living.

The recent posts on moving averages and bank traders have hit my “Memory Recall” button on the Merchant Banker experience I had back in 1996/97.

When I was “working” for a living, I had many overseas projects and one of them was for a large US Engineering & Construction company building the grass roots refinery for Reliance in Jamnagar, India. We were based in Mumbai (Bombay) for almost a year, living out of the Oberoi Hotel and on this occasion, our son, Ryan, was visiting with us for a couple of weeks.

Ryan is a very friendly character and makes friends real easy and one night, long after me and the trouble and strife had gone to bed, there is a telephone call, “Hey, Dad, you gotta come down to the bar quick!” I looked at the clock and it’s after 11:15pm. “What the hell for? it’s too late” was my reply. “There’s this guy that works for Hong Kong something banks that trades millions of dollars in futures”, Ryan said. Well I was out of bed and into the bar quicker than a hooker can drop her drawers!

Ryan introduced me to what’s his name (I can’t remember his name) and we shook hands. Sweaty hands and a handshake like that of a vicar or limp fish didn’t go well with me. He was English, in his early thirties, over cocky, over arrogant, over good looking and over paid and spoke very posh like they do with plums in their mouth. “Bastard”, I thought as he gave me his card. “Something something, Merchant Banker with Hong Kong something Bank”, I read on his card. In my rush to get down there, I had left everything in the room and couldn’t give him my card, so I told him I was a Project Manager working on the Reliance refinery.

Since this was about as much interest to him as the flight of the lesser spotted bumble bee, I thought this is going to be a short meeting so I just jumped in and asked him what a “Merchant Banker” does. Big mistake! He told us he traded millions of dollars at a time, made millions of dollars of profit for the bank and himself, had a penthouse suite over looking Hong Kong harbour, lived the life of the rich and famous and portrayed a “royalty” of Hong Kong image. When he eventually paused in his obvious attempt to intimidate me, I did my “How do you do it then?” routine. Well, stumbling for words took the wind out of his sails and we were back on a level playing field again.

“Martini and vodka”, he said when I got the waiter over to get our drinks. Ryan and I ordered our usual pints of beer as real men do. I told him I also traded futures and that so far, I had done nothing but lose. “You’ll never win,” he said, “we eat private traders for breakfast and spit them out in bits after”, he said in his best Prince Charles accent. Now I’m thinking “OK, smart arse, I don’t need to be told that by you” . So, in my usual blunt and tactless way, I said “OK, clever clogs, tell me how you do it?”. “Can’t do that old chap, it’s proprietary, a bank secret!”. My one word answer of “BOLLOCKS!” seemed to un – nerve him and Ryan looked at me as if to say “You won’t get anything out of him talking like that!”. He waffled around for ages about how good he was, the women he could get and the money he made, but nothing on how he ACTUALLY did it. I quickly realized that I had to work on him like the women my mate and I would chase on our “bachelor” Friday nights out – lace them with liquor before moving in for the “kill”. The waiter brought another round and Ryan realized my game plan and joined with me to triple team him.

After several rounds of drinks and us “buttering him up” telling him how good he was, he started to laugh and loosen up. “Game on”, I thought. I told him I had lost a ton of money the previous year on the Yen (another horror story to be revealed later) and he said he and his bank made millions and millions on that (yes, I thought, with my thousands as well). I told him I was using the Stochastics and MACD for my signals but so far I couldn’t make money with them. “What do you guys use?” I asked. Then he told us the REAL story!

He was one of 20 traders working for his bank and he worked in the futures section trading the deutsche mark and US$. (Only two currencies!) There were other traders who traded two currencies each of the other currencies. It was an open office with each trader having his own cubicle and computer with monitors all around the office. He had real time charts with a monitor for each currency and he spent his day reading reports on the economies of the countries for the currencies he traded. He would attend weekly internal meetings where each Head Trader would discuss the futures and commodities outlook for his section.

When it came to actually trading, he would wait for his computer to sound an alert, at which point, he would drop everything and look at what the alert was for. The bank’s software on currencies (not sure about the other futures and commodities but suspect it was the same) was programmed to trigger an alert at each cross of a 10, 20, 55 moving average. He would then see which cross was triggered, and get out his manual which told him how many $millions were allowed to be traded on that particular cross. Based on what his current exposure was (risk), he would decide how many millions to trade and THEN, take it to his Section Head or Head Trader. It was the Head Trader who made all the decisions! He would adjust the $value or just approve it as it was. The Head Trader then told the Merchant Banker to place the order for $X millions at which point, the Merchant Banker wrote up the paperwork and sent it on to their trader in the Pit. Trading over until the next alert!

When asked how they knew when to take profits he said it was usually when alerts triggered. When asked about the cross back down in a whip saw like situation he said it was no different to any other alarm. Just take the cross and the situation to the Head Trader who would review it and make a decision.

When asked about the impact of loading and unloading such high $ amounts on to the market at one time he said it wasn’t done all in one block. The Pit Trader had a system for spreading the orders such that the market (but not the other Pit Traders) could not see what they were doing.

When it finally came to profit taking, he would get his alert and take it to his Head Trader who would make the decision and instruct the Merchant Banker to close the orders. Again, he would issue the paperwork and send it to the Pit who would gradually unload it in the same manner as before.

As regards education and training in technical analysis, this Merchant Banker had an economics degree and no education in technical analysis at all other than what he had picked up by working for his bank. When asked why he didn’t have any, his cocky, arrogant, drunken response was “Why, I don’t need any, I can make millions doing what I do without it”.

When asked what qualifications a Head Trader needed he said it was “Just five years working for the bank as a Merchant Banker!”.

Having had my way with him, I couldn’t wait to get him out of my sight so the waiter brought the bill over, left it on the table, at which point Ryan and I stood up to leave. “Hey, aren’t you getting the bill?”, stumbled out of his mouth. “F**k off,” I said, “With all the thousands you stole from me, you can pay it!”

I guess this is the only time I beat a Merchant Banker!

Maybe now you will understand my dislike for Merchant Wankers!

As an epilogue, Ryan saw him the next day and said he looked “very poorly”. He should have drunk beer like real men!

And so began my not so profitable but very frustrating experience in moving average cross over systems

Rock n Roll,
Strat