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  • #381
  • Mar 13, 2009 6:27am Mar 13, 2009 6:27am
Hi Nicola

My comments FWIW

just looking at the progress of your 1 hr CAD trade - I agree that the price action on the 9.00 pin bar (GMT) looks attractive for going long, but you are going long into the MAs and WP/DP and 50% fib retrace, and I would expect price to stall there

Thanks for posting the links to all that material - you are accumulating trading knowledge at an astounding rate!
  • #382
  • Edited 7:50am Mar 13, 2009 6:40am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting NKE
Hi Nicola

My comments FWIW

just looking at the progress of your 1 hr CAD trade - I agree that the price action on the 9.00 pin bar (GMT) looks attractive for going long, but you are going long into the MAs and WP/DP and 50% fib retrace, and I would expect price to stall there

Thanks for posting the links to all that material - you are accumulating trading knowledge at an astounding rate!
Agreeing with you. USD/CAD has some VERY strong resistance at 1.3000 that it needs to break above before I consider buying the pair. A shorter time frame scalp might be successful, but that's not really what we're about here in this thread.

I did go long AUD/USD yesterday. Entry at .6530 with a first target at .6730.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #383
  • Mar 13, 2009 7:45am Mar 13, 2009 7:45am
Banked half at the weekly pivot (20ma) and then it tanked and I was stopped out.
Not my best idea of the day, obviously!
  • #384
  • Mar 13, 2009 8:00am Mar 13, 2009 8:00am
Yes
I was considering shorting it from the WP and MAs, but got distracted by domestic matters - so I missed it - did not expect quite such a violent reversal though
  • #385
  • Mar 13, 2009 8:30am Mar 13, 2009 8:30am
This might work for you.


Quoting elitejets
Yes. I will make myself a little excel calculator this weekend ...
Thanks
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls DayTradingTheoretical.xls   37 KB | 1,318 downloads
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #386
  • Mar 13, 2009 9:45am Mar 13, 2009 9:45am
Billser,
You are lovely! more time to study now!
have a great weekend everyone.
Nicola

Quoting Billser
This might work for you.
  • #387
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:47pm Mar 13, 2009 3:47pm
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
Quoting elitejets
Yes. I will make myself a little excel calculator this weekend ...
Thanks
Hi Nic try this excel sheet one as well, and play with the settings of risico %, pip value and weekly pip score.

Because its not the money but the pips that count!

Nice weekend,

Hans..
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls forexcalc.xls   75 KB | 942 downloads
  • #388
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:22pm Mar 13, 2009 4:22pm
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
someone on this tread mentioned the difference in time between the brokers we use.
witch has his effect on the candles shape, shooting stars, hammers, doi's , and what ever is invented to guide us trough the woods.

I would be interested if somebody from the west coast USA and somebody from Down Under can post the following MT4 charts from GBP/USD

minimal one full local day 1 H, Daily and Weekly chart.

I myself use a GMT chart from ODL

could be a eye opener for candle shape end of day / week ?

I will post mine charts later when my broker day has ended

Salut,

Hans..

(fan of nassim )
  • #389
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:09pm Mar 13, 2009 5:09pm
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
http://i42.tinypic.com/b4f0uf.jpg
http://i39.tinypic.com/302a0p0.jpg
http://i44.tinypic.com/69djjt.jpg
  • #390
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:48pm Mar 13, 2009 5:48pm
Hi strat,
firstly thanks for starting what is developing into a great thread, very informative.
secondly one of these days you need to give us a look at your relic 59 strat, cool guitar man, one day!!!
Thirdly,
i was looking thru some charts, the usd/jpy stood out to me, i know it is in a down trend, and at the moment it is in what looks to be a retracement/pullback, but then again it may be changing, who knows!! time will tell, looking at the chart my impression is (please feel free to jump in at any time), it is trying to go higher, and i am thinking that if we get a close above 99.50 i would consider a long entry, looking to go to 103 to start?

I would love anyone to throw there 2 bobs worth in, it si the way to learn.

cheers
Geoff
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  • #391
  • Mar 13, 2009 6:04pm Mar 13, 2009 6:04pm
Hi guys and gals,
Ace thread and I can confirm that most indicators are rubbish - they show past action. I use the MACD on the daily/wkly for divergance - only as an indication of a move, then PA to get into the direction of the expected move.

Well done Strat for an excellent thread and thanks Nic for pointing me here!!

I'm bearish on usdyen - currency intervention by the BoJ. They need the rate at around 100.00 (usdyen) to try and stoke exports again.

When you look at the monthly chart is just shows a bear flag with this being only wave 2 of the current down waves.

Then again, turn your PC monitor upside down , look at the charts; we have a H&S pattern building that could see the next shoulder rise to 110 level (as Dan (pimp) said his banker mates were predicting in the city).
So we could see a rise to 110 top form the LH shoulder then back to 97 and then back to the neck line and up.

USDyen is massivley correlated to bond yields too. Look at spreads between the US 2/10 yr bonds and the plot usdyen against a graph of those spreads.

I'll post a bit more on this over the weeknd. A new book out this year by CMC Market's currency analysist Ashraf Laidi is well worth a read for the funny mentals.

Good trading all; once again thanks Nic!
Grim
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #392
  • Mar 13, 2009 8:05pm Mar 13, 2009 8:05pm
Quoting strat
Hello mea,



More important - THIS IS NOT A GAME - this is a very serious business.
Treat it like a game and you will lose and then lose again and continue to lose forever after that.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
SORRY..CAN'T DISAGREE WITH YOU MORE:

I can define trading as a game of chance and be comfortable in that definition only if
the odds are in my favour.
That is not certainty, it is probability.


FX has the same chances like ROULETTE does..... about 50% not counting the speads!
One has to find a way to be on the right 50%

FX...............UP/DOWN
Roulette.......RED/BLACK

for both games trader or gamers are looking to find the edge!

FX is about probability like it is e.g. Roulette, no certainty on both games!

But it is a certain a 60year old eeven he feels like will only have a probable chance to be with a 18 year old if he has enough money!

rockYroll!

******
  • #393
  • Mar 13, 2009 9:03pm Mar 13, 2009 9:03pm
Quoting NKE
Hi Strat
Nicola recommended that I take a look at your thread - interesting material
In an earlier post you mentioned that if anyone has further information on timing....I have spent some time with Dynamic Trader, created by Robert Miner who applies fib to time as well as price
and also a lot of time on Steve Copan's market matrix, which is how I came across Dynamic Trader. Steve has taken the original delta concept and incorporated elliot and fibs to produce a methodology that forecasts future turning points in both time and price. To be honest,...
Copan's Market Matrix is ok but it's a lot of working all of the Delta stuff in addition to doing the fib stuff.

Fib time does work, but it helps to simplify it a bit and only throw up 1 or 2 series of numbers and give enough "history" to check against. IE let the first few time lines were hits, so this cycle series is good. OR maybe every time line is only off by 1 or 2 bars, so I should give this next one a 1 or 2 bars room.

I did a series of blog articles for Akuma99's website that goes into some basic ways to add time as an indicator to naked charts. ie chart patterns.

http://beginnertrader.com/blog/techn...ed-time-part-1
  • #394
  • Mar 13, 2009 9:23pm Mar 13, 2009 9:23pm
Quoting strat
I bet that caught your attention!

I have never been able to do this so when I saw "How to identify a trend before it starts" in the promotional materials sent to me by email a couple of weeks ago, it got my attention.

The wheels of my mechanical logic started turning. "How to see something that isn't there!" Impossible is my first reaction but then I go back to physics which tells me, "Energy can neither be created nor destroyed only transposed from one form to another".

Does this mean that there is something in price and time out there...
Great thread! I too started out with paper charts and updating them by hand. Only technical tools I had were a straight edge and pencil looking for chart patterns and trend lines. Like most people, got caught up in using every squiggly line out there and designing some of my own. Now I'm back to the straight edge, but I've added the protractor, compass, and square. In other words, I got into Gann.

In my opinion, the biggest complement to "naked" trading is adding time. It can be as simple as fib bar counts or static cycles or as complicated as Gann Squares of whatever and multi-aspects of this to that.

For example, here's an easy one from 2/15. Price was approaching a time line but still above the trendline. I figured price would nail that trendline and no better spot than at the cycle line. Target is the upper trend line.

http://time-traders.com/blog/wp-cont..._08-feb-15.gif

http://time-traders.com/charts/tp_09%20Mar.%2013.gif

Obviously, the hard part would seem to be working out the cycles, but in imho, the hard part is trusting them. As long as you just aim for the safer entry areas and give a bar or two to let the market turn prove itself, "time" can end up being the best indicator there is. It doesn't have be complicated like some of the astro stuff. It can be a simple static cycle and wait for price to meet up with time at support/resistence ideally with price clearly rising into or falling into "time".
  • #395
  • Mar 14, 2009 1:03am Mar 14, 2009 1:03am
LONG RANGE TRADING...

ohh boy, those double resistance at monthly TF (Yr 2000, 2004) are really HUGE!!

though some good 200pips away, is the risk worth the reward??
There's a POT of GOLD at the END of the RAINBOW!!
  • #396
  • Mar 14, 2009 3:33am Mar 14, 2009 3:33am
Quoting AstonDan
After Cable closed at support yesterday following a neutral doji (my data), todays bar looks like closing above previous resistance (yellow dotted line). This to me would suggest a long play up to the 20EMA, which also happens to be at weekly pivot level.

However, we have had 4 days of increasing volume and i doubt we will see a further increase tomorrow (looking back through volume data - 5 days of increasing volume seems very rare).

Will it take a lot of volume to take price upto this level? Maybe not. Or is it better to SIT AND WAIT, see if...
Hello Dan,

Sorry for the late reply but I was in a hotel in the booneys without internet access.

Volume: Never use volume as something to base a trade on - only use it in conjunction with everything else. I use it to confirm price action at support and resistance and to gauge the strength of a move. I would never dream of trading on volume alone.

Volume is also not as simple as a price bar in the sense that increasing and decreasing volume indicates demand and supply so please be very careful using volume until we explain it in greater detail.

Dan, you need to re-think your S&R lines - they are not correct.

Hang on a minute - what is a weekly pivot?

Other than that, good thinking

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #397
  • Mar 14, 2009 3:35am Mar 14, 2009 3:35am
Quoting geoffrod
I do believe manfred Manns Earth Band!!!!
Thanks, I prefer their older stuff though - it goes with me.

Now show us what you've got!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #398
  • Mar 14, 2009 3:46am Mar 14, 2009 3:46am
Quoting elitejets
I find it interesting that todays price (on my feed) has closed almost to the pip at your 87.52 level!
Make that one more hit ...
I know no-one will believe this but one of the reasons for my not posting many charts or when I do, I do it without S&R lines, is that people will think I have a crystal ball or insider information as price almost always reacts to them.

There is absolutely no magic to it if you understand price action at support and resistance. There is a caveat though and that is, you have to find the CORRECT or ACTIVE S&R lines. I once saw a chart with so many so called S&R lines on it that price was bound to hit one of them eventually and how the guy could trade it, I had no idea.

There IS a right way and a wrong way to identify S&R which will all be revealed but until now, learn the PPZ from J16 - but don't learn it too well because we will do it another way - just learn the concept of what price does at S&R.

Thanks for bringing it to everyones' attention, kiddo

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #399
  • Mar 14, 2009 3:57am Mar 14, 2009 3:57am
Hi !

drawn in by the "stress free trading" concept .... and find this interesting ..

would like to spend the weekend reading up on this thread ...

would be very happy is someone , or Nicola herself , could re-upload "pin bars-introduction.pdf" (refer post 303)... i can't download the .pdf , as it says .."could not parse the .pdf "

thank you !
  • #400
  • Mar 14, 2009 3:59am Mar 14, 2009 3:59am
I think that was me...
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